There is a significant "floating supply" of crude oil headed toward the U.S. on tankers temporarily being sed as storage. India has cancelled several cargoes scheduled to arrive this month and next month. In Germany, however, there are growing signs of global demand with reports that driving activity in Germanyi has jumped enough to produce aa increase in traffic jams. Some analysts however have suggested that gasoline demand may remain as much as 46% below normal levels. Fuel demand needs to jump sigtnificantly to soak up the supply built up within the distribution system. The market has already seen 2 weeks of notable declines in U.S. gasoline stocks with the year over year surplus reduced by 6.2 million barrels since April 17th.

Vertically-integrated sompanies may ramp up gasoline refinery activity as a way to free up storage space for ceude oil. Cumulative gasoline, distillate, and ultra-low-sulfur diesel inventories still have a year-over-year surplus of 83 million barrels. Some see the RBOB contract as relatively expensive and in need of a third straight week of gasoline declines to extend the recovery. At current levels the RBOB cibtract wukk see resustabce between 97 and 100.

Demand for gasoline is rebounding across the U.S. as more states begin to loosen restrictions and reopen their economies amid the coronavirus pandemic. Continued recovery in gas prices will nearly completely depend on improvement in the coronavirus situation. In the Pittsburgh area, gasoline prices averaged $2.16/gallon, up 1.2 cents from a week ago, while the national average rice was $1.83/gallon, up 6.4 cents in the past week.

Recent oil futures prices dropping below zero shook up energy markets. At one point crude oil hit -$38/barrel as traders scrambled to find ways to avoid deliveries with no place to store oil.

Crude oil staged a small rally after plunging to the lowest prices seen in many years. WTI intermediate crude closed as low as $10/barrel a few weeks ago. But it has since climbed back into the $20-$30 range.

In January, the U.S. exported more oil than it produced for the first time in history. $3/gallon gasoline for most of the country is considered very unlikely for most of the country, but three CAlifornia cities are likely to top $4, according to Gas Buddy, namely Los Angeles, Sacramento, and SAn Francisco. California typically has the highest prices among the lower 48 states.

Saudi Arabia has offered deep discounts to refineries that bought its oil and deep discounts to Asian customers. In March there was a record jump of 19.3 million barrels in crude stockpiles in one week. The build was 65% above forecasts and brought inventory gains to nearly 50 million barrels in three weweks. In the same period, bhe build in gasoline stocks came in at 25% less than forecast. That helped gasoline futures do better.

Saudi Arabia's national oil company offered credits through Saudi banks in recent weeks to bolster its market share. Aramco offered Asian buyers of its May Arab light crude oil a discount of $7 .30 versus the competing Oman/Dubia average. The official seeling price for Arab light crude to Asia was at a discount of $4.20/barrel. This is inconsistent with a Saudi policy of officallyi agreeing with the world int he need to cut oil production.

The vast majority of gas stations are now independently operated. Twelve years ago Exxon Mobil announced it was selling its 2,200 compoany-owned gas stations. Big oil companies have largely exited the business of owning gas stations that cary their signage because it was hard to make money on them.

In California, the Governor has asked the state attorney general to look into a differential of 20 to 50 cents per gallon that California motorists have paid tha cannot be accounted for after taxes and fees are taken out.

One source stated it takes as much as 6 weeks for crude oil pricing events to be reflected in gasoline prices. GasBuddy says motorists rushing to fill up today are wasting their money as prices will continue to drop. Gas stations passing along the drop in oil prices are several weeks behind, and there's plentyi of more roomk for prices to drop accordingn to that source.