01-08-2012: Solutia Inc. (SOA): Two Major Recent Transitions

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Recommendation

Solutia Inc.

Solutia (SOA) is a diversified chemical manufacturer of components which are used in automobiles, building construction, and airplanes. Products include components for making window glass, tires, and fuel. Subsequent to when ticker "SOA" was used for Southern Africa Fund, Solutia has gone through two major transformations. The first was a spinoff from Monsanto. There are two reasons why a large corporation might spin off a subsidiary. One is that a branch of management wants to isolate the spinoff from the poor management of the parent, such as was the case with thriving Eastman Chemical that got separated from mismanaged Eastman Kodak. Another is that the subsidiary is a loser or has liabilities, such as was the case with Johns Manville and subsequent Holophane Lighting spinoff, to isolate the subsidiary from asbestos lawsuits. In Solutia's case, it carried with it substantial liabilities for PCB manufacturer. It was later determined Monsanto would remain liable from some of these as well as certain pension benefits. Solutia fell into the latter situation which brought about the second major transformation within a decade after the spinoff, namely Chapter 11 bankruptcy, from which Solutia has emerged.

Upon its emergence, this St. Louis-based chemical manufacturer was described as "not the same company it used to be." One thing we want to note is that unlike the General Motors bankruptcy, Solutia did not leave its shareholders penniless holding the "proverbial bag." It offered an exchange for new stock. So why is it not anything like it used to be? It is settling with its troubled past, especially cancer victim lawsuit over the PCB's. It is reducing its high debt level with new financing. It sells through a direct sales force through much of the world, and has shifted manufacturing to a number of places in the world with less environmental restrictions. (This is one reason why Republicans would like to sacrifice the environment here by abolishing the EPA, so companies with stay.)

Global economic recovery is showing strong demand for Solutia's products. Its products remain so diversified they are even used in e-readers and computers. It will supply its synthetic heat transfer fluid to the world's largest solar generating facility by 2013. High debt is the company's biggest problem which it is paying down. So the future looks much brighter for Solutia than its past.

We found some anamolies in investor rankings, but the stock emerged with a fairly high Decision Matrix score anyway. For example, researchers remain for the most part neutral, but analysts highly favor the stock. (Analysts seem to react more quickly to changing conditions.) Standard & Poor's was the most cryptic of all, giving the stock an extremely poor "investability quotient" and an extremely high "fair value ranking" suggesting the stock is under-priced. We gave the S&P element a negative rating, but were not quite sure what S&P was telling us except possibly that the stock was speculative. Earnings growth has been somewhat spectacular, giving the stock high "intrinsic values."

Put them all together and this stock appears poised for much higher share price despite some lackluster recent performance. It does appear to have a somewhat "channeling" appearance (trading range), where it is just below the area of that range and poised to go higher. 



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Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is consider strong and > 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Solutia Inc.                     (SOA  )    Sector: Basic Materials
575 Maryville Centre Drive       Industry: Specialty Chemicals
St Louis, MO 63141               Exchange: NYSE

Solutia Inc. engages in the manufacture and marketing of performance
materials and specialty chemicals used in a range of consumer and
industrial applications. It operates in three segments: Advanced
Interlayers, Performance Films, and Technical Specialties. The Advanced
Interlayers segment produces polyvinyl butyral (PVB) sheet under the
Saflex brand for automotive, architectural, and solar applications; ethyl
vinyl acetate (EVA) films under the VISTASOLAR brand for photovoltaic
module encapsulation; and specialty intermediate PVB resin and plasticizer
products under BUTVAR brand. The Performance Films segment manufactures,
markets, and distributes custom-coated window films for aftermarket
automotive and architectural applications under the LLumar, Vista,
EnerLogic, FormulaOne, Gila, V-KOOL, H++per Optik, IQue, Sun-X, and Nanolux
brands; and advanced film component solutions for solar and electronic
technologies under the FLEXVUE brand. The Technical Specialties segment
provides chemicals for the rubber, solar energy, process manufacturing,
and aviation industries. This segment principally offers insoluble sulfur
under the Crystex brand; antidegradants under the Santoflex brand; heat
transfer fluids under the Therminol brand; and aviation hydraulic fluids
under the Skydrol brand name. The company sells its products directly to
end users in various industries through direct sales force, as well as
through distributors and franchisees in the United States, Europe, Asia,
Latin America, and Canada. Solutia Inc. was founded in 1901 and is
headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.

Last Trade:  17.56                     52-Week Range:  27.08 -  11.27
Trade Date:  01-06                     Avg. Volume:  1,429,680 Shares
Index Membership:                                  Employees:   3,300

Corporate Governance:
    Audit (Low Concern), Board (Low Concern), Compensation (Medium
    Concern), Shareholder Rights (Medium Concern).

     EPS:   2.10     Dividend Amount: $  0.15       Yield:         0.90%
                    Ex-Dividend Date: Feb 13, 20  Mkt Cap: $  2,110,000K
                        Payout Ratio:  0.00%

     Last Split Factor (new for old): N/A      Split Date: N/A

Key Statistics:

Enterprise Value: $  3,320,000K           Revenue (ttm)  : $  2,060,000K
                                             Gross Profit: $    608,000K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $    501,000K

Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm):  1.61           Revenue per Share: $   17.23
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm):   6.62       Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y):  1.60%


P/E Ratio (fwd projected):  7.98      P/E Ratio (current):   8.35

P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected):  0.58  Operating Margin:   18.35%
               Price/Sales Ratio:  1.03     Profit Margin:   12.38%
                Price/Book Value:  2.22        Book Value: $  7.94/sh.

Return on Assets:   6.64%        Net Income Avl to Common: $   251,000K
Return on Equity:  31.86%          Diluted Earnings/Share:     $  2.10
                              Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):       56.20%

Balance Sheet Items :                   Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr)                      (trailing 12 mo.)

       Total Cash: $    172,000K        Operating Cash Flow:$    223,000K
       Total Debt: $  1,370,000K        Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$    154,750K
Total Debt/Equity:       143.13
 Total Cash/Share:      $  1.43
    Current Ratio:         2.03

Share Statistics:                       Stock Price History:

    Shares Outstanding:  120,100K       Stk 52-Week Change: -29.11%
                 Float:  118,050K       S&P 500 52-Wk Chng:   0.63%
  Sh. Short % of Float:     2.60%        50-Day Moving Avg:  16.02
           Short Ratio:     2.00        200-Day Moving Avg:  17.15
% Held by Institutions:    92.10%                     Beta:   2.24
    % Held by Insiders:     5.94%

Analysts' Estimates:               Cur. Qtr   Next Qtr  Cur. Year  Next Year
___________________________          Dec 11     Mar 12     Dec 11     Dec 12

  Average Earnings Estimate           0.47       0.52       1.99       2.20
  Average Revenue  Estimate             6M       543M     2,080M     2,220M

Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):

Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr):   7.833      EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY):   7.833
  PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected): 241.604             P/E Ratio (ttm):  16.876
      Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY):   1.602

Annual Income Statements:                          All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          Dec31,2010   Dec31,2009   Dec31,2008

  Total Revenue                          1,950,000    1,618,000    2,110,000
  Cost of Revenue                        1,342,000    1,141,000    1,653,000
  Gross Profit                             608,000      477,000      457,000

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                    18,000       14,000       12,000
  Selling, General & Administrative        259,000      221,000      286,000
  Non-Recurring Expenses                         0            0            0
  Other Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Total Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Operating Income or Loss                 331,000      242,000      159,000

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net          -70,000      -38,000    1,455,000
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes         261,000      204,000    1,614,000
  Interest Expense                         139,000      121,000      149,000
  Income Before Taxes                      122,000       83,000    1,465,000
  Income Tax Expense                        31,000       17,000      227,000
  Minority Interest                         -4,000       -4,000            0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s           91,000       66,000    1,238,000

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                   -9,000     -175,000     -452,000
  Extraordinary Items                            0            0            0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                   0            0            0
  Other Items                                    0            0            0
  Net Income                                78,000     -113,000      786,000

  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts            0            0            0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shares         78,000     -113,000      786,000


Quarterly Income Statements:                           All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                   Sep30,2011  Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010

  Total Revenue                      519,000     543,000     509,000     489,000
  Cost of Revenue                    370,000     373,000     347,000     346,000
  Gross Profit                       149,000     170,000     162,000     143,000

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development               6,000       5,000       6,000       5,000
  Selling, General & Adminis.         35,000      58,000      51,000      63,000
  Non-Recurring Expenses                   0           0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Operating Income or Loss           108,000     107,000     105,000      75,000

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net     -2,000           0      -3,000       4,000
  Earnings Before Int. & Taxes       106,000     107,000     102,000      79,000
  Interest Expense                    24,000      26,000      28,000      30,000
  Income Before Taxes                 82,000      81,000      74,000      49,000
  Income Tax Expense                   6,000      11,000       8,000       5,000
  Minority Interest                   -1,000      -2,000      -1,000      -1,000
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s     76,000      70,000      66,000      44,000

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                  0           0           0       4,000
  Extraordinary Items                      0           0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes             0           0           0           0
  Other Items                              0           0           0           0
  Net Income                          75,000      68,000      65,000      47,000

  Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s            0           0           0           0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shs      75,000      68,000      65,000      47,000


Annual Balance Sheets:                                All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                       Dec31,2010     Dec31,2009     Dec31,2008
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                191,000        243,000         32,000
  Short Term Investments                       0              0              0
  Net Receivables                        303,000        340,000        337,000
  Inventory                              275,000        247,000        341,000
  Other Current Assets                    32,000         67,000        575,000
  Total Current Assets                   801,000        897,000      1,285,000

  Long-Term Investments                        0              0              0
  Property, Plant & Equipt               911,000        919,000        952,000
  Goodwill                               740,000        511,000        511,000
  Intangible Assets                      938,000        803,000        823,000
  Accumulated Amortization                     0              0              0
  Other Assets                           147,000        136,000        163,000
  Deferred Long Term Asset Charges             0              0              0
  Total Assets                         3,537,000      3,266,000      3,734,000

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                       408,000        363,000        429,000
  Short/Current Long Term Debt                 0         28,000         37,000
  Other Current Liabilities               15,000         62,000        221,000
  Total Current Liabilities              423,000        453,000        687,000

  Long Term Debt                       1,463,000      1,264,000      1,359,000
  Other Liabilities                      674,000        770,000        965,000
  Deferred LT Liability Charges          238,000        179,000        202,000
  Minority Interest                        7,000          7,000              0
  Negative Goodwill                            0              0              0
  Total Liabilities                    2,805,000      2,673,000      3,213,000

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Stocks Options Warrants                0              0              0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock                   0              0              0
  Preferred Stock                              0              0              0
  Common Stock                             1,000          1,000          1,000
  Retained Earnings                     -703,000       -781,000       -668,000
  Treasury Stock                          -6,000         -2,000              0
  Capital Surplus                      1,634,000      1,612,000      1,474,000
  Other Stockholder Equity              -194,000       -237,000       -286,000
  Total Stockholder Equity               732,000        593,000        521,000
  Net Tangible Assets                   -946,000       -721,000       -813,000


Quarterly Balance Sheets:                               All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                Sep30,2011   Jun30,2011   Mar31,2011   Dec31,2010
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents         170,000      169,000      173,000      191,000
  Short Term Investments                0            0            0            0
  Net Receivables                 311,000      338,000      328,000      303,000
  Inventory                       356,000      328,000      295,000      275,000
  Other Current Assets             33,000       31,000       34,000       32,000
  Total Current Assets            870,000      866,000      830,000      801,000

  Long-Term Investments                 0            0            0            0
  Property, Plant & Equipt        917,000      934,000      912,000      911,000
  Goodwill                        742,000      759,000      754,000      740,000
  Intangible Assets               912,000      948,000      950,000      938,000
  Accumulated Amortization              0            0            0            0
  Other Assets                    134,000      149,000      149,000      147,000
  Deferred LT Asset Charges             0            0            0            0
  Total Assets                  3,575,000    3,656,000    3,595,000    3,537,000

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                424,000      414,000      402,000      408,000
  Current Portion LT Debt               0            0            0            0
  Other Current Liabilities         5,000       13,000       20,000       15,000
  Total Current Liabilities       429,000      427,000      422,000      423,000

  Long Term Debt                1,337,000    1,362,000    1,387,000    1,463,000
  Other Liabilities               623,000      652,000      671,000      674,000
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges       226,000      248,000      245,000      238,000
  Minority Interest                 7,000       10,000        8,000        7,000
  Negative Goodwill                     0            0            0            0
  Total Liabilities             2,622,000    2,699,000    2,733,000    2,805,000

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, WarrantS               0            0            0            0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock            0            0            0            0
  Preferred Stock                       0            0            0            0
  Common Stock                      1,000        1,000        1,000        1,000
  Retained Earnings              -495,000     -570,000     -638,000     -703,000
  Treasury Stock                  -13,000       -8,000       -8,000       -6,000
  Capital Surplus               1,653,000    1,646,000    1,641,000    1,634,000
  Other Stockholder Equity       -193,000     -112,000     -134,000     -194,000
  Total Stockholder Equity        953,000      957,000      862,000      732,000
  Net Tangible Assets            -701,000     -750,000     -842,000     -946,000


Annual Cash Flow:                                    All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                      Dec31,2010     Dec31,2009     Dec31,2008

  Net Income                             78,000         68,000        786,000
Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                          125,000        127,000        115,000
  Adjustments to Net Income              36,000        158,000       -792,000
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls           42,000        -45,000         67,000
  Changes in Liabilities                 -5,000          8,000        -21,000
  Changes in Inventories                -22,000         74,000        -41,000
  Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's              0        -47,000       -507,000
  Total Cash Flow fr Operations         274,000        251,000       -393,000

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                  -66,000        -44,000        -99,000
  Investments                                 0              0         53,000
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing               0         23,000        -55,000
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing        -429,000        -21,000       -101,000

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                              0              0              0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock              -4,000        117,000        672,000
  Net Borrowings                        170,000       -106,000       -317,000
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing               0         -5,000         -2,000
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing         127,000        -19,000        353,000

  Effect of Exchange Rate Change        -24,000              0              0
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s         -52,000        211,000       -141,000


Quarterly Cash Flow:                                   All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                  Sep30,2011  Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010

  Net Income                         75,000      68,000      65,000      47,000

Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                       32,000      32,000      33,000      34,000
  Adjustments to Net Income         -53,000     -14,000       3,000     -12,000
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls       24,000      -4,000     -37,000      35,000
  Changes in Liabilities             -5,000       7,000      13,000       6,000
  Changes in Inventories            -29,000     -33,000     -23,000       2,000
  Changes in Other Oper'g Acts            0     -10,000      -6,000     -28,000
  Total Cash Flow f Operations       41,000      41,000      52,000      89,000

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures              -30,000     -23,000     -17,000     -38,000
  Investments                             0           0           0           0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing           0           0      25,000       8,000
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing      -2,000     -23,000       8,000     -30,000

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                     -4,000           0           0           0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock          -5,000           0      -2,000           0
  Net Borrowings                    -25,000     -25,000     -77,000     -50,000
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing      -2,000       1,000      -1,000      -3,000
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing     -36,000     -24,000     -80,000     -49,000

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg             0           0           0       2,000
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.        1,000      -4,000     -18,000      10,000


SOA    Solutia Inc.                       [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
                                          or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28?    3.0000       P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate: -0.2600       Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    3.0000

Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   2.2330       Inventory/Sales < 5%?      0.3545
Sales < $1 billion?        0.5128       Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.4087

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.0028       Long-Term Debt Service:    0.5003
LTD Being Reduced?         2.4000       Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         1.0150       Working Capital >= 1.5?    0.9862
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.5511       Debt / Assets < 1?         2.4176
Quick Ratio > 1?           1.1212       Inventory Turnover > 1?    3.0000
Shares Out Decreasing?     2.4000       Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion?  0.7109
                                        Profit Margin > 7.5%?      1.6506
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     3.0000       EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   2.6800
Enterprise Value/Revenue:  1.0733       EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%?     3.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   0.9457       EPS Growth Consistent?     2.4000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    3.0000       Collection < 45 days?      0.7934
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%?   0.2400       Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1?    3.0000
EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   2.6800       Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%?   1.0307

Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          3.0000       % Held by Insiders  < 5%?  0.8418
Beta > 1.25?               1.7920       % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.5429
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?     -0.1931       % Held by Institut. > 30?  3.0000
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  0.0420       Short Ratio > 5?           0.4000
Price/Book Value < 3?      1.7800       Short % of Float > 20?     0.1300
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.3906       Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  1.4410       Positive Free Cash Flow?   1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  1.0000       Price to C.F./sh. Ratio:   0.9739
                                        Cash Flow / Assets >.10?   0.4329

SOA     Solutia Inc.                    Overall Zenith Index:      1.4450


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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for Solutia Inc.:
Symbol? SOA
Total Months Available:  46
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  27.08   21.33     25.09   14.49     18.02   11.27

RANGE   =  27.08  TO   11.27            Close =  17.60
CHANNEL =  21.33  TO   18.02           Degree =   2
Volatility =  18.81%                    Index =   3
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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison + 1
Industry + 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index + 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings < 1%- 1
Cash Flow + 1
Ratios + 1
Market Grader + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Intrinsic Value DDM + 1
Stock Scout - 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports 0
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
Moving Average + 1
Right Time Study + 1
Stock Fetcher - 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer + 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network - 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems 0
Total + 13
Place 1,710 shares of Solutia, Inc. (SOA) on the Active List.