11-06-2011: Exide Technologies Inc. (XIDE): Hybrid Vehicle and Solar System Battery Applications

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Recommendation

Exide Technologies Inc.

It is hard for us to say much positive about Exide Technologies, Inc. (XIDE). It has a reasonably strong Zenith Index indicating fundamental strength. It is an old-line company that has been around for a long time. It has a worldwide presence and partners with some very large manufacturers. But it also has a history of bankruptcy, and after emergence from bankruptcy does not appear to have done much better.

This seems strange to us, as the company operates in two of what should be the most promising areas of technology, hybrid vehicles and solar power systems. Yet both of these groups along with the miscellaneous electronic components group as a whole are at the very bottom of the industry group performance list. All companies in the area of making batteries appear to be having a hard time.

Analysts seem to like the company, perhaps because of strong projected earnings growth, but historically the company has disappointed. Its CEO seem vastly over-compensated for the results shown thus far. But at least he is not receiving stock option perquisites on top of his $11 million annual salary which is a plus. Researchers almost universally do not favor this company perhaps because they lag behind the analysts a bit.

One thing that jumps out of the "news" is that battery-making is a messy business. This company has been fined millions for environmental pollution violations, has had exposure-to-lead worker safety issues, and has been forced to close or reduce plants in neighborhoods that have had enough. We all want these batteries, but don't want them to be made in our back yards. The company has worldwide exposure, which may mean some lenience from overseas manufacturing sites would be possible.

The chart patterns on the stock are pretty miserable. From what we see, it would be dangerous to sell this company short after shares have been beaten down so much. Its fundamental financial strength and size ($2.4 billion in sales), coupled with prospects in the industry groups in which it competes, could make it a turnaround situation. Shorting any stock below $5/share is dangerous. Still, it has one of the worst overall ratings in our Decsion Matrix at the end of this article of any stock we have reviewed thus far. It pays no dividend which is very poor for a company this large compared to an average 4.36% dividend paid by stocks in the Electronic Instruments and Controls industry group, or the 2.17% average dividend paid by stocks in the S&P 500 Index.

On this stock, we would sum up by quoting: "You pays your money and you takes your chances."



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is consider strong and > 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Exide Technologies               (XIDE )    Sector: Industrial Goods
13000 Deerfield Parkway          Industry: Industrial Electrical Equipme
Building 200                     Exchange: Nasdaq
Milton, GA 30004

Exide Technologies engages in the production and sale of lead-acid
batteries for transportation and industrial applications. It offers
transportation batteries, which include ignition and lighting batteries
for cars, trucks, off-road vehicles, agricultural and construction
vehicles, motorcycles, recreational vehicles, marine, and other
applications, such as micro-hybrids and lead-acid batteries used on full
electrical vehicles. The company sells its batteries under the Centra,
DETA, Exide, Exide Extreme, Exide NASCAR Select, Orbital, Fulmen, and
Tudor brand names, as well as under various private labels. It also
provides industrial energy products that consist of motive power
batteries, which are used in material handling industry for electric
forklift trucks, floor cleaning machinery, powered wheelchairs, railroad
locomotives, mining, and the electric road vehicles markets. In addition,
the company offers network power batteries, which are used for back-up
power applications in telecommunications systems, computer installations,
hospitals, air traffic control, security systems, utility, railway, and
military under the Absolyte and Sonnenschein brand names. Further, Exide
Technologies offers battery chargers and related equipments for the
wholesale distributors, battery specialists, national account customers,
retail stores, original equipment manufacturers (OEM) dealers, automotive
parts and battery wholesalers, auto centers, service installers, and oil
companies; and industrial energy products to OEM suppliers of lift trucks,
industrial companies, retail distributors, warehousing companies, and
manufacturers. The company operates in the United States, France, Germany,
Italy, Spain, and Poland, as well as internationally. Exide Technologies
was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Milton, Georgia.

Last Trade:   4.47                     52-Week Range:  12.68 -   3.59
Trade Date:  11-04                     Avg. Volume:    909,518 Shares
Index Membership:                                  Employees:  10,027

Corporate Governance:
    Audit (Low Concern), Board (Low Concern), Compensation
    (Medium Concern), Shareholder Rights (Medium Concern).

     EPS:   0.38     Dividend Amount: $  0.00       Yield:         0.00%
                    Ex-Dividend Date: N/A         Mkt Cap: $    349,080K
                        Payout Ratio:  0.00%

     Last Split Factor (new for old): N/A      Split Date: N/A

Key Statistics:

Enterprise Value: $    984,210K           Revenue (ttm)  : $  2,990,000K
                                             Gross Profit: $    564,430K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $    218,150K

Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm):  0.33           Revenue per Share: $   38.82
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm):   4.51       Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y): 15.60%


P/E Ratio (fwd projected):  3.69      P/E Ratio (current):  11.89

P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected):  0.59  Operating Margin:    4.46%
               Price/Sales Ratio:  0.12     Profit Margin:    1.01%
                Price/Book Value:  0.86        Book Value: $  5.34/sh.

Return on Assets:   4.09%        Net Income Avl to Common: $    30,300K
Return on Equity:   8.14%          Diluted Earnings/Share:     $  0.38
                              Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):        0.00%

Balance Sheet Items :                   Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr)                      (trailing 12 mo.)

       Total Cash: $    134,200K        Operating Cash Flow:$     64,170K
       Total Debt: $    758,400K        Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$    -27,630K
Total Debt/Equity:       182.10
 Total Cash/Share:      $  1.72
    Current Ratio:         1.73

Share Statistics:                       Stock Price History:

    Shares Outstanding:   78,090K       Stk 52-Week Change: -29.73%
                 Float:   63,720K       S&P 500 52-Wk Chng:   3.28%
  Sh. Short % of Float:     8.30%        50-Day Moving Avg:   4.53
           Short Ratio:     6.30        200-Day Moving Avg:   6.63
% Held by Institutions:    72.10%                     Beta:   2.53
    % Held by Insiders:    15.25%

Analysts' Estimates:               Cur. Qtr   Next Qtr  Cur. Year  Next Year
___________________________          Sep 11     Dec 11     Mar 12     Mar 13

  Average Earnings Estimate           0.11       0.41       0.78       1.21
  Average Revenue  Estimate            57M       870M     3,200M     3,330M

Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):

Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr):   2.065      EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY):   0.000
  PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected):   2.462             P/E Ratio (ttm):   3.556
      Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY):   1.730


Annual Income Statements:                          All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          Mar31,2011   Mar31,2010   Mar31,2009

  Total Revenue                          2,887,516    2,685,808    3,322,332
  Cost of Revenue                        2,323,087    2,147,712    2,708,664
  Gross Profit                             564,429      538,096      613,668

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                         0            0            0
  Selling, General & Administrative        426,370      440,761      471,022
  Non-Recurring Expenses                    42,286       80,596       75,015
  Other Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Total Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Operating Income or Loss                  95,773       16,739       67,631

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net          -13,047        9,894      -31,699
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes          20,316      -33,300      -36,308
  Interest Expense                               0            0       72,240
  Income Before Taxes                       20,316      -33,300      -36,308
  Income Tax Expense                        -6,496      -21,963       32,173
  Minority Interest                           -369         -477       -1,041
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s           15,616      -11,814      -69,522

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                        0            0            0
  Extraordinary Items                            0            0       -2,179
  Effect of Accounting Changes                   0            0            0
  Other Items                                    0            0            0
  Net Income                                26,443      -11,814      -69,522

  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts            0            0            0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shares         26,443      -11,814      -69,522


Quarterly Income Statements:                           All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                   Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010  Sep30,2010

  Total Revenue                      745,095     774,546     800,296     668,008
  Cost of Revenue                    628,445     632,810     634,697     525,632
  Gross Profit                       116,650     141,736     165,599     142,376

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                   0           0           0           0
  Selling, General & Adminis.        102,738     107,636     111,866     110,853
  Non-Recurring Expenses                 295      24,762       5,434       3,885
  Other Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Operating Income or Loss            13,617       9,338      48,299      27,638

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net       -120     -15,158       4,833       7,599
  Earnings Before Int. & Taxes        -4,163     -22,789      36,333      21,578
  Interest Expense                         0           0           0           0
  Income Before Taxes                 -4,163     -22,789      36,333      21,578
  Income Tax Expense                   1,633      -9,296       6,613       1,987
  Minority Interest                      604        -188         -11        -132
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s     -5,192     -24,508      31,211      17,957

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                  0           0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                      0           0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes             0           0           0           0
  Other Items                              0           0           0           0
  Net Income                          -5,192     -13,681      31,211      17,957

  Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s            0           0           0           0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shs      -5,192     -13,681      31,211      17,957


Annual Balance Sheets:                                All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                       Mar31,2011     Mar31,2010     Mar31,2009
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                161,363         89,558         69,505
  Short Term Investments                       0              0              0
  Net Receivables                        540,052        513,328        530,846
  Inventory                              519,909        418,396        420,815
  Other Current Assets                    22,476         21,543         22,317
  Total Current Assets                 1,243,800      1,042,825      1,043,483

  Long-Term Investments                        0              0          2,048
  Property, Plant & Equipt               611,635        603,160        586,261
  Goodwill                                     0              0          4,022
  Intangible Assets                      178,418        180,428        179,333
  Accumulated Amortization                     0              0              0
  Other Assets                            68,775         44,200         25,656
  Deferred Long Term Asset Charges        81,036         85,613         63,406
  Total Assets                         2,183,664      1,956,226      1,900,187

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                       690,543        600,906        541,099
  Short/Current Long Term Debt            11,220         12,923         13,168
  Other Current Liabilities                    0              0          1,143
  Total Current Liabilities              701,763        613,829        554,267

  Long Term Debt                         746,938        646,604        646,180
  Other Liabilities                      313,176        324,270        327,444
  Deferred LT Liability Charges           15,898         23,485         30,229
  Minority Interest                        1,102         15,704         15,840
  Negative Goodwill                            0              0              0
  Total Liabilities                    1,778,877      1,623,892      1,573,960

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Stocks Options Warrants                0              0              0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock                   0              0              0
  Preferred Stock                              0              0              0
  Common Stock                               775            756            755
  Retained Earnings                     -772,652       -799,095       -787,281
  Treasury Stock                               0              0              0
  Capital Surplus                      1,127,124      1,119,959      1,111,001
  Other Stockholder Equity                49,540         10,714          1,752
  Total Stockholder Equity               404,787        332,334        326,227
  Net Tangible Assets                    226,369        151,906        146,894


Quarterly Balance Sheets:                               All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                Jun30,2011   Mar31,2011   Dec31,2010   Sep30,2010
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents         130,856      161,363       92,339       77,380
  Short Term Investments                0            0            0            0
  Net Receivables                 515,392      540,052      532,388      479,323
  Inventory                       599,813      519,909      457,107      472,214
  Other Current Assets             22,790       22,476       28,703       23,306
  Total Current Assets          1,268,851    1,243,800    1,110,537    1,052,223

  Long-Term Investments                 0            0            0        2,060
  Property, Plant & Equipt        619,289      611,635      591,172      598,872
  Goodwill                              0            0            0            0
  Intangible Assets               179,102      178,418      174,850      177,490
  Accumulated Amortization              0            0            0            0
  Other Assets                     73,418       68,775       38,477       31,497
  Deferred LT Asset Charges        85,926       81,036       90,814      104,992
  Total Assets                  2,226,586    2,183,664    2,005,850    1,967,134

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                721,315      690,543      621,068      591,961
  Current Portion LT Debt          11,862       11,220       12,696       13,067
  Other Current Liabilities             0            0            0            0
  Total Current Liabilities       733,177      701,763      633,764      605,028

  Long Term Debt                  746,533      746,938      635,857      639,227
  Other Liabilities               312,138      313,176      323,182      330,727
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges        18,271       15,898       27,607       28,392
  Minority Interest                   685        1,102          832       14,700
  Negative Goodwill                     0            0            0            0
  Total Liabilities             1,810,804    1,778,877    1,621,242    1,618,074

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, WarrantS               0            0            0            0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock            0            0            0            0
  Preferred Stock                       0            0            0            0
  Common Stock                        779          775          770          768
  Retained Earnings              -777,844     -772,652     -758,971     -790,182
  Treasury Stock                        0            0            0            0
  Capital Surplus               1,130,305    1,127,124    1,126,190    1,121,673
  Other Stockholder Equity         62,542       49,540       16,619       16,801
  Total Stockholder Equity        415,782      404,787      384,608      349,060
  Net Tangible Assets             236,680      226,369      209,758      171,570


Annual Cash Flow:                                    All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                      Mar31,2011     Mar31,2010     Mar31,2009
  Net Income                             26,443        -13,681        -69,522
Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                           88,865         95,117        100,952
  Adjustments to Net Income              11,666        -13,919         73,405
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls           -2,094         21,090        162,390
  Changes in Liabilities                 41,240          9,511       -234,890
  Changes in Inventories                -83,369         20,128         88,739
  Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's              0        -11,428         -1,594
  Total Cash Flow fr Operations          79,990        109,162        120,521

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                  -88,589        -96,092       -108,914
  Investments                                 0              0              0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing               0            850          7,827
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing         -71,796        -95,242       -101,087

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                              0              0              0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock             -15,145         -1,824            368
  Net Borrowings                        391,397         -3,241        -13,415
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing               0              0              0
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing          57,599          1,930        -29,441

  Effect of Exchange Rate Change          6,012          4,203        -11,035
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s          71,805         20,053        -21,042


Quarterly Cash Flow:                                   All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                  Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010  Sep30,2010

  Net Income                         -5,192     -13,681      31,211      17,957

Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                       22,845      22,156      22,690      21,870
  Adjustments to Net Income           2,705      15,725      -1,616      -5,126
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls       30,937      14,556     -56,000     -14,119
  Changes in Liabilities             12,434      19,364      37,944        -384
  Changes in Inventories            -72,075     -48,281      13,416       5,303
  Changes in Other Oper'g Acts            0       5,269      -8,564      -2,989
  Total Cash Flow f Operations      -12,582      15,296      38,812      22,644

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures              -18,723     -36,188     -21,809     -20,145
  Investments                             0           0           0           0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing           0       6,158       9,334       1,014
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing     -18,714     -30,030     -12,475     -19,131

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                          0           0           0           0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock             277        -221     -11,778      -2,281
  Net Borrowings                        834     398,593        -499      -8,269
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing           0           0           0           0
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing         -73      81,161     -12,910     -10,949

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg             0           0           0       2,597
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.      -30,507      69,024      14,959      -3,158


XIDE   Exide Technologies                 [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
                                          or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28?    2.3549       P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate: -0.2300       Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    3.0000

Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   3.0000       Inventory/Sales < 5%?      0.2777
Sales < $1 billion?        0.3463       Operating Margin < 7.5%?   1.6816

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.0022       Long-Term Debt Service:    0.5419
LTD Being Reduced?         1.2000       Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.8650       Working Capital >= 1.5?    1.1557
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.5974       Debt / Assets < 1?         2.9235
Quick Ratio > 1?           0.8814       Inventory Turnover > 1?    3.0000
Shares Out Decreasing?     1.8000       Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion?  3.0000
                                        Profit Margin > 7.5%?      0.1347
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000       EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   3.0000
Enterprise Value/Revenue:  0.2200       EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%?     3.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   0.6443       EPS Growth Consistent?     2.4000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0000       Collection < 45 days?      0.6592
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%?   2.3400       Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1?    3.0000
EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   3.0000       Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%?   1.0000

Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          3.0000       % Held by Insiders  < 5%?  0.3279
Beta > 1.25?               2.0240       % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.6935
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?     -1.4094       % Held by Institut. > 30?  2.4033
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  0.2187       Short Ratio > 5?           1.2600
Price/Book Value < 3?      3.0000       Short % of Float > 20?     0.4150
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.2406       Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  2.3225       Positive Free Cash Flow?   0.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  1.0000       Price to C.F./sh. Ratio:  -0.9024
                                        Cash Flow / Assets >.10?  -0.1241

XIDE    Exide Technologies              Overall Zenith Index:      1.3728


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Ownership:

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Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for Exide Technologies:
Symbol? XIDE
Total Months Available:  90
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  12.68    6.17     11.70    6.61      7.89    3.59

RANGE   =  12.68  TO    3.59            Close =   4.61
CHANNEL =   7.89  TO    6.61           Degree =   1
Volatility =  27.87%                    Index =   2
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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News - 1
Comparison + 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index + 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings < 1%- 1
Cash Flow - 1
Ratios - 1
Market Grader - 1
Intrinsic Value DCF - 1
Intrinsic Value DDM + 1
Stock Scout - 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity - 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest - 1
Sentiment - 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
Moving Average + 1
Right Time Study + 1
Stock Fetcher - 1
Point & Figure - 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart - 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network + 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems 0
Total - 10
Place 6,680 shares of Exide Technologies Inc. (XIDE) on the Active List.