01-28-2010: Interactive Data Corporation (IDC): Buyout Rumors Cause Quantum Share Price Jump

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Interactive Data Corporation

At the time of this writing, the market has been down for five straight days, and the Dow appears perilously close to crossing back into the 9000's. This leads many to believe "all the money" is now in the markets, and from here on in it will be either flat or back into bear mode. As Zenith lately has tried to pick "buy" stocks, they become harder and harder to find on a technical basis. By relaxing our "rule" to try to pick stocks with an average daily volume of greater than 300,000 shares, we have a better chance of finding "overlooked" stocks. They don't make as liquid trading stocks, but relaxing the daily volume to 200,000 shares as in this case, helps us to find the better values. A stock fitting into this category is Interactive Data Corporation (IDC).

IDC has some interesting things going on as indicated by a recent 20% jump in price in one day in mid-January, which is what brought it to our attention. While the company has a steady stream of public relations news releases about new products, upgrades, and acquisitions, its owners would still like to unload it, and they have made their wishes known. Pearson PLC, a British company that publishes Penguin Books, which controls IDC as the largest stockholder, wants to sell its $1.5 billion stake in Interactive Data Corporation. Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, and McGraw Hill are all interested in a friendly takeover, and could start a bidding war.

Interactive Data markets data services under some very well-known names, upon some of which we rely, from ESignal, Quotrek, Quote.Com, Futuresource, Marketwatch.Com, Data Broadcasting, and many others. We found ESignal one of the cheapest and most reliable data sources save for the fact that they do not market ASCII end-of-day and historical data files without what we regard as excessive charges and the need for third-party software. Thus ESignal is more of a "standalone" service, at least in our opinion, although it does interface with some popular trader software applications. For us, it has been "useless," but for many others it is "the source."

To that effect, IDC "partners" with many other service providers on the internet, especially discount brokers. The business seems relatively secure and stable even in hard economic times, and might be considered a "defensive stock" paying a substantial dividend of around 2.4%. The company has no long-term debt.

IDC had its origins in the bankrupt Financial News Network (FNN), a cable outlet company.

Because we believe too many stock options were supplied to a couple of executives, we give the company a negative on corporate governance.

The company is liked by three of our favorite researchers, Market Grader, Street.Com, and Jefferson. Still, it came out with a marginal score in our decision matrix, just slightly biased to the buy side. One of the reasons is that this company has been operating in a trading range (see "Channel" section) for quite a long period of time, and recently broke out of that channel to the upside. Usually, in such situations, we find that there is strong tendency to pull back into the channel, and our friend Jim Cramer warns to stay clear of buyout rumors if you want to avoid undue risk.



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Interactive Data Corporation     (IDC  )    Sector: Technology
32 Crosby Drive                  Industry: Information & Delivery Servic
Bedford, MA 01730-1402           Exchange: NYSE

Interactive Data Corporation provides financial market data,
analytics, and related services to financial institutions, active
traders, and individual investors worldwide. The company-Ęs offerings
enable customers to support their portfolio management and
valuation, research and analysis, trading, sales and marketing, and
client service activities. The company operates in two segments,
Institutional Services and Active Trader Services. The Institutional
Services segment offers interactive data pricing and reference data;
interactive data real-time services; and interactive data fixed
income analytics. This segment primarily targets financial
institutions, such as banks, brokerage firms, mutual fund companies,
hedge funds, insurance companies, and money management firms, as
well as financial information providers, information media
companies, third-party redistributors, and outsourcing
organizations. The Active Trader Services segment involves in
eSignal business, which provides active traders, individual
investors, and investment community professionals with real-time
financial market information and access to decision-support tools to
assist in their analysis of securities traded on various markets.
This segment primarily targets active traders, individual investors,
and investment community professionals. Interactive Data Corporation
markets and licenses its services either by direct subscriptions or
through third-party business alliances. The company was founded in
1992 and is headquartered in Bedford, Massachusetts. Interactive
Data Corporation is a subsidiary of Pearson plc.

Last Trade:  29.05                     52-Week Range:  29.41 -  20.19
Trade Date:  01-27                     Avg. Volume:    189,586 Shares
Index Membership: N/A                              Employees:   2,400

Corporate Governance:
Interactive Data Corporation's Corporate Governance Quotient (CGQ-«)
as of 3-Jan-10 is better than 57.3% of Russell 3000 companies and
71.3% of Media companies.

     EPS:   1.55     Dividend Amount: $  0.80       Yield:         2.80%
                    Ex-Dividend Date: 04-Dec-09   Mkt Cap: $  2,740,000K
                        Payout Ratio: 49.00%

     Last Split Factor (new for old): N/A      Split Date: N/A

Key Statistics:

Enterprise Value: $  2,410,000K           Revenue (ttm)  : $    757,210K
                                             Gross Profit: $    508,660K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $    270,190K

Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm):  3.19           Revenue per Share: $    8.07
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm):   8.93       Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y):  1.90%


P/E Ratio (fwd projected): 19.53      P/E Ratio (current):  18.83

P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected):  1.99  Operating Margin:   28.32%
               Price/Sales Ratio:  3.57     Profit Margin:   19.58%
                Price/Book Value:  2.53        Book Value: $ 11.34/sh.

Return on Assets:  10.93%        Net Income Avl to Common: $   148,290K
Return on Equity:  14.48%          Diluted Earnings/Share:     $  1.55
                              Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):       17.50%

Balance Sheet Items :                   Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr)                      (trailing 12 mo.)

       Total Cash: $    290,230K        Operating Cash Flow:$    196,080K
       Total Debt: $          0K        Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$    114,370K
Total Debt/Equity:         0.00
 Total Cash/Share:      $  3.08
    Current Ratio:         3.23

Share Statistics:                       Stock Price History:

    Shares Outstanding:   94,280K       Stk 52-Week Change:  22.90%
                 Float:   36,290K       S&P 500 52-Wk Chng:  29.14%
  Sh. Short % of Float:     0.90%        50-Day Moving Avg:  26.14
           Short Ratio:     2.30        200-Day Moving Avg:  25.15
% Held by Institutions:    35.80%                     Beta:   0.54
    % Held by Insiders:    61.68%

Analysts' Estimates:               Cur. Qtr   Next Qtr  Cur. Year  Next Year
___________________________          Dec-09     Mar-10     Dec-09     Dec-10

  Average Earnings Estimate           0.37       0.34       1.45       1.49
  Average Revenue  Estimate           190M       191M       753M       787M

Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):

Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr): 0.000          EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY): 0.511
  PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected): 0.000                 P/E Ratio (ttm): 0.710
      Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY): 0.000


Annual Income Statements:                          All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          31-Dec-08    31-Dec-07    31-Dec-06

  Total Revenue                            750,541      689,610      612,403
  Cost of Revenue                          241,880      223,987      198,538
  Gross Profit                             508,661      465,623      413,865

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                         0            0            0
  Selling, General & Administrative        244,248      240,520      221,787
  Non-Recurring Expenses                         0            0            0
  Other Operating Expenses                  54,730       49,483       47,513
  Total Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Operating Income or Loss                 209,683      175,620      144,565

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net            7,568        9,025        6,366
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes         217,251      184,645      150,931
  Interest Expense                               0            0            0
  Income Before Taxes                      217,251      184,645      150,931
  Income Tax Expense                        74,582       58,662       57,569
  Minority Interest                            -21            0            0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s          142,648      125,983       93,362

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                        0            0            0
  Extraordinary Items                            0            0            0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                   0            0            0
  Other Items                                    0            0            0
  Net Income                               142,648      125,983       93,362

  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts            0            0            0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shares        142,648      125,983       93,362


Quarterly Income Statements:                           All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                    30-Sep-09   30-Jun-09   31-Mar-09   31-Dec-08

  Total Revenue                      192,092     184,992     186,034     194,092
  Cost of Revenue                     60,347      66,404      60,425      59,901
  Gross Profit                       131,745     118,588     125,609     134,191

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                   0           0           0           0
  Selling, General & Adminis.         57,387      52,884      62,647      63,147
  Non-Recurring Expenses                   0           0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses            15,927      15,120      14,630      13,953
  Total Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Operating Income or Loss            58,431      50,584      48,332      57,091

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net        335         514         646       1,360
  Earnings Before Int. & Taxes        58,766      51,098      48,978      58,451
  Interest Expense                         0           0           0           0
  Income Before Taxes                 58,766      51,098      48,978      58,451
  Income Tax Expense                  15,636      17,919      16,930      18,322
  Minority Interest                        0        -172           0         -21
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s     43,130      33,007      32,048      40,108

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                  0           0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                      0           0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes             0           0           0           0
  Other Items                              0           0           0           0
  Net Income                          43,130      33,007      32,048      40,108

  Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s            0         107        -107           0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shs      43,130      33,114      31,941      40,108


Annual Balance Sheets:                                All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                        31-Dec-08      31-Dec-07      31-Dec-06
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                154,162        205,470        152,449
  Short Term Investments                  74,616         73,465         43,296
  Net Receivables                        115,563        117,708        106,205
  Inventory                                    0              0              0
  Other Current Assets                    16,039         18,523         13,840
  Total Current Assets                   360,380        415,166        315,790

  Long-Term Investments                        0              0              0
  Property, Plant & Equipt               109,210         93,832         81,988
  Goodwill                               550,282        554,842        536,049
  Intangible Assets                      157,723        159,869        168,969
  Accumulated Amortization                     0              0              0
  Other Assets                             4,930          4,517          1,008
  Deferred Long Term Asset Charges             0              0              0
  Total Assets                         1,182,525      1,228,226      1,103,804

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                       127,383        187,239        123,038
  Short/Current Long Term Debt                 0              0              0
  Other Current Liabilities               34,106         30,524         27,343
  Total Current Liabilities              161,489        217,763        150,381

  Long Term Debt                               0              0              0
  Other Liabilities                       21,576         17,154          6,065
  Deferred LT Liability Charges           39,057         29,785         35,773
  Minority Interest                          596              0              0
  Negative Goodwill                            0              0              0
  Total Liabilities                      222,718        264,702        192,219

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Stocks Options Warrants                0              0              0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock                   0              0              0
  Preferred Stock                              0              0              0
  Common Stock                             1,027          1,015            993
  Retained Earnings                      194,733        113,595         96,230
  Treasury Stock                        -190,000       -137,506       -105,690
  Capital Surplus                        976,651        941,265        887,071
  Other Stockholder Equity               -22,604         45,155         32,981
  Total Stockholder Equity               959,807        963,524        911,585
  Net Tangible Assets                    251,802        248,813        206,567


Quarterly Balance Sheets:                               All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                 30-Sep-09    30-Jun-09    31-Mar-09    31-Dec-08
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents        190,459      174,933      159,537      154,162
  Short Term Investments           99,766       94,565       84,538       74,616
  Net Receivables                 132,709      127,145      134,305      115,563
  Inventory                             0            0            0            0
  Other Current Assets             21,236       19,186       18,781       16,039
  Total Current Assets            444,170      415,829      397,161      360,380

  Long-Term Investments                 0            0            0            0
  Property, Plant & Equipt       112,143      110,601      107,448      109,210
  Goodwill                        566,714      565,674      547,723      550,282
  Intangible Assets               138,409      143,574      148,674      157,723
  Accumulated Amortization              0            0            0            0
  Other Assets                      5,036        4,944        4,337        4,930
  Deferred LT Asset Charges        43,620       43,097       40,933       34,106
  Total Assets                  1,266,472    1,240,622    1,205,343    1,182,525

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                 94,040       94,631      104,958      127,383
  Current Portion LT Debt               0            0            0            0
  Other Current Liabilities             0            0            0            0
  Total Current Liabilities       137,660      137,728      145,891      161,489

  Long Term Debt                        0            0            0            0
  Other Liabilities                26,586       26,734       25,213       21,576
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges        33,412       38,281       38,571       39,057
  Minority Interest                     0            0          458          596
  Negative Goodwill                     0            0            0            0
  Total Liabilities               197,658      202,743      210,133      222,718

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, WarrantS               0            0            0            0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock            0            0            0            0
  Preferred Stock                       0            0            0            0
  Common Stock                      1,042        1,034        1,031        1,027
  Retained Earnings               265,027      240,786      226,601      194,733
  Treasury Stock                 -208,736     -197,405     -190,000     -190,000
  Capital Surplus               1,007,278      994,506      988,446      976,651
  Other Stockholder Equity          4,203       -1,042      -30,868      -22,604
  Total Stockholder Equity      1,068,814    1,037,879      995,210      959,807
  Net Tangible Assets             363,691      328,631      298,813      251,802


Annual Cash Flow:                                    All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                       31-Dec-08      31-Dec-07      31-Dec-06

  Net Income                            142,648         33,007         93,362
Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                           55,378         50,073         47,756
  Adjustments to Net Income              13,015          2,582         10,165
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls           -1,839         -8,626        -14,869
  Changes in Liabilities                -12,628         22,201         39,475
  Changes in Inventories                      0              0              0
  Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's           -332         -7,651         -2,324
  Total Cash Flow fr Operations         196,242        184,562        173,565

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                        0        -36,809        -38,999
  Investments                            -1,787         -1,787        -30,723
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing         -43,666        -24,473        -33,244
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing         -90,962        -92,005        -90,763

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                              0        -47,072        -74,581
  Sale or Purchase of Stock             -35,484           -403        -12,076
  Net Borrowings                              0              0              0
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing           2,020          4,171          1,640
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing        -137,060        -43,304        -85,017

  Effect of Exchange Rate Change        -19,528          3,768          7,296
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s          51,308        -51,308         53,021


Quarterly Cash Flow:                                   All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                   30-Sep-09   30-Jun-09   31-Mar-09   31-Dec-08

  Net Income                         43,130      33,007      32,048      40,108

Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                       16,456      15,638      15,067      14,145
  Adjustments to Net Income          -3,708       2,654       4,767       3,460
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls            0           0           0      -1,839
  Changes in Liabilities                  0           0           0     -12,628
  Changes in Inventories                  0           0           0           0
  Changes in Other Oper'g Acts       -5,475      -2,177     -15,096      16,354
  Total Cash Flow f Operations       50,403      49,294      36,786      59,600

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                    0      -9,752      -5,736     -22,880
  Investments                        -5,710     -10,586     -10,370     -20,450
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing           0      -3,231           0     -16,328
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing     -15,379     -23,569     -16,106     -59,658

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                          0     -37,615           0     -14,054
  Sale or Purchase of Stock          -4,131      14,991     -13,074      -7,374
  Net Borrowings                          0           0           0           0
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing           0       1,173         134          42
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing     -21,677     -21,451     -12,940     -21,386

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg         2,179      11,122      -2,365      -9,225 
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.       15,526      15,396       5,375     -30,669


IDC    Interactive Data Corporation       [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
                                          or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28?    1.4870       P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  3.0000       Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    1.4337

Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   0.6443       Inventory/Sales < 5%?      1.0000
Sales < $1 billion?        1.3324       Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.2648

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        1.0000       Long-Term Debt Service:    3.0000
LTD Being Reduced?         1.0000       Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         1.6135       Working Capital >= 1.5?    0.6199
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      3.0000       Debt / Assets < 1?         1.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           2.3476       Inventory Turnover > 1?    1.0000
Shares Out Decreasing?     1.8000       Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion?  0.5474
                                        Profit Margin > 7.5%?      2.6106
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     2.1429       EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0000
Enterprise Value/Revenue:  2.1267       EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%?     0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   1.2753       EPS Growth Consistent?     2.4000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    1.7500       Collection < 45 days?      0.8007
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%?   0.2850       Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1?    3.0000
EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0000       Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%?   1.0000

Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          1.4871       % Held by Insiders  < 5%?  0.0811
Beta > 1.25?               0.4320       % Held by Institut. < 50?  1.3966
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.1022       % Held by Institut. > 30?  1.1933
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  1.9428       Short Ratio > 5?           0.4600
Price/Book Value < 3?      1.4700       Short % of Float > 20?     0.0450
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.6429       Average Volume > 100,000?  1.8959

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  1.7144       Positive Free Cash Flow?   1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  1.0000       Price to C.F./sh. Ratio:   1.7112
                                        Cash Flow / Assets >.10?   0.9031

IDC     Interactive Data Corporation    Overall Zenith Index:      1.3267


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Ownership:

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for Interactive Data Corporation:
Symbol? IDC
Total Months Available:  85
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  27.30   20.19     25.72   21.96     29.41   24.72

RANGE   =  29.41  TO   20.19            Close =  28.87
CHANNEL =  25.72  TO   24.72           Degree =   1
Volatility =   3.46%                    Index =   0
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The "ultimate systems" are inconclusive, giving no clear confirmed signals.

The corresponding trades for the above chart are shown in tabular form below.



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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison - 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index + 1
GAAP vs. non-GAAP Earnings < 1%+ 1
Cash Flow + 1
Ratios + 1
Market Grader + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Intrinsic Value DDM - 1
Stock Scout + 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports 0
Analysts - 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity - 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest - 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
Moving Average + 1
Right Time Study - 1
Stock Fetcher - 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network 0
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems 0
Total + 2
Place 1,030 shares of Interactive Data Corporation (IDC) on the Active List.