Corporate Webpages Paccar Inc.
Paccar Inc. (PCAR) gets its name from the old Pacific Car &
Foundry Corporation, based in Washington State. It switched
from the manufacture of railroad cars as railroads' importance
declined to the more timely manufacture of trucks. Its brands
include the Peterbilt, Kenworth, and European Leyland and DAF names.
Most of Paccar's revenues come from outside the U.S. and its
story like many other American manufacturers consists of plant
closings in the U.S. and establlishment of them elsewhere in
places like Brazil, China, and Mexico, thus exporting thousands
of jobs overseas.
The business of truck-making is extremely cyclical, having ups
and downs with the economy, doing very well in the 1980's,
showing signs of improvement now, but having some very lean
periods in between. Most of Paccar's engines are made by
Cummins Engine, a company that seems to be doing better than
Paccar itself. Chrysler is one of Paccar's top competitors.
Paccar is the second-largest truck manufacturer in the world.
From its Washington State headquarters, it has many plants
located all over the U.S. in places like California and Mississippi.
The company is considered to have strong financials by many
researchers, but it has a very marginal Zenith Index. It is a
very recent quarterly cash flow problem after years of positive
flow and the cyclical nature of erratic earnings growth that
punished this company most in the Zenith Index.
The company is known for having adopted extremely tight poison
pill tactics to prevent a takeover by another company, a
so-called misnomered "shareholder rights" program. Companies
that do this are more worried about retaining current management than
about shareholder well-being. But the company does offer a
moderate dividend. The company has low debt which helps its
financial ratio picture greatly. The company has little or no
financial risk compared to its competitors.
Our overall negative Decision Matrix rating on this stock
appears to be tied to a very negative-looking chart based upon
declining prospects for economic recovery which seems to track
very well the immediate earnings prospects for this company.
Most of Paccar's revenues are coming from overseas. The world
economic picture is beginning to look bleaker.
08-09-2011: Paccar Inc. (PCAR): Tied to the World Economic Picture
(WAIT FOR PAGE TO LOAD COMPLETELY BEFORE LINKS WORK.)
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Company Profile |
Company History |
News |
Comparison |
Similar Companies Performance:
Bond Issue |
Zenith Index |
Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is consider strong and > 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.
PACCAR Inc. (PCAR ) Sector: Consumer Goods
777-106th Avenue NE Industry: Trucks & Other Vehicles
Bellevue, WA 98004 Exchange: Nasdaq
PACCAR Inc, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and
distributes light-, medium-, and heavy-duty trucks and related aftermarket
parts primarily in the United States and Europe. It markets its heavy-duty
diesel trucks under the Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF nameplates. The
company sells its products for use in over-the-road and off-highway
hauling of freight, petroleum, wood products, construction, and other
materials. The company also offers finance and leasing products and
services to its customers and dealers. In addition, it manufactures and
sells industrial winches. The company sells its trucks and related
aftermarket parts primarily to independent dealers. PACCAR Inc was founded
in 1905 and is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington.
Last Trade: 39.20 52-Week Range: 58.75 - 37.48
Trade Date: 08-07 Avg. Volume: 2,915,670 Shares
Index Membership: Employees: 22,000
Corporate Governance:
Board (Low Risk), Audit (Low Risk), Compensation (Low Risk),
Shareholder Rights (High Risk).
EPS: 1.97 Dividend Amount: $ 0.72 Yield: 1.80%
Ex-Dividend Date: Aug 16, 20 Mkt Cap: $ 14,330,000K
Payout Ratio: 38.00%
Last Split Factor (new for old): 3:2 Split Date: Oct 10, 20
Key Statistics:
Enterprise Value: $ 18,310,000K Revenue (ttm) : $ 12,840,000K
Gross Profit: $ 1,670,000K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $ 1,670,000K
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm): 1.43 Revenue per Share: $ 35.13
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm): 10.98 Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y): 60.70%
P/E Ratio (fwd projected): 10.68 P/E Ratio (current): 19.90
P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected): 0.90 Operating Margin: 8.02%
Price/Sales Ratio: 1.11 Profit Margin: 5.63%
Price/Book Value: 2.41 Book Value: $ 16.18/sh.
Return on Assets: 4.33% Net Income Avl to Common: $ 722,700K
Return on Equity: 13.25% Diluted Earnings/Share: $ 1.97
Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy): 140.70%
Balance Sheet Items : Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr) (trailing 12 mo.)
Total Cash: $ 2,850,000K Operating Cash Flow:$ 1,540,000K
Total Debt: $ 6,830,000K Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$ -3,540,000K
Total Debt/Equity: 115.56
Total Cash/Share: $ 7.81
Current Ratio: 3.73
Share Statistics: Stock Price History:
Shares Outstanding: 365,500K Stk 52-Week Change: -13.77%
Float: 339,630K S&P 500 52-Wk Chng: 6.93%
Sh. Short % of Float: 2.00% 50-Day Moving Avg: 47.83
Short Ratio: 2.70 200-Day Moving Avg: 50.23
% Held by Institutions: 57.80% Beta: 1.25
% Held by Insiders: 11.89%Analysts' Estimates: Cur. Qtr Next Qtr Cur. Year Next Year
___________________________ Sep 11 Dec 11 Dec 11 Dec 12
Average Earnings Estimate 0.70 0.76 2.62 3.67
Average Revenue Estimate 870M 4,040M 14,520M 17,400M
Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):
Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr): 8.333 EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY): 8.333
PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected): 4.167 P/E Ratio (ttm): 5.000
Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY): 12.500
Annual Income Statements: All numbers in thousands)
Period Ending Dec31,2010 Dec31,2009 Dec31,2008
Total Revenue 9,871,300 7,584,700 14,972,500
Cost of Revenue 8,198,800 6,483,400 11,736,900
Gross Profit 1,672,500 1,101,300 3,235,600
Operating Expenses:
Research & Development 238,500 199,200 341,800
Selling, General & Administrative 481,500 434,900 581,400
Non-Recurring Expenses 61,000 24,800 0
Other Operating Expenses 451,600 456,100 102,900
Total Operating Expenses 1,232,600 1,115,000 0
Operating Income or Loss 439,900 -13,700 2,209,500
Income from Continuing Operations:
Total Other Income/Expenses Net 442,700 524,100 86,400
Earnings Before Interest & Taxes 873,300 466,800 2,295,900
Interest Expense 213,000 291,800 831,900
Income Before Taxes 660,300 175,000 1,464,000
Income Tax Expense 202,700 63,100 446,100
Minority Interest 0 0 0
Net Income from Continuing Op.s 457,600 111,900 1,017,900
Non-recurring Events:
Discontinued Operations 0 0 0
Extraordinary Items 0 0 0
Effect of Accounting Changes 0 0 0
Other Items 0 0 0
Net Income 457,600 111,900 1,017,900
Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts 0 0 0
Net Income Avail To Common Shares 457,600 111,900 1,017,900
Quarterly Income Statements: All numbers in thousands)
Period Ending Mar31,2011 Dec31,2010 Sep30,2010 Jun30,2010
Total Revenue 3,182,100 2,634,000 2,542,500 2,574,100
Cost of Revenue 2,632,300 2,456,900 2,019,200 1,954,900
Gross Profit 549,800 177,100 523,300 619,200
Operating Expenses:
Research & Development 68,400 65,400 59,900 58,400
Selling, General & Adminis. 133,100 129,900 116,200 119,800
Non-Recurring Expenses 10,500 5,400 13,700 23,500
Other Operating Expenses 110,500 116,100 109,400 104,800
Total Operating Expenses 322,500 316,800 299,200 306,500
Operating Income or Loss 227,300 -139,700 224,100 312,700
Income from Continuing Operations:
Total Other Income/Expenses Net 109,500 428,400 5,500 -105,700
Earnings Before Int. & Taxes 336,800 279,400 229,600 207,000
Interest Expense 50,500 40,500 52,800 58,400
Income Before Taxes 286,300 238,900 176,800 148,600
Income Tax Expense 93,000 69,100 56,900 49,000
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 Net Income from Continuing Op.s 193,300 169,800 119,900 99,600
Non-recurring Events:
Discontinued Operations 0 0 0 0
Extraordinary Items 0 0 0 0
Effect of Accounting Changes 0 0 0 0
Other Items 0 0 0 0
Net Income 193,300 169,800 119,900 99,600
Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s 0 0 0 0
Net Income Avail To Common Shs 193,300 169,800 119,900 99,600
Annual Balance Sheets: All Numbers in Thousands
Period Ending Dec31,2010 Dec31,2009 Dec31,2008
Current Assets:
Cash & Cash Equivalents 2,040,800 1,912,000 1,955,200
Short Term Investments 450,500 219,500 175,400
Net Receivables 610,400 554,700 910,400
Inventory 534,000 632,100 658,100
Other Current Assets 218,600 224,300 0
Total Current Assets 3,854,300 3,542,600 3,699,100
Long-Term Investments 6,070,900 6,497,700 8,036,400
Property, Plant & Equipt 3,693,000 3,774,700 3,742,900
Goodwill 0 0 0
Intangible Assets 0 0 0
Accumulated Amortization 0 0 0
Other Assets 615,900 754,000 771,400
Deferred Long Term Asset Charges 0 0 0
Total Assets 14,234,100 14,569,000 16,249,800
Current Liabilities:
Accounts Payable 1,952,400 1,705,200 2,077,800
Short/Current Long Term Debt 2,395,200 3,011,200 3,576,200
Other Current Liabilities 0 0 0
Total Current Liabilities 4,347,600 4,716,400 5,654,000
Long Term Debt 2,880,800 3,061,600 3,908,600
Other Liabilities 370,300 405,300 470,800
Deferred LT Liability Charges 1,277,600 1,282,000 1,369,700
Minority Interest 0 0 0
Negative Goodwill 0 0 0
Total Liabilities 8,876,300 9,465,300 11,403,100
Stockholder Equity:
Misc. Stocks Options Warrants 0 0 0
Redeemable Perferred Stock 0 0 0
Preferred Stock 0 0 0
Common Stock 365,300 364,400 363,100
Retained Earnings 4,846,100 4,640,500 4,724,700
Treasury Stock 0 -17,400 -17,400
Capital Surplus 105,100 80,000 46,100
Other Stockholder Equity 41,300 36,200 -269,800
Total Stockholder Equity 5,357,800 5,103,700 4,846,700
Net Tangible Assets 5,357,800 5,103,700 4,846,700
Quarterly Balance Sheets: All Numbers in Thousands
Period Ending Mar31,2011 Dec31,2010 Sep30,2010 Jun30,2010
Current Assets:
Cash & Cash Equivalents 1,689,700 2,040,800 2,057,200 1,827,400
Short Term Investments 1,001,700 450,500 354,900 294,900
Net Receivables 7,108,400 610,400 642,100 640,500
Inventory 590,300 534,000 512,800 481,400
Other Current Assets 207,800 218,600 214,900 222,500
Total Current Assets 10,597,900 3,854,300 3,781,900 3,466,700
Long-Term Investments 0 6,070,900 5,907,700 5,775,600
Property, Plant & Equipt 3,896,200 3,693,000 3,654,500 3,486,500
Goodwill 0 0 0 0
Intangible Assets 0 0 0 0
Accumulated Amortization 0 0 0 0
Other Assets 639,600 615,900 639,400 693,500
Deferred LT Asset Charges 0 0 0 0
Total Assets 15,133,700 14,234,100 13,983,500 13,422,300
Current Liabilities:
Accounts Payable 2,360,900 1,952,400 1,862,200 2,389,200
Current Portion LT Debt 2,614,700 2,395,200 2,060,800 2,073,800
Other Current Liabilities 0 0 0 0
Total Current Liabilities 4,975,600 4,347,600 3,923,000 4,463,000
Long Term Debt 2,797,300 2,880,800 3,181,100 3,123,600
Other Liabilities 380,300 370,300 902,900 841,300
Deferred LT Liab. Charges 1,331,600 1,277,600 660,500 0
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0
Negative Goodwill 0 0 0 0
Total Liabilities 9,484,800 8,876,300 8,667,500 8,427,900
Stockholder Equity:
Misc. Options, WarrantS 0 0 0 0
Redeemable Perferred Stock 0 0 0 0
Preferred Stock 0 0 0 0
Common Stock 365,400 365,300 364,600 364,500
Retained Earnings 4,995,600 4,846,100 4,829,900 4,742,800
Treasury Stock 0 0 0 0
Capital Surplus 114,400 105,100 83,100 78,000
Other Stockholder Equity 173,500 41,300 38,400 -190,900
Total Stockholder Equity 5,648,900 5,357,800 5,316,000 4,994,400
Net Tangible Assets 5,648,900 5,357,800 5,316,000 4,994,400
Annual Cash Flow: All Numbers in Thousands
Period Ending Dec31,2010 Dec31,2009 Dec31,2008
Net Income 457,600 169,800 1,017,900
Operating Activites:
Depreciation 623,200 651,700 649,400
Adjustments to Net Income 118,900 222,600 232,800
Changes in Accounts Recv'bls -43,400 805,000 -249,000
Changes in Liabilities 237,200 -400,200 -269,800
Changes in Inventories 96,600 53,400 -85,200
Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's 0 -71,100 8,800
Total Cash Flow fr Operations 1,551,400 0 1,373,300
Investing Activities:
Capital Expenditures -883,800 -971,000 -1,550,000
Investments 24,600 761,500 1,046,000
Other Cash Flows fr Investing 0 520,100 252,100
Total Cash Flows fr Investing -467,100 310,600 -251,900
Financing Acitivies:
Dividends Paid -251,700 -232,100 -629,200
Sale or Purchase of Stock 22,000 17,600 -219,100
Net Borrowings -730,700 -1,601,700 -19,800
Other Cash Flows fr Financing 0 0 0
Total Cash Flows fr Financing -960,400 0 0
Effect of Exchange Rate Change 4,900 89,100 -87,800
Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s 128,800 -43,200 97,100
Quarterly Cash Flow: All Numbers in Thousands
Period Ending Mar31,2011 Dec31,2010 Sep30,2010 Jun30,2010
Net Income 193,300 169,800 119,900 99,600
Operating Activites:
Depreciation 162,400 623,200 -310,700 145,300
Adjustments to Net Income 20,200 -374,700 338,400 155,700
Changes in Accounts Recv'bls -75,800 -118,900 -1,900 77,900
Changes in Liabilities -4,100 261,900 -24,700 19,300
Changes in Inventories 0 96,600 0 0
Changes in Other Oper'g Acts 0 -269,300 242,300 16,300
Total Cash Flow f Operations 459,300 388,600 363,300 514,100
Investing Activities:
Capital Expenditures -357,500 -289,600 -218,900 -186,200
Investments -566,400 -239,700 21,300 101,800
Other Cash Flows fr Investing 0 219,000 53,800 30,900
Total Cash Flows fr Investing -850,700 -310,300 -143,800 -53,500
Financing Acitivies:
Dividends Paid -43,800 -153,400 -32,800 -32,700
Sale or Purchase of Stock 1,600 12,200 2,200 4,000
Net Borrowings 31,800 42,100 -156,400 -294,800
Other Cash Flows fr Financing 0 0 0 0
Total Cash Flows fr Financing -10,400 -99,100 -187,000 -323,500
Effect of Exchange Rate Chg 0 4,400 126,600 0
Change in Cash & Cash Equiv. -351,100 -16,400 159,100 43,400
PCAR PACCAR Inc. [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28? 1.4070 P/E Ratio > 5? 1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate: 0.7000 Forward P/E Ratio < 28? 2.6217
Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3? 2.0721 Inventory/Sales < 5%? 0.9243
Sales < $1 billion? 0.1013 Operating Margin < 7.5%? 0.9352
Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40? 0.0035 Long-Term Debt Service: 1.8598
LTD Being Reduced? 2.4000 Short-Term Debt Service: 3.0000
Current Ratio > 2? 1.8650 Working Capital >= 1.5? 0.9390
Leverage Ratio < 20%? 0.9615 Debt / Assets < 1? 3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1? 1.7682 Inventory Turnover > 1? 1.8304
Shares Out Decreasing? 1.2000 Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion? 0.1047
Profit Margin > 7.5%? 0.7506
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%? 3.0000 EPS Annual Growth > 10%? 3.0000
Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.9533 EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%? -3.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA: 1.5686 EPS Growth Consistent? 2.4000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%? 3.0000 Collection < 45 days? 1.9938
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%? 3.0000 Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1? 0.3333
EPS Annual Growth > 10%? 3.0000 Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%? 1.2929
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%? 1.7683 % Held by Insiders < 5%? 0.4205
Beta > 1.25? 1.0000 % Held by Institut. < 50? 0.8651
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA? -0.1837 % Held by Institut. > 30? 1.9267
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500: 0.4620 Short Ratio > 5? 0.5400
Price/Book Value < 3? 1.5900 Short % of Float > 20? 0.1000
Return on Assets > 17%? 0.2547 Average Volume > 100,000? 3.0000
Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F: 0.4350 Positive Free Cash Flow? 0.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow? 1.0000 Price to C.F./sh. Ratio: -0.2891
Cash Flow / Assets >.10? -2.3392
PCAR PACCAR Inc. Overall Zenith Index: 1.2354
Financial Statements |
Financial Ratios |
. . . . . . . . . . . . 1 = Highest , 10 = Lowest
Market Grader |
Intrinsic Value (DCF) |
Intrinsic Value by Discounted Cash Flow Method:
Intrinsic Value (PEG) |
Intrinsic Value by Projected Earnings Growth Method:
Stock Scout |
We find "Scout" to be a bit biased toward the high end, so anything under a 6 is considered a negative, 6 and above, positive.
Projected Earnings |
Research Reports |
Analysts' Opinions |
Insider Activity |
Institutional Activity |
Institutional Orders to Buy or Sell:
Sentiment |
Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.
Short Interest Ratio |
As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.
Stock Report |
Management's Discussion of Results of Operations Excerpts |
Moving Average Chart |
Right Time Study |
Channeling Potential |
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility. Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.
Results for Paccar Inc.:
Symbol? PCAR
Total Months Available: 43
Months in Cycle? 4
Months Covered by Periods: 12
Period 1 Period 2 Period 3
H1 L1 H2 L2 H3 L3
55.50 39.77 58.75 46.50 54.58 43.01
RANGE = 58.75 TO 39.77 Close = 42.81
CHANNEL = 54.58 TO 46.50 Degree = 4
Volatility = 18.87% Index = 7
Intraday Chart |
20 Days:
Stock Fetcher |
Point & Figure Chart |
Wall Street Analyzer |
Marketspace Chart |
Time Series Forecast |
Neural Network Prediction |
"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."
Ultimate Trading Systems |
The corresponding trades for the above chart are shown in tabular form below.
Recommendation |
| Factors | Weighted Points |
|---|---|
| News | - 1 |
| Comparison | - 1 |
| Industry | - 1 |
| Bond Issue | 0 |
| Zenith Index | + 1 |
| Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings < 1% | + 1 |
| Cash Flow | + 1 |
| Ratios | + 1 |
| Market Grader | + 1 |
| Intrinsic Value DCF | - 1 |
| Intrinsic Value DDM | - 1 |
| Stock Scout | - 1 |
| Projected Earnings | - 1 |
| Research Reports | + 1 |
| Analysts | + 1 |
| Executive Perquisites | - 1 |
| Insider Activity | - 1 |
| Institutional Activity | + 1 |
| Management Reporting | + 1 |
| Short Interest | + 1 |
| Sentiment | - 1 |
| Standard & Poor's | + 1 |
| Moving Average | - 1 |
| Right Time Study | - 1 |
| Stock Fetcher | + 1 |
| Point & Figure | - 1 |
| Wall Street Analyzer | - 1 |
| Marketspace Chart | - 1 |
| Time Series Chart | - 1 |
| Neural Network | 0 |
| Stock Options | + 1 |
| Ultimate Trading Systems | - 1 |
| Total | - 4 |
Place 710 shares of Paccar Inc. (PCAR) on the Active List.
