11-01-2011: Gentiva Health Services, Inc. (GTIV): Heart Versus Austerity

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Recommendation

Gentiva Health Services, Inc.

Gentiva Health Services provides home health care for the aged. It's better than an assisted living home for many who otherwise couldn't take care of themselves. But the industry has been under investigation by Senate committees for possible Medicare fraud. Gentiva advertises that perhaps the entire cost of home health care can be picked up by Medicare.

This company was selected on the basis of spectacular earnings growth coupled with high volatility in stock share price. This turned out to be possibly not the best method for screening. The company utterly failed to pass the Zenith Index test. Even though the financial ratios looked good to us except possibly for high debt, failure of our Index test points to flaws in the fundamentals or company books.

Another thing that jumped out right away was the number of legal teams lining up at the door with class action lawsuits, both past and presently ongoing. These seemed intially to surround the company's acquisition of Odyssey Healthcare which greatly allowed the company to inflate earnings. Increasing earnings through acqusitions is one way executives show "performance" but it can be misleading. In actuality, the projected earnings for the company as a whole are rapidly decreasing. Prospects for home health care service providers are deemed to be on the chopping block of one of the first Medicare cuts to be considered by Congress. Most of Geniva's revenues come from Medicare. Add to this $12 million in fines paid to the Government by Geniva after being found guilty of Medicare billing abuses by ordering an excess number of home visits to inflate Medicare billing charges. Now the lawyers are lining up to jump on the Senate verdict by charging the company with fraud thus misleading investors. Despite all the bad publicity, we believe Gentiva's corporate governance is excellent.

Before you run out an sell the company shares short, which have already been pounded down to where the current p/e is below 2 and the book value is five times the stock share price, consider that Dimensional Fund Advisors is a major institutional holder and funds are in general buying more shares by a wide margin. (DFA is our favorite fund manager with a sterling performance record in our opinion.)

Even Cramer appears confused, listing the stock as one "about to pop" while giving it a neutral rating on this website.

Gentiva recognizes that the baby boomers are back in force as a factor in the American economy. America's aging population provides a ready source of growth for the company.

A key buzzword in the company's expansion plans is "hospice" which is a type of home health care for those with diseases which are uncurable, and concentrates of making a person's last days comfortable, pain-free, and with dignity. Emotional, spiritual, social, and bereavement counseling services are an important part of this.

In many ways, it boils down to heartless Republicans convincing the American public that such care is too costly (except for their rich buddies), versus a Democrat view that universal healthcare is a more noble pursuit. Who will win out is subject to much debate and uncertainty, and markets abhor uncertainty.



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Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is consider strong and > 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Gentiva Health Services Inc.     (GTIV )    Sector: Healthcare
3350 Riverwood Parkway           Industry: Home Health Care
Suite 1400                       Exchange: Nasdaq
Atlanta, GA 30339

Gentiva Health Services, Inc. provides home health services and hospice
care in the United States. The company offers skilled nursing and therapy
services, paraprofessional nursing services, and homemaker services
primarily to adult and elderly patients through licensed and
Medicare-certified agencies. It also provides its services through
specialty programs comprising Gentiva Orthopedics, which offers
individualized home orthopedic rehabilitation services to patients
recovering from joint replacement or other major orthopedic surgery;
Gentiva Safe Strides that provides therapies for patients with balance
issues; and Gentiva Cardiopulmonary, which helps patients and their
physicians manage heart and lung health in a home-based environment. In
addition, the company offers services through Gentiva Neurorehabilitation,
which helps patients who have experienced a neurological injury or
condition by removing the obstacles to healing in the patient-Ęs home;
Gentiva Senior Health that addresses the needs of patients with
age-related diseases and issues; and Rehab Without Walls unit, which
provides neurorehabilitation therapies for patients with traumatic brain
injury, cerebrovascular accident injury, and acquired brain injury.
Further, it offers consulting services to home health agencies, which
include operational support, billing and collection activities, and
on-site agency support and consulting. Additionally, the company provides
hospice services primarily in the patient-Ęs home or other residence, such
as an assisted living residence or nursing home, as well as in a hospital.
Gentiva Health Services, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in
Atlanta, Georgia.

Last Trade:   4.31                     52-Week Range:  29.21 -   2.81
Trade Date:  10-31                     Avg. Volume:    960,682 Shares
Index Membership:                                  Employees:  15,350

Corporate Governance:
    Audit (Low Concern), Board (Low Concern),
    Compensation (Low Concern), Shareholder Rights (Low Concern).

     EPS:   1.39     Dividend Amount: $  0.00       Yield:         0.00%
                    Ex-Dividend Date: Jun 18, 20  Mkt Cap: $    137,730K
                        Payout Ratio:  0.00%

     Last Split Factor (new for old): N/A      Split Date: N/A

Key Statistics:

Enterprise Value: $  1,070,000K           Revenue (ttm)  : $  1,770,000K
                                             Gross Profit: $    748,090K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $    232,120K

Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm):  0.60           Revenue per Share: $   59.01
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm):   4.60       Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y): 53.80%


P/E Ratio (fwd projected):  2.49      P/E Ratio (current):   3.24

P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected):  0.11  Operating Margin:   11.50%
               Price/Sales Ratio:  0.08     Profit Margin:    2.41%
                Price/Book Value:  0.21        Book Value: $ 21.72/sh.

Return on Assets:   7.97%        Net Income Avl to Common: $    45,870K
Return on Equity:   7.35%          Diluted Earnings/Share:     $  1.39
                              Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):      -72.60%

Balance Sheet Items :                   Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr)                      (trailing 12 mo.)

       Total Cash: $     98,150K        Operating Cash Flow:$    114,520K
       Total Debt: $  1,030,000K        Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$     65,790K
Total Debt/Equity:       154.33
 Total Cash/Share:      $  3.21
    Current Ratio:         1.55

Share Statistics:                       Stock Price History:

    Shares Outstanding:   30,610K       Stk 52-Week Change: -80.67%
                 Float:   28,840K       S&P 500 52-Wk Chng:   8.61%
  Sh. Short % of Float:     6.40%        50-Day Moving Avg:   4.96
           Short Ratio:     1.70        200-Day Moving Avg:  15.35
% Held by Institutions:    86.20%                     Beta:   1.15
    % Held by Insiders:     6.02%

Analysts' Estimates:               Cur. Qtr   Next Qtr  Cur. Year  Next Year
___________________________          Sep 11     Dec 11     Dec 11     Dec 12

  Average Earnings Estimate           0.48       0.52       2.08       1.81
  Average Revenue  Estimate            56M       461M     1,830M     1,840M

Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):

Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr):   3.667      EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY):   1.375
  PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected):   1.375             P/E Ratio (ttm):   1.375
      Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY): -11.000


Annual Income Statements:                          All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          Dec31,2010   Jan3, 2010   Dec28,2008

  Total Revenue                          1,447,029    1,152,460    1,300,438
  Cost of Revenue                          698,936      553,530      717,903
  Gross Profit                             748,093      598,930      582,535

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                         0            0            0
  Selling, General & Administrative        616,474      490,866      490,451
  Non-Recurring Expenses                         0            0     -107,933
  Other Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Total Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Operating Income or Loss                 131,619      108,064      200,017

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net            2,759        9,035        2,290
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes         134,378      117,099      202,307
  Interest Expense                          41,686        9,211       19,377
  Income Before Taxes                       92,692      107,888      182,930
  Income Tax Expense                        35,704       39,164       29,445
  Minority Interest                           -526            0            0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s           58,286       69,796      153,450

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                   -5,605      -10,614            0
  Extraordinary Items                            0            0            0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                   0            0            0
  Other Items                                    0            0            0
  Net Income                                52,155       59,182      153,450

  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts            0            0            0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shares         52,155       59,182      153,450


Quarterly Income Statements:                           All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                   Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010  Oct3, 2010

  Total Revenue                      456,943     458,815     464,966     387,833
  Cost of Revenue                    238,866     235,245     233,117     189,980
  Gross Profit                       218,077     223,570     231,849     197,853

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                   0           0           0           0
  Selling, General & Adminis.        194,049     175,209     179,993     171,710
  Non-Recurring Expenses                   0           0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Operating Income or Loss            24,028      48,361      51,856      26,143

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net      5,252         665         679         663
  Earnings Before Int. & Taxes        29,280      49,026      52,535      26,806
  Interest Expense                    21,425      27,548      24,729      13,443
  Income Before Taxes                  7,855      21,478      27,806      13,363
  Income Tax Expense                   2,851       8,413       8,951       4,996
  Minority Interest                     -151        -167        -393        -133
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s      5,340      13,619      18,872       8,885

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                  0           0      -2,660        -660
  Extraordinary Items                      0           0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes             0           0           0           0
  Other Items                              0           0           0           0
  Net Income                           5,189      13,452      15,819       8,092

  Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s            0           0           0           0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shs       5,189      13,452      15,819       8,092


Annual Balance Sheets:                                All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                       Dec31,2010     Jan3, 2010     Dec28,2008
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                104,752        152,410         69,201
  Short Term Investments                       0              0              0
  Net Receivables                        287,743        192,065        189,134
  Inventory                                    0              0              0
  Other Current Assets                    48,910         16,453         13,141
  Total Current Assets                   441,405        360,928        271,476

  Long-Term Investments                   50,635         49,336         59,314
  Property, Plant & Equipt                85,707         74,602         63,815
  Goodwill                             1,085,066        299,534        308,213
  Intangible Assets                      374,057        251,793        250,432
  Accumulated Amortization                     0              0              0
  Other Assets                            83,258         24,410         20,247
  Deferred Long Term Asset Charges             0              0              0
  Total Assets                         2,120,128      1,060,603        973,497

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                       224,018        121,126         48,922
  Short/Current Long Term Debt            25,000          5,000              0
  Other Current Liabilities               67,623         43,884         97,153
  Total Current Liabilities              316,641        170,010        146,075

  Long Term Debt                       1,026,563        232,000        251,000
  Other Liabilities                       27,493         21,503         17,189
  Deferred LT Liability Charges          111,199         65,927         64,262
  Minority Interest                        2,658              0              0
  Negative Goodwill                            0              0              0
  Total Liabilities                    1,484,554        489,440        478,526

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Stocks Options Warrants                0              0              0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock                   0              0              0
  Preferred Stock                              0              0              0
  Common Stock                             3,080          2,994          2,899
  Retained Earnings                      272,394        220,239        161,057
  Treasury Stock                         -12,484         -7,499         -2,502
  Capital Surplus                        372,106        355,429        334,687
  Other Stockholder Equity                   478              0         -1,170
  Total Stockholder Equity               635,574        571,163        494,971
  Net Tangible Assets                   -823,549         19,836        -63,674


Quarterly Balance Sheets:                               All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                Jun30,2011   Mar31,2011   Dec31,2010   Oct3, 2010
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents          98,149       91,792      104,752       81,670
  Short Term Investments                0            0            0            0
  Net Receivables                 284,675      303,390      287,743      310,292
  Inventory                             0            0            0            0
  Other Current Assets             42,238       46,394       48,910       46,555
  Total Current Assets            425,062      441,576      441,405      438,517

  Long-Term Investments            37,944       51,190       50,635       50,618
  Property, Plant & Equipt         85,842       84,681       85,707       83,363
  Goodwill                      1,085,066    1,085,066    1,085,066    1,085,066
  Intangible Assets               367,519      370,786      374,057      377,329
  Accumulated Amortization              0            0            0            0
  Other Assets                     89,160       92,864       83,258       83,351
  Deferred LT Asset Charges             0            0            0            0
  Total Assets                  2,090,593    2,126,163    2,120,128    2,118,244

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                199,123      207,621      224,018      214,397
  Current Portion LT Debt          20,938       31,250       25,000       38,750
  Other Current Liabilities        55,116       70,551       67,623       70,411
  Total Current Liabilities       275,177      309,422      316,641      323,558

  Long Term Debt                1,007,187    1,016,875    1,026,563    1,036,250
  Other Liabilities                30,051       30,827       27,493       27,333
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges       111,791      111,417      111,199      112,902
  Minority Interest                 2,530        2,523        2,658        2,543
  Negative Goodwill                     0            0            0            0
  Total Liabilities             1,426,736    1,471,064    1,484,554    1,502,586

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, WarrantS               0            0            0            0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock            0            0            0            0
  Preferred Stock                       0            0            0            0
  Common Stock                      3,122        3,115        3,080        3,046
  Retained Earnings               291,035      285,846      272,394      256,575
  Treasury Stock                  -12,878      -12,484      -12,484      -12,484
  Capital Surplus                 382,578      378,622      372,106      368,521
  Other Stockholder Equity              0            0          478            0
  Total Stockholder Equity        663,857      655,099      635,574      615,658
  Net Tangible Assets            -788,728     -800,753     -823,549     -846,737


Annual Cash Flow:                                    All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                      Dec31,2010     Jan3, 2010     Dec28,2008

  Net Income                             52,155         13,452        153,450
Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                           27,592         24,131         23,797
  Adjustments to Net Income              15,129         20,101        -79,231
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls           35,600        -14,556        -25,555
  Changes in Liabilities                 25,552         20,246           -750
  Changes in Inventories                      0              0              0
  Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's              0         -3,996         -1,011
  Total Cash Flow fr Operations         142,621        105,108         70,700

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                  -16,184        -24,857        -24,004
  Investments                                 0         12,000         18,250
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing               0              0              0
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing        -841,307        -17,232         38,684

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                              0              0              0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock               3,633          8,525         11,547
  Net Borrowings                        813,918        -14,875        -68,124
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing               0              0          2,227
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing         651,028         -4,667        -54,350

  Effect of Exchange Rate Change              0              0              0
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s         -47,658         83,209         55,034


Quarterly Cash Flow:                                   All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                  Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010  Oct3, 2010

  Net Income                          5,189      13,452      15,819       8,092

Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                       10,742      14,032      10,764       7,407
  Adjustments to Net Income           1,126       6,227      10,667      -3,531
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls       19,953     -20,449      13,468      13,384
  Changes in Liabilities             -9,202      -6,640       6,805      27,575
  Changes in Inventories                  0           0           0           0
  Changes in Other Oper'g Acts            0           0           0      -4,068
  Total Cash Flow f Operations       17,156       2,721      50,972      43,670

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures               -5,400      -3,317      -6,875      -3,696
  Investments                             0           0           0           0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing           0           0       1,000    -826,419
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing       7,861      -3,317      -5,875    -830,115

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                          0           0           0           0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock           1,583       4,652       1,650       1,356
  Net Borrowings                    -20,069      -3,514      85,248     734,014
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing        -174        -239           0           0
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing     -18,660     -12,364     -22,015     677,049

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg             0           0           0           0
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.        6,357     -12,960      23,082    -109,396


GTIV   Gentiva Health Services Inc.       [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
                                          or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28?    3.0000       P/E Ratio > 5?             0.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate: -1.6700       Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    3.0000

Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   3.0000       Inventory/Sales < 5%?      1.0000
Sales < $1 billion?        0.6911       Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.6522

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.0026       Long-Term Debt Service:    0.6191
LTD Being Reduced?         2.4000       Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.7750       Working Capital >= 1.5?    1.2948
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.4614       Debt / Assets < 1?         2.0653
Quick Ratio > 1?           1.3912       Inventory Turnover > 1?    1.0000
Shares Out Decreasing?     1.8000       Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion?  3.0000
                                        Profit Margin > 7.5%?      0.3213
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000       EPS Annual Growth > 10%?  -2.6200
Enterprise Value/Revenue:  0.4000       EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%?     3.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   0.6571       EPS Growth Consistent?     0.6000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?   -3.0000       Collection < 45 days?      0.6200
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%?   3.0000       Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1?    3.0000
EPS Annual Growth > 10%?  -2.6200       Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%?   1.9335

Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          3.0000       % Held by Insiders  < 5%?  0.8306
Beta > 1.25?               0.9200       % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.5800
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?     -3.0000       % Held by Institut. > 30?  2.8733
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  0.5740       Short Ratio > 5?           0.3400
Price/Book Value < 3?      3.0000       Short % of Float > 20?     0.3200
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.4688       Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  1.7407       Positive Free Cash Flow?   1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  1.0000       Price to C.F./sh. Ratio:   0.1495
                                        Cash Flow / Assets >.10?   0.3147

GTIV    Gentiva Health Services Inc.    Overall Zenith Index:      1.0724


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The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for Gentiva Health Services:
Symbol? GTIV
Total Months Available:  44
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  28.23   20.96     29.21   18.78     21.83    2.81

RANGE   =  29.21  TO    2.81            Close =   4.34
CHANNEL =  21.83  TO   20.96           Degree =   0
Volatility =  20.05%                    Index =   0
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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News - 1
Comparison - 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index - 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings < 1%- 1
Cash Flow + 1
Ratios + 1
Market Grader - 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Intrinsic Value DDM + 1
Stock Scout - 1
Projected Earnings - 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts - 1
Executive Perquisites + 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment - 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
Moving Average + 1
Right Time Study + 1
Stock Fetcher - 1
Point & Figure - 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart + 1
Neural Network 0
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total - 2
Place 6,650 shares of Gentiva Health Services, Inc. (GTIV) on the Active List.