01-23-2010: Sturm, Ruger & Company (RGR): Company Declares Itself Not Responsible for Shooting Deaths

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Recommendation

Sturm, Ruger & Company

Sturm, Ruger & Co. (RGR) is an established gun maker in the U.S. A look at the company's website indicates the importance of an expiration of a ban on assault weapons in the U.S. which helped to boost sales dramatically. Our interest here is not so much social conscience investing, because we do believe gun control in this country is lacking and essential, but just to see if we can make money. In that regard, Sturm, Ruger has a very high Zenith Index and is liked by at least one analyst and a lot of researchers because of its strong fundamentals. The company also pays a healthy better than 3% dividend. It is considered a "low risk" investment.

What appears to be holding it back the most is a projected earnings for next year sharply below the earnings for this year. That could boost its p/e ratio from the current 7 level back to around 16.

We think the company has very responsible corporate governance by just about any measurable standard. No one owns more than 10% of the outstanding shares and Ruger has repurchased the family's outstanding shares. Ruger has diverged a bit into selling accessories for the gun enthusiast such as caps, mugs, back packs, clothing, and other items, almost all featuring its famous trade mark.

One mistake we made was to fail to check the average daily volume, which falls below our normal requirement of 300,000 shares, but not by very much, making this still a viable trading stock. We seem always to miss something at the outset of a review, but then, that is the purpose of the review.

There is almost no recent news on this company, although from earlier years there are plenty of lawsuits and safety issues raised by states seeking to capitalize on an attempt to hold gun manufacturers responsible for shooting deaths. This effort failed in the early 2000's and has not been re-attempted.



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Sturm, Ruger & Co. Inc.          (RGR  )    Sector: Consumer Goods
One Lacey Place                  Industry: Sporting Goods
Southport, CT 06890              Exchange: NYSE

Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and
sale of firearms in the United States. The company offers its
products under -æRuger-Æ name in four product categories, including
single-shot, autoloading, bolt-action, and lever action rifles; over
and under shotguns; rimfire autoloading and centerfire autoloading
pistols; and single action and double action revolvers. It also
manufactures and sells accessories and replacement parts for its
firearms. In addition, the company manufactures and sells investment
castings made from steel alloys. It sells its firearms through a
network of selected licensed independent wholesale distributors, as
well as markets investment castings through manufacturer-Æs
representatives to commercial, sporting goods, and military sectors.
The company was founded in 1948 and is based in Southport,
Connecticut.

Last Trade:  11.18                     52-Week Range:  15.20 -   5.98
Trade Date:  01-22                     Avg. Volume:    272,284 Shares
Index Membership: S&P 600 SmallCap                 Employees:   1,145

Corporate Governance:
Sturm, Ruger & Co. Inc.'s Corporate Governance Quotient (CGQ-«) as of
3-Jan-10 is better than 82% of S&P 600 companies and 87.6% of
Consumer Durables & Apparel companies.

     EPS:   1.43     Dividend Amount: $  0.38       Yield:         3.40%
                    Ex-Dividend Date: 10-Nov-09   Mkt Cap: $    213,220K
                        Payout Ratio:  6.00%

     Last Split Factor (new for old): 2:1      Split Date: 17-Sep-96

Key Statistics:

Enterprise Value: $    155,920K           Revenue (ttm)  : $    265,600K
                                             Gross Profit: $     42,750K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $     51,630K

Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm):  0.59           Revenue per Share: $   13.93
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm):   3.02       Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y): 70.20%


P/E Ratio (fwd projected): 15.97      P/E Ratio (current):   7.83

P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected):  0.00  Operating Margin:   16.87%
               Price/Sales Ratio:  0.79     Profit Margin:   10.30%
                Price/Book Value:  2.37        Book Value: $  4.62/sh.

Return on Assets:  23.34%        Net Income Avl to Common: $    27,350K
Return on Equity:  34.13%          Diluted Earnings/Share:     $  1.43
                              Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):      %1810.80%

Balance Sheet Items :                   Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr)                      (trailing 12 mo.)

       Total Cash: $     53,120K        Operating Cash Flow:$     49,260K
       Total Debt: $          0K        Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$     35,090K
Total Debt/Equity:         0.00
 Total Cash/Share:      $  2.79
    Current Ratio:         2.80

Share Statistics:                       Stock Price History:

    Shares Outstanding:   19,070K       Stk 52-Week Change:  66.06%
                 Float:   18,790K       S&P 500 52-Wk Chng:  34.92%
  Sh. Short % of Float:    27.20%        50-Day Moving Avg:  10.40
           Short Ratio:    19.20        200-Day Moving Avg:  11.88
% Held by Institutions:    91.80%                     Beta:  -0.18
    % Held by Insiders:     1.21%

Analysts' Estimates:               Cur. Qtr   Next Qtr  Cur. Year  Next Year
___________________________          Dec-09     Mar-10     Dec-09     Dec-10

  Average Earnings Estimate           0.28       0.15       1.40       0.70
  Average Revenue  Estimate             0M         0M         0M         0M

Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):

Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr): 0.000          EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY): 0.000
  PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected): 0.000                 P/E Ratio (ttm): 0.149
      Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY): 0.000


Annual Income Statements:                          All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          31-Dec-08    31-Dec-07    31-Dec-06

  Total Revenue                            181,483      156,485      167,620
  Cost of Revenue                          138,730      117,186      143,382
  Gross Profit                              42,753       39,299       24,238

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                         0            0            0
  Selling, General & Administrative         30,056       28,770       24,024
  Non-Recurring Expenses                      -840        1,414          494
  Other Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Total Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Operating Income or Loss                  13,537        9,115         -280

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net              441        7,544        2,123
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes          13,978       16,659        1,843
  Interest Expense                               0            0            0
  Income Before Taxes                       13,978       16,659        1,843
  Income Tax Expense                         5,312        6,330          739
  Minority Interest                              0            0            0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s            8,666       10,329        1,104

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                        0            0            0
  Extraordinary Items                            0            0            0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                   0            0            0
  Other Items                                    0            0            0
  Net Income                                 8,666       10,329        1,104

  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts            0            0            0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shares          8,666       10,329        1,104


Quarterly Income Statements:                           All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                    3-Oct-09    4-Jul-09    4-Apr-09    31-Dec-08

  Total Revenue                       71,186      72,391      63,529      58,491
  Cost of Revenue                     49,404      47,359      44,003      41,745
  Gross Profit                        21,782      25,032      19,526      16,746

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                   0           0           0           0
  Selling, General & Adminis.         10,451      11,056      10,092       8,182
  Non-Recurring Expenses                   0           0           0        -840
  Other Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Operating Income or Loss            11,331      13,976       9,434       9,404

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net         44         107         -50        -115
  Earnings Before Int. & Taxes        11,375      14,083       9,384       9,289
  Interest Expense                       -89          83          18           0
  Income Before Taxes                 11,464      14,000       9,366       9,289
  Income Tax Expense                   4,356       5,320       3,559       3,530
  Minority Interest                        0           0           0           0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s      7,108       8,680       5,807       5,759

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                  0           0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                      0           0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes             0           0           0           0
  Other Items                              0           0           0           0
  Net Income                           7,108       8,680       5,807       5,759

  Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s            0           0           0           0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shs       7,108       8,680       5,807       5,759


Annual Balance Sheets:                                All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                        31-Dec-08      31-Dec-07      31-Dec-06
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                  9,688          5,106          7,316
  Short Term Investments                  18,558         30,504         22,026
  Net Receivables                         32,209         21,514         26,354
  Inventory                               11,939         13,297         24,406
  Other Current Assets                     3,374          3,091          1,683
  Total Current Assets                    75,768         73,512         81,785

  Long-Term Investments                        0              0              0
  Property, Plant & Equipt                26,219         22,078         22,961
  Goodwill                                     0              0              0
  Intangible Assets                            0              0              0
  Accumulated Amortization                     0              0              0
  Other Assets                             3,030          2,666          8,690
  Deferred Long Term Asset Charges         7,743          3,626          3,630
  Total Assets                           112,760        101,882        117,066

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                        14,406          8,513          7,396
  Short/Current Long Term Debt             1,000              0              0
  Other Current Liabilities               14,112         11,735         13,867
  Total Current Liabilities               29,518         20,248         21,263

  Long Term Debt                               0              0              0
  Other Liabilities                       17,639          5,565          8,477
  Deferred LT Liability Charges                0              0              0
  Minority Interest                            0              0              0
  Negative Goodwill                            0              0              0
  Total Liabilities                       47,157         25,813         29,740

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Stocks Options Warrants                0              0              0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock                   0              0              0
  Preferred Stock                              0              0              0
  Common Stock                            22,799         22,788         22,639
  Retained Earnings                       93,500         84,834         74,505
  Treasury Stock                         -30,153        -20,000              0
  Capital Surplus                          2,442          1,836          2,615
  Other Stockholder Equity               -22,985        -13,389        -12,433
  Total Stockholder Equity                65,603         76,069         87,326
  Net Tangible Assets                     65,603         76,069         87,326


Quarterly Balance Sheets:                               All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                 3-Oct-09     4-Jul-09     4-Apr-09     31-Dec-08
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents          5,881        3,890        3,922        9,688
  Short Term Investments           47,237       39,704       29,978       18,558
  Net Receivables                  32,087       32,852       31,355       32,209
  Inventory                         7,048        6,065        8,312       11,939
  Other Current Assets              2,646        2,558        5,954        3,374
  Total Current Assets             94,899       85,069       79,521       75,768

  Long-Term Investments                 0            0            0            0
  Property, Plant & Equipt        31,528       29,723       28,258       26,219
  Goodwill                              0            0            0            0
  Intangible Assets                     0            0            0            0
  Accumulated Amortization              0            0            0            0
  Other Assets                      3,853        4,525        2,968        3,030
  Deferred LT Asset Charges        18,457       16,079       13,815       14,112
  Total Assets                    139,947      128,522      118,532      112,760

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                 15,468       12,146       13,379       14,406
  Current Portion LT Debt               0            0            0        1,000
  Other Current Liabilities             0            0            0            0
  Total Current Liabilities        33,925       28,225       27,194       29,518

  Long Term Debt                        0            0            0            0
  Other Liabilities                17,907       17,838       17,716       17,639
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges             0            0            0            0
  Minority Interest                     0            0            0            0
  Negative Goodwill                     0            0            0            0
  Total Liabilities                51,832       46,063       44,910       47,157

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, WarrantS               0            0            0            0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock            0            0            0            0
  Preferred Stock                       0            0            0            0
  Common Stock                     22,827       22,817       22,799       22,799
  Retained Earnings               111,110      106,347       99,307       93,500
  Treasury Stock                  -30,167      -30,167      -30,167      -30,153
  Capital Surplus                   7,330        6,447        4,668        2,442
  Other Stockholder Equity        -22,985      -22,985      -22,985      -22,985
  Total Stockholder Equity         88,115       82,459       73,622       65,603
  Net Tangible Assets              88,115       82,459       73,622       65,603


Annual Cash Flow:                                    All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                       31-Dec-08      31-Dec-07      31-Dec-06

  Net Income                              8,666          8,680          1,104
Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                            5,365          4,372          3,852
  Adjustments to Net Income              -4,734         -1,281         -3,591
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls          -10,173          2,371         -2,230
  Changes in Liabilities                  8,705         -1,452          2,568
  Changes in Inventories                  1,358         11,109         24,320
  Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's          1,995         -6,128          4,196
  Total Cash Flow fr Operations          11,182         19,320         30,219

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                   -9,488         -4,468         -3,906
  Investments                            11,946         -8,478           -100
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing              95         12,542          2,251
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing           2,553           -404         -1,755

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                              0              0              0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock             -10,153        -21,126        -25,205
  Net Borrowings                          1,000              0              0
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing               0              0              0
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing          -9,153        -21,126        -25,205

  Effect of Exchange Rate Change              0              0              0
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s           4,582         -2,210          3,259


Quarterly Cash Flow:                                   All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                   3-Oct-09    4-Jul-09    4-Apr-09    31-Dec-08

  Net Income                          7,108       8,680       5,807       5,759

Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                        1,662       1,663       1,662       1,847
  Adjustments to Net Income            -228       1,956         614      -5,471
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls          790      -1,923         198      -6,305
  Changes in Liabilities              4,512         732         672       5,914
  Changes in Inventories               -727       2,247       3,627       5,171
  Changes in Other Oper'g Acts        2,149        -273      -2,211       3,625
  Total Cash Flow f Operations       15,266      13,082      10,369      10,540

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures               -3,472      -3,128      -3,701      -3,108
  Investments                        20,029     -37,288     -11,420       1,477
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing     -27,520      27,564           0           0
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing     -10,963     -12,852     -15,121      -1,631

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                     -2,345      -1,640           0           0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock               0           0         -14      -2,801
  Net Borrowings                          0           0      -1,000       1,000
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing          33       1,378           0           0
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing           0           0           0           0

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg             0           0           0           0
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.        1,991           0         -32           8


RGR    Sturm, Ruger & Co. Inc.            [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
                                          or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28?    3.0000       P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate: -2.0000       Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    1.7533

Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   2.9114       Inventory/Sales < 5%?      0.7600
Sales < $1 billion?        3.0000       Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.4446

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        1.0000       Long-Term Debt Service:    3.0000
LTD Being Reduced?         1.0000       Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         1.3985       Working Capital >= 1.5?    0.7150
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      3.0000       Debt / Assets < 1?         1.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           1.1192       Inventory Turnover > 1?    0.6744
Shares Out Decreasing?     0.0000       Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion?  3.0000
                                        Profit Margin > 7.5%?      1.3733
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     1.7647       EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0000
Enterprise Value/Revenue:  0.3933       EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%?     0.0800
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   0.4314       EPS Growth Consistent?     1.8000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    3.0000       Collection < 45 days?      0.6947
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%?   3.0000       Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1?    3.0000
EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0000       Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%?   1.0000

Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          3.0000       % Held by Insiders  < 5%?  3.0000
Beta > 1.25?              -0.1440       % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.5447
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?     -0.3982       % Held by Institut. > 30?  3.0000
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  2.3281       Short Ratio > 5?           3.0000
Price/Book Value < 3?      1.6300       Short % of Float > 20?     1.3600
Return on Assets > 17%?    1.3729       Average Volume > 100,000?  2.7228

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  1.4038       Positive Free Cash Flow?   1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  1.0000       Price to C.F./sh. Ratio:   0.4340
                                        Cash Flow / Assets >.10?   2.5074

RGR     Sturm, Ruger & Co. Inc.         Overall Zenith Index:      1.5730


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Ownership:

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The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for Sturm Ruger & Co.:
Symbol? RGR
Total Months Available: 120
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  13.71    5.98     15.20   10.90     13.70    9.61

RANGE   =  15.20  TO    5.98            Close =  11.09
CHANNEL =  13.70  TO   10.90           Degree =   3
Volatility =  25.25%                    Index =   7
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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News - 1
Comparison + 1
Industry + 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index + 1
GAAP vs. non-GAAP Earnings < 1%+ 1
Cash Flow + 1
Ratios + 1
Market Grader + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Intrinsic Value DDM 0
Stock Scout + 1
Projected Earnings - 1
Research Reports + 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites + 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest - 1
Sentiment - 1
Standard & Poor's + 1
Moving Average + 1
Right Time Study + 1
Stock Fetcher - 1
Point & Figure - 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network - 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems - 1
Total + 8
Place 2,740 shares of Sturm, Ruger & Co. (RGR) on the Active List.