02-03-2010: Metropolitan Healthcare Networks Inc. (MDF): Needs a Better Listing and Website

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Recommendation

Metropolitan Healthcare Networks Inc.

Since healthcare reform continues to be in the news, healthcare management stocks have had some volatility and trading opportunities. Metropolitan Healthcare Networks is a smaller Florida-based organization serving Florida's East Coast. It is one of the rare AMEX stocks we follow. It has quickly migrated from its initial position as an OTC-BB bulletin board stock to one that is listed on the AMEX. It is below $5 per share, which means it does not enjoy a large following of major analysts, which somewhat restricts information and the normal guidance sources we use. For example, there is no S&P Stock Guide report. It is growing somewhat, with 33,000 subscribers. Average volume of the stock remains below our desired 300,000 share per day level. It appears to have very good corporate governance, although we were not impressed by the fact that a limited amount of stock options perquisites are provided to some managers but not to the general public (no listed options.)

Institutions are accumulating the stock, and in particular one that we trust very much, Dimensional Fund Advisors. We are always encouraged when this organization accumulates one of our selections. The company is also favored by our two favorite researchers, Market Grader and Street.Com, although other analysts and researchers are mostly neutral to negative.

The company has an extremely unimpressive website, which is a bit unusual for healthcare companies. Normally this is a sign of lack of concern for shareholders.

The company is in what we consider a weak industry group, but its stock has shown recent strength. Still, technically, by our standards, the stock chart is extremely bearish causing us to downrate it with many negative technical indicators. The strength of its financials and balance sheet cause us to give it an overall positive rating.

Metropolitan Healthcare Networks, which filed not too long ago to become its present status as aa health maintenance organization (HMO), has a rather long list of substantial competitors.

We see a rather limited growth potential and some slowing in growth after Met Healthcare Networks used public offering funds to make some initial acquisitions. But we are impressed by some of the organizations that perceive this as a "sleeper stock" which may have been held back more by a lack of being listed on either the NYSE or the NASDAQ. We normally try to avoid stocks under $5/share, but when we see who is buying the stock, we tend to make an exception.



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Metropolitan Health Networks In  (MDF  )    Sector: Healthcare
250 Australian Avenue South      Industry: Health Care Plans
Suite 400                        Exchange: AMEX
West Palm Beach, Florida

Metropolitan Health Networks, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns
and operates provider service networks (PSN) in the United States.
The company-Ęs PSN provides and arranges medical care to medicare
beneficiaries in Flagler, Volusia, and St. Johns counties in central
Florida; and Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties in south
Florida. The company offers Medicare, a national health insurance
program that covers the cost of hospitalization, medical care, and
related health services for citizens aged 65 and older, qualifying
disabled persons, and persons suffering from end-staged renal
disease. As of December 31, 2008, the PSN provided healthcare
benefits to approximately 33,000 medicare advantage beneficiaries
respectively. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered
in West Palm Beach, Florida.

Last Trade:   2.15                     52-Week Range:   2.50 -   1.06
Trade Date:  02-02                     Avg. Volume:    147,829 Shares
Index Membership: N/A                              Employees:     178

Corporate Governance:
Metropolitan Health Networks Inc.'s Corporate Governance Quotient
(CGQ-«) as of 1-Feb-10 is better than 91% of Russell 3000 companies
and 82.1% of Health Care Equipment & Services companies.

     EPS:   0.27     Dividend Amount: $  0.00       Yield:         0.00%
                    Ex-Dividend Date: N/A         Mkt Cap: $     91,050K
                        Payout Ratio:  0.00%

     Last Split Factor (new for old): N/A      Split Date: N/A

Key Statistics:

Enterprise Value: $     55,230K           Revenue (ttm)  : $    345,690K
                                             Gross Profit: $     36,740K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $     20,110K

Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm):  0.16           Revenue per Share: $    7.72
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm):   2.75       Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y): 11.60%


P/E Ratio (fwd projected):  8.60      P/E Ratio (current):   8.11

P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected):  0.35  Operating Margin:    5.56%
               Price/Sales Ratio:  0.26     Profit Margin:    3.52%
                Price/Book Value:  2.23        Book Value: $  0.97/sh.

Return on Assets:  22.97%        Net Income Avl to Common: $    12,130K
Return on Equity:  27.21%          Diluted Earnings/Share:     $  0.27
                              Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):      -43.20%

Balance Sheet Items :                   Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr)                      (trailing 12 mo.)

       Total Cash: $     37,190K        Operating Cash Flow:$     13,560K
       Total Debt: $        875K        Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$     11,980K
Total Debt/Equity:         0.00
 Total Cash/Share:      $  0.88
    Current Ratio:         5.47

Share Statistics:                       Stock Price History:

    Shares Outstanding:   42,350K       Stk 52-Week Change:  44.30%
                 Float:   25,900K       S&P 500 52-Wk Chng:  31.95%
  Sh. Short % of Float:     2.50%        50-Day Moving Avg:   2.13
           Short Ratio:     5.40        200-Day Moving Avg:   2.15
% Held by Institutions:    26.80%                     Beta:   0.83
    % Held by Insiders:    34.54%

Analysts' Estimates:               Cur. Qtr   Next Qtr  Cur. Year  Next Year
___________________________          Dec-09     Mar-10     Dec-09     Dec-10

  Average Earnings Estimate           0.05       0.07       0.26       0.25
  Average Revenue  Estimate            89M        93M       354M       368M

Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):

Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr): 0.000          EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY): -.364
  PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected): 0.187                 P/E Ratio (ttm): 0.102
      Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY): 0.464


Annual Income Statements:                          All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          31-Dec-08    31-Dec-07    31-Dec-06

  Total Revenue                            317,212      277,577      228,216
  Cost of Revenue                          280,472      240,696      205,619
  Gross Profit                              36,740       36,881       22,597

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                         0            0            0
  Selling, General & Administrative         26,071       28,226       22,830
  Non-Recurring Expenses                         0          584            0
  Other Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Total Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Operating Income or Loss                  10,668        8,072         -233

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net            5,950        1,369        1,059
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes          16,619        9,441          826
  Interest Expense                               0            0            0
  Income Before Taxes                       16,619        9,441          826
  Income Tax Expense                         6,414        3,527          353
  Minority Interest                              0            0            0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s           10,204        5,914          473

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                        0            0            0
  Extraordinary Items                            0            0            0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                   0            0            0
  Other Items                                    0            0            0
  Net Income                                10,204        5,914          473

  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts            0            0            0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shares         10,204        5,914          473


Quarterly Income Statements:                           All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                    30-Sep-09   30-Jun-09   31-Mar-09   31-Dec-08

  Total Revenue                       88,138      87,076      90,441      80,036
  Cost of Revenue                     80,511      78,179      79,506      70,702
  Gross Profit                         7,627       8,897      10,935       9,335

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                   0           0           0           0
  Selling, General & Adminis.          4,235       4,239       4,574       4,517
  Non-Recurring Expenses                 445        -445           0       5,798
  Other Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Operating Income or Loss             3,759       5,104       6,361        -980

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net        891          30         235       5,713
  Earnings Before Int. & Taxes         3,839       5,134       6,596       4,733
  Interest Expense                         0           0           0           0
  Income Before Taxes                  3,839       5,134       6,596       4,733
  Income Tax Expense                   1,412       1,982       2,561       2,163
  Minority Interest                        0           0           0           0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s      2,426       3,152       4,034       2,570

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                  0           0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                      0           0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes             0           0           0           0
  Other Items                              0           0           0           0
  Net Income                           2,426       3,152       4,034       2,570

  Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s            0           0           0           0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shs       2,426       3,152       4,034       2,570


Annual Balance Sheets:                                All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                        31-Dec-08      31-Dec-07      31-Dec-06
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                  2,701         38,682         23,110
  Short Term Investments                  33,641              0              0
  Net Receivables                          3,372          4,469          5,246
  Inventory                                  316            196            285
  Other Current Assets                       837          1,416          1,824
  Total Current Assets                    40,867         44,764         30,465

  Long-Term Investments                        0            689            689
  Property, Plant & Equipt                 1,336          2,181          2,275
  Goodwill                                 2,587          2,586          1,992
  Intangible Assets                        1,184          1,588              0
  Accumulated Amortization                     0              0              0
  Other Assets                             2,189            600            653
  Deferred Long Term Asset Charges           981          1,403          5,767
  Total Assets                            49,144         53,811         41,841

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                         6,340         15,545         10,912
  Short/Current Long Term Debt                 0              0              0
  Other Current Liabilities                    0              0              0
  Total Current Liabilities                6,340         15,545         10,912

  Long Term Debt                               0              0              0
  Other Liabilities                            0              0              0
  Deferred LT Liability Charges                0              0              0
  Minority Interest                            0              0              0
  Negative Goodwill                            0              0              0
  Total Liabilities                        6,340         15,545         10,912

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Stocks Options Warrants                0              0              0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock                   0              0              0
  Preferred Stock                            500            500            500
  Common Stock                                48             52             50
  Retained Earnings                        4,607         -5,597        -11,074
  Treasury Stock                               0              0              0
  Capital Surplus                         37,649         43,312         41,453
  Other Stockholder Equity                     0              0              0
  Total Stockholder Equity                42,805         38,266         30,929
  Net Tangible Assets                     39,033         34,092         28,937


Quarterly Balance Sheets:                               All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                 30-Sep-09    30-Jun-09    31-Mar-09    31-Dec-08
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents          5,163        3,756        2,494        2,701
  Short Term Investments           32,030       25,946       32,401       33,641
  Net Receivables                   1,312       10,793        8,052        3,372
  Inventory                           181          176          267          316
  Other Current Assets                752        1,051          773          837
  Total Current Assets             39,438       41,722       43,987       40,867

  Long-Term Investments                 0            0            0            0
  Property, Plant & Equipt         1,624        1,249        1,255        1,336
  Goodwill                          4,362        2,587        2,587        2,587
  Intangible Assets                 1,027        1,020        1,102        1,184
  Accumulated Amortization              0            0            0            0
  Other Assets                      2,188        2,177        2,190        2,189
  Deferred LT Asset Charges             0            0            0            0
  Total Assets                     49,799       49,868       52,152       49,144

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                  6,893        4,141        7,273        6,340
  Current Portion LT Debt             318            0            0            0
  Other Current Liabilities             0            0            0            0
  Total Current Liabilities         7,211        4,141        7,273        6,340

  Long Term Debt                      557            0            0            0
  Other Liabilities                     0            0            0            0
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges             0            0            0            0
  Minority Interest                     0            0            0            0
  Negative Goodwill                     0            0            0            0
  Total Liabilities                 7,768        4,141        7,273        6,340

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, WarrantS               0            0            0            0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock            0            0            0            0
  Preferred Stock                     500          500          500          500
  Common Stock                         43           46           47           48
  Retained Earnings                14,220       11,794        8,642        4,607
  Treasury Stock                        0            0            0            0
  Capital Surplus                  27,268       33,388       35,690       37,649
  Other Stockholder Equity              0            0            0            0
  Total Stockholder Equity         42,031       45,727       44,879       42,805
  Net Tangible Assets              36,641       42,120       41,189       39,033


Annual Cash Flow:                                    All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                       31-Dec-08      31-Dec-07      31-Dec-06

  Net Income                             10,204          3,152            473
Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                            1,098            952            554
  Adjustments to Net Income              -1,464          4,108          2,722
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls            1,277           -901         -1,202
  Changes in Liabilities                 -3,751          5,388          7,520
  Changes in Inventories                   -120             89            -83
  Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's           -640            452           -834
  Total Cash Flow fr Operations           6,607         16,001          9,150

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                     -396           -746         -1,929
  Investments                           -33,545              0            -61
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing          -1,331           -591              0
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing         -35,273         -1,337         -1,991

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                              0              0              0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock              -7,322            507            137
  Net Borrowings                           -253           -125              0
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing             261            526            240
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing          -7,315            908            377

  Effect of Exchange Rate Change              0              0              0
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s         -35,981         15,572          7,537


Quarterly Cash Flow:                                   All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                   30-Sep-09   30-Jun-09   31-Mar-09   31-Dec-08

  Net Income                          2,426       3,152       4,034       2,570

Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                          218         222         220         223
  Adjustments to Net Income             251        -955         236         642
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls        6,303      -6,908         178         -67
  Changes in Liabilities              5,941      -2,687         934      -3,513
  Changes in Inventories                 -5          92          48        -101
  Changes in Other Oper'g Acts          283       4,566      -4,771          31
  Total Cash Flow f Operations       15,417      -2,518         881        -215

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                 -494        -126         -57         -35
  Investments                        -6,070       6,535       1,211     -33,545
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing      -1,000           0           0         -10
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing      -7,564       6,408       1,154     -33,590

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                          0           0           0           0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock          -6,446      -2,627      -2,242      -7,575
  Net Borrowings                          0           0           0        -253
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing           0           0           0          49
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing           0           0           0           0

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg             0           0           0           0
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.        1,407       1,262        -207           0


MDF    Metropolitan Health Networks Inc.  [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
                                          or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28?    3.0000       P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate: -0.9500       Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    3.0000

Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   3.0000       Inventory/Sales < 5%?      3.0000
Sales < $1 billion?        3.0000       Operating Margin < 7.5%?   1.3489

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        1.0000       Long-Term Debt Service:    3.0000
LTD Being Reduced?         0.0000       Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         2.7345       Working Capital >= 1.5?    0.3657
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      3.0000       Debt / Assets < 1?         1.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           0.8979       Inventory Turnover > 1?    0.0387
Shares Out Decreasing?     1.8000       Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion?  3.0000
                                        Profit Margin > 7.5%?      0.4693
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000       EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0000
Enterprise Value/Revenue:  0.1067       EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%?     1.8000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   0.3923       EPS Growth Consistent?     1.8000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?   -3.0000       Collection < 45 days?      3.0000
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%?   1.7400       Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1?    3.0000
EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0000       Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%?   1.0000

Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          3.0000       % Held by Insiders  < 5%?  0.1448
Beta > 1.25?               0.6640       % Held by Institut. < 50?  1.8657
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?     -0.0279       % Held by Institut. > 30?  0.8933
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  2.1301       Short Ratio > 5?           1.0800
Price/Book Value < 3?      1.7700       Short % of Float > 20?     0.1250
Return on Assets > 17%?    1.3512       Average Volume > 100,000?  1.4783

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  1.1319       Positive Free Cash Flow?   1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  1.0000       Price to C.F./sh. Ratio:   0.5429
                                        Cash Flow / Assets >.10?   2.4057

MDF     Metropolitan Health Networks    Overall Zenith Index:      1.3773


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Institutional Orders to Buy or Sell:

Ownership:

institutions 1 institutions 2 institutions 3 institutions 4 institutions 4 institutions 4



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sentiment

Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.

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As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for Metropolitan Health Networks Inc.:
Symbol? MDF
Total Months Available:  62
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
   2.00    1.06      2.50    1.85      2.45    1.85

RANGE   =   2.50  TO    1.06            Close =   2.15
CHANNEL =   2.00  TO    1.85           Degree =   1
Volatility =   6.98%                    Index =   0
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"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

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The "ultimate systems" are inconclusive, giving no clear confirmed signals.

The corresponding trades for the above chart are shown in tabular form below.



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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison + 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index + 1
GAAP vs. non-GAAP Earnings < 1%+ 1
Cash Flow + 1
Ratios + 1
Market Grader + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Intrinsic Value DDM 0
Stock Scout - 1
Projected Earnings - 1
Research Reports 0
Analysts - 1
Executive Perquisites + 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's 0
Moving Average - 1
Right Time Study + 1
Stock Fetcher 0
Point & Figure - 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart - 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network - 1
Stock Options - 1
Ultimate Trading Systems 0
Total + 2
Place 13,700 shares of Metropolitan Healthcare Networks Inc. (MDF) on the Active List.