12-04-2011: Opko Health, Inc. (OPK): Massive Insider Buying from the CEO

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Recommendation

Opko Health, Inc.

Opko Health Inc. is a pharmaceutical company that does a lot of research in ophthalmic, oncology, neurology, and infectious disease drugs, partnering with some big drug companies in some instances. It gets a lot of research grants from various organizations. Although it has been losing money consistently year after year, and into the projected future, it does have a viable revenue stream which gives value to the stock.

Any stock that is losing money is heavily penalized in our Decision Matrix, making this stock a short sale candidate. One of the main unusual features of this stock however, is rather massive insider buying and an executive compensation amount that is reasonable to miniscule. Institutions are also heavy buyers in this stock. Researchers and rating agencies have predictably turned thumbs down on the stock after strings of losses, but two analysts following this stock give it a strong buy 1.0 rating. They are looking at the revenue stream, not the earnings. Significant revenues are coming from overseas in places like Latin America where pharmaceutical selling is done by the company.

The company has made some acquisitions. The money it pours into research has eaten up any profits. The very strong insider buying from its CEO has been a chief attractor, and the stock has seen a lot of options action.

We were unable to detect any real news on the company of late outside of the extreme insider buying. The CEO owns 40% of the outstanding shares and bought 2,452,222 shares on October 4th at $3.60 in a private sale. The company is burning an alarming amount of cash, and stock has 29 price/sales, and 10.5 times book value. This leaves it difficult to analyze what is going on that is attracting both institutions and the CEO to make such massive investments. Of course the major "institutional" holders have the name "Frost" in them, which is also the name of the CEO. Since there is so much unexplained, we conclude the company is a short sale candidate for sure. A recent public offering brought in $100 million to the company further diluting the value of shares. The company has particular interests recently in a partnership in Mexico.

We weren't too thrilled with the company's website, but it does have a chairman's letter which is worth reading. It says virtually nothing about when or if the company will become profitable but it does have valuable patented assets and an active upcoming pipeline of new drugs.



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Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is consider strong and > 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Opko Health, Inc.                (OPK  )    Sector: Healthcare
4400 Biscayne Boulevard          Industry: Medical Appliances & Equipmen
Miami, FL 33137                  Exchange: NYSE

OPKO Health, Inc., a pharmaceutical and diagnostics company, engages in
the discovery, development, and commercialization of novel and proprietary
technologies primarily in the United States, Chile, and Mexico. It
provides a range of solutions, including molecular diagnostics tests,
proprietary pharmaceuticals, and vaccines to diagnose, treat, and prevent
neurological disorders, infectious diseases, oncology, and ophthalmologic
diseases. The company offers molecular diagnostic platform technology for
the rapid identification of molecules or immunobiomarkers; Alzheimer-Ęs
test for Alzheimer-Ęs diagnostic; and protein-based influenza vaccines to
provide multi-season and multi-strain protection against various influenza
virus strains, such as seasonal influenza strains, as well as global
influenza pandemic strains which include swine flu, and avian flu. It also
offers Oligonucleotide Therapeutics for the treatment of various
illnesses, including cancer, heart disease, metabolic disorders, and
genetic anomalies; and oligosaccharide for asthma and chronic obstructive
pulmonary diseases. In addition, the company provides Rolapitant, a potent
and antagonist; neurokinin-1, which has completed Phase II clinical trials
for prevention of chemotherapy induced nausea and vomiting, and
post-operative induced nausea and vomiting; and SCH 900978 that has
completed Phase II clinical trials for chronic cough. Further, it offers
bevasiranib, a drug candidate for the treatment of Wet AMD; and develops
Aquashunt, a shunt to be used in the treatment of glaucoma. Additionally,
the company involves in the development, commercialization, and sale of
ophthalmic diagnostic and imaging systems, and instrumentation products.
OPKO Health, Inc. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Miami,
Florida.

Last Trade:   5.10                     52-Week Range:   5.85 -   3.06
Trade Date:  12-03                     Avg. Volume:  1,830,050 Shares
Index Membership:                                  Employees:     220

Corporate Governance:
    Audit (Medium Concern), Board (High Concern), Compensation
    (Low Concern), Shareholder Rights (Low Concern).

     EPS:  -0.08     Dividend Amount: $  0.00       Yield:         0.00%
                    Ex-Dividend Date: N/A         Mkt Cap: $  1,460,000K
                        Payout Ratio:  0.00%

     Last Split Factor (new for old): N/A      Split Date: N/A

Key Statistics:

Enterprise Value: $  1,380,000K           Revenue (ttm)  : $     42,800K
                                             Gross Profit: $     16,380K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $    -15,050K

Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm): 32.29           Revenue per Share: $    0.16
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm): -91.84       Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y): 19.90%


P/E Ratio (fwd projected):  0.00      P/E Ratio (current):   0.00

P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected):  0.00  Operating Margin:  -46.88%
               Price/Sales Ratio: 34.04     Profit Margin:  -47.56%
                Price/Book Value: 14.21        Book Value: $  0.36/sh.

Return on Assets: -11.46%        Net Income Avl to Common: $   -24,490K
Return on Equity: -25.14%          Diluted Earnings/Share:     $ -0.08
                              Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):        0.00%

Balance Sheet Items :                   Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr)                      (trailing 12 mo.)

       Total Cash: $     87,420K        Operating Cash Flow:$    -13,750K
       Total Debt: $     12,550K        Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$     -5,610K
Total Debt/Equity:         9.76
 Total Cash/Share:      $  0.31
    Current Ratio:         5.81

Share Statistics:                       Stock Price History:

    Shares Outstanding:  285,700K       Stk 52-Week Change:  61.90%
                 Float:  132,270K       S&P 500 52-Wk Chng:   1.73%
  Sh. Short % of Float:     9.80%        50-Day Moving Avg:   5.20
           Short Ratio:     7.30        200-Day Moving Avg:   4.30
% Held by Institutions:     8.00%                     Beta:   1.16
    % Held by Insiders:    54.36%

Analysts' Estimates:               Cur. Qtr   Next Qtr  Cur. Year  Next Year
___________________________          Sep 11     Dec 11     Dec 11     Dec 12

  Average Earnings Estimate          -0.02      -0.05      -0.12      -0.14
  Average Revenue  Estimate             1M        16M        40M        35M

Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):

Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr):   0.000      EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY):   0.000
  PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected):   0.000             P/E Ratio (ttm):   0.000
      Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY):   4.810


Annual Income Statements:                          All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          Dec31,2010   Dec31,2009   Dec31,2008

  Total Revenue                             36,880       13,147        9,440
  Cost of Revenue                           20,501        9,567        8,559
  Gross Profit                              16,379        3,580          881

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                     7,908       12,881       21,562
  Selling, General & Administrative         25,700       16,719       16,484
  Non-Recurring Expenses                         0        2,000        1,398
  Other Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Total Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Operating Income or Loss                 -17,229      -28,020      -38,563

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net             -842       -2,034       -1,354
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes         -18,071      -30,054      -39,917
  Interest Expense                               0            0            0
  Income Before Taxes                      -18,071      -30,054      -39,917
  Income Tax Expense                           141         -294          -83
  Minority Interest                              0            0            0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s          -18,926      -30,113      -39,834

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                        0            0            0
  Extraordinary Items                            0            0            0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                   0            0            0
  Other Items                                    0            0            0
  Net Income                               -18,926      -30,113      -39,834

  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts       -2,624       -4,718         -217
  Net Income Avail To Common Shares        -21,550      -34,831      -40,051


Quarterly Income Statements:                           All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                   Sep30,2011  Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010

  Total Revenue                        3,395      10,142       8,648      20,618
  Cost of Revenue                      1,251       6,211       5,623      10,356
  Gross Profit                         2,144       3,931       3,025      10,262

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development               2,298       3,154       1,645       4,274
  Selling, General & Adminis.          4,312       5,939       6,466      11,340
  Non-Recurring Expenses                   0           0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Operating Income or Loss            -4,466      -5,162      -5,086      -5,352

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net       -656        -139          38         205
  Earnings Before Int. & Taxes        -5,122      -5,301      -5,048      -5,147
  Interest Expense                         0           0           0           0
  Income Before Taxes                 -5,122      -5,301      -5,048      -5,147
  Income Tax Expense                     -28          -6         233         -43
  Minority Interest                        0           0           0           0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s     -5,395      -5,746      -5,704      -5,135

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations             -2,841           0           0       4,462
  Extraordinary Items                      0           0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes             0           0           0           0
  Other Items                              0           0           0           0
  Net Income                          -8,236      -5,746      -5,704        -673

  Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s         -600        -615        -645        -645
  Net Income Avail To Common Shs      -8,836      -6,361      -6,349      -1,318


Annual Balance Sheets:                                All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                       Dec31,2010     Dec31,2009     Dec31,2008
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                 18,016         42,658          6,678
  Short Term Investments                       0              0              0
  Net Receivables                         13,317          8,767          1,148
  Inventory                               19,957         10,520          4,063
  Other Current Assets                     2,782          1,873          1,577
  Total Current Assets                    54,072         63,818         13,466

  Long-Term Investments                    5,114          4,447              0
  Property, Plant & Equipt                 2,729            593            659
  Goodwill                                 5,856          5,408          1,097
  Intangible Assets                        9,964         12,722          6,336
  Accumulated Amortization                     0              0              0
  Other Assets                               111            442            206
  Deferred Long Term Asset Charges             0              0              0
  Total Assets                            77,846         87,430         21,764

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                        12,909          8,702          7,615
  Short/Current Long Term Debt            14,690          4,321             97
  Other Current Liabilities                    0              0              0
  Total Current Liabilities               27,599         13,023          7,712

  Long Term Debt                           1,067         13,271         11,867
  Other Liabilities                            0          3,409          1,826
  Deferred LT Liability Charges                0              0              0
  Minority Interest                            0              0              0
  Negative Goodwill                            0              0              0
  Total Liabilities                       28,666         29,703         21,405

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Stocks Options Warrants           26,128         26,128              0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock                   0              0              0
  Preferred Stock                              9             10             10
  Common Stock                             2,554          2,538          1,991
  Retained Earnings                     -358,379       -339,229       -309,116
  Treasury Stock                             -61            -61            -24
  Capital Surplus                        376,008        367,028        307,498
  Other Stockholder Equity                 2,921          1,313              0
  Total Stockholder Equity                23,052         31,599            359
  Net Tangible Assets                      7,232         13,469         -7,074


Quarterly Balance Sheets:                               All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                Sep30,2011   Jun30,2011   Mar31,2011   Dec31,2010
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents          47,235       38,849       47,879       18,016
  Short Term Investments           40,182       54,998       59,983            0
  Net Receivables                  12,688       15,528       14,001       13,317
  Inventory                        10,516       16,326       18,137       19,957
  Other Current Assets              7,008        1,927        2,785        2,782
  Total Current Assets            117,629      127,628      142,785       54,072

  Long-Term Investments             5,862        4,240        4,691        5,114
  Property, Plant & Equipt          3,271        3,093        2,771        2,729
  Goodwill                          6,234        6,853        6,672        5,856
  Intangible Assets                14,252       18,545       19,355        9,964
  Accumulated Amortization              0            0            0            0
  Other Assets                      3,753           60           33          111
  Deferred LT Asset Charges             0            0            0            0
  Total Assets                    151,001      160,419      176,307       77,846

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                  6,234        6,923       10,131       12,909
  Current Portion LT Debt          12,547       14,604       14,552       14,690
  Other Current Liabilities         1,460            0            0            0
  Total Current Liabilities        20,241       21,527       24,683       27,599

  Long Term Debt                        0            0            0        1,067
  Other Liabilities                 2,154        1,600        1,883            0
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges             0            0            0            0
  Minority Interest                     0            0            0            0
  Negative Goodwill                     0            0            0            0
  Total Liabilities                22,395       23,127       26,566       28,666

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, WarrantS          26,128       26,128       26,128       26,128
  Redeemable Perferred Stock            0            0            0            0
  Preferred Stock                       0            0            7            9
  Common Stock                      2,881        2,879        2,850        2,554
  Retained Earnings              -378,125     -369,889     -364,128     -358,379
  Treasury Stock                   -7,893       -7,893          -61          -61
  Capital Surplus                 485,181      482,910      482,521      376,008
  Other Stockholder Equity            434        3,157        2,424        2,921
  Total Stockholder Equity        102,478      111,164      123,613       23,052
  Net Tangible Assets              81,992       85,766       97,586        7,232


Annual Cash Flow:                                    All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                      Dec31,2010     Dec31,2009     Dec31,2008

  Net Income                            -18,926         -5,746        -39,834
Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                            3,936          2,480          2,013
  Adjustments to Net Income               7,033          8,422          8,735
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls           -3,396         -1,271            590
  Changes in Liabilities                 -1,466         -2,081          1,281
  Changes in Inventories                 -7,589           -928         -2,104
  Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's              0            155             25
  Total Cash Flow fr Operations         -19,094        -23,336        -29,294

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                     -807           -172           -378
  Investments                              -650         -4,800              0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing               0        -17,632             48
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing          -2,780        -22,604           -330

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                              0              0              0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock                  74         81,708         15,383
  Net Borrowings                         -2,842            212         -2,825
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing               0              0            371
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing          -2,768         81,920         12,929

  Effect of Exchange Rate Change              0              0              0
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s         -24,642         35,980        -16,695


Quarterly Cash Flow:                                   All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                  Sep30,2011  Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010

  Net Income                         -8,236      -5,746      -5,704        -673

Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                          776       1,085         999       1,976
  Adjustments to Net Income           2,436       2,616       2,267       2,525
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls         -449      -1,476        -598        -549
  Changes in Liabilities              2,351      -2,410      -2,741         893
  Changes in Inventories                863       1,826       1,391      -4,034
  Changes in Other Oper'g Acts            0         224        -299       1,559
  Total Cash Flow f Operations       -3,346      -3,881      -4,685      -1,838

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                 -707        -434        -108        -206
  Investments                        12,807       4,984     -59,983        -650
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing           0           0     -10,538          29
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing      12,100       4,550     -70,629        -827

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                          0           0           0           0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock             466      -9,451     104,963          48
  Net Borrowings                       -612        -293         200       5,556
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing           0           0           0           0
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing        -146      -9,744     105,163       5,604

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg             0           0           0          45
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.        8,386      -9,030      29,863       2,839


OPK    Opko Health, Inc.                  [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
                                          or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28?    0.0000       P/E Ratio > 5?             0.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate: -2.0000       Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    0.0000

Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   0.0676       Inventory/Sales < 5%?      0.0924
Sales < $1 billion?        3.0000       Operating Margin < 7.5%?  -0.1600

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.0410       Long-Term Debt Service:    3.0000
LTD Being Reduced?         1.2000       Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         2.9050       Working Capital >= 1.5?    0.3441
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      3.0000       Debt / Assets < 1?         3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           2.9605       Inventory Turnover > 1?    1.5909
Shares Out Decreasing?     1.2000       Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion?  1.0274
                                        Profit Margin > 7.5%?     -3.0000
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000       EPS Annual Growth > 10%?  -3.0000
Enterprise Value/Revenue:  3.0000       EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%?     0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:  -3.0000       EPS Growth Consistent?     1.2000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0000       Collection < 45 days?      0.3414
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%?   2.9850       Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1?    0.6014
EPS Annual Growth > 10%?  -3.0000       Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%?   1.0000

Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          2.5051       % Held by Insiders  < 5%?  0.0920
Beta > 1.25?               0.9280       % Held by Institut. < 50?  3.0000
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.5294       % Held by Institut. > 30?  0.2667
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  0.1153       Short Ratio > 5?           1.4600
Price/Book Value < 3?     -3.0000       Short % of Float > 20?     0.4900
Return on Assets > 17%?   -0.6741       Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F: -2.4510       Positive Free Cash Flow?   0.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  0.0000       Price to C.F./sh. Ratio:  -3.0000
                                        Cash Flow / Assets >.10?  -0.3715

OPK     Opko Health, Inc.               Overall Zenith Index:      0.5599


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The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for OPKO Health Inc.:
Symbol? OPK
Total Months Available:  54
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
   5.03    2.99      4.49    3.15      5.85    3.49

RANGE   =   5.85  TO    2.99            Close =   5.10
CHANNEL =   4.49  TO    3.49           Degree =   3
Volatility =  19.61%                    Index =   5
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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News - 1
Comparison + 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index - 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings < 1%+ 1
Cash Flow - 1
Ratios - 1
Market Grader - 1
Intrinsic Value DCF - 1
Intrinsic Value DDM - 1
Stock Scout + 1
Projected Earnings - 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites + 1
Insider Activity + 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest - 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
Moving Average - 1
Right Time Study + 1
Stock Fetcher - 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart - 1
Time Series Chart + 1
Neural Network + 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total - 1
Place 5,780 shares of Opko Health, Inc. (OPK) on the Active List.