09-29-2009: Knight Capital Group (NITE): Zenith Considers It a Major Competitor

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Recommendation

Knight Capital Group

In reviewing Knight Capital (NITE), we plead both to ignorance and prejudice. It would not be unfair to say we do not like this organization and consider it one of our competitors, albeit a very large one compared to a very small one. NITE is a "market maker." We have claimed on this site that there are good stocks representing bad companies, and bad companies having good stocks; and insofar as the stock is concerned, it depends upon the market maker and not the underlying company. "Market makers" are supposed to "provide a market" and stabilize the markets (in our opinion), not destabilize them with manipulation due to great size and strength. In the case of NITE, it is clear that volatile unstable markets benefit this company greatly. All the major news sources are agreed on that. Other than that, there is little news on this company, which has a "low profile."

Our first impression of NITE comes from its corporate website, which is full of blurb and scenes of a huge trading room loaded with monitors and traders sitting on their cans in front of those monitors waiting to pounce on every opportunity. How could we expect to compete against something like that? And how does it benefit the American economy really? Do they manufacture anything? Do they provide a real service? Does their stock pay dividends? Or do they just sit and "trade" all day long? The website seems very confused and disjointed to us on describing exactly what service the company performs. Maybe our readers can make more of it. The central message is that, "We help corporations squeeze more money out of the public."

How this company regards shareholders is evident from CEO compensation and stock option perquisites, as well as who sits on the Board of Directors. We feel as in most huge trading firms, corpoate governance is practically nil.

We are like Michael Moore in his latest film, standing out in front of some giant Wall Street skyscraper, banging on the glass front door and shouting, "Give us our money back!"

We were attracted to review this stock by researchers (but not "analysts") who seem to pretty much universally like and favor the stock. Are these guys also prejudice because many of them served in similar companies? Where are the financials of this company really? They did not do well passing the Zenith test, but well enough to get a positive overall rating in our Decision Matrix. It's not a "bad stock," but it certainly isn't going to the moon as many researchers are implying it will. We note "extraordinary items" populate the earnings statements, giving it a poor GAAP rating from us.

We think perhaps Morningstar did the best job of reviewing this stock and summarize some of the problems with it as follows: The brokerage industry is competitive, and decreasing margins may offset increases in volume. This company did much better when broker commissions were fixed and there were fewer or no discount brokers. Results got a recent boost from the market meltdown and ensuing volatility, deleveraging of funds, which can't be relied upon to continue in the future. Knight has already reached most of its potential customers in the U.S. and must depend upon global expansion. Breaking into foreign markets in this area is not easy because of established competitors there. And last, but not least, their proprietary trading algorithms may not be profitable during certain markets. You mean Knight uses "programmed trading?" Of course it does! Even Zenith uses programmed trading, although nothing like Knight's operation in that big room that looks like Houston Mission Control.

We noted with some dismay that favorite and most trusted institution/fund Dimensional Fund Advisors had a sizeable position in this stock, until we also noted that it was dumping its shares like mad in recent months, along with many other institutions. So also are insiders, with "Timing Grade A."

So we knock NITE, but give it a "+ 4" in the end, to indicate that we think it might make a nice trading vehicle in either direction. We are pretty sure NITE would agree with us on the latter.



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Knight Capital Group Inc.        (NITE )    Sector: Financial
545 Washington Boulevard         Industry: Investment Brokerage - Region
Jersey City, NJ 07310            Exchange: Nasdaq

Knight Capital Group, Inc., a financial services company, provides
electronic and voice access to the capital markets across multiple
asset classes for buy-side, sell-side, and corporate clients; and
asset management for institutions and private clients in the United
States. It operates in two segments, Global Markets and Asset
Management. The Global Markets segment provides market access and
trade execution services across various asset classes for
broker-dealers and institutions. Its institutional products comprise
equity, fixed income, futures, options, and foreign currency trade
execution solutions; block trading; program trading; international
equities; special situations/risk arbitrage; soft dollar and
commission recapture programs; corporate access services; direct
market access; and crossing networks. This segment-Ęs clients include
broker-dealers and on-line brokers, mutual funds, pension plans,
plan sponsors, hedge funds, trusts, and endowments. The Asset
Management segment operates as an investment manager. It primarily
serves banks, insurance companies, funds-of-hedge funds, corporate
and public pension plan sponsors, trusts, endowments, and private
clients. The company was formerly known as Knight Trading Group,
Inc. and changed its name to Knight Capital Group, Inc. in May 2005.
Knight Capital Group was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in
Jersey City, New Jersey.

Last Trade:  21.98                     52-Week Range:  22.78 -  11.03
Trade Date:  09-28                     Avg. Volume:  1,469,620 Shares
Index Membership: N/A                              Employees:   1,046

Corporate Governance:
Knight Capital Group Inc.'s Corporate Governance Quotient (CGQ-«) as
of 1-Sep-09 is better than 92.7% of Russell 3000 companies and 82.3%
of Diversified Financials companies.

     EPS:   1.76     Dividend Amount: $  0.00       Yield:         0.00%
                    Ex-Dividend Date: N/A         Mkt Cap: $  2,060,000K
                        Payout Ratio:  0.00%

     Last Split Factor (new for old): 2:1      Split Date: 17-May-99

Key Statistics:

Enterprise Value: $  1,030,000K           Revenue (ttm)  : $  1,200,000K
                                             Gross Profit: $    827,720K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $          0K

Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm):  0.85           Revenue per Share: $   13.83
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm):   0.00       Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y): 65.60%


P/E Ratio (fwd projected): 12.42      P/E Ratio (current):  12.50

P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected):  0.98  Operating Margin:   25.44%
               Price/Sales Ratio:  1.68     Profit Margin:   13.37%
                Price/Book Value:  1.71        Book Value: $ 12.65/sh.

Return on Assets:   8.50%        Net Income Avl to Common: $   186,400K
Return on Equity:  18.03%          Diluted Earnings/Share:     $  1.76
                              Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):       20.70%

Balance Sheet Items :                   Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr)                      (trailing 12 mo.)

       Total Cash: $  1,170,000K        Operating Cash Flow:$    172,860K
       Total Debt: $    140,000K        Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$          0K
Total Debt/Equity:         0.00
 Total Cash/Share:      $ 12.52
    Current Ratio:         1.62

Share Statistics:                       Stock Price History:

    Shares Outstanding:   93,610K       Stk 52-Week Change:  49.12%
                 Float:   87,120K       S&P 500 52-Wk Chng:  -3.93%
  Sh. Short % of Float:     6.30%        50-Day Moving Avg:  20.28
           Short Ratio:     4.60        200-Day Moving Avg:  17.61
% Held by Institutions:    84.40%                     Beta:   0.13
    % Held by Insiders:     4.87%

Analysts' Estimates:               Cur. Qtr   Next Qtr  Cur. Year  Next Year
___________________________          Sep-09     Dec-09     Dec-09     Dec-10

  Average Earnings Estimate           0.39       0.41       1.57       1.77
  Average Revenue  Estimate           279M       280M     1,090M     1,100M

Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):

Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr): 0.718          EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY): 0.062
  PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected): 0.306                 P/E Ratio (ttm): 0.122
      Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY): 0.111


Annual Income Statements:                          All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          31-Dec-08    31-Dec-07    31-Dec-06

  Total Revenue                          1,039,505      905,324      951,210
  Cost of Revenue                          211,790      236,192      214,557
  Gross Profit                             827,715      669,132      736,652

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                    18,221            0            0
  Selling, General & Administrative        470,833      448,290      451,021
  Non-Recurring Expenses                     1,236       -2,470        8,480
  Other Operating Expenses                  34,101       22,075       20,641
  Total Operating Expenses                 524,391            0            0
  Operating Income or Loss                 303,324      201,237      256,511

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net           15,947            0            0
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes         319,271      201,237      256,511
  Interest Expense                           5,014            0            0
  Income Before Taxes                      314,257      201,237      256,511
  Income Tax Expense                       130,193       77,560       98,165
  Minority Interest                         -6,153            0            0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s          177,911      123,677      158,346

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                        0       -1,437            0
  Extraordinary Items                            0            0            0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                   0            0            0
  Other Items                                    0            0            0
  Net Income                               177,911      122,240      158,346

  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts            0            0            0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shares        177,911      122,240      158,346


Quarterly Income Statements:                           All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                    30-Jun-09   31-Mar-09   31-Dec-08   30-Sep-08

  Total Revenue                      316,018     245,354     327,071     264,262
  Cost of Revenue                     28,503      49,020      54,869    -126,426
  Gross Profit                       287,515     196,334     272,202     390,688

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development              -4,346       4,346       5,456      12,765
  Selling, General & Adminis.        210,278     131,092     122,759     303,055
  Non-Recurring Expenses             -10,695         699         592       2,516
  Other Operating Expenses             8,773       8,187      14,754       7,422
  Total Operating Expenses           204,010     144,324     143,561     325,758
  Operating Income or Loss            83,505      52,010     128,641      64,930

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net          0           0      15,947           0
  Earnings Before Int. & Taxes        83,505      52,010     144,588      64,930
  Interest Expense                     2,612         981       1,589       1,441
  Income Before Taxes                 80,893      51,029     142,999      63,489
  Income Tax Expense                  32,934      21,148      61,395      25,511
  Minority Interest                        0           0      -1,902      -1,683
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s     47,959      29,881      79,702      36,295

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations            -12,461     -20,514           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                      0           0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes             0           0           0           0
  Other Items                              0           0           0           0
  Net Income                          35,498       9,367      79,702      36,295

  Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s            0           0           0           0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shs      35,498       9,367      79,702      36,295


Annual Balance Sheets:                                All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                        31-Dec-08      31-Dec-07      31-Dec-06
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                440,621        222,435        214,760
  Short Term Investments                       0              0              0
  Net Receivables                        353,216        495,132        485,101
  Inventory                                    0              0              0
  Other Current Assets                         0              0              0
  Total Current Assets                         0              0              0

  Long-Term Investments                  606,960        570,001        948,785
  Property, Plant & Equipt                83,831         62,073         66,450
  Goodwill                               232,197        132,832        133,043
  Intangible Assets                       90,477         57,845         63,701
  Accumulated Amortization                     0              0              0
  Other Assets                           134,583        129,991        116,374
  Deferred Long Term Asset Charges        72,690         85,504              0
  Total Assets                         2,014,575      1,755,813      2,028,214

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                       455,036        465,155        372,656
  Short/Current Long Term Debt           385,003        335,280        693,071
  Other Current Liabilities                    0              0              0
  Total Current Liabilities                    0              0              0

  Long Term Debt                         140,000         70,000              0
  Other Liabilities                            0              0              0
  Deferred LT Liability Charges                0              0              0
  Minority Interest                        7,178              0              0
  Negative Goodwill                            0              0              0
  Total Liabilities                      987,217        870,435      1,065,727

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Stocks Options Warrants                0              0              0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock                   0              0              0
  Preferred Stock                              0              0              0
  Common Stock                             1,544          1,509          1,450
  Retained Earnings                    1,112,010        934,099        811,859
  Treasury Stock                        -734,912       -637,255       -370,612
  Capital Surplus                        648,716        587,025        519,790
  Other Stockholder Equity                     0              0              0
  Total Stockholder Equity             1,027,358        885,378        962,487
  Net Tangible Assets                    704,684        694,701        765,743


Quarterly Balance Sheets:                               All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                 30-Jun-09    31-Mar-09    31-Dec-08    30-Sep-08
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents        363,908      336,862      440,621      296,119
  Short Term Investments                0            0            0            0
  Net Receivables                 541,442      437,999      353,216      323,285
  Inventory                             0            0            0            0
  Other Current Assets                  0            0            0            0
  Total Current Assets                  0            0            0            0

  Long-Term Investments           926,144      934,332      606,960      696,824
  Property, Plant & Equipt        89,624       81,500       83,831       78,172
  Goodwill                        232,197      232,197      232,197      231,791
  Intangible Assets                82,645       87,641       90,477       93,327
  Accumulated Amortization              0            0            0            0
  Other Assets                    157,615      167,284      134,583      145,648
  Deferred LT Asset Charges             0            0            0            0
  Total Assets                  2,437,860    2,320,527    2,014,575    1,950,286

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                530,655      457,410      455,036      484,766
  Current Portion LT Debt         593,150      598,468      385,003      374,931
  Other Current Liabilities             0            0            0            0
  Total Current Liabilities             0            0            0            0

  Long Term Debt                  140,000      140,000      140,000      140,000
  Other Liabilities                70,821       74,290            0            0
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges             0            0            0            0
  Minority Interest                     0          759        7,178        5,276
  Negative Goodwill                     0            0            0            0
  Total Liabilities             1,334,626    1,270,927      987,217    1,004,973

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, WarrantS               0            0            0            0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock            0            0            0            0
  Preferred Stock                       0            0            0            0
  Common Stock                      1,579        1,577        1,544        1,536
  Retained Earnings             1,156,875    1,121,377    1,112,010    1,032,307
  Treasury Stock                 -740,450     -743,449     -734,912     -727,520
  Capital Surplus                 684,588      670,095      648,716      638,990
  Other Stockholder Equity            642            0            0            0
  Total Stockholder Equity      1,103,234    1,049,600    1,027,358      945,313
  Net Tangible Assets             788,392      729,762      704,684      620,195


Annual Cash Flow:                                    All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                       31-Dec-08      31-Dec-07      31-Dec-06

  Net Income                            177,911          9,367        158,346
Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                           27,494         22,075         20,641
  Adjustments to Net Income              33,294        -15,668        -57,302
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls           62,732         59,075       -208,136
  Changes in Liabilities                -35,040       -248,155        452,422
  Changes in Inventories                      0              0              0
  Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's              0        211,685              0
  Total Cash Flow fr Operations         255,806        151,252         15,655

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                  -38,308        -15,098        -12,976
  Investments                            79,943         30,134         -5,689
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing               0         34,024         16,946
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing          13,132         49,060              0

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                              0              0              0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock            -126,869       -245,568        -49,172
  Net Borrowings                         70,000         70,000              0
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing           6,117         15,172         19,405
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing         -50,752       -160,396        -29,767

  Effect of Exchange Rate Change              0              0              0
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s         218,186         39,916         15,831


Quarterly Cash Flow:                                   All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                   30-Jun-09   31-Mar-09   31-Dec-08   30-Sep-08

  Net Income                         35,498       9,367      79,702      36,295

Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                        8,260       8,187       8,147       7,422
  Adjustments to Net Income          19,668      54,477     -13,693      20,111
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls     -103,443     -85,798     -29,931     -72,906
  Changes in Liabilities            292,597      58,408     -33,496     -24,371
  Changes in Inventories                  0           0           0           0
  Changes in Other Oper'g Acts     -211,250    -120,273     100,655     143,475
  Total Cash Flow f Operations       41,330           0     -75,632     111,384

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures              -13,757      -6,312     -10,572     -15,373
  Investments                       -16,850      11,741         806       3,694
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing      15,643           0      47,627     -47,867
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing     -14,964       5,429      37,861     -59,546

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                          0           0           0           0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock             478      -4,988      -6,933     -87,718
  Net Borrowings                      6,178      -6,178           0           0
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing      -5,976       1,274       2,190         671
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing         680      -9,892      -4,743     -87,047

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg             0           0           0           0
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.       27,046     -80,095     144,502     -36,567


NITE   Knight Capital Group Inc.          [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
                                          or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28?    2.2400       P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  0.9400       Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    2.2544

Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   1.3690       Inventory/Sales < 5%?      1.0000
Sales < $1 billion?        0.9620       Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.2948

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        1.0000       Long-Term Debt Service:    3.0000
LTD Being Reduced?         0.0000       Short-Term Debt Service:   0.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.8080       Working Capital >= 1.5?    1.0000
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      2.7620       Debt / Assets < 1?         3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           1.0000       Inventory Turnover > 1?    1.0000
Shares Out Decreasing?     0.6000       Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion?  0.7282
                                        Profit Margin > 7.5%?      1.7826
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000       EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0000
Enterprise Value/Revenue:  0.5667       EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%?     0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   0.0000       EPS Growth Consistent?     1.8000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    2.0700       Collection < 45 days?      0.3628
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%?   3.0000       Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1?    0.8462
EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0000       Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%?   2.2030

Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          2.7802       % Held by Insiders  < 5%?  1.0267
Beta > 1.25?               0.1040       % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.5924
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.3644       % Held by Institut. > 30?  2.8133
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500: -0.2620       Short Ratio > 5?           0.9200
Price/Book Value < 3?      2.2900       Short % of Float > 20?     0.3150
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.5000       Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  1.0000       Positive Free Cash Flow?   0.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  1.0000       Price to C.F./sh. Ratio:   0.0000
                                        Cash Flow / Assets >.10?   0.0000

NITE    Knight Capital Group Inc.       Overall Zenith Index:      1.1066


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Intrinsic Value by Discounted Cash Flow Method:

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Intrinsic Value by Projected Earnings Growth Method:

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We find "Scout" to be a bit biased toward the high end, so anything under a 6 is considered a negative, 6 and above, positive.




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Ownership:

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Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.

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As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for Knight Capital Group:
Symbol? NITE
Total Months Available: 117
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  19.38   11.03     19.98   13.39     22.77   16.09

RANGE   =  22.77  TO   11.03            Close =  21.59
CHANNEL =  19.38  TO   16.09           Degree =   3
Volatility =  15.24%                    Index =   4
Channel Chart


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Intraday Chart

20 Days:

1 Day:

The following table details which MACD signals on the preceding chart are best taken.
Originally, this was set up for a two-day span, but ten days gives a better sample.
Unfortunately, with the 10-day span, the colored lines on the histogram are much
harder to read.  Both spans are shown above.  Red turning into green on the histogram
is a buy and green turning into red is a sell, but with the following conditions.  The
share price must have moved at least 0.2% away from the previous signal price in order
to avoid whipsawing.  More importantly, the +/- magnitude of the MACD (the blue line,
which crosses the red line at signal time) must be greater than the minimum required
magnitude indicated below.  Otherwise, the signal is ignored.  This system absolutely
does not work with NITE suggesting that oscillator indicators are less useful here than
trend-seeking ones.

NITE   Minimum Magnitude MACD for Action = ± 0.0800

Ticker Day   Time     Hist.      MACD  Sig Line  Act    Price   Profit

NITE   17   05:00   -0.0045    0.2735    0.2780   S     22.65     0.00
NITE   18   05:45    0.0177    0.0249    0.0072         22.00    -2.87
NITE   24   07:23    0.0010   -0.0902   -0.0912   B     21.74    -2.87
NITE   25   06:30   -0.0106   -0.0145   -0.0039         21.71     1.28
NITE   25   07:00   -0.0015   -0.0852   -0.0838   S     21.26     1.28
NITE   28   05:38    0.0292    0.0367    0.0075         22.08    -1.24
NITE   28   18:00    0.0042    0.0048    0.0006         21.98    -1.24


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Stock Fetcher

Fetcher Fetcher


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Point & Figure Chart

P & F Chart


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Wall Street Analyzer







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Marketspace Chart

Marketspace Chart



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Time Series Forecast

Time Series 1 Time Series 2


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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

Neural Chart Heading
Neural Trades Neural Prediction



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Ultimate Trading Systems

The corresponding trades for the above chart are shown in tabular form below.



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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison + 1
Industry + 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index - 1
GAAP vs. non-GAAP Earnings < 1%- 1
Cash Flow + 1
Ratios + 1
Market Grader + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Intrinsic Value DDM + 1
Stock Scout + 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports + 1
Analysts - 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity - 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest - 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's + 1
Moving Average - 1
Stock Fetcher - 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network - 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems - 1
Total + 4
Place 1,360 shares of Knight Capital Group (NITE) on the Active List.