12-09-2011: Seattle Genetics, Inc. (SGEN): Cancer Treatment Drug Recently Approved

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Recommendation

Seattle Genetics, Inc.

Seattle Genetics is one of many companies seeking a cure for cancer. What makes this company somewhat different is that it recently received FDA approval for a cancer treatment drug, "Adcetris," as recently as October, making this a story stock. However, it has been a long struggle for approval in the U.S., and, as we understand it, this is the main single source of revenue for this company outside of grants and the sale of securities. We believe at one time, Paul Allen and Bill Gates of Microsoft fame were principal investors and shareholders in this company, but that situation is long gone. In the last decade we have seen news items about "SGN-15, SGN-45, all the way up to SGN-75" indicating the long tortuous route to find a viable drug. The company partners with many other pharmaceutical companies in research and the sale or use of its patents. The company stock has been volatile, taking a dive in early November after the release of news on FDA approval for Adcetris. Why?

Concerns arose over a conference call, following Seattle Genetic's better-than-expected third quarter report. The company did not provide guidance for future Adcetris sales, and said it plans to block publication of sales data. The reason given was, "significant unknowns related to product adoption and the timing and trajectory of revenues." SGEN is working with distributors to keep sales data confidential for competitive reasons. Lack of information and concerns aboutr the drug's inability to expand its usage has weighed on the stock.

Frankly, Zenith believes it is in the late phase of a bull market when the quality stocks at bargain prices have all been snapped up and the action now shifts to the junk markets. Any companies which have been consistently as much as Seattle Genetics and its 154 competitors is going to be heavily penalized in ratings on our site, just because of having negative earnings. We felt the management was vastly over-compensated for a company that made its revenues largely from the sale and dilution of stock, particularly if in the form of stock option perquisites being regularly exercised by the CEO, while we might have been more tolerant of the amounts in a more profitable company. Researchers and analysts generally don't like this stock, but in its favor is increasing institutional buying interest.



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is consider strong and > 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Seattle Genetics Inc.            (SGEN )    Sector: Healthcare
21823 30th Drive SE              Industry: Biotechnology
Bothell, WA 98021                Exchange: Nasdaq

Seattle Genetics, Inc., a clinical stage biotechnology company, focuses on
the development and commercialization of monoclonal antibody-based
therapies for the treatment of cancer and autoimmune diseases in the
United States. Its lead product, SGN-35 is in pivotal trial stage used for
the treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory hodgkin lymphoma.
The company-Ęs other product candidates in various stages of clinical
trials include SGN-75, which is in Phase I clinical trials for metastatic
renal cell carcinoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma; ASG-5ME, a preclinical
antibody-drug conjugate product candidate for the treatment of solid
tumors; dacetuzumab (SGN-40), a humanized anti-CD40 antibody; SGN-70, a
humanized anti-CD70 antibody for the treatment of autoimmune diseases; and
SGN-19A, a preclinical antibody-drug conjugate product candidate for the
treatment of hematologic malignancies. It has collaborations with Bayer
Pharmaceuticals Corporation; Celldex Therapeutics, Inc.; Daiichi Sankyo
Co., Ltd.; Genentech, Inc.; GlaxoSmithKline LLC; Millennium; and PSMA
Development Company LLC. The company also has an antibody-drug conjugates
co-development agreement with Agensys, Inc.; and Genmab A/S. Seattle
Genetics, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Bothell,
Washington.

Last Trade:  17.98                     52-Week Range:  22.40 -  12.29
Trade Date:  12-09                     Avg. Volume:  2,090,950 Shares
Index Membership:                                  Employees:     348

Corporate Governance:
    Audit (Low Concern), Board (Low Concern), Compensation
    (Medium Concern), Shareholder Rights (Medium Concern).

     EPS:  -1.45     Dividend Amount: $  0.00       Yield:         0.00%
                    Ex-Dividend Date: N/A         Mkt Cap: $  2,070,000K
                        Payout Ratio:  0.00%

     Last Split Factor (new for old): N/A      Split Date: N/A

Key Statistics:

Enterprise Value: $  1,710,000K           Revenue (ttm)  : $     54,040K
                                             Gross Profit: $    107,470K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $   -156,870K

Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm): 31.58           Revenue per Share: $    0.49
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm): -10.88       Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y): 29.20%


P/E Ratio (fwd projected):  0.00      P/E Ratio (current):   0.00

P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected):  2.02  Operating Margin:  %-297.19%
               Price/Sales Ratio: 38.27     Profit Margin:  %-295.00%
                Price/Book Value:  8.94        Book Value: $  2.01/sh.

Return on Assets: -26.10%        Net Income Avl to Common: $  -159,410K
Return on Equity: -75.72%          Diluted Earnings/Share:     $ -1.45
                              Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):        0.00%

Balance Sheet Items :                   Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr)                      (trailing 12 mo.)

       Total Cash: $    361,700K        Operating Cash Flow:$   -108,870K
       Total Debt: $          0K        Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$    -66,550K
Total Debt/Equity:         0.00
 Total Cash/Share:      $  3.15
    Current Ratio:         5.23

Share Statistics:                       Stock Price History:

    Shares Outstanding:  115,010K       Stk 52-Week Change:  18.45%
                 Float:  113,410K       S&P 500 52-Wk Chng:  -0.49%
  Sh. Short % of Float:    30.80%        50-Day Moving Avg:  17.92
           Short Ratio:    10.90        200-Day Moving Avg:  18.31
% Held by Institutions:    89.10%                     Beta:   1.01
    % Held by Insiders:     1.23%

Analysts' Estimates:               Cur. Qtr   Next Qtr  Cur. Year  Next Year
___________________________          Dec 11     Mar 12     Dec 11     Dec 12

  Average Earnings Estimate          -0.32      -0.29      -1.45      -0.86
  Average Revenue  Estimate             7M        47M        82M       202M

Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):

Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr):   0.000      EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY):   0.000
  PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected):  57.714             P/E Ratio (ttm):   0.000
      Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY):   6.121


Annual Income Statements:                          All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          Dec31,2010   Dec31,2009   Dec31,2008

  Total Revenue                            107,470       51,965       35,236
  Cost of Revenue                                0            0            0
  Gross Profit                             107,470       51,965       35,236

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                   146,410      119,139      110,944
  Selling, General & Administrative         29,258       17,683       16,078
  Non-Recurring Expenses                         0            0            0
  Other Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Total Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Operating Income or Loss                 -68,198      -84,857      -91,786

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net            1,933        3,174        6,285
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes         -66,265      -81,683      -85,501
  Interest Expense                               0            0            0
  Income Before Taxes                      -66,265      -81,683      -85,501
  Income Tax Expense                             0            0            0
  Minority Interest                              0            0            0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s          -66,265      -81,683      -85,501

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                        0            0            0
  Extraordinary Items                            0            0            0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                   0            0            0
  Other Items                                    0            0            0
  Net Income                               -66,265      -81,683      -85,501

  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts            0            0            0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shares        -66,265      -81,683      -85,501


Quarterly Income Statements:                           All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                   Sep30,2011  Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010

  Total Revenue                       20,666      13,054      12,171       8,146
  Cost of Revenue                        724           0           0           0
  Gross Profit                        19,942      13,054      12,171       8,146

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development              41,080      49,643      32,434      32,520
  Selling, General & Adminis.         19,795      15,197      12,713      10,522
  Non-Recurring Expenses                   0           0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Operating Income or Loss           -40,933     -51,786     -32,976     -34,896

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net        248         280         302         350
  Earnings Before Int. & Taxes       -40,685     -51,506     -32,674     -34,546
  Interest Expense                         0           0           0           0
  Income Before Taxes                -40,685     -51,506     -32,674     -34,546
  Income Tax Expense                       0           0           0           0
  Minority Interest                        0           0           0           0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s    -40,685     -51,506     -32,674     -34,546

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                  0           0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                      0           0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes             0           0           0           0
  Other Items                              0           0           0           0
  Net Income                         -40,685     -51,506     -32,674     -34,546

  Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s            0           0           0           0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shs     -40,685     -51,506     -32,674     -34,546


Annual Balance Sheets:                                All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                       Dec31,2010     Dec31,2009     Dec31,2008
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                 21,127         18,486         30,800
  Short Term Investments                 260,682        242,319         64,379
  Net Receivables                         20,061         81,472         10,074
  Inventory                                    0              0              0
  Other Current Assets                     2,246          6,302          5,463
  Total Current Assets                   304,116        348,579        110,716

  Long-Term Investments                   13,031         26,925         65,529
  Property, Plant & Equipt                12,311         12,325         10,996
  Goodwill                                     0              0              0
  Intangible Assets                            0              0              0
  Accumulated Amortization                     0              0              0
  Other Assets                               478            504            476
  Deferred Long Term Asset Charges             0              0              0
  Total Assets                           329,936        388,333        187,717

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                        25,783         19,496         15,879
  Short/Current Long Term Debt                 0              0              0
  Other Current Liabilities               29,038         85,002         24,341
  Total Current Liabilities               54,821        104,498         40,220

  Long Term Debt                               0              0              0
  Other Liabilities                            0              0              0
  Deferred LT Liability Charges          113,597         77,635         68,479
  Minority Interest                            0              0              0
  Negative Goodwill                            0              0              0
  Total Liabilities                      168,418        182,133        108,699

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Stocks Options Warrants                0              0              0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock                   0              0              0
  Preferred Stock                              0              0              0
  Common Stock                               102            101             80
  Retained Earnings                     -461,970       -395,705       -314,022
  Treasury Stock                               0              0              0
  Capital Surplus                        624,759        603,053        394,338
  Other Stockholder Equity                -1,373         -1,249         -1,378
  Total Stockholder Equity               161,518        206,200         79,018
  Net Tangible Assets                    161,518        206,200         79,018


Quarterly Balance Sheets:                               All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                Sep30,2011   Jun30,2011   Mar31,2011   Dec31,2010
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents         112,105       79,797       61,469       21,127
  Short Term Investments          249,592      331,322      381,128      260,682
  Net Receivables                  16,461       12,203        9,849       20,061
  Inventory                         3,428            0            0            0
  Other Current Assets              5,325        4,363        2,673        2,246
  Total Current Assets            386,911      427,685      455,119      304,116

  Long-Term Investments            12,791       13,144       13,256       13,031
  Property, Plant & Equipt         14,638       12,125       11,739       12,311
  Goodwill                              0            0            0            0
  Intangible Assets                     0            0            0            0
  Accumulated Amortization              0            0            0            0
  Other Assets                      6,150          681          479          478
  Deferred LT Asset Charges             0            0            0            0
  Total Assets                    420,490      453,635      480,593      329,936

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                 38,287       33,836       25,393       25,783
  Current Portion LT Debt               0            0            0            0
  Other Current Liabilities        35,636       35,678       34,424       29,038
  Total Current Liabilities        73,923       69,514       59,817       54,821

  Long Term Debt                        0            0            0            0
  Other Liabilities                     0            0            0            0
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges       115,323      120,093      115,947      113,597
  Minority Interest                     0            0            0            0
  Negative Goodwill                     0            0            0            0
  Total Liabilities               189,246      189,607      175,764      168,418

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, WarrantS               0            0            0            0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock            0            0            0            0
  Preferred Stock                       0            0            0            0
  Common Stock                        115          114          114          102
  Retained Earnings              -586,835     -546,150     -494,644     -461,970
  Treasury Stock                        0            0            0            0
  Capital Surplus                 819,581      811,268      800,523      624,759
  Other Stockholder Equity         -1,617       -1,204       -1,164       -1,373
  Total Stockholder Equity        231,244      264,028      304,829      161,518
  Net Tangible Assets             231,244      264,028      304,829      161,518


Annual Cash Flow:                                    All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                      Dec31,2010     Dec31,2009     Dec31,2008

  Net Income                            -66,265        -51,506        -85,501
Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                            6,991          6,882          3,415
  Adjustments to Net Income              14,528         13,097         13,192
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls           61,411        -71,398         -3,328
  Changes in Liabilities                -13,913         72,186         13,811
  Changes in Inventories                      0              0              0
  Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's              0           -867         -4,219
  Total Cash Flow fr Operations           6,834        -61,783        -62,630

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                   -3,548         -4,589         -4,884
  Investments                            -8,022       -142,829        -62,944
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing               0              0              0
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing         -11,570       -147,418        -67,828

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                              0              0              0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock               7,377        196,887        101,614
  Net Borrowings                              0              0              0
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing               0              0              0
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing           7,377        196,887        101,614

  Effect of Exchange Rate Change              0              0              0
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s           2,641        -12,314        -28,844

Quarterly Cash Flow:                                   All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                  Sep30,2011  Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010

  Net Income                        -40,685     -51,506     -32,674     -34,546

Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                        2,089       2,194       1,702       1,419
  Adjustments to Net Income           5,778       4,476       4,286       4,289
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls       -4,258      -2,354      10,212      -3,747
  Changes in Liabilities               -649      13,629       7,328       9,432
  Changes in Inventories             -3,428           0           0           0
  Changes in Other Oper'g Acts            0      -1,892        -428       1,221
  Total Cash Flow f Operations      -41,912     -35,453      -9,574     -21,932

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures               -3,431      -1,282        -303        -415
  Investments                        80,589      48,580    -121,289      18,854
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing           0           0           0         -31
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing      71,396      47,298    -121,592      18,408

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                          0           0           0           0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock           2,824       6,483     171,508       1,880
  Net Borrowings                          0           0           0           0
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing           0           0           0           0
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing       2,824       6,483     171,508       1,880

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg             0           0           0           0
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.       32,308      18,328      40,342      -1,644


SGEN   Seattle Genetics Inc.              [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
                                          or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28?    0.0000       P/E Ratio > 5?             0.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  3.0000       Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    0.0000

Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   0.0601       Inventory/Sales < 5%?      1.0000
Sales < $1 billion?        3.0000       Operating Margin < 7.5%?  -0.0252

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        1.0000       Long-Term Debt Service:    3.0000
LTD Being Reduced?         1.0000       Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         2.6150       Working Capital >= 1.5?    0.3821
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      3.0000       Debt / Assets < 1?         1.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           1.7392       Inventory Turnover > 1?    0.0563
Shares Out Decreasing?     1.8000       Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion?  0.7246
                                        Profit Margin > 7.5%?     -3.0000
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000       EPS Annual Growth > 10%?  -3.0000
Enterprise Value/Revenue:  3.0000       EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%?     0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:  -1.5543       EPS Growth Consistent?     2.4000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0000       Collection < 45 days?      0.6605
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%?   3.0000       Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1?    3.0000
EPS Annual Growth > 10%?  -3.0000       Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%?   1.0000

Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          2.3315       % Held by Insiders  < 5%?  3.0000
Beta > 1.25?               0.8080       % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.5612
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?     -0.0651       % Held by Institut. > 30?  2.9700
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500: -0.0327       Short Ratio > 5?           2.1800
Price/Book Value < 3?     -3.0000       Short % of Float > 20?     1.5400
Return on Assets > 17%?   -1.5353       Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F: -1.6359       Positive Free Cash Flow?   0.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  0.0000       Price to C.F./sh. Ratio:  -2.2217
                                        Cash Flow / Assets >.10?  -1.5827

SGEN    Seattle Genetics Inc.           Overall Zenith Index:      0.8403


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Intrinsic Value by Projected Earnings Growth Method:

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As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for Seattle Genetics:
Symbol? SGEN
Total Months Available: 129
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  17.45   13.94     21.41   12.29     22.40   12.46

RANGE   =  22.40  TO   12.29            Close =  17.10
CHANNEL =  17.45  TO   13.94           Degree =   3
Volatility =  20.53%                    Index =   6
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The "ultimate systems" are inconclusive, giving no clear confirmed signals.

The corresponding trades for the above chart are shown in tabular form below.



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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News - 1
Comparison - 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index - 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings < 1%+ 1
Cash Flow + 1
Ratios - 1
Market Grader - 1
Intrinsic Value DCF - 1
Intrinsic Value DDM - 1
Stock Scout + 1
Projected Earnings - 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts - 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
Moving Average + 1
Right Time Study - 1
Stock Fetcher - 1
Point & Figure - 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart - 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network + 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems 0
Total - 10
Place 1,650 shares of Seattle Genetics (SGEN) on the Active List.