01-14-2010: Wonder Auto Technology Inc. (WATG): China Again

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Recommendation

Wonder Auto Technology Inc.

We can see American companies like General Motors heading over to China to buy original equipment parts. But frankly, we are a little surprised to see Mitsubishi Motors, Hyndai, Kia, Fiat, and Volkswagen doing so as well. China is fast becoming a leading auto parts manufacturer. Wonder Auto Technology (WATG) is a Jinzhou-based company that specializes in alternators and starter motors for automobiles, together comprising most of its revenues with 220 different models of these things, and also supplying rods, shafts, and engine valves.

China is increasingly the place where American investors are heading to get the best deals on financial ratios when purchasing stock. The Chinese seem much better able to manage debt than American companies. NASDAQ and NYSE listings are increasingly getting full of foreign-based companies, particularly ones from China where economic growth leads the world. We formerly shunned foreign stocks because of more lax reporting requirements, but most Chinese companies seem to desire to meet American-based company reporting standards.

Most of Wonder's revenues come from sales to original equipment manufacturers operating in China. As one American executive put it, if you want to succeed in business in China, find a Chinese partner!

One caveat we would suggest is that most of the company's sales are to Chery Automobile and BYD auto, two Chinese automobile manufacturers whose sales are booming in the world's biggest automobile market. A "Buy Chinese Act" in China assures that at least 50% of government vehicles will be domestic brands. Chery, Dongfeng Motor, and Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. are all planning to launch pure electric cars.

As yet Chery is only gearing up to sell its cars in the U.S. A visit to Chery's website reveals very slow, ineffective servers, at least as reached from this country. But Wonder is set to cash in not only on Chery's expansion, but on its already impressive list of U.S., European, and Japanese-based customers.

The company has a somewhat marginal Zenith Index mostly because it hasn't been around long enough to develop a five-year track record. But both of our favorite researchers like the company, while many American sites such as Standard & Poor's have yet to catch up to the trend to deal in large-volume Chinese stocks.

This is where the growth really is in the global economy, and practically all American financial advisors now seem to declare that a healthy chunk of Chinese stocks in one's portfolio would be a prudent diversification. Compared to foreign auto makers, the American automobile industry appears to be on a fast track to nowhere, led by General Motors, the official "bailout" company now being semi-managed by government.



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Wonder Auto Technology, Inc.     (WATG )    Sector: Consumer Goods
No 16 Yulu Street                Industry: Auto Parts
Taihe District                   Exchange: Nasdaq
Jinzhou, China

Wonder Auto Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in
the business of designing, developing, manufacturing, and selling
automotive electrical parts in China. It offers alternators,
starters, engine valves, tappets, rods, shafts, rectifiers,
regulator products, engine valves, and tappets. Wonder Auto
Technology-Ęs products are used in passenger cars and commercial
vehicles. The company sells its products to automakers, engine
manufacturers, and auto parts suppliers in China. Wonder Auto
Technology, Inc. is headquartered in Jinzhou, China.

Last Trade:  12.98                     52-Week Range:  15.78 -   2.04
Trade Date:  01-11                     Avg. Volume:    671,962 Shares
Index Membership: N/A                              Employees:   2,698

Corporate Governance:
Wonder Auto Technology, Inc.'s Corporate Governance Quotient (CGQ-«)
as of 3-Jan-10 is better than 47.6% of Russell 3000 companies and
53.8% of Automobiles & Components companies.

     EPS:   0.76     Dividend Amount: $  0.00       Yield:         0.00%
                    Ex-Dividend Date: N/A         Mkt Cap: $    349,930K
                        Payout Ratio:  0.00%

     Last Split Factor (new for old): N/A      Split Date: N/A

Key Statistics:

Enterprise Value: $    405,960K           Revenue (ttm)  : $    182,740K
                                             Gross Profit: $     36,440K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $     32,250K

Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm):  2.22           Revenue per Share: $    6.78
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm):  12.59       Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y): 50.20%


P/E Ratio (fwd projected): 13.66      P/E Ratio (current):  17.19

P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected):  0.88  Operating Margin:   14.30%
               Price/Sales Ratio:  1.94     Profit Margin:   11.14%
                Price/Book Value:  3.03        Book Value: $  4.34/sh.

Return on Assets:   7.13%        Net Income Avl to Common: $    20,360K
Return on Equity:  18.94%          Diluted Earnings/Share:     $  0.76
                              Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):        2.40%

Balance Sheet Items :                   Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr)                      (trailing 12 mo.)

       Total Cash: $     21,420K        Operating Cash Flow:$     17,120K
       Total Debt: $     72,590K        Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$     -7,170K
Total Debt/Equity:         0.00
 Total Cash/Share:      $  0.80
    Current Ratio:         1.29

Share Statistics:                       Stock Price History:

    Shares Outstanding:   26,960K       Stk 52-Week Change: 312.54%
                 Float:   15,680K       S&P 500 52-Wk Chng:  28.60%
  Sh. Short % of Float:     0.00%        50-Day Moving Avg:  12.41
           Short Ratio:     1.40        200-Day Moving Avg:  11.54
% Held by Institutions:    28.00%                     Beta:   2.51
    % Held by Insiders:    47.09%

Analysts' Estimates:               Cur. Qtr   Next Qtr  Cur. Year  Next Year
___________________________          Dec-09     Mar-10     Dec-09     Dec-10

  Average Earnings Estimate           0.21       0.21       0.84       0.95
  Average Revenue  Estimate            60M        57M       208M       254M

Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):

Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr): 0.034          EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY): 0.001
  PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected): 0.026                 P/E Ratio (ttm): 0.163
      Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY): 0.669


Annual Income Statements:                          All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          31-Dec-08    31-Dec-07    31-Dec-06

  Total Revenue                            141,190      102,084       72,150
  Cost of Revenue                          104,750       76,460       57,342
  Gross Profit                              36,439       25,624       14,808

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                     1,648        1,136          948
  Selling, General & Administrative         11,627        6,856        4,056
  Non-Recurring Expenses                         0       18,266        7,508
  Other Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Total Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Operating Income or Loss                  23,165         -634        2,297

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net            1,553          871          228
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes          25,790          271        2,896
  Interest Expense                           2,246        1,496          808
  Income Before Taxes                       23,544       -1,225        2,088
  Income Tax Expense                         2,175        1,389        1,270
  Minority Interest                         -2,460       -1,137         -102
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s           18,909       -3,750          716

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                        0            0            0
  Extraordinary Items                            0            0            0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                   0            0            0
  Other Items                                    0            0            0
  Net Income                                18,909       -3,750          716

  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts            0            0            0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shares         18,909       -3,750          716


Quarterly Income Statements:                           All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                    30-Sep-09   30-Jun-09   31-Mar-09   31-Dec-08

  Total Revenue                       58,962      49,651      39,976      34,148
  Cost of Revenue                     45,007      37,432      29,882      25,511
  Gross Profit                        13,954      12,219      10,094       8,637

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                 488         465         456         520
  Selling, General & Adminis.          4,675       4,271       3,529       4,271
  Non-Recurring Expenses                   0           0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Operating Income or Loss             8,792       7,484       6,109       3,846

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net        118       1,003         206         635
  Earnings Before Int. & Taxes         8,910       8,487       6,315       4,762
  Interest Expense                     1,053       2,208           0         468
  Income Before Taxes                  7,857       6,279       6,315       4,293
  Income Tax Expense                     940         633         920         315
  Minority Interest                     -410        -494           0        -675
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s      6,507       5,152       5,395       3,304

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                  0           0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                      0           0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes             0           0           0           0
  Other Items                              0           0           0           0
  Net Income                           6,507       5,152       5,395       3,304

  Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s            0         223        -223           0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shs       6,507       5,376       5,172       3,304


Annual Balance Sheets:                                All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                        31-Dec-08      31-Dec-07      31-Dec-06
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                 36,321         34,716         13,081
  Short Term Investments                       0              0              0
  Net Receivables                         75,146         51,565         28,967
  Inventory                               44,016         12,635         13,689
  Other Current Assets                     1,245            343            390
  Total Current Assets                   156,728         99,260         56,127

  Long-Term Investments                        0              0            528
  Property, Plant & Equipt                69,132         22,517         13,946
  Goodwill                                18,905         15,275          2,771
  Intangible Assets                       13,617          2,874          2,683
  Accumulated Amortization                    68             41              0
  Other Assets                             3,846          2,072          1,741
  Deferred Long Term Asset Charges           871            440            205
  Total Assets                           263,030        142,397         78,000

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                        77,203         31,710         21,817
  Short/Current Long Term Debt            44,056         10,283         14,327
  Other Current Liabilities                9,110          1,125          1,049
  Total Current Liabilities              130,369         43,117         37,194

  Long Term Debt                          16,054         17,622              0
  Other Liabilities                          798              0              0
  Deferred LT Liability Charges            2,807              0              0
  Minority Interest                       10,942          3,215          2,580
  Negative Goodwill                            0              0              0
  Total Liabilities                      160,970         63,954         39,773

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Stocks Options Warrants                0              0              0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock                   0              0              0
  Preferred Stock                              0              0              0
  Common Stock                                 3              3              2
  Retained Earnings                       14,655         -1,483          3,977
  Treasury Stock                               0              0              0
  Capital Surplus                         71,350         70,643         29,648
  Other Stockholder Equity                16,053          9,280          4,600
  Total Stockholder Equity               102,060         78,442         38,227
  Net Tangible Assets                     69,538         60,293         32,773


Quarterly Balance Sheets:                               All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                 30-Sep-09    30-Jun-09    31-Mar-09    31-Dec-08
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents         42,703       56,824       26,688       36,321
  Short Term Investments                0            0            0            0
  Net Receivables                  82,422       72,926       65,467       75,146
  Inventory                        46,917       46,421       41,285       44,016
  Other Current Assets                  0            0            0        1,245
  Total Current Assets            172,042      176,171      133,440      156,728

  Long-Term Investments                 0            0            0            0
  Property, Plant & Equipt        71,883       71,049       67,166       69,132
  Goodwill                         18,905       18,905       18,905       18,905
  Intangible Assets                13,579       13,626       13,436       13,617
  Accumulated Amortization            180          143            0           68
  Other Assets                      2,554        2,411        5,688        3,846
  Deferred LT Asset Charges         2,953        2,814        2,960        9,110
  Total Assets                    279,412      283,143      239,777      263,030

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                 75,939       84,633       59,404       77,203
  Current Portion LT Debt          54,011       57,482       53,155       44,056
  Other Current Liabilities             0            0            0            0
  Total Current Liabilities       132,902      144,929      115,520      130,369

  Long Term Debt                   18,578       17,205        9,513       16,054
  Other Liabilities                   520          620          714          798
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges         3,383        3,444        2,742        2,807
  Minority Interest                 7,052        6,631        6,355       10,942
  Negative Goodwill                     0            0            0            0
  Total Liabilities               162,435      172,829      134,843      160,970

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, WarrantS               0            0            0            0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock            0            0            0            0
  Preferred Stock                       0            0            0            0
  Common Stock                          3            3            3            3
  Retained Earnings                31,709       25,202       19,826       14,655
  Treasury Stock                        0            0            0            0
  Capital Surplus                  67,712       67,712       67,712       71,350
  Other Stockholder Equity         17,554       17,398       17,393       16,053
  Total Stockholder Equity        116,978      110,314      104,934      102,060
  Net Tangible Assets              84,494       77,783       72,594       69,538


Annual Cash Flow:                                    All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                       31-Dec-08      31-Dec-07      31-Dec-06

  Net Income                             18,909          5,152            716
Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                            3,904          2,105          1,431
  Adjustments to Net Income                 816         19,698          7,241
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls            5,296        -17,153         -4,621
  Changes in Liabilities                 -4,958          9,006          1,102
  Changes in Inventories                -14,862          2,265         -4,481
  Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's              0              0              0
  Total Cash Flow fr Operations           9,106         12,170          1,389

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                        0         -8,024         -3,628
  Investments                                 0              0             38
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing         -37,266        -16,542         -2,629
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing         -37,266        -24,566         -6,219

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                              0         -1,087         -1,720
  Sale or Purchase of Stock                   0         22,730         10,142
  Net Borrowings                          9,230         11,325            804
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing           2,294         -3,736           -918
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing           9,226         29,232          8,308

  Effect of Exchange Rate Change            991          1,063            357
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s          17,944        -17,944         17,899


Quarterly Cash Flow:                                   All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                   30-Sep-09   30-Jun-09   31-Mar-09   31-Dec-08

  Net Income                          6,507       5,152       5,395       3,304

Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                        1,686       1,379       1,473       1,570
  Adjustments to Net Income             824       1,220        -445         713
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls       -7,712      -7,206         597      16,156
  Changes in Liabilities             -3,916       9,897        -811      -2,420
  Changes in Inventories               -411      -5,166       2,651      -8,497
  Changes in Other Oper'g Acts         -251         251           0           0
  Total Cash Flow f Operations       -3,274       5,752       8,636      10,826

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures               -6,463       1,422      -1,422      11,777
  Investments                             0           0           0           0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing       3,350      -2,192     -28,473           0
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing      -3,113      -5,545      -3,615     -16,696

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                          0           0           0      -1,913
  Sale or Purchase of Stock               0           0           0           0
  Net Borrowings                     -8,599      29,938     -10,640       2,795
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing       4,623           0     -12,058           0
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing      -3,975      17,880         452        -836

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg            65           0          -1          10
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.      -10,298      18,086       5,472      -6,695


WATG   Wonder Auto Technology, Inc.       [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
                                          or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28?    1.6289       P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  0.6400       Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    2.0498

Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   1.1856       Inventory/Sales < 5%?      0.1604
Sales < $1 billion?        3.0000       Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.5245

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        1.0000       Long-Term Debt Service:    3.0000
LTD Being Reduced?         1.2000       Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.6475       Working Capital >= 1.5?    1.5450
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      2.4060       Debt / Assets < 1?         3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           0.9415       Inventory Turnover > 1?    3.0000
Shares Out Decreasing?     0.6000       Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion?  3.0000
                                        Profit Margin > 7.5%?      1.4853
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000       EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0000
Enterprise Value/Revenue:  1.4800       EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%?     1.2000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   1.7984       EPS Growth Consistent?     2.4000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.2400       Collection < 45 days?      0.2316
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%?   3.0000       Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1?    0.3716
EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0000       Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%?   0.6299

Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          3.0000       % Held by Insiders  < 5%?  0.1062
Beta > 1.25?               2.0080       % Held by Institut. < 50?  1.7857
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.2011       % Held by Institut. > 30?  0.9333
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  1.9068       Short Ratio > 5?           0.2800
Price/Book Value < 3?      0.9700       Short % of Float > 20?     0.0000
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.4194       Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  2.3877       Positive Free Cash Flow?   0.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  1.0000       Price to C.F./sh. Ratio:  -3.0000
                                        Cash Flow / Assets >.10?  -0.2566

WATG    Wonder Auto Technology, Inc.    Overall Zenith Index:      1.2520


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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for Wonder Auto Technology Group:
Symbol? WATG
Total Months Available:  40
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
   6.80    2.04     12.83    5.83     15.78    8.10

RANGE   =  15.78  TO    2.04            Close =  11.80
CHANNEL =   8.10  TO    6.80           Degree =   1
Volatility =  11.02%                    Index =   1
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The "ultimate systems" are inconclusive, giving no clear confirmed signals.

The corresponding trades for the above chart are shown in tabular form below.



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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison + 1
Industry + 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index + 1
GAAP vs. non-GAAP Earnings < 1%+ 1
Cash Flow + 1
Ratios + 1
Market Grader + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Intrinsic Value DDM + 1
Stock Scout - 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports + 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites + 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest - 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's 0
Moving Average + 1
Right Time Study + 1
Stock Fetcher + 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart - 1
Time Series Chart + 1
Neural Network - 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems 0
Total + 17
Place 2,550 shares of Wonder Auto Technology Group (WATG) on the Active List.