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07-22-2017: Orange Juice Continues To Be Battered By Bumper Brazil Crops

In some stores, like Wal-Mart, one goes to the fruit section and sees labels indicating from which country you would prefer to have your fruit originating. One bin says "Guatemala," another says "Mexico." But when it comes to oranges, the bin is very likely to be filled with oranges coming from Brazil. Brazil is now the world's number one supplier of orange juice, after a significant portion of Florida's entire orange groves were wiped out by sudden death greening disease. Production in Florida is way down from previously, but Brazil imports are more than filling the gap.

Our recent article on Orange Juice appears in the Archives Section below.

07-16-2017: Some Commodities We Haven't Currently Reviewed

How do we pick a commodity for review? Here are technical strength or weakness ratings for 7/14 on the other major commodities not being currently being reviewed or traded on this site. To pick the commodity for our next review, Zenith will usually refer to such a list and pick the commodity which has one of either positive highest or negative lowest scores. Commodities currently under review on our list of about 18 on this site are not shown below. It's just a way of keeping track of what else is going with other commodities.

Sep  Mexican Peso        100
Sep  S&P 500 Index       100
Sep  Canadian Dollar     100
Sep  Euro Currency        96
Sep  British Pound        88
Sep  Australian Dollar    88
Dec  Oats                 72
Aug  Live Cattle          72
Sep  Hi-Grade Copper      64
Dec  Soybean Meal         56
Nov  Soybeans             56
Dec  Eurodollars          48
Sep  Swiss Franc          40
Sep  Treasury Notes       32
Sep  Heating Oil          16
Sep  Kansas Wheat         16
Sep  Rough Rice            8
Sep  Orange Juice        -96
Sep  Cocoa               -40
Sep  Japanese Yen        -32
Sep  Milk Cl III         -16
The ratings are good only for date shown, and rapidly change each day, whereas we review the list only periodically. Once a commodity appears on our list of articles and is being currently traded, we consider its long-term direction has been established and trade consistently from that direction wtihout worrying about day-to-day changes. Granted, that's not how most other futures traders work nor how we trade stocks; but we have found it to be effective for commodities to trade that way.

07-16-2017: Trying To Make Sense Out of Exchange Currency Option Data Changes

Our legacy software does not work well on CME IMM Exchange options due to what we think are some ridiculous changes made to the data format now put out on some (but not all) futures. Fortunately, we had an old data file during the "transition period" which used both formats. Here's some for a few corresponding Canadian Dollar Dec. 2016 put and call options:

The New:


The Old:

Traders in currency options seem to prefer forward expiration dates to distant ones, so if for example, the Canadian Dollar underlying futures trade in months of September, December, and followiong March, the futures options may only trade in August expirations, with just not enough business to justify maintaining further-out options. At least, that's what we think is happening. So the exchanges, in their "infinite wisdom", decided instead to provide more expiration date options within a single month. Thus, several letters are possible representing individual weeks within a month for expiration dates, with the "E" added following the "CD" in the symbol referring to the 12/09/2016 expiration date. They also added another digit to the underlying strike price to accommodate certain futures (but in the case of Canadian Dollar, they are always "zero.")

Most option trading software which depends upon user's ability to download data in ASCII format will no longer run properly, and the change is too new for developers to make adjustments. After some consideration, we decided the best approach when dealing with currency futures would be to "scrub" the incoming data rather than trying to rewrite our software to adjust for the changes. That essentially would require providing a new file with the 5th and the 13th character removed from the data.

If it would be desired to preserve the data file for other options not using this format, one might do a check to affect only options with "@CD" in the data, but that would mess up certain corn futures options data. Other "C" options such as cocoa or crude oil would not be affected because they don't have the "@" in their symbols.

Archive List

07-22-2017: September Orange Juice: Abundant Supplies From Brazil

07-18-2017: September Canadian Dollar: Rate Hike

07-15-2017: December Corn: Heat Wave Stresses Grains

06-30-2017: September Crude Oil: At Cost of Shale Production

06-19-2017: December Cotton: Over-Planted

06-13-2017: August Gasoline: Backwardization Evident

06-06-2017: September U.S. Dollar Index: Downtrend Suspect

05-27-2017: July World Sugar: Oversupply, Soft Demand, and Currency Problems

04-20-2017: August Feeder Cattle: Rallying Out of Depressed Era

04-14-2017: June Gold: Geopolitical Tensions

04-08-2017: May Ethanol: Losing Government Support

04-03-2017: May Lumber: Fears of a Border Adjustment Tax

03-28-2017: June Palladium: China Toughens Air Pollution Standards

03-22-2017: May Soybean Oil: Big South American Soybean Crop

03-15-2017: June Treeasury Bonds: Waiting for Interest Rate Rise

03-08-2017: May Coffee: Ending Dryness in Brazil

02-28-2017: May Silver: Outperforms Gold

02-22-2017: April Natural Gas: Lots In Storage

02-18-2017: March NASDAQ 100 Index: Up, Up, and Away

02-15-2017: April Lean Hogs: Mexican Trade Issue


Updated once a week (usually on Saturdays) unless the preceding week had less than five trading days.
Buy and sell prices are averaged where multiple contracts are involved, which is why they may not fall on an exchange tick increment.

This begins Zenith's 3rd Quarter for 2017 with new cumulative totals for the quarter, only.

All Commodities Trades 07/03/2017 - 07/22/2017:

 # Commodity           BS    Buy   Sell   Last    Gain Intended  Rough   Group
                                                 (Loss)    Risk Percent

 4 Jun Ethanol          C 151.70 156.60 151.90 $  5,564  14,848  16.0% Energies
11 Dec Soybean Oil      S         34.36  34.27 $    264  14,916  10.5% Grains  
14 Sep Canadian Dollar  C  79.13  79.61  79.86 $  6,300  14,980   9.4% Currency
 4 Oct Crude Oil        C  44.19  47.72  45.95 $ 14,000  14,960  16.0% Energies
13 Dec Corn             C 383.40 405.10 393.50 $ 13,715  14,560  10.5% Grains  
 4 Dec Cotton #2        S         68.97  68.42 $    980  14,980   5.4% Cotton  
 7 Sep U.S.Dollar Index C  95.27  93.67  93.76 $-11,410  11,200   9.4% Currency
 4 Aug Feeder Cattle    L 150.20        152.95 $  5,380  14,980  10.7% Meats   
 2 Aug Gold             C 120.89 125.08 125.49 $  8,320  14,960  16.0% Prec Met
10 Aug Lean Hogs        C  79.94  83.75  81.10 $ 14,940  14,960  10.7% Meats   
 3 Sep Coffee "C"       S        136.30 136.60 $   -428  14,850  10.6% Softs   
 4 Sep Lumber           C 383.50 393.30 386.70 $  4,192  14,960   5.4% Lumber  
 3 Sep NASDAQ 100 E-Min C 584.40 591.40 591.90 $  4,110  14,940   5.3% Stock Id
19 Sep Natural Gas Mini C  29.40  30.89  29.61 $  6,508  14,915   5.3% Nat Gas 
 3 Sep Palladium        L 836.80        844.30 $  2,160  14,970  16.0% Prec Met
 3 Sep Gasoline         S        158.90 153.40 $  6,840  14,868  16.0% Energies
 8 Oct Sugar #11 World  S         14.63  14.40 $  1,821  14,874  10.6% Softs   
 3 Sep Silver Mini      C  15.20  16.44  16.46 $  9,210  14,925  16.0% Prec Met
 3 Sep Treasury Bonds   S        153.69 154.25 $ -1,770  14,970   5.4% Finance 

            Adjustment for Open Positions: -($   15,247)
Prior to 7/13:
Other Gains/-Losses This Reporting Period:   $   83,272 ***
 *** For Contracts Closed or Rolled Forward  __________
Total for all Trades:                        $  158,721

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Trading in commodities involves substantial risk and past performance is no guarantee of future profits.  Zenith does not sell advice nor does it manage discretionary accounts other than its own. Readers should be aware of the vested interest that all traders/brokers have in encouraging other traders to make the same transactions.  No one should follow investment advice blindly.  This web site should be used only as a "sounding board" for confirming one's own opinion.  Any suggested order placements should be reviewed and reset to fit current market conditions by individual traders.

Recommendations may include trades which have already been made on the same or a previous day, otherwise the issue is placed on a "watch list." Suggested trades are based upon an approximate maximum $15,000 capitalization requirement per trade, depending upon initial contract margin requirements.  Zenith's actual trades may be larger.  $22 per round turn for futures is deducted from profit figures.   Commodity option trade recommendations are not tracked, but performance should parallel that of the underlying commodity's.

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