Introduction Nirvana Internal Progrm11-20-2025: March Cocoa: Cheaper for Grocers to Give the Stuff Away
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Cocoa prices to wholesalers are getting slashed worldwide on overproduction in Africa. So why is chocolate so expensive in America? We will give you one guess why the rest of the world is emjoying lower chocolate prices while Americans suffer. Yes! It's thd big over-stuffed guy in what's left of the White House, and his lackey appointees in the Republican "big, beautiful" party like the little weasel in the House of Representatives acting as "speaker" and doing little or nothing to honor is pledge to serve and defend the Constitution. A recent "relent" on cocoa tariffs may not be enough to undo all the damage caused to supply chains worldwide, especially as affects America. If you listen to Trump, who controls markets every time he shoots off his mouth (will they ever learn?), maybe you can latch on to his tail to do a little "insider trading" but the world of commodities is less valnerable to lies and distortions because all that is known about cocoa is pretty much out there, unlike insidious "insider trading" in the stock market. Commodites "react" a little slower and more cautiously to chaotic government interventions.
When grocery chains can't sell gourmet chocolate candy because prices are too high, why do they donate the stuff to food banks rather than just lowering their prices?
1. They don’t want to “train” customers to expect lower prices.
If a $6 gourmet chocolate bar suddenly sells for $1, people will wait for markdowns in the future. That permanently damages the brand and the store’s pricing power.
We fed Cocoa into a neural network to get the following result:
March Cocoa:
March Cocoa:
11-17-2025: Selection of Commodities To Be Reviewed
Introduction
2. Premium brands forbid deep discounting.
Many specialty food brands have contracts that disallow major price cuts because it cheapens the product’s image. Stores can get in trouble with the supplier for dumping it at 80% off.
3. Donations often bring a tax deduction near wholesale value.
In the U.S., companies can deduct the “enhanced deduction” for food donations —
typically cost plus up to 50% of the markup.
That’s more money than they’d get if they slashed prices and sold it for pennies.
4. They avoid angering customers who paid full price last week.
Huge markdowns make loyal shoppers feel ripped off and may trigger complaints or refund requests.
5. It protects shelf space and brand image.
Luxury items sitting in a clearance bin look like failures. Donating keeps the “premium” aura intact.
6. It’s simpler for operations.
Accounting for large price cuts, signage, labor, markdown systems, etc. costs time and money.
Donation = one step, and often automated.
7. They also score goodwill and positive PR.
“Supporting the food bank” is better optics than “stuck with overpriced candy.”
Intramarket Analysis
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Moving Average Divergence Convergence (MACD) Chart
News Analysis
If you read our previous article on evaluating commodities as a whole for opp;ortunities and saw the downward diagonal arrow for cocoa, the implication is that a volatile downward move is accelerating. For that reason we picked this one to review for possible "opportunity."
Cocoa prices have plummeted to a nearly two-year low on robust global supplies. You may not find this to be the case in your local supermarket due to the Trump Administration's idiotic tariffs/tax on American people. But worldwide, candy lovers are enjoying lower prices. Drops of 6% per day are not uncommon in daily trading. European Union nations are pushing for a one-year delay to the EU's deforestation regulation. The delay eases supply considerations and allows EU countries to continue importing agricultural products from regions in Africa, IOndonesia, and South America were deforestation is taking place. It is good some responsible nations have environmental concerns unlike the current American administration of selfish idiots. But Trump and the Repuiblican lackeys apparently is finally easing tariffs on certain food products including cocoa to please voters but not out of concern for the greater good.
A bumper crop in West Africa is undercutting coca prices. Favorable weather allows cocoa pods to develop quickly, dry weather in Ghana and the Ivory Coast. Chocolate maker Mondelez said latest cocoa pod count in West Africa is 7% above the five-year average and materially higher than last year's crop. The quality is expected to be good. Chocolate maker Hershey said chocolate sales this Halloween were "disappointing" and no wonder when one looked at prices in grocery stores. Food banks were giving the stuff away after grocery stores donated excess unsaleable inventories.
The Cocoa Association of Asia said Asia cocoa grindings fell by 17% to the smallest grindings in a quarter for 9 years. The European Cocoa Association said grindings fell by 4.8% in the a lowest quarter in 10 years. North American sales volume of chocolate candy was down more than 21% from the prior year according to research firm Circana.
Signs of a slowdown in cocoa exports from the Ivory Coast, the world's largest producer, were a positive factor for prices. However, in our parabolic chart above we saw a brief blip possibly from this news only to see a resumption in a major slide. ICE-monitored cocoa inventories were supportive as inventories held in U.S. ports fell by 5.67% in the most recent quarter from the same time last year.
Lower cocoa production in Nigeria is also supportive. That production is estimated to fall by 11% yhear over year to 305,000 metric tons from a projected 344,000 MT for the previous crop year.
The International Cocoa Organization last May revised its global cocoa deficit to 494,000 MT, the largest in 60 years. Production overall fell in 2024 in a stocks to grindings ratio of 27%, a 46-year low. A global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT was the first surplus in four years for 2024/25. Global cocoa production rose by 7.8% year over year in 2024 to 4.84 MT.
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