01-03-2010: NSTAR Company (NST): Rates Coming Down

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Recommendation

NSTAR Company

Electric rates vary considerably all over the country. Generally, higher rates are on the Atlantic and Pacific Coasts, save for the Pacific Northwest, which has some of the lowest rates of all. Thus they could go as low as 8 cents per kilowatt/hour in the State of Washington, while in Massachusetts the average rate is closer to double that at 16 cents. NStar Electric Company is an integrated gas and electric utility that serves the Boston area and communities around that area in Massachusetts. Its rates are somewhat lower than nearby utilities, such as Northern Grid, which as a company might be rated higher along with its profits. Abundance of hydroelectric power is a key factor deciding whether rates will be low or high. The less-densely populated mid-section of the country also allows for lower rates.

In Massachusetts, an electric utility faces an abundance of special problems. Nor'Easter storms can cause frequent blackouts, environmental restrictions in a heavily-populated area are more stringent, and there are decided labor problems. Utility electricians often hold the upper hand in labor union strikes and can bully their way to higher wages holding a company hostage to the fact that prolonged outages will be unacceptable. Thus if NStar attempted to cut workers benefits in say, healthcare, they would have to be quickly restored. And environmental concerns stem all the way from unsightly transmission line locations to inability to use herbicides to control growth that might endanger power lines in certain areas.

Despite all this, we would point out NStar pays a healthy dividend of over 4%, which is considerably more than one could get from most online bank CD's. At the same time there is growth seen in share performance.

Our two favorite research organizations each like the stock and rate it as a "buy," as does Standard & Poor's, but other analysts and researchers do not favor it, possibly because utilities are fairly stable and not apt to go to the moon any time soon. This stock would most likely be rated as a "buy and hold" stock, but still it seems eminently tradeable to us with comparitively low risk.

Massachusetts is one area of the country where utility rates got so high that utility rates are actually being lowered, after previously taking some quantum jumps of as much as 9% at a whack. Massachusetts also has some unusual governmental regulation entities, some of which appear to stem from governmental setup from the colonial revolution days. Sweetheart commissions can be critical to the success or lack thereof for a utility. Thus, a news headline like "electrical conduit muddies river water," leads us to wonder a bit.



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NSTAR                            (NST  )    Sector: Utilities
800 Boylston Street              Industry: Electric Utilities
Boston, MA 02199                 Exchange: NYSE

NSTAR, through its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution,
transmission, and sale of energy in Massachusetts. The company
supplies electricity at retail in the City of Boston and 80
surrounding cities and towns, such as Cambridge, New Bedford,
Plymouth, and the geographic area comprising Cape Cod and Martha-Ęs
Vineyard. It distributes natural gas in central and eastern
Massachusetts, including the Hyde Park area of Boston, Cambridge,
Dedham, Framingham, New Bedford, Plymouth, Somerville, and
Worcester. The company also engages in district energy operations,
telecommunications, and a liquefied natural gas service. The
district energy operations include sale of chilled water, steam, and
electricity to hospitals, and teaching and research facilities
located in Boston-Ęs Longwood Medical Area. The telecommunications
services comprise installation, ownership, operation, and
maintenance of a wholesale transport network for other
telecommunications service providers in the metropolitan Boston area
to deliver voice, video, data, and Internet services to customers.
As of December 31, 2008, it served approximately 1.4 million
customers, including approximately 1.1 million electric distribution
customers in 81 communities and approximately 300,000 natural gas
distribution customers in 51 communities. The company was founded in
1886 and is based in Boston, Massachusetts.

Last Trade:  36.80                     52-Week Range:  37.75 -  27.49
Trade Date:  01-01                     Avg. Volume:    583,697 Shares
Index Membership: S&P 400 MidCap                   Employees:   3,250

Corporate Governance:
NSTAR's Corporate Governance Quotient (CGQ-«) as of 1-Dec-09 is
better than 73.2% of S&P 400 companies and 56.8% of Utilities
companies.

     EPS:   2.32     Dividend Amount: $  1.60       Yield:         4.30%
                    Ex-Dividend Date: 06-Jan-10   Mkt Cap: $  3,930,000K
                        Payout Ratio: 64.00%

     Last Split Factor (new for old): 2:1      Split Date: 06-Jun-05

Key Statistics:

Enterprise Value: $  6,750,000K           Revenue (ttm)  : $  3,240,000K
                                             Gross Profit: $  1,010,000K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $    719,620K

Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm):  2.08           Revenue per Share: $   30.34
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm):   9.38       Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y):-13.50%


P/E Ratio (fwd projected): 14.55      P/E Ratio (current):  15.90

P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected):  2.72  Operating Margin:   16.36%
               Price/Sales Ratio:  1.24     Profit Margin:    7.64%
                Price/Book Value:  2.14        Book Value: $ 17.51/sh.

Return on Assets:   4.21%        Net Income Avl to Common: $   247,730K
Return on Equity:  13.54%          Diluted Earnings/Share:     $  2.32
                              Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):        2.10%

Balance Sheet Items :                   Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr)                      (trailing 12 mo.)

       Total Cash: $     23,430K        Operating Cash Flow:$    686,000K
       Total Debt: $  2,840,000K        Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$    382,400K
Total Debt/Equity:         0.00
 Total Cash/Share:      $  0.22
    Current Ratio:         0.51

Share Statistics:                       Stock Price History:

    Shares Outstanding:  106,810K       Stk 52-Week Change:   1.21%
                 Float:  106,350K       S&P 500 52-Wk Chng:  19.67%
  Sh. Short % of Float:     0.00%        50-Day Moving Avg:  34.45
           Short Ratio:     6.50        200-Day Moving Avg:  32.36
% Held by Institutions:    47.10%                     Beta:   0.22
    % Held by Insiders:     1.09%

Analysts' Estimates:               Cur. Qtr   Next Qtr  Cur. Year  Next Year
___________________________          Dec-09     Mar-10     Dec-09     Dec-10

  Average Earnings Estimate           0.45       0.61       2.36       2.53
  Average Revenue  Estimate           807M       937M     3,310M     3,340M

Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):

Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr): 0.000          EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY): 0.029
  PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected): 0.036                 P/E Ratio (ttm): 0.082
      Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY): 0.000


Annual Income Statements:                          All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          31-Dec-08    31-Dec-07    31-Dec-06

  Total Revenue                          3,345,387    3,261,784    3,577,702
  Cost of Revenue                        2,335,186    1,766,449    2,121,291
  Gross Profit                           1,010,201    1,495,335    1,456,411

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                         0            0            0
  Selling, General & Administrative        100,442      611,432      600,332
  Non-Recurring Expenses                         0            0            0
  Other Operating Expenses                 379,761      369,642      362,222
  Total Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Operating Income or Loss                 529,998      514,261      493,857

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net           14,882        5,545       12,076
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes         399,036      519,341      505,933
  Interest Expense                         161,489      167,402      177,857
  Income Before Taxes                      237,547      351,939      328,076
  Income Tax Expense                       143,884      130,424      119,342
  Minority Interest                         -1,960       -1,960       -1,960
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s          237,547      221,515      206,774

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                        0            0            0
  Extraordinary Items                            0            0            0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                   0            0            0
  Other Items                                    0            0            0
  Net Income                               237,547      221,515      206,774

  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts            0            0            0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shares        237,547      221,515      206,774


Quarterly Income Statements:                           All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                    30-Sep-09   30-Jun-09   31-Mar-09   31-Dec-08

  Total Revenue                      771,475     707,525     947,789     813,883
  Cost of Revenue                    517,344     431,795     684,152     641,710
  Gross Profit                       254,131     275,730     263,637     172,173

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                   0           0           0           0
  Selling, General & Adminis.        111,105      63,797      29,891      26,634
  Non-Recurring Expenses                   0           0           0     -54,762
  Other Operating Expenses            91,623      93,378     101,284      95,561
  Total Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Operating Income or Loss            51,403     118,555     132,462     104,740

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net    -12,799      11,878       4,756       2,648
  Earnings Before Int. & Taxes       108,031      96,914     101,310      81,460
  Interest Expense                    19,903      39,490      39,784      39,338
  Income Before Taxes                 88,128      57,424      61,526      42,122
  Income Tax Expense                 -69,427      33,519      35,908      25,438
  Minority Interest                        0           0           0        -490
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s     88,128      57,424      61,526      42,122

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                  0           0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                      0           0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes             0           0           0           0
  Other Items                              0           0           0           0
  Net Income                          88,128      57,424      61,526      42,122

  Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s         -490        -490        -490           0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shs      87,638      56,934      61,036      42,122


Annual Balance Sheets:                                All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                        31-Dec-08      31-Dec-07      31-Dec-06
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                 31,565         38,059         23,142
  Short Term Investments                       0              0              0
  Net Receivables                        523,477        388,510        376,196
  Inventory                               93,684        120,251        124,874
  Other Current Assets                   472,635        541,751        435,542
  Total Current Assets                 1,121,361      1,088,571        959,754

  Long-Term Investments                   79,176         90,731        211,715
  Property, Plant & Equipt             4,538,166      4,286,225      4,086,127
  Goodwill                                     0        638,379        658,539
  Intangible Assets                            0              0        768,406
  Accumulated Amortization                     0              0              0
  Other Assets                         2,466,018      1,655,639      1,084,854
  Deferred Long Term Asset Charges        64,768              0              0
  Total Assets                         8,269,489      7,759,545      7,769,395

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                     1,052,479        879,700        844,090
  Short/Current Long Term Debt            98,024         98,531        176,082
  Other Current Liabilities              244,479        212,081        219,761
  Total Current Liabilities            1,394,982      1,190,312      1,239,933

  Long Term Debt                       2,012,467      2,501,400      2,360,775
  Other Liabilities                    1,710,372      1,184,845      1,333,390
  Deferred LT Liability Charges        1,320,513      1,136,173      1,209,734
  Minority Interest                            0              0              0
  Negative Goodwill                            0              0              0
  Total Liabilities                    6,481,334      6,012,730      6,143,832

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Stocks Options Warrants           43,000              0              0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock                   0         43,000              0
  Preferred Stock                              0              0         43,000
  Common Stock                           106,808        106,808        106,808
  Retained Earnings                      876,271        790,926        664,323
  Treasury Stock                               0              0              0
  Capital Surplus                        818,601        818,674        823,450
  Other Stockholder Equity               -13,525        -12,593        -12,018
  Total Stockholder Equity             1,788,155      1,703,815      1,625,563
  Net Tangible Assets                  1,788,155      1,065,436        198,618


Quarterly Balance Sheets:                               All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                 30-Sep-09    30-Jun-09    31-Mar-09    31-Dec-08
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents         31,743       37,954       45,342       31,565
  Short Term Investments                0            0            0            0
  Net Receivables                 463,177      485,500      561,743      523,477
  Inventory                        73,834       65,195       57,361       93,684
  Other Current Assets            327,107      341,968      388,631      472,635
  Total Current Assets            895,861      930,617    1,053,077    1,121,361

  Long-Term Investments            78,649       70,306       78,847       79,176
  Property, Plant & Equipt     4,648,842    4,621,623    4,567,563    4,538,166
  Goodwill                              0            0            0            0
  Intangible Assets                     0            0            0            0
  Accumulated Amortization              0            0            0            0
  Other Assets                  2,390,658    2,443,042    2,408,708    2,466,018
  Deferred LT Asset Charges             0      214,613      223,390      244,479
  Total Assets                  8,014,010    8,065,588    8,174,417    8,269,489

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                892,264      836,269      886,152    1,052,479
  Current Portion LT Debt         862,041      729,715      639,964       98,024
  Other Current Liabilities             0            0            0            0
  Total Current Liabilities     1,754,305    1,780,597    1,749,506    1,394,982

  Long Term Debt                1,945,325    1,741,290    1,868,975    2,012,467
  Other Liabilities             1,235,529    1,513,109    1,548,326    1,710,372
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges     1,165,082    1,166,306    1,154,104    1,320,513
  Minority Interest                43,000       43,000       43,000            0
  Negative Goodwill                     0            0            0            0
  Total Liabilities             6,143,241    6,244,302    6,363,911    6,481,334

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, WarrantS               0            0            0       43,000
  Redeemable Perferred Stock            0            0            0            0
  Preferred Stock                       0            0            0            0
  Common Stock                    106,808      106,808      106,808      106,808
  Retained Earnings               948,900      914,135      897,254      876,271
  Treasury Stock                        0            0            0            0
  Capital Surplus                       0      813,398      819,746      818,601
  Other Stockholder Equity        815,061      -13,055      -13,302      -13,525
  Total Stockholder Equity      1,870,769    1,821,286    1,810,506    1,788,155
  Net Tangible Assets           1,870,769    1,821,286    1,810,506    1,788,155


Annual Cash Flow:                                    All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                       31-Dec-08      31-Dec-07      31-Dec-06

  Net Income                            237,547         57,424        206,774
Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                          386,566        371,510        363,480
  Adjustments to Net Income              22,746        -55,719       -143,978
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls           -5,847        -17,850         -5,819
  Changes in Liabilities                -31,536         13,567         -6,777
  Changes in Inventories                 26,567          4,622         -3,950
  Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's        -92,955        -46,265        123,731
  Total Cash Flow fr Operations         543,088        491,380        533,461

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                 -422,224       -360,130       -426,146
  Investments                                 0         -1,137          1,571
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing           4,604          3,049         13,057
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing        -417,620       -358,218       -411,518

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                       -149,532       -138,851       -129,239
  Sale or Purchase of Stock                   0        -12,299        -16,105
  Net Borrowings                         19,885         26,518         27,232
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing          -7,958          9,459              0
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing        -137,605       -115,173       -121,423

  Effect of Exchange Rate Change              0              0              0
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s          12,137        -12,137         17,989


Quarterly Cash Flow:                                   All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                   30-Sep-09   30-Jun-09   31-Mar-09   31-Dec-08

  Net Income                         88,128      57,424      61,526      42,122

Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                       93,128      94,881     102,836      97,187
  Adjustments to Net Income          20,388      17,320        -417      26,682
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls       22,323      76,243           0           0
  Changes in Liabilities             17,828    -124,755     -24,390     -74,829
  Changes in Inventories             -8,639      -7,834      36,323      54,749
  Changes in Other Oper'g Acts       -5,264      12,896     105,137     -31,273
  Total Cash Flow f Operations      227,892     126,175     242,749      90,652

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures              -76,438     -98,912    -108,185    -110,099
  Investments                             0           0           0           0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing         392         324         225       4,923
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing     -76,046     -98,588    -107,960    -105,176

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                    -41,472     -40,543     -40,543     -37,383
  Sale or Purchase of Stock            -537      -6,650      -1,314       5,822
  Net Borrowings                   -187,721      86,199     -80,623      41,447
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing      72,768     -72,528         192      -5,395
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing           0           0           0           0

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg             0           0           0           0
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.       -5,116      -5,935      12,501     -10,033


NST    NSTAR                              [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
                                          or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28?    1.7610       P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  3.0000       Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    1.9244

Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   1.8548       Inventory/Sales < 5%?      1.7855
Sales < $1 billion?        0.2989       Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.4584

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        1.0000       Long-Term Debt Service:    0.8885
LTD Being Reduced?         1.8000       Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.2555       Working Capital >= 1.5?    3.0000
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.7679       Debt / Assets < 1?         3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           0.2821       Inventory Turnover > 1?    0.3642
Shares Out Decreasing?     1.2000       Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion?  0.3817
                                        Profit Margin > 7.5%?      1.0186
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     1.3953       EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0000
Enterprise Value/Revenue:  1.3867       EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%?     0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   1.3403       EPS Growth Consistent?     2.4000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.2100       Collection < 45 days?      0.7879
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%?  -2.0250       Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1?    1.0520
EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0000       Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%?   1.3091

Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          1.2581       % Held by Insiders  < 5%?  3.0000
Beta > 1.25?               0.1760       % Held by Institut. < 50?  1.0616
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.1704       % Held by Institut. > 30?  1.5700
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  1.3114       Short Ratio > 5?           1.3000
Price/Book Value < 3?      1.8600       Short % of Float > 20?     0.0000
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.2476       Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  1.7939       Positive Free Cash Flow?   1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  1.0000       Price to C.F./sh. Ratio:   0.7341
                                        Cash Flow / Assets >.10?   0.4772

NST     NSTAR                           Overall Zenith Index:      1.2216


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The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for NStar Co.:
Symbol? NST
Total Months Available: 120
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  36.80   27.49     34.68   28.54     37.75   30.76

RANGE   =  37.75  TO   27.49            Close =  37.56
CHANNEL =  34.68  TO   30.76           Degree =   4
Volatility =  10.44%                    Index =   4
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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison + 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue + 1
Zenith Index + 1
GAAP vs. non-GAAP Earnings < 1%+ 1
Cash Flow + 1
Ratios + 1
Market Grader + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Intrinsic Value DDM - 1
Stock Scout + 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts - 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's + 1
Moving Average + 1
Right Time Study + 1
Stock Fetcher - 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network 0
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems - 1
Total + 11cd \wp GG
Place 815 shares of NSTAR Company (NST) on the Active List.