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10-23-2017: Cotton Hurricane Disappointment

Cotton prices got a blip upward from anticipation of large-scale damage to crops as Hurricanes Harvey and Irma ripped through portions of the South where cotton is most grown. Somehow the crops survived, and the damage while not insignificant, is much less than anticipated. Also, favorable conditions from exporting nations like Australia and India have set world cotton prices lower on supply gluts or amounts of carryover in storage.

Cotton is another ICE future, where the ICE exchange has gobbled up many if not most of the futures most traded and effectively placed them off limits to non-professionals. The ICE gives absolutely lousy stale data quotes and charges an arm and a leg for worthless data. Doing the best we can with what we have to work with, we are not sure the exchange will even take the orders we recommend because they are so far off from the quotes provided by the exchange, which are a sure guarantee of a losing trade if one relies on them, particularly if one is dealing in options.

Our recent article on Cotton is in the Archives Section below.

10-21-2017: Some Commodities We Haven't Currently Reviewed

How do we pick a commodity for review? Here are technical strength or weakness ratings for 10/20 on the other major commodities not being currently being reviewed or traded on this site. To pick the commodity for our next review, Zenith will usually refer to such a list and pick the commodity which has one of either positive highest or negative lowest scores. Commodities currently under review on our list of about 18 on this site are not shown below. It's just a way of keeping track of what else is going with other commodities.

Dec  Cotton             -100
Dec  Gasoline            100
Dec  Corn                -96
Dec  Kansas Wheat        -88
Oct  Milk Cl III         -80
Dec  Coffee "C"          -72
Dec  Treasury Bonds      -64
Jan  Platinum            -64
Mar  Eurodollars         -40
Dec  Gold                -40
Dec  Australian Dollar    -8
__________________________

Dec  NASDAQ 100 Index     64
Nov  Soybeans             64
Dec  Oats                 56
Dec  U.S. Dollar Index    32
Dec  Silver               32
Jan  Feeder Cattle        24
Dec  Live Cattle          24
Dec  Soybean Meal         16
Dec  Euro Currency         8
The ratings are good only for date shown, and rapidly change each day, whereas we review the list only periodically. Once a commodity appears on our list of articles and is being currently traded, we consider its long-term direction has been established and trade consistently from that direction wtihout worrying about day-to-day changes. Granted, that's not how most other futures traders work nor how we trade stocks; but we have found it to be effective for commodities to trade that way.

Archive List

10-23-2017: December Cotton: Hurricane Damage Overstated

10-18-2017: December Crude Oil: Reacting to Temporary Factors

10-12-2017: November Ethanol: Environmental Protection DIminishes in U.S.

10-05-2017: December Cocoa: Cost of Production Rises

09-29-2017: March World Sugar: Brazil Floods Market

09-25-2017: November Heating Oil: Hurricane Effects

09-22-2017: December S&P 500 Index: Fed To Begin Rebalancing Its Portfolio

09-18-2017: December British Pound: Monetary Policy Meeting Hawkish

09-13-2017: December Japanese Yen: North Korean Threats Abate

09-09-2017: November Lumber: Anticipation of High Tariffs on Canadian Softwood

09-05-2017: December Lean Hogs: Over-Reaction to Herd Size and Slaugher Facilities Increase

08-29-2017: December Soybean OIl: Resists Other Falling Grain Products

08-24-2017: December Palladium: Supply Deficit

08-19-2017: September Mexican Peso: Bluster and No Change

08-14-2017: September Treasury Notes: N. Korea and U.S. Economic Stagnation

08-09-2017: September Natural Gas: Over Shale Production

08-05-2017: September Rough Rice: Chinese Imports Increase

07-28-2017: September Hi-Grade Copper: Chinese Demand Increases

07-25-2017: September Swiss Franc: Ineffective U.S. Congress

Performance

Updated once a week (usually on Saturdays) unless the preceding week had less than five trading days.
Buy and sell prices are averaged where multiple contracts are involved, which is why they may not fall on an exchange tick increment.

All Commodities Trades 10/02/2017 - 10/21/2017:

 # Commodity           BS    Buy   Sell   Last    Gain Intended  Rough   Group
                                                 (Loss)    Risk Percent

 4 Dec Ethanol          C 139.00 143.90 138.60 $  5,564  14,848  17.2% Energies
19 Dec Soybean Oil      C  33.41  34.33  34.16 $  9,918  14,934  11.5% Grains  
 6 Dec British Pound    L 131.59        132.13 $  1,845  14,963  23.0% Currency
 7 Dec Cocoa            C  20.36  21.51  21.26 $  7,840  14,980  11.5% Softs   
 5 Dec Crude Oil        C  51.07  52.44  51.84 $  6,700  14,950  17.2% Energies
10 Dec Lean Hogs        C  62.22  64.67  64.85 $  9,500  14,960   5.8% Meats   
 5 Dec Hi Grade Copper  C 312.50 324.70 316.50 $ 15,100  15,000   5.8% Copper  
 3 Dec Heating Oil #2   L 176.90        180.50 $  4,446  14,994  17.2% Energies
 5 Dec Japanese Yen     C  88.61  89.43  88.31 $  4,975  14,938  23.0% Currency
 4 Nov Lumber           L 422.10        427.50 $  2,256  14,960   5.8% Lumber  
 7 Dec Natural Gas Mini L  30.24         31.13 $  1,348  14,998   5.8% Nat Gas 
 1 Dec Palladium        C 919.50 989.80 969.80 $  7,000  14,990   5.8% Prec Met
 9 Dec Mexican Peso 500 C 518.70 526.30 521.20 $  3,150  14,940  23.0% Currency
10 Nov Rough Rice       L 118.97        120.70 $  3,160  14,980  11.5% Grains  
 8 Mar Sugar #11 World  C  13.96  14.37  14.00 $  3,434  14,874  11.5% Softs   
 4 Dec Swiss Franc      L 102.27        101.90 $ -1,970  14,950  23.0% Currency
 3 Dec S & P 500 E-Mini C 254.51 256.90 257.40 $  3,495  14,985   5.8% Stock Id
11 Dec Treasury Notes   C 125.30 124.78 124.83 $ -6,050   5,720   2.2% Finance 

            Adjustment for Open Positions: -($   11,085)
Prior to 10/16:
Other Gains/-Losses This Reporting Period:   $  124,313 ***
 *** For Contracts Closed or Rolled Forward  __________
 
Total for all Trades:                        $  183,854

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Trading in commodities involves substantial risk and past performance is no guarantee of future profits.  Zenith does not sell advice nor does it manage discretionary accounts other than its own. Readers should be aware of the vested interest that all traders/brokers have in encouraging other traders to make the same transactions.  No one should follow investment advice blindly.  This web site should be used only as a "sounding board" for confirming one's own opinion.  Any suggested order placements should be reviewed and reset to fit current market conditions by individual traders.

Recommendations may include trades which have already been made on the same or a previous day, otherwise the issue is placed on a "watch list." Suggested trades are based upon an approximate maximum $15,000 capitalization requirement per trade, depending upon initial contract margin requirements.  Zenith's actual trades may be larger.  $22 per round turn for futures is deducted from profit figures.   Commodity option trade recommendations are not tracked, but performance should parallel that of the underlying commodity's.

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