01-17-2012: Kronos Worldwide, Inc. (KRO): Meaningful Insider Buying

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Recommendation

Kronos Worldwide, Inc.

Kronos Worldwide Inc. (KRO) is a highly-focused almost "one product" specialty chemical company which makes Titanium Oxide products used primarily for pigments to color various products from paints to plastics to clothing. It even has food applications. The company may be based in Dallas, but it appears to have a heavy Norwegian influence. Our first reaction to reviewing it was concern over the absence of a Chairman's Letter or any sort of annual report to shareholders beyond the basic SEC requirements. This often indicates a company more concerned about its products than its shareholders.

The next thing we note is that the company has very strong fundamentals, as valued by the Zenith Index, and is liked by researchers.

News seems very sparse for this company, and the bulk of the items that exist concern a steadily incrementing round of price increases for the company's products worldwide, broken out by region, i.e. Western and Eastern Europe, Asia, Latin America, North America, and so on. These small increases are in the neighborhood of 5 cents per pound but occur quite frequently.

This company seems to have exceptional corporate governance despite the absense of the Chairman's Letter, and there is considerable insider buying by both the CEO and Chairman of the Board recently. You don't see that too often with American companies. Should one follow insiders into this stock? Chairman Harold Simmons has been buying the stock feverishly since Nov. 18th, buying 100,000 shares on that day and accumulating more than 450,000 shares since then, with a 10,000 share buy on Dec. 10th. These are not all stock option perqs. In fact stock option holdings by insiders, salaries, bonuses and perqs are quite modest in this compoany by any standard. KRO is trading at 7.5 times forward P/E, 0.4 X PEG, 5.6 X EV/EBITDA, and has a consistent 2.8% dividend yield. One might compare that to major competitor Huntsman Chemical (HUN) which is also a potential buy, at 5 times forward P/E, 0.8 X PEG, 5.5 X EV/EBITDA, and a consistent 4.0% dividend yield. (We didn't catch Huntsman in time before this review.)

KRO appears to be near the bottom of a range-trade channel.

In fact, this stock appears to be so strong that we should probably be taking a hard look at all those indicators going against the grain in our Decision Matrix at the end of this article as suspect in their reliability. Either they are unreliable or "heros." Most researchers seem to have been caught completely off guard on their suspect analyses as well.



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is consider strong and > 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Kronos Worldwide Inc.            (KRO  )    Sector: Basic Materials
5430 LBJ Freeway                 Industry: Specialty Chemicals
Suite 1700                       Exchange: NYSE
Dallas, TX 75240-2697

Kronos Worldwide, Inc. engages in the production and marketing of titanium
dioxide pigments primarily in North America and Europe. The titanium
dioxide pigments are used to impart whiteness, brightness, opacity, and
durability for products, such as coatings, plastics, and papers, as well
as various specialty products, such as inks, food, and cosmetics. The
company produces titanium dioxide pigments in two crystalline forms, such
as rutile and anatase under the Kronos brand name. It also offers
ilmenite, a raw material used directly as a feedstock by sulfate-process
titanium dioxide pigment plants; iron-based chemicals, which are
co-products and processed co-products of the titanium dioxide pigment
production process and used as treatment and conditioning agents for
industrial effluents and municipal wastewater, as well as in the
manufacture of iron pigments, cement, and agricultural products; and
titanium oxychloride and titanyl sulfate, which are side-stream products
from the production of titanium dioxide pigments. The company-Ęs titanium
oxychloride is used in the formulation of pearlescent pigments and
production of electroceramic capacitors for cell phones and other
electronic devices; and titanyl sulfate is used in pearlescent pigments,
natural gas pipe, and other specialty applications. In addition, it
provides technical services. The company serves paint, plastics, and paper
manufacturers. Kronos Worldwide, Inc. sells its products through
distributors and agents for approximately 4,000 customers in approximately
100 countries. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in
Dallas, Texas. Kronos Worldwide, Inc. is a subsidiary of Valhi, Inc.

Last Trade:  22.16                     52-Week Range:  34.50 -  14.16
Trade Date:  01-16                     Avg. Volume:    773,651 Shares
Index Membership:                                  Employees:   2,440

Corporate Governance:
    Audit (Low Concern), Board (Medium Concern),
    Compensation (Low Concern), Shareholder Rights (Low Concern).

     EPS:   2.38     Dividend Amount: $  0.60       Yield:         2.80%
                    Ex-Dividend Date: Dec 7, 201  Mkt Cap: $  2,520,000K
                        Payout Ratio: 44.00%

     Last Split Factor (new for old): 2:1      Split Date: May 23, 20

Key Statistics:

Enterprise Value: $  2,760,000K           Revenue (ttm)  : $  1,880,000K
                                             Gross Profit: $    345,300K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $    509,700K

Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm):  1.47           Revenue per Share: $   16.44
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm):   5.42       Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y): 45.50%


P/E Ratio (fwd projected):  7.14      P/E Ratio (current):   9.13

P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected):  0.41  Operating Margin:   24.61%
               Price/Sales Ratio:  1.37     Profit Margin:   14.46%
                Price/Book Value:  2.89        Book Value: $  7.67/sh.

Return on Assets:  18.61%        Net Income Avl to Common: $   271,700K
Return on Equity:  41.92%          Diluted Earnings/Share:     $  2.38
                              Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):      167.60%

Balance Sheet Items :                   Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr)                      (trailing 12 mo.)

       Total Cash: $    156,600K        Operating Cash Flow:$    301,700K
       Total Debt: $    402,900K        Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$    190,290K
Total Debt/Equity:        45.32
 Total Cash/Share:      $  1.35
    Current Ratio:         2.85

Share Statistics:                       Stock Price History:

    Shares Outstanding:  115,900K       Stk 52-Week Change:  -6.24%
                 Float:   21,030K       S&P 500 52-Wk Chng:  -0.46%
  Sh. Short % of Float:    18.70%        50-Day Moving Avg:  19.19
           Short Ratio:     6.30        200-Day Moving Avg:  21.96
% Held by Institutions:    16.10%                     Beta:   1.88
    % Held by Insiders:    81.29%

Analysts' Estimates:               Cur. Qtr   Next Qtr  Cur. Year  Next Year
___________________________          Dec 11     Mar 12     Dec 11     Dec 12

  Average Earnings Estimate           0.61       0.00       3.04       0.00
  Average Revenue  Estimate            66M       614M     1,980M     2,420M

Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):

Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr):  18.500      EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY):  24.667
  PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected): 357.574             P/E Ratio (ttm):  16.202
      Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY):   6.167


Annual Income Statements:                          All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          Dec31,2010   Dec31,2009   Dec31,2008

  Total Revenue                          1,449,700    1,142,000    1,316,900
  Cost of Revenue                        1,104,400    1,011,700    1,096,300
  Gross Profit                             345,300      130,300      220,600

Operating Expenses:  Research & Development                         0            0            0
  Selling, General & Administrative        166,900      146,000      174,000
  Non-Recurring Expenses                         0            0            0
  Other Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Total Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Operating Income or Loss                 178,400      -15,700       46,600

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net              700          200        1,600
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes         179,100      -15,500       48,200
  Interest Expense                          38,800       41,400       42,200
  Income Before Taxes                      140,300      -56,900        6,000
  Income Tax Expense                         9,700      -22,200       -3,000
  Minority Interest                              0            0            0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s          130,600      -34,700        9,000

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                        0            0            0
  Extraordinary Items                            0            0            0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                   0            0            0
  Other Items                                    0            0            0
  Net Income                               130,600      -34,700        9,000

  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts            0            0            0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shares        130,600      -34,700        9,000


Quarterly Income Statements:                           All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                   Sep30,2011  Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010

  Total Revenue                      548,000     537,500     420,400     373,300
  Cost of Revenue                    337,100     340,500     274,000     269,900
  Gross Profit                       210,900     197,000     146,400     103,400

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                   0           0           0           0
  Selling, General & Adminis.         52,400      55,100      44,000      37,700
  Non-Recurring Expenses                   0           0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Operating Income or Loss           156,600     144,200     102,400      60,900

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net       -700       4,000      -1,600      -4,200
  Earnings Before Int. & Taxes       157,800     145,900     100,800      61,500
  Interest Expense                     8,100       8,500       9,600       9,600
  Income Before Taxes                149,700     137,400      91,200      51,900
  Income Tax Expense                  63,800      48,400      30,900      15,400
  Minority Interest                        0           0           0           0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s     89,200      89,000      57,000      36,500

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                  0           0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                      0           0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes             0           0           0           0
  Other Items                              0           0           0           0
  Net Income                          85,900      89,000      60,300      36,500

  Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s            0           0           0           0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shs      85,900      89,000      60,300      36,500


Annual Balance Sheets:                                All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                       Dec31,2010     Dec31,2009     Dec31,2008
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                306,600         32,800         15,100
  Short Term Investments                       0              0              0
  Net Receivables                        235,800        193,300        182,700
  Inventory                              275,800        294,800        385,100
  Other Current Assets                     6,100          9,000          6,600
  Total Current Assets                   824,300        529,900        589,500

  Long-Term Investments                  207,800         98,700        109,100
  Property, Plant & Equipt               473,600        499,700        485,500
  Goodwill                                     0              0              0
  Intangible Assets                            0              0              0
  Accumulated Amortization                     0              0              0
  Other Assets                             9,900         11,200          1,100
  Deferred Long Term Asset Charges       192,000        185,500        173,500
  Total Assets                         1,707,600      1,325,000      1,358,700

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                       217,900        213,300        203,600
  Short/Current Long Term Debt             2,200          2,100            800
  Other Current Liabilities                    0              0              0
  Total Current Liabilities              220,100        215,400        204,400

  Long Term Debt                         537,400        611,100        637,700
  Other Liabilities                      155,700        154,900        163,000
  Deferred LT Liability Charges           33,200         31,100         35,700
  Minority Interest                            0              0              0
  Negative Goodwill                            0              0              0
  Total Liabilities                      946,400      1,012,500      1,040,800

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Stocks Options Warrants                0              0              0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock                   0              0              0
  Preferred Stock                              0              0              0
  Common Stock                               600            500            500
  Retained Earnings                     -486,500       -602,600       -567,900
  Treasury Stock                               0              0              0
  Capital Surplus                      1,399,400      1,061,900      1,061,800
  Other Stockholder Equity              -152,300       -147,300       -176,500
  Total Stockholder Equity               761,200        312,500        317,900
  Net Tangible Assets                    761,200        312,500        317,900


Quarterly Balance Sheets:                               All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                Sep30,2011   Jun30,2011   Mar31,2011   Dec31,2010
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents         113,600       74,000      127,700      306,600
  Short Term Investments           44,500       79,600      106,100            0
  Net Receivables                 338,200      362,500      348,000      235,800
  Inventory                       336,700      308,800      327,200      275,800
  Other Current Assets              7,400        4,800        6,900        6,100
  Total Current Assets            840,400      829,700      915,900      824,300

  Long-Term Investments           292,200      268,600      174,100      207,800
  Property, Plant & Equipt        478,800      498,100      490,600      473,600
  Goodwill                              0            0            0            0
  Intangible Assets                     0            0            0            0
  Accumulated Amortization              0            0            0            0
  Other Assets                     10,800       12,500        9,400        9,900
  Deferred LT Asset Charges       154,500      177,800      192,200      192,000
  Total Assets                  1,776,700    1,786,700    1,782,200    1,707,600

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                292,600      223,700      248,400      217,900
  Current Portion LT Debt           2,200        2,300        2,200        2,200
  Other Current Liabilities             0            0            0            0
  Total Current Liabilities       294,800      226,000      250,600      220,100

  Long Term Debt                  400,700      509,400      567,600      537,400
  Other Liabilities               152,600      160,400      159,600      155,700
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges        39,600       43,200       37,100       33,200
  Minority Interest                     0            0            0            0
  Negative Goodwill                     0            0            0            0
  Total Liabilities               887,700      939,000    1,014,900      946,400

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, WarrantS               0            0            0            0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock            0            0            0            0
  Preferred Stock                       0            0            0            0
  Common Stock                      1,200        1,200          600          600
  Retained Earnings              -358,500     -427,000     -498,600     -486,500
  Treasury Stock                        0            0            0            0
  Capital Surplus               1,399,000    1,399,000    1,399,400    1,399,400
  Other Stockholder Equity       -152,700     -125,500     -134,100     -152,300
  Total Stockholder Equity        889,000      847,700      767,300      761,200
  Net Tangible Assets             889,000      847,700      767,300      761,200


Annual Cash Flow:                                    All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                      Dec31,2010     Dec31,2009     Dec31,2008

  Net Income                            130,600         89,000          9,000
Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                           44,700         47,000         51,300
  Adjustments to Net Income             -17,300        -10,100        -10,400
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls          -52,400         -5,600         20,000
  Changes in Liabilities                 11,000         -8,900         26,500
  Changes in Inventories                  7,100         99,400        -93,900
  Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's              0           -800            200
  Total Cash Flow fr Operations         126,000         86,300          2,700

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                  -37,700        -23,700        -68,100
  Investments                            52,900              0              0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing               0              0              0
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing        -145,800        -23,700        -68,100

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                        -14,500              0        -49,000
  Sale or Purchase of Stock             337,600              0              0
  Net Borrowings                        -27,200        -49,200         59,300
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing               0              0              0
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing         295,100        -49,800         10,300

  Effect of Exchange Rate Change         -1,700          4,700         -3,500
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s         275,300         12,800        -58,600


Quarterly Cash Flow:                                   All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                  Sep30,2011  Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010

  Net Income                         85,900      89,000      60,300      36,500

Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                       12,100      12,200      11,600      11,300
  Adjustments to Net Income          22,600      23,000      10,400      -2,800
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls       15,700     -63,300     -55,700      27,900
  Changes in Liabilities             72,500     -25,900      33,800       8,300
  Changes in Inventories            -42,800      20,600     -37,600     -23,300
  Changes in Other Oper'g Acts            0       3,400      -1,600         400
  Total Cash Flow f Operations      163,200      59,000      21,200      58,300

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures              -14,100     -11,300     -13,300     -13,300
  Investments                        63,100      31,600     -78,300      52,900
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing           0           0           0     -50,200
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing     -14,400     -29,900    -129,200    -121,900

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                    -17,400     -17,400     -72,400     -14,500
  Sale or Purchase of Stock               0           0           0           0
  Net Borrowings                    -89,700     -65,700        -500     -99,700
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing        -100           0        -100           0
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing    -107,200     -83,100     -73,000     321,800

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg             0           0           0        -200
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.       41,600     -54,000    -181,000     258,200


KRO    Kronos Worldwide Inc.              [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
                                          or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28?    3.0000       P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate: -0.7700       Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    3.0000

Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   1.6788       Inventory/Sales < 5%?      0.2628
Sales < $1 billion?        0.6898       Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.3048

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.0088       Long-Term Debt Service:    1.4164
LTD Being Reduced?         2.4000       Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         1.4250       Working Capital >= 1.5?    0.7016
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.8151       Debt / Assets < 1?         3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           1.5326       Inventory Turnover > 1?    3.0000
Shares Out Decreasing?     0.0000       Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion?  0.5952
                                        Profit Margin > 7.5%?      1.9280
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     2.1429       EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   3.0000
Enterprise Value/Revenue:  0.9800       EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%?     3.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   0.7743       EPS Growth Consistent?     1.8000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    3.0000       Collection < 45 days?      0.7580
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%?   3.0000       Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1?    3.0000
EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   3.0000       Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%?   1.2001

Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          3.0000       % Held by Insiders  < 5%?  0.0615
Beta > 1.25?               1.5040       % Held by Institut. < 50?  3.0000
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?     -0.3750       % Held by Institut. > 30?  0.5367
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500: -0.0307       Short Ratio > 5?           1.2600
Price/Book Value < 3?      1.1100       Short % of Float > 20?     0.9350
Return on Assets > 17%?    1.0947       Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  1.5855       Positive Free Cash Flow?   1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  1.0000       Price to C.F./sh. Ratio:   0.9459
                                        Cash Flow / Assets >.10?   1.0710

KRO     Kronos Worldwide Inc.           Overall Zenith Index:      1.5376


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Income Statement:

Balance Sheet:

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Intrinsic Value by Discounted Cash Flow Method:

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Intrinsic Value by Projected Earnings Growth Method:

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We find "Scout" to be a bit biased toward the high end, so anything under a 6 is considered a negative, 6 and above, positive.




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Institutional Orders to Buy or Sell:

Ownership:

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Sentiment

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Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.

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As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for Kronos Worldwide Inc.:
Symbol? KRO
Total Months Available:  97
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  33.00   21.07     34.50   19.11     23.88   14.16

RANGE   =  34.50  TO   14.16            Close =  22.16
CHANNEL =  23.88  TO   21.07           Degree =   1
Volatility =  12.70%                    Index =   1
Channel Chart


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"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

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Ultimate Trading Systems

The "ultimate systems" are inconclusive, giving no clear confirmed signals.

The corresponding trades for the above chart are shown in tabular form below.



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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison + 1
Industry + 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index + 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings < 1%+ 1
Cash Flow + 1
Ratios + 1
Market Grader + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Intrinsic Value DDM + 1
Stock Scout - 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites + 1
Insider Activity + 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest - 1
Sentiment - 1
Standard & Poor's + 1
Moving Average + 1
Right Time Study + 1
Stock Fetcher + 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network 0
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems 0
Total + 17
Place 1,390 shares of Kronos Worldwide, Inc. (KRO) on the Active List.