01-13-2012: MGM Resorts International, Inc. (MGM): Possible Over-Expansion and a Bridge Too Far

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Recommendation

MGM Resorts International, Inc.

We start out by asking, "What is the difference between MGM Grand, MGM Mirage, and MGM Resorts, International?" Answer: "Nothing." These are simply name changes the company has had recently, in fact so recently that many data source websites haven't caught up with the latest one yet. The latest change is reputed to have been partially caused by a disdain for the word "Mirage," which instead of being the actual name for one of its casino properties, could be mistaken for its prospects. The company website would have you believe that it has swallowed up Las Vegas completely. It lists among its properties City Center, AIRA, Bellagio, Vdara, MGM Grand, Manadalay Bay, Mirage, Monte Carlo, New York-New York, Luxor, Excalibur, Circus Circus, Railroad Pass, not to mention casinos in Reno, Jean, Tunica, Biloxi, and Detroit (this last grouop outside Las Vegas), and MGM Macau. Many of these holdings are partial interests. MGM Resorts also operates MGM Hospitality, a booking service in conjunction with many other casinos.

In this day and age a debate is forming in the Republican Party regarding the nature of certain "corporate raiders." Bain Capital has taken center stage as a liability for candidate Mitt Romney, who is accused of acquiring many going concerns in America, stripping them of assets or forcing them into bankruptcy, costing hundreds of jobs or exporting jobs overseas, and then leaving employees destitute while walking off with billions in former company assets. This sort of corporate plundering is common in America as one of the worst aspects of capitalism. Corporate raiders don't go after failing companies to make them better, but rather go after thriving companies with a lot of cash, which are then driven into debt or even bankruptcy, while the raiders walk off with billions. MGM Resorts was certainly not immune from this, for Kirk Kirkorian, acquired 80% of MGM Grand in the early 1980's, and placed his mark on the company. Eventually, a welcome headline read, "Kirkorian leaves MGM Borad of Directors," as he sold off his holdings, often in huge amounts causing the stock to drop as much as 11% in one day at the peak. But his presence is still felt through his "Tracinda Corporation," which still holds 22% of the outstanding shares. The selloff of Kirkorian interest eventually became more "gradual," but the company stock and the company as a whole has suffered greatly from it and is highly debt-ridden after extremely over-ambitious expansion plans.

We and a lot of researchers have concluded this is the stock you do NOT want to own as a "buy and hold" stock. The company has a lot wrong with it, in just about every way imaginable, not just after suffering from corporate raiders. The company has had its share of natural disasters, from a fire that destroyed the "Grand" at one point (although re-built after encountering a lot of liability lawsuits) to Hurricane Katrina that ravaged its Biloxi property.

The company is also beholden to Dubai World, the investment arm of the Government of Dubai. This gives it expansion opportunities in Dubai. Its biggest prospect may well be in Macau, and it has interests in China where the government there tolerates gambling only in very restricted selected spots. (Gambling, by the way, is not tolerated in much of Islam and the Middle East, also, which gives a very big question mark about Dubai.)

News in the company is centered around its interests in "City Center," a new development in Las Vegas that is the largest construction site in America. Some think this is a risk way too big and a possible liability that could overwhelm the company. The lower-bidder contractor, Perini-Tutor, is known as the "change order king" of contractors, often under-bidding a project where it sees flaws in the design and plans, and then foreseeing later change orders that dwarf the original bid.

The company CEO owns an unconscionable $71 million of exercisable stock options he could dump on the market at any time, giving MGM an extremely negative executive compensation rating. Institutions are dumping the stock, not the least of which is Tracinda. Stock shares have shown surprising strength in recent days, however. The company stock makes an excellent vehicle for options trading in our opinion.

Analysts, which react more quickly than researchers, seem to have turned very positive on the stock, something for which we cannot account. They are projecting substanial losses for the company through 2012. Market Grader is also running counter to most of the researchers.

We rate news on the company as positive largely because there seems to be about to be a toleration of Internet gambling in this country, which could lead to a big opportunity for MGM Resorts to cash in on that unfortunate trend.

The company has a marginal to poor Zenith Index and its books are a little hard to grasp as it is reporting a huge short-term jump in earnings in what is obviously an overall long-term loss situation. Nor are the remaining assets relative to share price after Kerkorian particularly attractive to any more raiders. 



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is consider strong and > 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

MGM Resorts International        (MGM  )    Sector: Services
3600 Las Vegas Boulevard South   Industry: Resorts & Casinos
Las Vegas, NV 89109              Exchange: NYSE

MGM Resorts International, through its subsidiaries, primarily owns and
operates casino resorts in the United States. The company-Æs resorts offer
gaming, hotel, dining, entertainment, retail, and other resort amenities.
It also owns and operates golf courses and a golf club. As of December 31,
2010, the company owned and operated 15 properties located in Nevada,
Mississippi, and Michigan; and has 50% investments in 4 other casino
resorts in Nevada, Illinois, and Macau. In addition, MGM Resorts
International has an agreement with the Mashantucket Pequot Tribal Nation,
which owns and operates a casino resort in Connecticut, to carry the -æMGM
Grand-Æ brand name. The company was formerly known as MGM MIRAGE and
changed its name to MGM Resorts International in June 2010. MGM Resorts
International was founded in 1986 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Last Trade:  11.44                     52-Week Range:  16.94 -   7.40
Trade Date:  01-11                     Avg. Volume: 16,863,700 Shares
Index Membership:                                  Employees:  45,000

Corporate Governance:
    Audit (Low Concern), Board (Low Concern),
    Compensation (High Concern), Shareholder Rights (Low Concern).

     EPS:   5.79     Dividend Amount: $  0.00       Yield:         0.00%
                    Ex-Dividend Date: Feb 8, 200  Mkt Cap: $  5,590,000K
                        Payout Ratio:  0.00%

     Last Split Factor (new for old): 2:1      Split Date: May 19, 20

Key Statistics:

Enterprise Value: $ 17,080,000K           Revenue (ttm)  : $  6,990,000K
                                             Gross Profit: $  2,260,000K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $  1,260,000K

Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm):  2.44           Revenue per Share: $   14.39
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm):  13.55       Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y): 42.50%


P/E Ratio (fwd projected):  0.00      P/E Ratio (current):   1.98

P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected): -1.66  Operating Margin:    7.65%
               Price/Sales Ratio:  0.80     Profit Margin:   44.19%
                Price/Book Value:  0.89        Book Value: $ 12.79/sh.

Return on Assets:   1.42%        Net Income Avl to Common: $ 3,090,000K
Return on Equity:  49.91%          Diluted Earnings/Share:     $  5.79
                              Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):        0.00%

Balance Sheet Items :                   Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr)                      (trailing 12 mo.)

       Total Cash: $  1,970,000K        Operating Cash Flow:$    604,660K
       Total Debt: $ 13,450,000K        Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$    582,110K
Total Debt/Equity:       135.30
 Total Cash/Share:      $  4.02
    Current Ratio:         1.35

Share Statistics:                       Stock Price History:

    Shares Outstanding:  488,830K       Stk 52-Week Change: -29.94%
                 Float:  310,420K       S&P 500 52-Wk Chng:   0.48%
  Sh. Short % of Float:    12.00%        50-Day Moving Avg:  10.07
           Short Ratio:     3.40        200-Day Moving Avg:  11.18
% Held by Institutions:    55.60%                     Beta:   4.35
    % Held by Insiders:    28.15%

Analysts' Estimates:               Cur. Qtr   Next Qtr  Cur. Year  Next Year
___________________________          Dec 11     Mar 12     Dec 11     Dec 12

  Average Earnings Estimate          -0.19      -0.14      -0.53      -0.39
  Average Revenue  Estimate           160M     2,270M     7,680M     9,170M

Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):

Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr):   2.789      EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY):   0.000
  PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected):   2.208             P/E Ratio (ttm):  26.735
      Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY):  10.600


Annual Income Statements:                          All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          Dec31,2010   Dec31,2009   Dec31,2008

  Total Revenue                          6,019,233    5,978,589    7,208,767
  Cost of Revenue                        3,757,542    3,539,306    4,034,374
  Gross Profit                           2,261,691    2,439,283    3,174,393

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                         0            0            0
  Selling, General & Administrative      2,704,518    2,572,646    1,387,780
  Non-Recurring Expenses                     4,247       53,013    1,234,251
  Other Operating Expenses                 633,423      689,273      778,236
  Total Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Operating Income or Loss              -1,158,931     -963,876     -225,874

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net           56,486     -273,286      104,460
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes      -2,216,025   -2,012,593      -59,702
  Interest Expense                               0            0      609,286
  Income Before Taxes                   -2,216,025   -2,012,593     -668,988
  Income Tax Expense                      -778,628     -720,911      186,298
  Minority Interest                              0            0            0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s       -1,515,831   -1,379,909     -855,286

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                        0            0            0
  Extraordinary Items                            0            0            0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                   0            0            0
  Other Items                                    0            0            0
  Net Income                            -1,437,397   -1,291,682     -855,286

  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts            0            0            0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shares     -1,437,397   -1,291,682     -855,286


Quarterly Income Statements:                           All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                   Sep30,2011  Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010

  Total Revenue                    2,233,587   1,813,882   1,504,954   1,438,534
  Cost of Revenue                  1,442,623   1,138,505     940,057     899,338
  Gross Profit                       790,964     675,377     564,897     539,196

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                   0           0           0           0
  Selling, General & Adminis.      3,925,414  -3,153,507     306,138     312,409
  Non-Recurring Expenses                   0        -316           0         186
  Other Operating Expenses           249,520     177,467     152,397     146,666
  Total Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Operating Income or Loss           112,574   3,683,760     169,705     107,210

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net  3,469,718     -41,019     -44,245     -19,147
  Earnings Before Int. & Taxes        86,287   3,642,741     125,460  -1,025,517
  Interest Expense                   272,542     270,224     269,914    -840,483
  Income Before Taxes               -186,255   3,372,517    -144,454    -185,034
  Income Tax Expense                 -79,680     -78,174     -54,583     -45,845
  Minority Interest                  -17,211      -8,706           0           0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s   -123,247   3,474,012     -26,528    -111,914

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                  0           0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                      0           0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes             0           0           0           0
  Other Items                              0           0           0           0
  Net Income                        -123,786   3,441,985     -89,871    -139,189

  Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s            0           0           0           0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shs    -123,786   3,441,985     -89,871    -139,189


Annual Balance Sheets:                                All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                       Dec31,2010     Dec31,2009     Dec31,2008
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                498,964      2,056,207        295,644
  Short Term Investments                       0              0              0
  Net Receivables                        607,968        791,516        431,254
  Inventory                               96,392        101,809        650,480
  Other Current Assets                   252,321        103,969        155,652
  Total Current Assets                 1,455,645      3,053,501      1,533,030

  Long-Term Investments                1,923,155      3,611,799      4,642,865
  Property, Plant & Equipt            14,554,350     15,069,952     16,289,154
  Goodwill                                86,353         86,353         86,353
  Intangible Assets                      342,804        344,253        347,209
  Accumulated Amortization                     0              0              0
  Other Assets                           598,738        352,352        376,105
  Deferred Long Term Asset Charges             0              0              0
  Total Assets                        18,961,044     22,518,210     23,274,716

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                     1,246,221      1,303,777      1,924,689
  Short/Current Long Term Debt                 0      1,079,824      1,047,614
  Other Current Liabilities                    0              0         30,273
  Total Current Liabilities            1,246,221      2,383,601      3,002,576

  Long Term Debt                      12,047,698     12,976,037     12,416,552
  Other Liabilities                      199,248        256,837        440,029
  Deferred LT Liability Charges        2,469,333      3,031,303      3,441,198
  Minority Interest                            0              0              0
  Negative Goodwill                            0              0              0
  Total Liabilities                   15,962,500     18,647,778     19,300,356

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Stocks Options Warrants                0              0              0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock                   0              0              0
  Preferred Stock                              0              0              0
  Common Stock                             4,885          4,412          3,693
  Retained Earnings                   -1,066,865        370,532      3,365,122
  Treasury Stock                               0              0     -3,355,963
  Capital Surplus                      4,060,826      3,497,425      4,018,410
  Other Stockholder Equity                  -301         -1,937        -56,901
  Total Stockholder Equity             2,998,545      3,870,432      3,974,361
  Net Tangible Assets                  2,569,388      3,439,826      3,540,799


Quarterly Balance Sheets:                               All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                Sep30,2011   Jun30,2011   Mar31,2011   Dec31,2010
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents       1,815,125      921,553      431,275      498,964
  Short Term Investments                0            0            0            0
  Net Receivables                 542,865      521,119      575,992      607,968
  Inventory                       104,279      105,318       95,097       96,392
  Other Current Assets            259,538      245,290      264,047      252,321
  Total Current Assets          2,721,807    1,793,280    1,366,411    1,455,645

  Long-Term Investments         1,659,719    1,690,136    1,941,786    1,923,155
  Property, Plant & Equipt     14,868,394   15,017,905   14,426,622   14,554,350
  Goodwill                      2,905,378    2,906,755       86,353       86,353
  Intangible Assets             5,120,662    5,209,866      342,626      342,804
  Accumulated Amortization              0            0            0            0
  Other Assets                    577,063      598,248      596,551      598,738
  Deferred LT Asset Charges             0            0            0            0
  Total Assets                 27,853,024   27,216,190   18,760,348   18,961,044

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable              1,663,739    1,585,025    1,172,440    1,246,221
  Current Portion LT Debt         351,608            0            0            0
  Other Current Liabilities             0            0            0            0
  Total Current Liabilities     2,015,347    1,585,025    1,172,440    1,246,221

  Long Term Debt               13,099,074   12,630,291   12,081,108   12,047,698
  Other Liabilities               193,578      219,484      215,764      199,248
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges     2,603,418    2,736,116    2,371,875    2,469,333
  Minority Interest             3,692,750    3,679,423            0            0
  Negative Goodwill                     0            0            0            0
  Total Liabilities            21,604,168   20,850,340   15,841,187   15,962,500

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, WarrantS               0            0            0            0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock            0            0            0            0
  Preferred Stock                       0            0            0            0
  Common Stock                      4,886        4,886        4,886        4,885
  Retained Earnings             2,161,463    2,285,249   -1,156,736   -1,066,865
  Treasury Stock                        0            0            0            0
  Capital Surplus               4,085,783    4,077,236    4,068,751    4,060,826
  Other Stockholder Equity         -3,276       -1,520        2,261         -301
  Total Stockholder Equity      6,248,856    6,365,851    2,919,162    2,998,545
  Net Tangible Assets          -1,777,184   -1,750,770    2,490,183    2,569,388


Annual Cash Flow:                                    All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                      Dec31,2010     Dec31,2009     Dec31,2008

  Net Income                         -1,437,397      3,441,985       -855,286
Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                          721,406        740,125        788,856
  Adjustments to Net Income           1,033,451      1,578,846      1,312,143
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls          -17,376       -121,088         20,500
  Changes in Liabilities                 11,208         37,158       -187,858
  Changes in Inventories                  5,418          6,571         12,366
  Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's              0       -362,016       -337,689
  Total Cash Flow fr Operations         504,014        587,914        753,032

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                 -207,491       -136,850       -781,754
  Investments                          -567,941       -963,685     -1,279,462
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing               0        770,280         79,776
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing        -586,079       -330,255     -1,981,440

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                              0              0              0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock             588,456      1,104,418     -1,226,740
  Net Borrowings                     -1,872,710        547,143      2,341,094
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing               0              0              0
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing      -1,475,178      1,488,750      1,122,082

  Effect of Exchange Rate Change              0              0              0
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s      -1,557,243      1,746,409       -106,326


Quarterly Cash Flow:                                   All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                  Sep30,2011  Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010

  Net Income                       -123,786   3,441,985     -89,871    -139,189

Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                      272,650     201,091     175,955     170,472
  Adjustments to Net Income          51,807  -3,556,129     -32,735      39,513
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls     -100,125      -2,522      -4,486      -4,798
  Changes in Liabilities             66,469     -31,208     -12,761      57,862
  Changes in Inventories              1,035      -1,935       1,294      -2,912
  Changes in Other Oper'g Acts            0     212,957     -13,418       2,668
  Total Cash Flow f Operations      184,117     272,945      23,978     123,616

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures              -91,146     -50,719     -34,459     -78,952
  Investments                       -92,032    -117,080    -135,698    -270,117
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing           0     499,482      59,620     183,912
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing     -95,269     331,683    -110,537    -165,157

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                          0           0           0           0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock               0           0           0     669,934
  Net Borrowings                    807,996    -113,399      19,530    -591,429
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing      -3,186        -704        -660     -82,457
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing     804,810    -114,103      18,870     -12,252

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg             0           0           0        -247
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.      893,572     490,278     -67,689     -53,793


MGM    MGM Resorts International          [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
                                          or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28?    3.0000       P/E Ratio > 5?             0.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate: -3.0000       Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    0.0000

Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   2.8750       Inventory/Sales < 5%?      3.0000
Sales < $1 billion?        0.1661       Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.9804

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.0030       Long-Term Debt Service:    0.2489
LTD Being Reduced?         0.6000       Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.6750       Working Capital >= 1.5?    1.4809
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.4690       Debt / Assets < 1?         1.5738
Quick Ratio > 1?           1.1700       Inventory Turnover > 1?    0.0250
Shares Out Decreasing?     1.2000       Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion?  0.2683
                                        Profit Margin > 7.5%?      3.0000
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000       EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   3.0000
Enterprise Value/Revenue:  1.6267       EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%?    -2.9660
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   1.9357       EPS Growth Consistent?     1.2000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0000       Collection < 45 days?      1.2206
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%?   3.0000       Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1?    3.0000
EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   3.0000       Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%?   3.0000

Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          3.0000       % Held by Insiders  < 5%?  0.1776
Beta > 1.25?               3.0000       % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.8993
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?     -0.2911       % Held by Institut. > 30?  1.8533
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  0.0320       Short Ratio > 5?           0.6800
Price/Book Value < 3?      3.0000       Short % of Float > 20?     0.6000
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.0835       Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  1.0387       Positive Free Cash Flow?   1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  1.0000       Price to C.F./sh. Ratio:   0.6859
                                        Cash Flow / Assets >.10?   0.2090

MGM     MGM Resorts International       Overall Zenith Index:      1.1642


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Intrinsic Value by Projected Earnings Growth Method:

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for MGM Resorts International:
Symbol? MGM
Total Months Available:  49
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  16.94   12.15     16.05    9.01     12.41    7.40

RANGE   =  16.94  TO    7.40            Close =  11.44
CHANNEL =  12.41  TO   12.15           Degree =   0
Volatility =   2.27%                    Index =   0
Channel Chart


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Intraday Chart

2 Days:



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Stock Fetcher

Fetcher Fetcher


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Point & Figure Chart

P & F Chart


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Wall Street Analyzer




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Marketspace Chart

Marketspace Chart



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Time Series Forecast

Time Series 1 Time Series 2


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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

Neural Chart Heading
Neural Trades Neural Prediction



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Ultimate Trading Systems

The corresponding trades for the above chart are shown in tabular form below.



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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison - 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index - 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings < 1%+ 1
Cash Flow - 1
Ratios - 1
Market Grader + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF - 1
Intrinsic Value DDM - 1
Stock Scout - 1
Projected Earnings - 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity - 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
Moving Average + 1
Right Time Study + 1
Stock Fetcher - 1
Point & Figure - 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network 0
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total - 7
Place 2,620 shares of MGM Resorts International, Inc. (MGM) on the Active List.