09-21-2011: NII Holdings, Inc. (NIHD): Robbing the Gringo Again?

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Recommendation

NII Holdings, Inc.

The history of NII Holdings (NIHD) is a bit complicated and not exactly what one would like to see in a company history. It was formerly associated with Nextel Communications, Inc. The predecessor to Nextel was "FleetCall," founded in 1987 and the company changed its name to "Nextel Communications" in 1993. The company bought frequencies used for fleet dispatch at a substantial discount to cost for frequencies used for wireless telephone service. These "non-cellular frequencies" were made usable for consumer and business wireless voice telephone with the "IDEN" (integrated digital enhanced network) technology, developed by Motorola. This required a "push to talk" feature in their phones. Nextel was the first company to provide unlimited calling plans to a large customer base. It ran into some problems with its unique frequencies with interferrence with local radio stations and had to be "re-banded" by the FCC.

In the early 2000's Nextel began a venture to establish wireless networks overseas, starting with the Philippines. They quickly ran into problems with the Philippine Government protecting its own local business interests which would continue to plague the company in future Latin American ventures with somewhat unstable or protective government environments that did not welcome foreigners. Nextel's overseas unit filed for bankruptcy in 2002. While the bankruptcy was "not expected to have much effect on Nextel itself," Nextel was acquired by Sprint in 2005 and thereafter became defunct. It's spinoff, its overseas unit emerging from bankruptcy protection with debt restructuring, maintained its headquarters in Reston, Virginia where Nextel's former headquarters had been.

The "NII Holdings" where we presume the "NII" probably evolved from somemthing like an unproud association with Nextel International Inc. promptly continued to try to establish itself as a totally overseas operator of cellular systems in Latin American countries.

There are features of the NIHD stock chart which favor swing trading and the use of oscillator indicators. Its trading range has set up a nice channel and it is currently just outside the bottom of that channel range suggesting a buy opportunity.

There were several things we did not like to see regarding the company's financial presentations. There was no letter from the CEO that we could detect, and information on executive compensation was hard to come by. In some ways the company seemed to make presentations more like one that was foreign based rather than one that is domestically-based. The company is definitely not touting its history, which is why that section normally included in our format is omitted.

While this company is well-liked by Jim Cramer, who generally sees investments in Latin America as the prime opportunity over emerging markets in Asia and elsewhere, other researchers with the exception of Standard & Poor's were not so sure. The balance sheet was a problem with some of them. But often companies emerge from bankruptcy leaner and meaner and better regulated in terms of corporate governance. Executive compensation and shareholder rights (poison pill) issues are a concern with this company.

We give the company a negative news rating because of ongoing problems with the Mexican and other Latin governments with local corporations opposing their market entries, producing fines and legal battles so typical of our "buddies" to the South who enjoy robbing the Gringo blind. This is a lesson the company should have learned in the tight-knit Philippines, where apparently it has no desire to go back.

Is hope for success in countries like Mexico, El Salvador, Argentina and Brazil any better? Well, maybe Brazil? Eight million subscribers can't be wrong, can they?



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is consider strong and > 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

NII Holdings Inc.                (NIHD )    Sector: Technology
1875 Explorer Street             Industry: Wireless Communications
Suite 1000                       Exchange: Nasdaq
Reston, VA 20190

NII Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides wireless
communication services under the Nextel brand name to businesses and
individuals in Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Peru, and Chile. Its services
include mobile telephone service; mobile broadband services; Nextel Direct
Connect service, which allows subscribers to talk to each other on a
push-to-talk basis for private one-to-one calls or on group calls; and
International Direct Connect service that allows subscribers to
communicate across national borders. The company also provides data
services, including text messaging services; mobile Internet services;
e-mail services; an Android-based open operating system; location-based
services, such as the use of global positioning system technologies,
digital media services, and Java enabled business applications; and
international roaming services. In addition, it offers two-way radio
services. NII Holdings, Inc. sells its products and services through
direct sales representatives, indirect sales agents, telesales, Nextel
retail stores, shopping center kiosks, and Website. The company was
formerly known as Nextel International, Inc. and changed its name to NII
Holdings, Inc. in December 2001. NII Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1995
and is based in Reston, Virginia.

Last Trade:  35.76                     52-Week Range:  46.32 -  34.51
Trade Date:  09-19                     Avg. Volume:  1,755,290 Shares
Index Membership:                                  Employees:  13,500

Corporate Governance:
    Audit (Low Concern), Board (Low Concern), Compensation
    (Medium Concern), Shareholder Rights (Medium Concern).

     EPS:   2.46     Dividend Amount: $  0.00       Yield:         0.00%
                    Ex-Dividend Date: N/A         Mkt Cap: $  6,120,000K
                        Payout Ratio:  0.00%

     Last Split Factor (new for old): 2:1      Split Date: Nov 22, 20

Key Statistics:

Enterprise Value: $  8,130,000K           Revenue (ttm)  : $  6,340,000K
                                             Gross Profit: $  3,370,000K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $  1,660,000K

Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm):  1.28           Revenue per Share: $   37.40
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm):   4.91       Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y): 29.50%


P/E Ratio (fwd projected): 12.82      P/E Ratio (current):  14.53

P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected):  0.69  Operating Margin:   16.21%
               Price/Sales Ratio:  0.99     Profit Margin:    6.74%
                Price/Book Value:  1.67        Book Value: $ 22.00/sh.

Return on Assets:   7.15%        Net Income Avl to Common: $   427,480K
Return on Equity:  12.86%          Diluted Earnings/Share:     $  2.46
                              Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):       50.50%

Balance Sheet Items :                   Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr)                      (trailing 12 mo.)

       Total Cash: $  2,940,000K        Operating Cash Flow:$  1,090,000K
       Total Debt: $  4,770,000K        Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$    204,270K
Total Debt/Equity:       126.90
 Total Cash/Share:      $ 17.20
    Current Ratio:         1.69

Share Statistics:                       Stock Price History:

    Shares Outstanding:  171,110K       Stk 52-Week Change: -11.07%
                 Float:  168,280K       S&P 500 52-Wk Chng:   5.37%
  Sh. Short % of Float:     1.60%        50-Day Moving Avg:  37.77
           Short Ratio:     1.00        200-Day Moving Avg:  40.25
% Held by Institutions:    97.70%                     Beta:   1.99
    % Held by Insiders:     0.77%

Analysts' Estimates:               Cur. Qtr   Next Qtr  Cur. Year  Next Year
___________________________          Sep 11     Dec 11     Dec 11     Dec 12

  Average Earnings Estimate           0.65       0.64       2.57       2.79
  Average Revenue  Estimate           810M     1,890M     7,010M     7,950M

Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):

Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr):  19.182      EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY):  11.722
  PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected):   5.861             P/E Ratio (ttm):  14.517
      Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY):  10.550


Annual Income Statements:                          All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          Dec31,2010   Dec31,2009   Dec31,2008

  Total Revenue                          5,601,316    4,397,599    4,269,380
  Cost of Revenue                        2,229,134    1,848,955    1,696,318
  Gross Profit                           3,372,182    2,548,644    2,573,062

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                         0            0            0
  Selling, General & Administrative      1,941,789    1,438,463    1,400,642
  Non-Recurring Expenses                         0            0            0
  Other Operating Expenses                 552,980      433,304      404,479
  Total Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Operating Income or Loss                 877,413      676,877      767,941

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net           62,529      128,144      -80,967
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes         939,942      805,021      686,974
  Interest Expense                         342,204      218,844      162,614
  Income Before Taxes                      597,738      586,177      524,360
  Income Tax Expense                       256,686      204,686      155,255
  Minority Interest                              0            0            0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s          341,052      381,491      369,105

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                        0            0            0
  Extraordinary Items                            0            0            0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                   0            0            0
  Other Items                                    0            0            0
  Net Income                               341,052      381,491      369,105

  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts            0            0            0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shares        341,052      381,491      369,105


Quarterly Income Statements:                           All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                   Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010  Sep30,2010

  Total Revenue                    1,750,113   1,622,837   1,520,098   1,446,151
  Cost of Revenue                    658,931     656,380     596,734     581,588
  Gross Profit                     1,091,182     966,457     923,364     864,563

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                   0           0           0           0
  Selling, General & Adminis.        618,092     535,557     544,793     502,312
  Non-Recurring Expenses                   0           0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses           172,120     155,919     149,403     139,700
  Total Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Operating Income or Loss           300,970     274,981     229,168     222,551

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net     21,215      10,338      22,796      34,726
  Earnings Before Int. & Taxes       322,185     285,319     251,964     257,277
  Interest Expense                    95,715      81,159      79,746      83,458
  Income Before Taxes                226,470     204,160     172,218     173,819
  Income Tax Expense                 112,851     107,402      73,631      55,307
  Minority Interest                        0           0           0           0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s    113,619      96,758      98,587     118,512

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                  0           0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                      0           0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes             0           0           0           0
  Other Items                              0           0           0           0
  Net Income                         113,619      96,758      98,587     118,512

  Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s            0           0           0           0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shs     113,619      96,758      98,587     118,512


Annual Balance Sheets:                                All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                       Dec31,2010     Dec31,2009     Dec31,2008
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents              1,767,501      2,504,064      1,243,251
  Short Term Investments                 537,539        116,289         82,002
  Net Receivables                        974,988        762,089        588,327
  Inventory                              227,191        188,476        139,285
  Other Current Assets                   393,658        220,210        130,705
  Total Current Assets                 3,900,877      3,791,128      2,183,570

  Long-Term Investments                        0              0              0
  Property, Plant & Equipt             2,960,046      2,502,189      1,887,315
  Goodwill                                     0              0              0
  Intangible Assets                      433,208        337,233        317,878
  Accumulated Amortization                     0              0              0
  Other Assets                           410,458        429,800        268,399
  Deferred Long Term Asset Charges       486,098        494,343        430,958
  Total Assets                         8,190,687      7,554,693      5,088,120

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                     1,127,283        828,620        202,526
  Short/Current Long Term Debt           446,995        564,544         99,054
  Other Current Liabilities              158,690        136,533        509,619
  Total Current Liabilities            1,732,968      1,529,697        811,199

  Long Term Debt                       2,818,423      3,016,244      2,193,240
  Other Liabilities                      211,179        145,912        158,652
  Deferred LT Liability Charges          108,544        116,003        138,142
  Minority Interest                            0              0              0
  Negative Goodwill                            0              0              0
  Total Liabilities                    4,871,114      4,807,856      3,301,233

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Stocks Options Warrants                0              0              0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock                   0              0              0
  Preferred Stock                              0              0              0
  Common Stock                               169            166            166
  Retained Earnings                    2,015,950      1,674,898      1,372,904
  Treasury Stock                               0              0              0
  Capital Surplus                      1,364,705      1,239,541        954,192
  Other Stockholder Equity               -61,251       -167,768       -540,375
  Total Stockholder Equity             3,319,573      2,746,837      1,786,887
  Net Tangible Assets                  2,886,365      2,409,604      1,469,009


Quarterly Balance Sheets:                               All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                Jun30,2011   Mar31,2011   Dec31,2010   Sep30,2010
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents       2,533,753    2,428,251    1,767,501    1,666,077
  Short Term Investments          408,652      355,730      537,539      559,118
  Net Receivables               1,218,201    1,083,524      974,988      902,760
  Inventory                       234,603      227,137      227,191      162,832
  Other Current Assets            313,986      349,954      393,658      344,122
  Total Current Assets          4,709,195    4,444,596    3,900,877    3,634,909

  Long-Term Investments                 0      254,484            0            0
  Property, Plant & Equipt      3,318,245    3,092,450    2,960,046    2,727,834
  Goodwill                              0            0            0            0
  Intangible Assets             1,370,976      449,389      433,208      408,806
  Accumulated Amortization              0            0            0            0
  Other Assets                    396,979      371,280      410,458      494,137
  Deferred LT Asset Charges       450,501      455,049      486,098      497,981
  Total Assets                 10,245,896    9,067,248    8,190,687    7,763,667

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable              1,190,189      999,623    1,127,283      920,848
  Current Portion LT Debt       1,413,614      491,975      446,995      417,034
  Other Current Liabilities       177,830      167,650      158,690      153,099
  Total Current Liabilities     2,781,633    1,659,248    1,732,968    1,490,981

  Long Term Debt                3,360,681    3,576,499    2,818,423    2,806,888
  Other Liabilities               240,351      219,472      211,179      207,190
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges       101,027      105,127      108,544       95,540
  Minority Interest                     0            0            0            0
  Negative Goodwill                     0            0            0            0
  Total Liabilities             6,483,692    5,560,346    4,871,114    4,600,599

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, WarrantS               0            0            0            0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock            0            0            0            0
  Preferred Stock                       0            0            0            0
  Common Stock                        170          169          169          168
  Retained Earnings             2,226,327    2,112,708    2,015,950    1,917,363
  Treasury Stock                        0            0            0            0
  Capital Surplus               1,419,296    1,380,014    1,364,705    1,336,476
  Other Stockholder Equity        116,411       14,011      -61,251      -90,939
  Total Stockholder Equity      3,762,204    3,506,902    3,319,573    3,163,068
  Net Tangible Assets           2,391,228    3,057,513    2,886,365    2,754,262


Annual Cash Flow:                                    All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                      Dec31,2010     Dec31,2009     Dec31,2008

  Net Income                            341,052         96,758        369,105
Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                          616,116        491,706        421,063
  Adjustments to Net Income              85,776         22,690        229,252
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls         -223,259       -184,640       -207,630
  Changes in Liabilities                176,073        203,382        148,654
  Changes in Inventories                 37,299         -7,284        -58,623
  Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's              0        -42,590       -107,462
  Total Cash Flow fr Operations         890,814        864,755        794,359

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                 -691,759       -649,578       -804,546
  Investments                          -423,648         -5,121        126,855
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing               0              0              0
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing      -1,176,737       -796,360       -688,477

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                              0              0              0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock              57,685         15,671       -208,893
  Net Borrowings                       -438,242      1,205,170        102,712
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing               0         -5,535              0
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing        -461,163      1,215,306       -106,181

  Effect of Exchange Rate Change         10,523        -22,888       -126,615
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s        -736,563      1,260,813       -126,914


Quarterly Cash Flow:                                   All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                  Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010  Sep30,2010

  Net Income                        113,619      96,758      98,587     118,512

Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                      185,724     170,819     212,539     106,602
  Adjustments to Net Income          52,406      39,576     -40,320      54,519
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls     -135,326     -76,915     -60,303     -54,915
  Changes in Liabilities            187,995     -22,911      68,326      63,293
  Changes in Inventories              9,229      21,262     -30,880      19,415
  Changes in Other Oper'g Acts            0     -24,626    -107,812      43,029
  Total Cash Flow f Operations      400,285     203,963     140,137     350,455

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures             -226,411    -226,131    -185,374    -170,514
  Investments                       113,861     -71,976     147,836     -24,276
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing           0      82,327      -4,107      54,078
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing    -109,713    -215,780     -41,645    -140,712

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                          0           0           0           0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock               0           0      57,685           0
  Net Borrowings                   -246,337     688,307      -3,524    -278,118
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing      59,164     -12,412     -52,092     -87,558
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing    -187,173     675,895       2,069    -365,676

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg             0           0           0      -3,328
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.      105,502     660,750     101,424    -153,858


NIHD   NII Holdings Inc.                  [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
                                          or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28?    1.9270       P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  0.0700       Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    2.1841

Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   2.3232       Inventory/Sales < 5%?      1.2327
Sales < $1 billion?        0.1785       Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.4627

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.0032       Long-Term Debt Service:    1.1778
LTD Being Reduced?         1.2000       Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.8450       Working Capital >= 1.5?    1.1814
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.6073       Debt / Assets < 1?         2.9061
Quick Ratio > 1?           1.3488       Inventory Turnover > 1?    0.2969
Shares Out Decreasing?     0.6000       Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion?  0.2451
                                        Profit Margin > 7.5%?      0.8986
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000       EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   2.9100
Enterprise Value/Revenue:  0.8533       EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%?     1.0880
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   0.7014       EPS Growth Consistent?     1.2000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    3.0000       Collection < 45 days?      0.7083
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%?   3.0000       Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1?    1.8112
EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   2.9100       Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%?   0.8466

Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          1.1689       % Held by Insiders  < 5%?  3.0000
Beta > 1.25?               1.5920       % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.5118
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?     -0.2081       % Held by Institut. > 30?  3.0000
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  0.3580       Short Ratio > 5?           0.2000
Price/Book Value < 3?      2.3300       Short % of Float > 20?     0.0800
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.4206       Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  3.0000       Positive Free Cash Flow?   1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  1.0000       Price to C.F./sh. Ratio:   2.1400
                                        Cash Flow / Assets >.10?   0.1994

NIHD    NII Holdings Inc.               Overall Zenith Index:      1.3388


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The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for NII Holdings:
Symbol? NIHD
Total Months Available: 106
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  46.32   35.64     44.21   37.03     44.05   34.51

RANGE   =  46.32  TO   34.51            Close =  36.80
CHANNEL =  44.05  TO   37.03           Degree =   6
Volatility =  19.08%                    Index =  11
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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News - 1
Comparison + 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index + 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings < 1%+ 1
Cash Flow + 1
Ratios + 1
Market Grader - 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Intrinsic Value DDM + 1
Stock Scout + 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity - 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest - 1
Sentiment - 1
Standard & Poor's + 1
Moving Average + 1
Right Time Study - 1
Stock Fetcher + 1
Point & Figure - 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart + 1
Neural Network - 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total + 5
Place 860 shares of NII Holdings Inc. (NIHD) on the Active List.