01-04-2012: Morgan Stanley (MS): Big Enough Not To Fail and for Options Trading

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Recommendation

Morgan Stanley

Our company president asked us, "Why in the world are you reviewing Morgan Stanley (MS)?" It is definitely not one of our favorite companies, although it has been reviewed on Zenith's site before. We were more sympathetic to it then than now. It seems organizations like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs don't like to have a suffix after their company name, like "Inc., Corp., Company, LLC, S.A., or anything... just "Morgan Stanley" without any suffix, so reluctantly we have complied although we prefer to try to get the right suffix for each company we review. It's just one of very many odd things about this company.

To understand Morgan Stanley's place in Zenith's trading, one must understand that Zenith does not hesitate to buy long or go short any stock based upon short-term technical considerations, even though it may be extremely liked or disliked. Once that is understood, this behemoth organization provides a certain stability just because of its sheer size. It is almost "too big to fail," as they say lately about some bank stocks. Morgan Stanley is an archtype of why we feel bankers should not be brokers and brokers should not be bankers, but this distinction (or restriction) was removed during the Reagan "deregulation" era, when troubles really began for the American economy. The seeds of our recent sub-prime lending crisis were sown at that time by efforts at deregulation by the Reagan Administration. (Sorry, Republicans, but President Reagan did fail badly when it came to regulating telecommunications, air traffic, banks and brokers, oil companies, and the rights to collective bargaining so painfully obtained over the century by the American labor movement. Perhaps Regan was better at foreign affairs, but he raised the national debt more than any other president up until that time. Companies like Morgan Stanley benefitted enormously under him.

The reason we picked it for review is Zenith's recent reawakened interest in options trading. MSNBC's "Option Action" program recently recommended this stock for option trading, and we couldn't agree more.

Morgan Stanley started as a spinoff from J.P. Morgan in 1935. It has been the target of several U.S. Government investigations for illegal trading activities. It is heavily involved in real estate loans contributing to the sub-prime lending crisis. It has branches and interests in holdings all over the world. It acquired Dean Witter from Sears & Roebuck in the 1990's, and also the Van Kampen mutual fund. It also acquired Discover Financial Services. It has brokerage offices in the richest communities all over the U.S., catering to people with a lot of money who don't know what to do with it (or perhaps we should say, don't know what they are doing with it if they are Morgan Stanley customers.)

Morgan Stanley, in our opinion, is one of the worst managed companies in the brokerage, lending, institutional fund and banking businesses, with executives drawing unconscionably large asset-plundering salaries, perqs, bonuses, and golden parachutes for undeserved what we call "good old boy" sit back and do little management.

We were rather shocked and surprised at Morgan Stanley's SEC required filings and annual report, and this is the first time we have rated a company's management reporting a "zero" except for foreign-based companies that don't report at all. This company made it about as hard as we have ever encountered to understand exactly what its financial situation really is, and we found some support from other reviewers unrelated to us drawing the same conclusion. You can get a taste of this in our "Management's Discussion" section. MS has a terrible Zenith Index, and would probably make an excellent short sale candidate.

So who would buy Morgan Stanley stock? It actually has a positive insider trading situation! It turns out one organization by itself based in Japan, Mitsubishi Financial, is buying enough to give the company a positive insider and institutional stock acquisition rating. Mitsu enjoys a "special relationship" with MS, and why not, as it owns about $6 billion worth of company shares, or 23% of the outstanding shares. That number pales in comparison with the $280 billion under asset "management" (and we use the term loosely) controlled by MS.

Many of MS's assets are what we call "toxic." Perhaps the one which is most toxic is MBIA Insurance Co., about which you can read more in the "Research Report" section in the article prepared by Credit Suisse, another bank which likes banks and is the only researcher we could find that liked Morgan Stanley. MBIA is the division most responsible for recent MS losses.

We were unable to pursue to the extent we would have liked the part MS played in the government bailouts of banks. We believe MS received some TARP money, used to pay huge salaries to unscrupulous executives. But MS pours out a huge stream of public relations media news items, making it very difficult to cull out of the past news it has dumped into the media, stories that go back far enough to detail its involvement. News on this company consists mainly of endless upgrading and downgrading of various other company stocks (in its brokerage advisory role), or its participation with other large entities in IPO's, and the stories are so many and so overwhelming that the really important ones are often hard to find. That's the beauty of being so huge, one can bury the overall true picture in a sea of facts, or even fiction.

Our conclusion is that Morgan Stanley is too big to fail, but it can slowly erode away, very slowly, under mediocre management.



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Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is consider strong and > 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Morgan Stanley                   (MS   )    Sector: Financial
1585 Broadway                    Industry: Investment Brokerage - Nation
New York, NY 10036               Exchange: NYSE

Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, provides various financial
products and services to corporations, governments, financial
institutions, and individuals worldwide. It operates in three segments:
Institutional Securities, Global Wealth Management Group, and Asset
Management. The Institutional Securities segment offers financial advisory
services on mergers and acquisitions, divestitures, joint ventures,
corporate restructurings, recapitalizations, spin-offs, exchange offers,
and leveraged buyouts and takeover defenses, as well as shareholder
relations, capital raising, corporate lending, and investments. This
segment also engages in sales, trading, financing, and market-making
activities, including equity trading, commodities, and interest rates,
credit, and currencies, as well as financing services, such as prime
brokerage, consolidated clearance, settlement, custody, financing, and
portfolio reporting services. The Global Wealth Management Group segment
provides brokerage and investment advisory services covering various
investment alternatives comprising equities, options, futures, foreign
currencies, precious metals, fixed income securities, mutual funds,
structured products, alternative investments, unit investment trusts,
lending products; cash management services; retirement services; and trust
and fiduciary services. The Asset Management segment offers products and
services in equity, fixed income, and alternative investments, such as
hedge funds, fund of funds, real estate, private equity, and
infrastructure to institutional and retail clients through proprietary and
third party distribution channels. This segment also involves in
investment and merchant banking activities. The company was founded in
1935 and is headquartered in New York.

Last Trade:  15.13                     52-Week Range:  31.04 -  11.58
Trade Date:  01-02                     Avg. Volume: 35,661,100 Shares
Index Membership:                                  Employees:  62,648

Corporate Governance:
    Audit (Low Concern), Board (Low Concern), Compensation (Low
    Concern), Shareholder Rights (Low Concern).

     EPS:   1.53     Dividend Amount: $  0.20       Yield:         1.30%
                    Ex-Dividend Date: Oct 27, 20  Mkt Cap: $ 29,160,000K
                        Payout Ratio: 11.00%

     Last Split Factor (new for old): 2:1      Split Date: Jan 27, 20

Key Statistics:

Enterprise Value: $%-207,410,000K           Revenue (ttm)  : $ 34,690,000K
                                             Gross Profit: $ 31,620,000K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $          0K

Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm): -5.98           Revenue per Share: $   22.36
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm):   0.00       Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y): 46.40%


P/E Ratio (fwd projected):  7.49      P/E Ratio (current):   9.92

P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected):  1.36  Operating Margin:   29.90%
               Price/Sales Ratio:  0.85     Profit Margin:   14.98%
                Price/Book Value:  0.49        Book Value: $ 31.29/sh.

Return on Assets:   0.72%        Net Income Avl to Common: $ 2,960,000K
Return on Equity:   8.69%          Diluted Earnings/Share:     $  1.53
                              Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):        1.00%

Balance Sheet Items :                   Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr)                      (trailing 12 mo.)

       Total Cash: $652,750,016K        Operating Cash Flow:$ 24,690,000K
       Total Debt: $415,080,000K        Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$          0K
Total Debt/Equity:       592.18
 Total Cash/Share:      $338.67
    Current Ratio:         1.66

Share Statistics:                       Stock Price History:

    Shares Outstanding:1,930,000K       Stk 52-Week Change: -46.86%
                 Float:1,340,000K       S&P 500 52-Wk Chng:  -1.12%
  Sh. Short % of Float:     1.60%        50-Day Moving Avg:  14.99
           Short Ratio:     0.60        200-Day Moving Avg:  17.37
% Held by Institutions:    69.20%                     Beta:   1.19
    % Held by Insiders:     9.95%

Analysts' Estimates:               Cur. Qtr   Next Qtr  Cur. Year  Next Year
___________________________          Dec 11     Mar 12     Dec 11     Dec 12

  Average Earnings Estimate          -0.15       0.49       1.21       2.02
  Average Revenue  Estimate           480M     8,620M    33,190M    33,410M

Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):

Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr):   7.667      EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY):   0.000
  PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected): 118.122             P/E Ratio (ttm):  16.221
      Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY):  14.636


Annual Income Statements:                          All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          Dec31,2010   Dec31,2009   Nov30,2008

  Total Revenue                         31,622,000   23,434,000   62,262,000
  Cost of Revenue                                0            0    1,659,000
  Gross Profit                          31,622,000   23,434,000   60,603,000

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                         0            0            0
  Selling, General & Administrative     25,420,000   22,451,000   20,793,000
  Non-Recurring Expenses                         0            0            0
  Other Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Total Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Operating Income or Loss               6,202,000      983,000   39,810,000

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net        7,278,000    7,477,000            0
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes      12,616,000    7,688,000   39,810,000
  Interest Expense                       6,414,000    6,705,000   37,523,000
  Income Before Taxes                    6,202,000      983,000    2,287,000
  Income Tax Expense                       739,000     -341,000      480,000
  Minority Interest                       -999,000      -60,000            0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s        5,463,000    1,324,000    1,807,000

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                  239,000       82,000     -100,000
  Extraordinary Items                            0            0            0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                   0            0            0
  Other Items                                    0            0            0
  Net Income                             4,703,000    1,346,000    1,707,000

  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts            0            0            0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shares      3,594,000     -907,000    1,588,000


Quarterly Income Statements:                           All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                   Sep30,2011  Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010

  Total Revenue                    9,892,000   9,282,000   7,635,000   7,807,000
  Cost of Revenue                          0           0           0           0
  Gross Profit                     9,892,000   9,282,000   7,635,000   7,807,000

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                   0           0           0           0
  Selling, General & Adminis.      6,214,000   7,338,000   6,763,000   6,624,000
  Non-Recurring Expenses                   0           0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Operating Income or Loss         3,678,000   1,944,000     872,000   1,183,000

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net          0           0           0           0
  Earnings Before Int. & Taxes     5,287,000   3,973,000   2,725,000   2,875,000
  Interest Expense                 1,609,000   2,029,000   1,853,000   1,692,000
  Income Before Taxes              3,678,000   1,944,000     872,000   1,183,000
  Income Tax Expense               1,410,000     542,000    -256,000      86,000
  Minority Interest                  -94,000    -213,000    -162,000    -230,000
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s  2,268,000   1,402,000   1,128,000   1,097,000

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations             25,000       4,000       2,000     -31,000
  Extraordinary Items                      0           0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes             0           0           0           0
  Other Items                              0           0           0           0
  Net Income                       2,199,000   1,193,000     968,000     836,000

  Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s            0           0           0           0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shs   2,147,000    -548,000     736,000     623,000


Annual Balance Sheets:                                All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                       Dec31,2010     Dec31,2009     Nov30,2008
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents            195,868,000    175,199,008    137,742,000
  Short Term Investments                       0              0     72,777,000
  Net Receivables                     73,330,000     68,189,000     45,587,000
  Inventory                                    0              0              0
  Other Current Assets                         0              0              0
  Total Current Assets                         0              0              0

  Long-Term Investments              268,726,016    255,864,000    379,164,000
  Property, Plant & Equipt             6,154,000      7,067,000      5,057,000
  Goodwill                             6,739,000      7,162,000      2,243,000
  Intangible Assets                    4,667,000      5,054,000        895,000
  Accumulated Amortization                     0              0              0
  Other Assets                        13,290,000     16,845,000     15,347,000
  Deferred Long Term Asset Charges             0              0              0
  Total Assets                       807,697,984    771,462,016    658,812,032

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                   414,340,992    380,484,000    120,950,000
  Short/Current Long Term Debt       182,470,000    183,536,992    231,828,992
  Other Current Liabilities           63,812,000     62,215,000     42,755,000
  Total Current Liabilities                    0              0              0

  Long Term Debt                     192,456,992    193,374,000    196,002,000
  Other Liabilities                   93,414,000     85,304,000     16,445,000
  Deferred LT Liability Charges                0              0              0
  Minority Interest                    8,196,000      6,092,000              0
  Negative Goodwill                            0              0              0
  Total Liabilities                  750,486,976    724,774,016    607,980,992

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Stocks Options Warrants                0              0              0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock                   0              0              0
  Preferred Stock                      9,597,000      9,597,000     19,155,000
  Common Stock                            16,000         15,000         12,000
  Retained Earnings                   38,603,000     35,056,000     38,096,000
  Treasury Stock                      -4,059,000     -6,039,000     -7,926,000
  Capital Surplus                     13,521,000      8,619,000      1,619,000
  Other Stockholder Equity              -467,000       -560,000       -125,000
  Total Stockholder Equity            57,211,000     46,688,000     50,831,000
  Net Tangible Assets                 45,805,000     34,472,000     47,693,000


Quarterly Balance Sheets:                               All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                Sep30,2011   Jun30,2011   Mar31,2011   Dec31,2010
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents     223,731,008  231,736,992  215,531,008  195,868,000
  Short Term Investments                0    9,020,000    9,068,000            0
  Net Receivables              85,494,000   83,996,000   80,862,000   73,330,000
  Inventory                             0            0            0            0
  Other Current Assets                  0            0            0            0
  Total Current Assets                  0            0            0            0

  Long-Term Investments       253,795,008  475,344,992  258,471,008  268,726,016
  Property, Plant & Equipt      6,511,000    6,399,000    6,366,000    6,154,000
  Goodwill                      6,709,000    6,744,000    6,743,000    6,739,000
  Intangible Assets             4,370,000    4,474,000    4,581,000    4,667,000
  Accumulated Amortization              0            0            0            0
  Other Assets                 13,109,000   13,032,000   13,558,000   13,290,000
  Deferred LT Asset Charges             0            0            0            0
  Total Assets                794,939,008  830,747,008  836,185,024  807,697,984

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable            443,912,992  448,553,984  437,455,008  414,340,992
  Current Portion LT Debt     127,969,000   24,307,000   21,371,000  182,470,000
  Other Current Liabilities    66,184,000   65,525,000   63,495,000   63,812,000
  Total Current Liabilities             0            0            0            0

  Long Term Debt              211,248,992  218,582,000  209,094,000  192,456,992
  Other Liabilities            93,147,000  225,791,008  251,520,992   93,414,000
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges             0            0            0            0
  Minority Interest             8,266,000    8,436,000    8,322,000    8,196,000
  Negative Goodwill                     0            0            0            0
  Total Liabilities           733,110,976  771,040,000  777,998,976  750,486,976

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, WarrantS               0            0            0            0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock            0            0            0            0
  Preferred Stock               1,508,000    1,508,000    9,597,000    9,597,000
  Common Stock                     20,000       20,000       16,000       16,000
  Retained Earnings            40,710,000   38,637,000   39,269,000   38,603,000
  Treasury Stock               -2,498,000   -2,484,000   -2,455,000   -4,059,000
  Capital Surplus              22,501,000   22,346,000   12,185,000   13,521,000
  Other Stockholder Equity       -413,000     -320,000     -426,000     -467,000
  Total Stockholder Equity     61,828,000   59,707,000   58,186,000   57,211,000
  Net Tangible Assets          50,749,000   48,489,000   46,862,000   45,805,000


Annual Cash Flow:                                    All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                      Dec31,2010     Dec31,2009     Nov30,2008

  Net Income                          4,703,000      1,193,000      1,707,000
Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                        1,419,000      1,224,000        794,000
  Adjustments to Net Income           1,052,000         59,000     -2,592,000
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls       -9,568,000     -2,445,000     54,531,000
  Changes in Liabilities             18,001,000    -20,276,000   -114,500,000
  Changes in Inventories                      0              0              0
  Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's              0    -25,919,000    133,477,000
  Total Cash Flow fr Operations      40,307,000    -45,951,000     73,417,000

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures               -1,201,000     -2,877,000     -1,400,000
  Investments                       -28,001,000              0              0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing               0     -1,595,000      2,129,000
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing     -29,157,000     -4,472,000        729,000

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                     -1,488,000     -1,732,000     -1,227,000
  Sale or Purchase of Stock           5,179,000     -4,830,000     17,566,000
  Net Borrowings                     -1,130,000     -1,376,000    -47,468,000
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing               0     10,962,000     12,585,000
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing       4,163,000      3,024,000    -18,544,000

  Effect of Exchange Rate Change        311,000        720,000     -2,546,000
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s      15,624,000    -46,679,000     53,056,000


Quarterly Cash Flow:                                   All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                  Sep30,2011  Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010

  Net Income                      2,199,000   1,193,000     968,000     836,000

Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                      428,000     380,000     379,000    -418,000
  Adjustments to Net Income         258,000     379,000   1,014,000    -543,000
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls    2,282,000   1,146,000  -7,417,000  -3,487,000
  Changes in Liabilities         -2,847,000 -19,007,000  -1,244,000   8,596,000
  Changes in Inventories                  0           0           0           0
  Changes in Other Oper'g Acts            0  11,844,000   4,816,000  15,841,000
  Total Cash Flow f Operations    8,812,000  -3,852,000  -1,322,000  21,055,000

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures             -363,000    -316,000    -409,000    -401,000
  Investments                    -2,772,000   2,659,000   2,954,000  -4,905,000
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing           0           0           0      26,000
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing  -3,135,000   2,343,000   2,545,000  -5,033,000

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                   -456,000    -438,000    -309,000    -601,000
  Sale or Purchase of Stock        -120,000      47,000    -184,000     -28,000
  Net Borrowings                 -2,433,000  -1,707,000   3,597,000  -3,399,000
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing     660,000   2,030,000    -288,000   2,611,000
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing  -2,349,000     -68,000   2,816,000  -1,417,000

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg             0           0           0    -228,000
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.    3,160,000  -1,861,000   4,993,000  14,500,000


MS     Morgan Stanley                     [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
                                          or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28?    2.8226       P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  2.0800       Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    3.0000

Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   2.7059       Inventory/Sales < 5%?      1.0000
Sales < $1 billion?        0.0316       Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.2508

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.0007       Long-Term Debt Service:    0.2973
LTD Being Reduced?         1.8000       Short-Term Debt Service:   0.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.8300       Working Capital >= 1.5?    1.0000
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.7145       Debt / Assets < 1?         3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           1.0000       Inventory Turnover > 1?    1.0000
Shares Out Decreasing?     1.8000       Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion?  0.0514
                                        Profit Margin > 7.5%?      1.9973
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     3.0000       EPS Annual Growth > 10%?  -3.0000
Enterprise Value/Revenue: -3.0000       EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%?    -3.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   0.0000       EPS Growth Consistent?     1.8000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.1000       Collection < 45 days?      0.0532
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%?   3.0000       Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1?    0.1019
EPS Annual Growth > 10%?  -3.0000       Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%?   3.0000

Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          3.0000       % Held by Insiders  < 5%?  0.5025
Beta > 1.25?               0.9520       % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.7225
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?     -0.4719       % Held by Institut. > 30?  2.3067
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500: -0.0747       Short Ratio > 5?           0.1200
Price/Book Value < 3?      3.0000       Short % of Float > 20?     0.0800
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.0424       Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  1.0000       Positive Free Cash Flow?   0.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  1.0000       Price to C.F./sh. Ratio:   0.0000
                                        Cash Flow / Assets >.10?   0.0000

MS      Morgan Stanley                  Overall Zenith Index:      0.9335


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Projected Earnings

Earnings Estimates
Earnings Estimates



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Research Reports

Click Here for Research Reports



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Analysts' Opinions

Analysts' Opinion 1
Analysts' Opinion 2



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Insider Activity

Insiders Chart Insider Trades
Executive Compensation Executive Compensation



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Institutional Activity

Institutional Orders to Buy or Sell:

Ownership:

institutions 1 institutions 2 institutions 3 institutions 4 institutions 4 institutions 4



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Sentiment

sentiment

Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.

sentiment sentiment



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Short Interest Ratio

As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.

short interest short interest


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Stock Report

S&P Stock Report (Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader)



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Management's Discussion of Results of Operations Excerpts

Click Here for Management's Discussion Excerpts



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Moving Average Chart



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Right Time Study



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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for Morgan Stanley:
Symbol? MS
Total Months Available:  79
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  31.04   25.32     26.49   15.21     19.67   11.58

RANGE   =  31.04  TO   11.58            Close =  15.24
CHANNEL =  25.32  TO   19.67           Degree =   3
Volatility =  37.09%                    Index =  11
Channel Chart


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Intraday Chart

2 Days:



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Stock Fetcher

Fetcher Fetcher


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Point & Figure Chart

P & F Chart


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Wall Street Analyzer




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Marketspace Chart

Marketspace Chart



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Time Series Forecast

Time Series 1 Time Series 2


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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

Neural Chart Heading
Neural Trades Neural Prediction



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Ultimate Trading Systems

The "ultimate systems" are inconclusive, giving no clear confirmed signals.

The corresponding trades for the above chart are shown in tabular form below.



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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News - 1
Comparison + 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index - 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings < 1%+ 1
Cash Flow + 1
Ratios + 1
Market Grader - 1
Intrinsic Value DCF - 1
Intrinsic Value DDM + 1
Stock Scout + 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts - 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity + 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting - 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment - 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
Moving Average - 1
Right Time Study + 1
Stock Fetcher 0
Point & Figure - 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network - 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems 0
Total - 3
Place 1,980 shares of Morgan Stanley (MS) on the Active List.