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12-13-2017: Natural Gas May No Longer Be the Preferrred Electric Generation Fuel

The obvious reason for low natural gas prices is over-production from shale sources and fracking. While that would obviously make it cheaper, one wonders how it could be "that much" cheaper. The answer lies in slowing demand for use in electric steam generating plants as the preferred fuel source, displaced by cheaper coal in Asia, cheaper alternate energy sources in the U.S., and nuclear power, especially in Japan. Fukushima seems a distant memory. Exports face high LNG transporation costs. And the weather this year thus far has been relatively warmer and mild in the U.S..

Our recent article on Natural Gas is in the Archives Section below.

12-14-2017: Some Commodities We Haven't Currently Reviewed

How do we pick a commodity for review? Here are technical strength or weakness ratings for 12/14 on the other major commodities not being currently being reviewed or traded on this site. To pick the commodity for our next review, Zenith will usually refer to such a list and pick the commodity which has one of either positive highest or negative lowest scores. Commodities currently under review on our list of about 18 on this site are not shown below. It's just a way of keeping track of what else is going with other commodities.

Some ratings are unusually inconsistent this week, with palladium going one way, gold and platinum the other, or bonds going one way, and notes and eurodollars the other.
There are undoubtedly special circumstance news stories to account for this.

Mar Palladium 100 Mar Treasury Bonds 80 Mar NASDAQ 100 Index 80 _____________________________

Mar U.S. Dollar Index 16 Mar Coffee "C" -96 Jan Platinum -96 Mar Chicago Wheat -88 Mar Soybean Oil -88 Feb Gold -88 Jan Rough Rice -72 Jan Soybeans -56 Mar Canadian Dollar -56 Mar Mexican Peso -56 Mar Swiss Franc -48 Apr Live Cattle -48 Jun Eurodollars -48 Mar Treasury Notes -40 Mar Oats -32 Mar Euro Currency -24 Apr Lean Hogs -16 Feb Gasoline -8 Mar Australian Dollar -8

Previous ratings (12/05)....

Jan Soybeans 96 Mar Treasury Bonds 88 Mar U.S. Dollar Index 16 Mar NASDAQ 100 Index 8 Mar Palladium 8 Feb Gasoline 0 ____________________________ Feb Gold -100 Mar Chicago Wheat -100 Feb Natural Gas -96 Mar Soybean Oil -88 Jan Platinum -88 Mar Coffee "C" -88 Jun Eurodollars -88 Mar Australian Dollar -64 Mar Swiss Franc -48 Mar Oats -48 Mar Treasury Notes -40 Apr Live Cattle -32 Mar Canadian Dollar -24 Mar Euro Currency -16 Mar Mexican Peso -16 Jan Rough Rice -8

The ratings are good only for date shown, and rapidly change each day, whereas we review the list only periodically. Once a commodity appears on our list of articles and is being currently traded, we consider its long-term direction has been established and trade consistently from that direction wtihout worrying about day-to-day changes. Granted, that's not how most other futures traders work nor how we trade stocks; but we have found it to be effective for commodities to trade that way.

Archive List

12-13-2017: February Natural Gas: Pressure from Alternate Power

12-08-2017: March Silver: Not Ready for Runaway Inflation

12-02-2017: March Soybean Meal: Choppy Trade

11-25-2017: December Hi-Grade Copper: Slowly Trending Higher

11-22-2017: December Australian Dollar: Poor Yield

11-20-2017: December Milk: News Mainly Cyclical

11-16-2017: December Corn: Oversupply and Slow Exports

11-13-2017: January Orange Juice: Re-evaluating Hurricane Damage

11-09-2017: December Kansas Wheat: Weather to the Rescue

10-27-2017: January Feeder Cattle: Anticipation of Inflation

10-23-2017: December Cotton: Hurricane Damage Overstated

10-18-2017: December Crude Oil: Reacting to Temporary Factors

10-12-2017: November Ethanol: Environmental Protection DIminishes in U.S.

10-05-2017: December Cocoa: Cost of Production Rises

09-29-2017: March World Sugar: Brazil Floods Market

09-25-2017: November Heating Oil: Hurricane Effects

09-22-2017: December S&P 500 Index: Fed To Begin Rebalancing Its Portfolio

09-18-2017: December British Pound: Monetary Policy Meeting Hawkish

09-13-2017: December Japanese Yen: North Korean Threats Abate

09-09-2017: November Lumber: Anticipation of High Tariffs on Canadian Softwood


Updated once a week (usually on Saturdays) unless the preceding week had less than five trading days.
Buy and sell prices are averaged where multiple contracts are involved, which is why they may not fall on an exchange tick increment.

Cocoa involved a roll forward from December to March, which is why initial price has been adjusted from that previously reported.

All Commodities Trades 10/02/2017 - 12/09/2017:

 # Commodity           BS    Buy   Sell   Last    Gain Intended  Rough   Group
                                                 (Loss)    Risk Percent

 4 Dec Ethanol          C 130.20 138.20 132.90 $  9,160  14,964  16.9% Energies
 6 Mar British Pound    L 134.26        134.48 $    645  14,963  11.2% Currency
 7 Mar Cocoa            C  20.33  18.60  18.87 $-12,320  12,110  15.8% Softs   
 5 Feb Crude Oil        C  56.10  58.87  57.44 $ 13,700  14,950  16.9% Energies
16 Mar Corn             C 351.90 359.00 352.80 $  5,200  14,960  16.9% Grains  
 4 Mar Cotton #2        S         73.98  73.72 $    400  14,980   5.6% Cotton  
13 Dec Milk Cl.III      S         14.41  14.38 $    390  14,560   5.5% Dairy   
 3 Mar S & P 500 E-Mini L 263.30        265.40 $  3,060  15,000   5.6% Stock Id
 4 Jan Feeder Cattle    L 145.48        145.23 $   -620  14,980   5.6% Meats   
 3 Mar Hi Grade Copper  C 306.40 310.50 297.90 $  2,985  15,000   5.6% Copper  
 3 Feb Heating Oil #2   C 190.00 193.70 192.80 $  4,572  14,994  16.9% Energies
 5 Mar Japanese Yen     C  88.91  89.45  88.61 $  3,225  14,938  11.2% Currency
 7 Mar Kansas Wheat     C 418.70 439.20 418.00 $  6,965  14,980  16.9% Grains  
 4 Jan Lumber           L 420.30        429.70 $  4,016  14,960   5.6% Lumber  
 7 Jan Orange Juice     L 152.16        152.85 $    515  14,994  15.8% Softs   
 8 Mar Sugar #11 World  C  14.03  15.09  14.05 $  9,258  14,874  15.8% Softs   
 2 Mar Silver Mini      C  15.72  16.39  15.82 $  3,290  14,950   5.6% Prec Met
 8 Mar Soybean Meal     C 335.40 349.80 335.70 $ 11,280  14,960  16.9% Grains  

            Adjustment for Open Positions: -($    8,406)
Prior to 12/04:
Other Gains/-Losses This Reporting Period:   $  483,105 ***
 *** For Contracts Closed or Rolled Forward  __________
Total for all Trades:                        $  540,420

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Trading in commodities involves substantial risk and past performance is no guarantee of future profits.  Zenith does not sell advice nor does it manage discretionary accounts other than its own. Readers should be aware of the vested interest that all traders/brokers have in encouraging other traders to make the same transactions.  No one should follow investment advice blindly.  This web site should be used only as a "sounding board" for confirming one's own opinion.  Any suggested order placements should be reviewed and reset to fit current market conditions by individual traders.

Recommendations may include trades which have already been made on the same or a previous day, otherwise the issue is placed on a "watch list." Suggested trades are based upon an approximate maximum $15,000 capitalization requirement per trade, depending upon initial contract margin requirements.  Zenith's actual trades may be larger.  $22 per round turn for futures is deducted from profit figures.   Commodity option trade recommendations are not tracked, but performance should parallel that of the underlying commodity's.

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