11-24-2009: Linn Energy, LLC (LINE): Very High Dividend

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Recommendation

Linn Energy, LLC

At the time of this writing, we have one other energy stock, Breitburn Energy, which has oil fields in the Los Angeles area. One would think this area had been pretty well played out by now, but with modern recovery methods, many fields are still producing. Both companies seem to be doing well with domestic exploration.

We have been looking of late at Microsoft MSN recommendations of which this is one. That is why "Stock Scout" gives it a "10" as the Money.MSN network screening lands on this company. The MSN selections often seem to go counter to major researchers and are better at spotting turnaround situations. Researchers do not like this stock, which may be a reason why it is overlooked.

CEO Michael C. Linn was active in other organizations such as Meridian Exploration Corp. before founding Linn Energy in 2003 and going public in 2006. His initial focus was on the Appalachia Basin.

The company has good corporate governance in our opinion. We would particularly direct your attention to the current hefty dividend. In news items this is often described somewhat uniquely as "cash disbursements" which are regularly approved. Those who held the stock on November 4th this year will receive a 10.30% dividend. But this does not mean the stock is not imminently tradeable, as the volatility is sufficient for day trading.

This company is described as having "poor growth" by some, but the valuation is there. This might seem surprising in view of the very long list of competitors in the same domestic oil exploration group. The valuation is a testimony to the management.

This is a company which is very focused and buys mature fields. The key indicator it watches is not "growth" but rather "reserves."



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Linn Energy, LLC                 (LINE )    Sector: Basic Materials
JPMorgan Chase Tower             Industry: Independent Oil & Gas
600 Travis Suite 5100            Exchange: Nasdaq
Houston, TX

Linn Energy, LLC, through its subsidiaries, engages in the
development and acquisition of gas and oil properties in the United
States. The company has oil and gas, and natural gas reserves in
Mid-Continent, which includes the Texas Panhandle operating area;
and Western region comprising the Brea Olinda field of the Los
Angeles Basin in California. As of December 31, 2007 the company had
proved reserves of 1,945.5 billion cubic feet equivalent of oil and
gas, and natural gas liquids. It also operated 7,305 gross
productive wells. The company was founded in 2003 and is
headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Last Trade:  24.53                     52-Week Range:  25.49 -  10.81
Trade Date:  11-23                     Avg. Volume:  1,334,390 Shares
Index Membership: N/A                              Employees:     505

Corporate Governance:

     EPS:   5.65     Dividend Amount: $  2.52       Yield:        10.30%
                    Ex-Dividend Date: 04-Nov-09   Mkt Cap: $  3,190,000K
                        Payout Ratio: 43.00%

     Last Split Factor (new for old): N/A      Split Date: N/A

Key Statistics:

Enterprise Value: $  4,910,000K           Revenue (ttm)  : $    366,980K
                                             Gross Profit: $  1,280,000K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $    771,100K

Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm): 13.38           Revenue per Share: $    3.16
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm):   6.37       Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y):-57.50%


P/E Ratio (fwd projected): 12.39      P/E Ratio (current):   4.34

P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected):  5.74  Operating Margin:  155.56%
               Price/Sales Ratio:  8.67     Profit Margin:  178.68%
                Price/Book Value:  1.23        Book Value: $ 19.90/sh.

Return on Assets:   8.36%        Net Income Avl to Common: $   658,180K
Return on Equity:  30.14%          Diluted Earnings/Share:     $  5.65
                              Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):        0.00%

Balance Sheet Items :                   Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr)                      (trailing 12 mo.)

       Total Cash: $     10,600K        Operating Cash Flow:$    466,850K
       Total Debt: $  1,740,000K        Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$     54,790K
Total Debt/Equity:         0.00
 Total Cash/Share:      $  0.08
    Current Ratio:         2.05

Share Statistics:                       Stock Price History:

    Shares Outstanding:  129,920K       Stk 52-Week Change:  95.45%
                 Float:  115,910K       S&P 500 52-Wk Chng:  29.87%
  Sh. Short % of Float:     2.90%        50-Day Moving Avg:  24.31
           Short Ratio:     1.60        200-Day Moving Avg:  21.44
% Held by Institutions:    21.30%                     Beta:   0.65
    % Held by Insiders:     2.37%

Analysts' Estimates:               Cur. Qtr   Next Qtr  Cur. Year  Next Year
___________________________          Dec-09     Mar-10     Dec-09     Dec-10

  Average Earnings Estimate           0.38       0.44       0.61       1.98
  Average Revenue  Estimate           204M       219M       860M       874M

Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):

Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr): 0.000          EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY): 0.000
  PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected): 0.055                 P/E Ratio (ttm): 0.006
      Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY): -.657


Annual Income Statements:                          All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          31-Dec-08    31-Dec-07    31-Dec-06

  Total Revenue                          1,435,031            0      191,058
  Cost of Revenue                          151,672       12,596       22,961
  Gross Profit                           1,283,359      -12,596      168,097

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                         0            0            0
  Selling, General & Administrative        138,826      145,715       39,993
  Non-Recurring Expenses                   -48,258        3,231            0
  Other Operating Expenses                 195,529      105,201       24,173
  Total Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Operating Income or Loss                 997,262     -266,743      103,931

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net          -74,376      -31,903       -2,654
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes         922,886     -298,646      101,277
  Interest Expense                          94,517       62,130       25,494
  Income Before Taxes                      828,369     -360,776       75,783
  Income Tax Expense                         2,712        3,573       -3,402
  Minority Interest                              0            0            0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s          825,657     -364,349       79,185

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                  173,959            0            0
  Extraordinary Items                            0            0            0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                   0            0            0
  Other Items                                    0            0            0
  Net Income                               999,616     -364,349       79,185

  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts            0            0            0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shares        999,616     -364,349       79,185


Quarterly Income Statements:                           All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                    30-Sep-09   31-Mar-09   31-Dec-08   30-Jun-08

  Total Revenue                       18,965     242,661   1,043,981     238,660
  Cost of Revenue                     36,154      38,604     141,934           0
  Gross Profit                       -17,189     204,057     902,047     238,660
Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                   0           0           0           0
  Selling, General & Adminis.         25,620      30,868     -59,474      57,563
  Non-Recurring Expenses              31,841     -26,711     -48,258       2,475
  Other Operating Expenses           -22,020      52,104      47,883     914,817
  Total Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Operating Income or Loss           -52,630     147,796     961,896    -736,195

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net    -87,274     -11,964     -48,859      27,291
  Earnings Before Int. & Taxes      -120,075     135,832     913,037    -708,904
  Interest Expense                   -37,671      14,409      23,318      16,241
  Income Before Taxes                -82,404     121,423     889,719    -725,145
  Income Tax Expense                      58         136       1,665        -164
  Minority Interest                        0           0           0           0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s    -82,462     121,287     888,054    -724,981

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations             -1,247      -1,886         452      12,839
  Extraordinary Items                      0           0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes             0           0           0           0
  Other Items                              0           0           0           0
  Net Income                         -83,709     119,401     888,506    -712,142

  Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s            0           0           0           0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shs     -83,709     119,401     888,506    -712,142


Annual Balance Sheets:                                All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                        31-Dec-08      31-Dec-07      31-Dec-06
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                 28,668          1,441          6,595
  Short Term Investments                 368,951         26,100         37,817
  Net Receivables                        144,882        138,716         22,468
  Inventory                                    0          2,350            578
  Other Current Assets                    21,430          3,418          2,218
  Total Current Assets                   563,931        172,025         69,676

  Long-Term Investments                  493,705              0         70,435
  Property, Plant & Equipt             3,650,666      3,523,500        754,043
  Goodwill                                     0         64,419              0
  Intangible Assets                            0              0              0
  Accumulated Amortization                     0              0              0
  Other Assets                            13,718         36,625         20,086
  Deferred Long Term Asset Charges             0              0          2,068
  Total Assets                         4,722,020      3,796,569        916,308

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                       190,825        218,304         14,843
  Short/Current Long Term Debt            47,005          6,148          1,335
  Other Current Liabilities                    0          7,141          1,839
  Total Current Liabilities              237,830        231,593         18,017

  Long Term Debt                       1,692,918      1,506,813        438,171
  Other Liabilities                       30,586         31,522          9,166
  Deferred LT Liability Charges                0              0              0
  Minority Interest                            0              0              0
  Negative Goodwill                            0              0              0
  Total Liabilities                    1,961,334      1,769,928        465,354

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Stocks Options Warrants                0              0              0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock                   0              0              0
  Preferred Stock                              0              0              0
  Common Stock                         2,109,089      2,374,660              0
  Retained Earnings                      651,597              0         16,330
  Treasury Stock                               0              0              0
  Capital Surplus                              0              0              0
  Other Stockholder Equity                     0       -348,019        434,624
  Total Stockholder Equity             2,760,686      2,026,641        450,954
  Net Tangible Assets                  2,760,686      1,962,222        450,954


Quarterly Balance Sheets:                               All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                 30-Sep-09    31-Mar-09    31-Dec-08    30-Jun-08
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents         10,595       22,893       28,668        9,612
  Short Term Investments                0      428,638      368,951            0
  Net Receivables                  98,150      110,561      144,882      274,645
  Inventory                             0            0            0            0
  Other Current Assets            313,532       47,142       21,430       11,891
  Total Current Assets            422,277      609,234      563,931      296,148

  Long-Term Investments           213,130      480,067      493,705            0
  Property, Plant & Equipt     3,739,077    3,670,667    3,650,666    4,191,191
  Goodwill                              0            0            0       69,674
  Intangible Assets                     0            0            0            0
  Accumulated Amortization              0            0            0            0
  Other Assets                     64,679       12,950       13,718       17,414
  Deferred LT Asset Charges             0            0            0       73,890
  Total Assets                  4,439,163    4,772,918    4,722,020    4,574,427

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                157,570      160,173      190,825      197,786
  Current Portion LT Debt          48,042       35,724       47,005      354,765
  Other Current Liabilities             0            0            0            0
  Total Current Liabilities       205,612      195,897      237,830      626,441

  Long Term Debt                1,739,492    1,734,282    1,692,918    2,970,525
  Other Liabilities                35,613       33,352       30,586       37,383
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges        44,945            0            0            0
  Minority Interest                     0            0            0            0
  Negative Goodwill                     0            0            0            0
  Total Liabilities             2,025,662    1,963,531    1,961,334    3,634,349

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, WarrantS               0            0            0            0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock            0            0            0            0
  Preferred Stock                       0            0            0            0
  Common Stock                          0            0    2,109,089            0
  Retained Earnings                     0            0      651,597            0
  Treasury Stock                        0            0            0            0
  Capital Surplus                       0            0            0            0
  Other Stockholder Equity      2,413,501    2,809,387            0      940,078
  Total Stockholder Equity              0    2,809,387    2,760,686      940,078
  Net Tangible Assets                   0    2,809,387    2,760,686      870,404


Annual Cash Flow:                                    All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                       31-Dec-08      31-Dec-07      31-Dec-06

  Net Income                            999,616        119,401         79,185
Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                          217,330        104,120         29,035
  Adjustments to Net Income          -1,018,077        152,370       -114,546
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls            3,673       -106,227           -371
  Changes in Liabilities                -20,471        165,986         -2,941
  Changes in Inventories                      0          3,286          2,833
  Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's              0              0              0
  Total Cash Flow fr Operations         179,515        -44,814         -6,805

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                 -933,136     -2,869,348       -531,651
  Investments                                 0              0              0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing               0              0              0
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing         -35,550     -2,892,420       -551,631

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                       -289,915       -154,963        -32,056
  Sale or Purchase of Stock             -14,998      2,078,267        432,490
  Net Borrowings                        188,175      1,008,776        153,556
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing               0              0              0
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing        -116,738      2,932,080              0

  Effect of Exchange Rate Change              0              0              0
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s          27,227         -5,154         -4,446


Quarterly Cash Flow:                                   All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                   30-Sep-09   31-Mar-09   31-Dec-08   30-Jun-08

  Net Income                        -83,709     119,401     888,506    -712,142

Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                       55,348      54,591      52,460      57,039
  Adjustments to Net Income          83,449     -61,417    -898,738     748,375
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls        3,451      42,371     103,121           0
  Changes in Liabilities             16,585     -39,826      -9,887     -19,403
  Changes in Inventories                  0           0           0           0
  Changes in Other Oper'g Acts       -3,274     -20,150       1,265      -6,212
  Total Cash Flow f Operations       71,850      94,970     136,727        -617

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures             -144,616     -70,751    -104,898    -136,149
  Investments                             0           0           0           0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing          33      11,934     153,453      76,560
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing    -144,583     -58,817      48,555     -59,589

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                    144,994     -72,538     -72,584     -72,566
  Sale or Purchase of Stock               0      -2,465     -13,017        -191
  Net Borrowings                    132,664      33,075    -118,282     141,499
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing    -221,430           0           0           0
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing      56,228     -41,928    -203,883      68,742

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg             0           0           0           0
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.            0           0           0           0


LINE   Linn Energy, LLC                   [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
                                          or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28?    3.0000       P/E Ratio > 5?             0.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  3.0000       Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    2.2599

Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   0.2653       Inventory/Sales < 5%?      1.0000
Sales < $1 billion?        0.6968       Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.0482

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        1.0000       Long-Term Debt Service:    1.6307
LTD Being Reduced?         0.6000       Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         1.0270       Working Capital >= 1.5?    0.9738
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.5328       Debt / Assets < 1?         2.7893
Quick Ratio > 1?           0.5289       Inventory Turnover > 1?    1.0000
Shares Out Decreasing?     1.2000       Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion?  0.4702
                                        Profit Margin > 7.5%?      3.0000
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.5825       EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0000
Enterprise Value/Revenue:  3.0000       EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%?     0.1600
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   0.9097       EPS Growth Consistent?     1.2000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0000       Collection < 45 days?      1.2211
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%?  -3.0000       Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1?    3.0000
EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0000       Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%?   3.0000

Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          3.0000       % Held by Insiders  < 5%?  2.1097
Beta > 1.25?               0.5200       % Held by Institut. < 50?  2.3474
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.3510       % Held by Institut. > 30?  0.7100
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  1.9914       Short Ratio > 5?           0.3200
Price/Book Value < 3?      2.7700       Short % of Float > 20?     0.1450
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.4918       Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  3.0000       Positive Free Cash Flow?   1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  1.0000       Price to C.F./sh. Ratio:   3.0000
                                        Cash Flow / Assets >.10?   0.1234

LINE    Linn Energy, LLC                Overall Zenith Index:      1.3669


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The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for Linn Energy:
Symbol? LINE
Total Months Available:  46
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  16.70   10.81     21.27   14.50     25.49   20.91

RANGE   =  25.49  TO   10.81            Close =  24.49
CHANNEL =  20.91  TO   16.70           Degree =   3
Volatility =  17.19%                    Index =   5
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20 Days:

1 Day:

The following table details which MACD signals on the preceding chart are best taken.
Originally, this was set up for a two-day span, but ten days gives a better sample.
Unfortunately, with the 10-day span, the colored lines on the histogram are much
harder to read.  Both spans are shown above.  Red turning into green on the histogram
is a buy and green turning into red is a sell, but with the following conditions.  The
share price must have moved at least 0.2% away from the previous signal price in order
to avoid whipsawing.  More importantly, the +/- magnitude of the MACD (the blue line,
which crosses the red line at signal time) must be greater than the minimum required
magnitude indicated below.  Otherwise, the signal is ignored.

LINE   Minimum Magnitude MACD for Action = ± 0.0250

Ticker Day   Time     Hist.      MACD  Sig Line  Act    Price   Profit

LINE   12   08:05    0.0001   -0.0302   -0.0303   B     24.53     0.00
LINE   12   08:19   -0.0007   -0.0271   -0.0264   S     24.45    -0.32
LINE   12   09:06    0.0027   -0.0324   -0.0350   B     24.35     0.10
LINE   13   06:28    0.0118    0.0255    0.0137         24.60    -0.52
LINE   13   06:42   -0.0045    0.0370    0.0415   S     24.49    -0.52
LINE   13   07:24    0.0015   -0.0297   -0.0311   B     24.38    -0.07
LINE   13   09:41   -0.0009    0.0287    0.0296   S     24.58     0.75
LINE   16   05:05   -0.0027    0.0017    0.0044         24.50     1.24
LINE   16   07:03    0.0000    0.0291    0.0291   B     24.74     1.24
LINE   16   07:17   -0.0010    0.0312    0.0322   S     24.79     1.45
LINE   16   07:25    0.0003    0.0292    0.0289   B     24.84     1.24
LINE   16   10:57   -0.0020    0.0308    0.0328   S     24.94     1.65
LINE   16   12:51    0.0007   -0.0261   -0.0268   B     24.76     2.37
LINE   17   05:02    0.0090   -0.0034   -0.0124         24.80     2.93
LINE   17   09:42   -0.0015    0.0251    0.0265   S     24.73     2.93
LINE   18   06:30   -0.0033   -0.0017    0.0016         24.80     2.37
LINE   18   10:13    0.0006   -0.0260   -0.0266   B     24.61     2.37
LINE   18   06:30   -0.0033   -0.0017    0.0016         24.80     2.37
LINE   18   10:13    0.0006   -0.0260   -0.0266   B     24.61     2.37
LINE   19   06:30   -0.0057    0.0014    0.0071         24.60     3.73
LINE   20   11:11   -0.0001    0.0261    0.0262   S     24.34     3.73
LINE   23   05:03    0.0055    0.0286    0.0231         24.55     2.17
LINE   23   13:00   -0.0003   -0.0033   -0.0030         24.53     2.17


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The corresponding trades for the above chart are shown in tabular form below.



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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison - 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue + 1
Zenith Index + 1
GAAP vs. non-GAAP Earnings < 1%- 1
Cash Flow + 1
Ratios + 1
Market Grader - 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Intrinsic Value DDM 0
Stock Scout + 1
Projected Earnings - 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites + 1
Insider Activity 0
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest - 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
Moving Average - 1
Stock Fetcher 0
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer + 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network 0
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems - 1
Total + 5
Place 1,200 shares of Linn Energy LLC (LINE) on the Active List.