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09-25-2017: Debate Over Hurricane Effects on Heating Oil

On one side of the fence are those brave analysts who note that damage and closures to Caribbean ports will prevent shipments of heating oil from going through there and possibly causing a pile up or glut of distillates in Gulf Coast ports. On the other side of the fence are the further bad weather enthusiasts who see everything from more hurricane damage to ports along the Atlantic Coast (which would disrupt heating oil to the Northeast where it is most used), and those who say distillates from Gulf Coast ports will simply be shipped elsewhere, most likely directly to Asia. (That would certainly be the "long way round.") Or perhaps, it could all go to Latin America, but it's warmer down there. As to who is winning the debate, the artibter seems to be higher heating oil costs in the Northeast emerging.

Our recent article on Heating Oil is in the Archives Section below.

09-22-2017: Some Commodities We Haven't Currently Reviewed

How do we pick a commodity for review? Here are technical strength or weakness ratings for 9/21 on the other major commodities not being currently being reviewed or traded on this site. To pick the commodity for our next review, Zenith will usually refer to such a list and pick the commodity which has one of either positive highest or negative lowest scores. Commodities currently under review on our list of about 18 on this site are not shown below. It's just a way of keeping track of what else is going with other commodities.

Oct  Heating Oil          96
Nov  Soybeans             56
Dec  Euro Currency        48
Dec  Live Cattle          48
Dec  Soybean Meal         48
Dec  Cocoa                16
Dec  NASDAQ 100 Index     16
Dec  Australian Dollar    16
Dec  Treasury Bonds        8
Dec  Gold                  0
Dec  Oats                  0
______________________________

Mar  Eurodollars         -48
Oct  Platinum            -48
Oct  Sugar #11           -40
Oct  Ethanol             -32
Oct  Milk Cl III         -16
Dec  Kansas Wheat        -16
Dec  Silver              -16
Dec  Coffee "C"          -16
The ratings are good only for date shown, and rapidly change each day, whereas we review the list only periodically. Once a commodity appears on our list of articles and is being currently traded, we consider its long-term direction has been established and trade consistently from that direction wtihout worrying about day-to-day changes. Granted, that's not how most other futures traders work nor how we trade stocks; but we have found it to be effective for commodities to trade that way.

Archive List

09-25-2017: November Heating Oil: Hurricane Effects

09-22-2017: December S&P 500 Index: Fed To Begin Rebalancing Its Portfolio

09-18-2017: December British Pound: Monetary Policy Meeting Hawkish

09-13-2017: December Japanese Yen: North Korean Threats Abate

09-09-2017: November Lumber: Anticipation of High Tariffs on Canadian Softwood

09-05-2017: December Lean Hogs: Over-Reaction to Herd Size and Slaugher Facilities Increase

08-29-2017: December Soybean OIl: Resists Other Falling Grain Products

08-24-2017: December Palladium: Supply Deficit

08-19-2017: September Mexican Peso: Bluster and No Change

08-14-2017: September Treasury Notes: N. Korea and U.S. Economic Stagnation

08-09-2017: September Natural Gas: Over Shale Production

08-05-2017: September Rough Rice: Chinese Imports Increase

07-28-2017: September Hi-Grade Copper: Chinese Demand Increases

07-25-2017: September Swiss Franc: Ineffective U.S. Congress

07-22-2017: September Orange Juice: Abundant Supplies From Brazil

07-18-2017: September Canadian Dollar: Rate Hike

07-15-2017: December Corn: Heat Wave Stresses Grains

06-30-2017: September Crude Oil: At Cost of Shale Production

06-19-2017: December Cotton: Over-Planted

06-06-2017: September U.S. Dollar Index: Downtrend Suspect

Performance

Updated once a week (usually on Saturdays) unless the preceding week had less than five trading days.
Buy and sell prices are averaged where multiple contracts are involved, which is why they may not fall on an exchange tick increment.

The gasoline trade involved a roll forward from September to October which is why initial price for gasoline does not agree with previous report.

All Commodities Trades 07/03/2017 - 09/23/2017:

 # Commodity           BS    Buy   Sell   Last    Gain Intended  Rough   Group
                                                 (Loss)    Risk Percent

19 Dec Soybean Oil      C  34.80  34.91  34.22 $    684  14,934  16.3% Grains  
 6 Dec British Pound    L 135.39        135.63 $    720  14,963  30.3% Currency
14 Dec Canadian Dollar  L  81.07         81.11 $    140  14,980  30.3% Currency
 4 Nov Crude Oil        C  49.88  50.91  50.66 $  4,000  14,960   5.4% Energies
13 Dec Corn             C 346.90 354.80 353.50 $  4,745  14,950  16.3% Grains  
 4 Dec Cotton #2        C  68.13  69.67  68.46 $  2,960  14,980   5.4% Cotton  
 7 Dec U.S.Dollar Index C  92.50  91.25  91.94 $ -8,960   8,750  30.3% Currency
10 Dec Lean Hogs        C  56.42  59.86  56.62 $ 13,460  14,960   5.4% Meats   
 5 Dec Hi Grade Copper  C 294.30 298.20 294.50 $  4,725  15,000   5.4% Copper  
 5 Dec Japanese Yen     C  89.42  90.10  89.59 $  4,100  14,938  30.3% Currency
 4 Nov Lumber           C 373.60 392.90 393.10 $  8,372  14,960   5.4% Lumber  
 7 Oct Natural Gas Mini L  29.54         29.59 $   -122  14,998   5.4% Nat Gas 
 4 Nov Orange Juice     C 146.33 156.22 146.80 $  5,814  14,994   5.4% Softs   
 1 Dec Palladium        C 901.70 931.00 919.80 $  2,900  15,000   5.4% Prec Met
 9 Dec Mexican Peso 500 L 553.10        556.40 $  1,215  14,985  30.3% Currency
10 Nov Rough Rice       L 123.99        123.60 $ -1,080  14,980  16.3% Grains  
 4 Dec Swiss Franc      L 103.55        103.64 $    330  14,950  30.3% Currency
 3 Dec S & P 500 E-Mini C 249.70 250.48 249.94 $  1,080  14,985   5.4% Stock Id
11 Dec Treasury Notes   C 126.67 125.53 125.73 $-12,870  12,540   4.5% Finance 

            Adjustment for Open Positions: -($    1,203)
Prior to 9/18:
Other Gains/-Losses This Reporting Period:   $  694,685 ***
 *** For Contracts Closed or Rolled Forward  __________
 
Total for all Trades:                        $  725,695

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Trading in commodities involves substantial risk and past performance is no guarantee of future profits.  Zenith does not sell advice nor does it manage discretionary accounts other than its own. Readers should be aware of the vested interest that all traders/brokers have in encouraging other traders to make the same transactions.  No one should follow investment advice blindly.  This web site should be used only as a "sounding board" for confirming one's own opinion.  Any suggested order placements should be reviewed and reset to fit current market conditions by individual traders.

Recommendations may include trades which have already been made on the same or a previous day, otherwise the issue is placed on a "watch list." Suggested trades are based upon an approximate maximum $15,000 capitalization requirement per trade, depending upon initial contract margin requirements.  Zenith's actual trades may be larger.  $22 per round turn for futures is deducted from profit figures.   Commodity option trade recommendations are not tracked, but performance should parallel that of the underlying commodity's.

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