10-11-2011: Glatfelter, P. H. Company (GLT): Corporate Governance & Stability in the Paper Industry

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Recommendation

Glatfelter, P. H. Company

The paper industry is not always the most glamorous for stocks. Paper companies often make good defensive plays in a weak market. But the first thing that jumped out at us regarding this stock was corporate governance. This company evidently has strong corporate governance, in fact so strong, that the CEO has gotten in trouble with some of his corporate buddies for denouncing corporate greed in many American corporations. Executive compensation and stock option perqs are not an issue here.

Also, Dimensional Fund Advisors is holding 8.4% of the stock as the largest institutional holder and funds are in general acquiring more. This is a very good sign. DFA is our favorite institutional fund manager with a reputation for good research.

Also, we look at a long term chart over the past decade and find this stock has held up remarkably well through all kinds of markets, good and bad. Paying over 2% dividends, this stock looks pretty safe, but rolls enough to encourage some option trading to capture short term swings without too much risk.

The company manufactures an astonishing variety of paper products, everything from medical supplies to food packaging, filters, labels, book publishing papers, packaging, wallpaper, and various specialties for various types of printing, artwork, and engineering.

Along with the paper-making and mill industry comes a host of environmental issues related to forestry and water pollution (as paper mills are generally located near streams.) Glatfelter is sensitive to these issues.

Recent issues with the company surround its attempts to expand in England.

In recent share price performance, Glatfelter has outperformed the other top five companies in the paper products industry. Still, the entire industry group as a whole has been weak of late. When Neenah Paper was spun off from Kimberly Clark as a separate specialty papers manufacturer, it set its dividend so that eventually it was at the same rate as Glatfelter's, the highest in the industry. But Neenah lost 93% of its share value since its spinoff in March, 2007 by March, 2009. If one looks at the doings of the likes of Georgia Pacific and Weyerhauser regarding their divisions having anything to do with paper or containerboard, it appears forestry and wood products-related companies would rather do without these divisions.



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is consider strong and > 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

PH Glatfelter Co.                (GLT  )    Sector: Consumer Goods
96 South George Street           Industry: Paper & Paper Products
Suite 500                        Exchange: NYSE
York, PA 17401

P. H. Glatfelter Company manufactures and sells specialty papers and
fiber-based engineered materials in the United States and internationally.
It offers carbonless and forms papers for credit card receipts, multi-part
forms, security papers, and other end-user applications; book publishing
papers for the production of hardbound books and other book publishing
needs; envelope and converting papers for the direct mail market, shopping
bags, and other converting applications; and engineered products for
digital imaging, transfer, casting, release, postal, playing card, and
other niche specialty applications. The company also provides food and
beverage paper used for tea bags and single serve coffee products;
metallized products used in the labeling of beer bottles, innerliners,
gift wrap, self-adhesive labels, and other consumer products applications;
and composite laminates papers used in production of decorative laminates,
furniture, and flooring applications, as well as a line of paper products
used in batteries, medical masks, and other engineered applications. In
addition, it offers airlaid non-woven fabric-like materials used in
feminine hygiene products, adult incontinence products, cleaning pads and
wipes, food pads, napkins and tablecloths, and baby wipes. The company
markets its products directly, as well as through wholesale paper
merchants, brokers, and agents. P. H. Glatfelter Company was founded in
1864 and is headquartered in York, Pennsylvania.

Last Trade:  13.71                     52-Week Range:  16.03 -  11.00
Trade Date:  10-09                     Avg. Volume:    306,320 Shares
Index Membership:                                  Employees:   4,337

Corporate Governance:
    Audit (Low Concern), Board (Low Concern), Compensation
    (Medium Concern), Shareholder Rights (Low Concern).

     EPS:   1.60     Dividend Amount: $  0.36       Yield:         2.60%
                    Ex-Dividend Date: Oct 3, 201  Mkt Cap: $    626,750K
                        Payout Ratio: 28.00%

     Last Split Factor (new for old): 2:1      Split Date: May 14, 19

Key Statistics:

Enterprise Value: $    851,030K           Revenue (ttm)  : $  1,560,000K
                                             Gross Profit: $    186,250K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $    148,980K

Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm):  0.55           Revenue per Share: $   33.90
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm):   5.71       Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y):  9.70%


P/E Ratio (fwd projected):  9.46      P/E Ratio (current):   8.57

P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected):  1.46  Operating Margin:    5.20%
               Price/Sales Ratio:  0.41     Profit Margin:    4.78%
                Price/Book Value:  1.09        Book Value: $ 12.80/sh.

Return on Assets:   3.80%        Net Income Avl to Common: $    74,630K
Return on Equity:  14.07%          Diluted Earnings/Share:     $  1.60
                              Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):        2.00%

Balance Sheet Items :                   Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr)                      (trailing 12 mo.)

       Total Cash: $    108,300K        Operating Cash Flow:$    133,640K
       Total Debt: $    332,570K        Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$     43,600K
Total Debt/Equity:        56.83
 Total Cash/Share:      $  2.37
    Current Ratio:         2.37

Share Statistics:                       Stock Price History:

    Shares Outstanding:   45,720K       Stk 52-Week Change:  12.01%
                 Float:   45,220K       S&P 500 52-Wk Chng:  -0.83%
  Sh. Short % of Float:     8.90%        50-Day Moving Avg:  13.51
           Short Ratio:    14.60        200-Day Moving Avg:  14.04
% Held by Institutions:    89.90%                     Beta:   1.57
    % Held by Insiders:     1.02%

Analysts' Estimates:               Cur. Qtr   Next Qtr  Cur. Year  Next Year
___________________________          Sep 11     Dec 11     Dec 11     Dec 12

  Average Earnings Estimate           0.38       0.32       1.05       1.45
  Average Revenue  Estimate            25M       407M     1,630M     1,650M

Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):

Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr):   6.750      EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY): -81.000
  PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected):   9.000             P/E Ratio (ttm):   9.449
      Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY):   2.531


Annual Income Statements:                          All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          Dec31,2010   Dec31,2009   Dec31,2008

  Total Revenue                          1,465,984    1,197,342    1,273,214
  Cost of Revenue                        1,279,737      927,578    1,095,432
  Gross Profit                             186,247      269,764      177,782

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                         0            0            0
  Selling, General & Administrative        122,111      110,257       97,897
  Non-Recurring Expenses                      -453         -898      -19,324
  Other Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Total Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Operating Income or Loss                  64,589      160,405       99,209

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net           -5,513        1,961        4,977
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes          59,076      162,366      104,186
  Interest Expense                          25,547       19,220       23,160
  Income Before Taxes                       33,529      143,146       81,026
  Income Tax Expense                       -20,905       19,704       23,138
  Minority Interest                              0            0            0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s           54,434      123,442       57,888

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                        0            0            0
  Extraordinary Items                            0            0            0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                   0            0            0
  Other Items                                    0            0            0
  Net Income                                54,434      123,442       57,888

  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts            0            0            0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shares         54,434      123,442       57,888


Quarterly Income Statements:                           All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                   Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010  Sep30,2010

  Total Revenue                      400,045     399,758     377,997     382,409
  Cost of Revenue                    362,545     339,591     327,166     326,669
  Gross Profit                        37,500      60,167      50,831      55,740

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                   0           0           0           0
  Selling, General & Adminis.         31,320      31,770      30,812      27,782
  Non-Recurring Expenses                 -29      -3,175        -453         168
  Other Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Operating Income or Loss             6,209      31,572      20,154      28,108

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net       -125         214      -2,533         299
  Earnings Before Int. & Taxes         6,084      31,786      17,939      28,089
  Interest Expense                     6,461       6,460       6,502       6,565
  Income Before Taxes                   -377      25,326      11,437      21,524
  Income Tax Expense                  -2,878       7,900      -3,831     -17,913
  Minority Interest                        0           0           0           0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s      2,501      17,426      15,268      39,437

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                  0           0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                      0           0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes             0           0           0           0
  Other Items                              0           0           0           0
  Net Income                           2,501      17,426      15,268      39,437

  Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s            0           0           0           0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shs       2,501      17,426      15,268      39,437


Annual Balance Sheets:                                All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                       Dec31,2010     Dec31,2009     Dec31,2008
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                 95,788        135,420         32,234
  Short Term Investments                       0              0              0
  Net Receivables                        141,208        119,319        132,635
  Inventory                              201,077        168,370        193,354
  Other Current Assets                    64,617         96,947         33,596
  Total Current Assets                   502,690        520,056        391,819

  Long-Term Investments                        0              0         81,033
  Property, Plant & Equipt               608,170        470,632        493,564
  Goodwill                                     0              0         16,513
  Intangible Assets                            0              0          7,843
  Accumulated Amortization                     0              0              0
  Other Assets                           230,887        199,606         66,537
  Deferred Long Term Asset Charges             0              0              0
  Total Assets                         1,341,747      1,190,294      1,057,309

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                       102,784         67,774        164,743
  Short/Current Long Term Debt               798         17,647         19,625
  Other Current Liabilities              109,564        100,689          5,734
  Total Current Liabilities              213,146        186,110        190,102

  Long Term Debt                         332,224        236,936        293,660
  Other Liabilities                      149,017        159,876        140,682
  Deferred LT Liability Charges           94,918         96,668         90,158
  Minority Interest                            0              0              0
  Negative Goodwill                            0              0              0
  Total Liabilities                      789,305        679,590        714,602

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Stocks Options Warrants                0              0              0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock                   0              0              0
  Preferred Stock                              0              0              0
  Common Stock                               544            544            544
  Retained Earnings                      749,453        711,765        605,001
  Treasury Stock                        -124,453       -128,466       -132,511
  Capital Surplus                         48,145         46,746         45,806
  Other Stockholder Equity              -121,247       -119,885       -176,133
  Total Stockholder Equity               552,442        510,704        342,707
  Net Tangible Assets                    552,442        510,704        318,351


Quarterly Balance Sheets:                               All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                Jun30,2011   Mar31,2011   Dec31,2010   Sep30,2010
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents         108,296      115,937       95,788       63,333
  Short Term Investments                0            0            0            0
  Net Receivables                 162,268      167,366      141,208      160,859
  Inventory                       221,661      209,288      201,077      193,808
  Other Current Assets             54,793       46,288       64,617       65,060
  Total Current Assets            547,018      538,879      502,690      483,060

  Long-Term Investments                 0            0            0            0
  Property, Plant & Equipt        623,798      616,223      608,170      623,783
  Goodwill                              0            0            0            0
  Intangible Assets                     0            0            0            0
  Accumulated Amortization              0            0            0            0
  Other Assets                    229,772      233,261      230,887      225,892
  Deferred LT Asset Charges             0            0            0            0
  Total Assets                  1,400,588    1,388,363    1,341,747    1,332,735

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                124,864      115,716      102,784      103,067
  Current Portion LT Debt               0          690          798        1,026
  Other Current Liabilities       105,908      101,373      109,564      104,712
  Total Current Liabilities       230,772      217,779      213,146      208,805

  Long Term Debt                  332,565      332,393      332,224      332,058
  Other Liabilities               143,263      150,717      149,017      164,583
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges       108,766      103,415       94,918       89,962
  Minority Interest                     0            0            0            0
  Negative Goodwill                     0            0            0            0
  Total Liabilities               815,366      804,304      789,305      795,408

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, WarrantS               0            0            0            0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock            0            0            0            0
  Preferred Stock                       0            0            0            0
  Common Stock                        544          544          544          544
  Retained Earnings               760,992      762,674      749,453      738,427
  Treasury Stock                 -127,720     -123,886     -124,453     -126,337
  Capital Surplus                  49,694       48,989       48,145       49,004
  Other Stockholder Equity        -98,288     -104,262     -121,247     -124,311
  Total Stockholder Equity        585,222      584,059      552,442      537,327
  Net Tangible Assets             585,222      584,059      552,442      537,327


Annual Cash Flow:                                    All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                      Dec31,2010     Dec31,2009     Dec31,2008

  Net Income                             54,434         17,426         57,888
Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                           68,597         62,946         60,611
  Adjustments to Net Income              51,987        -78,611        -40,783
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls             -598         16,542        -17,668
  Changes in Liabilities                 19,574          9,066          2,481
  Changes in Inventories                 -7,592         28,207         -9,975
  Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's              0          2,276            871
  Total Cash Flow fr Operations         168,005        163,868         53,425

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                  -36,491        -26,257        -52,469
  Investments                                 0         37,850              0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing               0            951         19,279
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing        -264,217         12,544        -33,190

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                        -16,746        -16,596        -16,469
  Sale or Purchase of Stock                   0              0              0
  Net Borrowings                         72,452        -24,733          2,425
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing               0        -34,000          1,165
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing          59,681        -75,329        -12,879

  Effect of Exchange Rate Change         -3,101          2,103         -4,955
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s         -39,632        103,186          2,401


Quarterly Cash Flow:                                   All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                  Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010  Sep30,2010

  Net Income                          2,501      17,426      15,268      39,437

Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                       18,047      17,541      19,795      15,198
  Adjustments to Net Income          10,372      20,766      54,294     -58,603
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls        6,210     -24,636      18,008      -1,084
  Changes in Liabilities             12,097       1,238       4,747        -602
  Changes in Inventories            -12,342      -4,305      -8,950       1,701
  Changes in Other Oper'g Acts            0        -417     -58,537      44,658
  Total Cash Flow f Operations       20,700      27,613      44,625      40,705

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures              -19,789      -8,088     -13,222      -7,824
  Investments                             0           0           0           0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing           0       3,405       1,021         151
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing     -19,754      -4,683     -12,201      -7,673

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                     -4,190      -4,206      -4,190      -4,196
  Sale or Purchase of Stock          -4,258           6           0          37
  Net Borrowings                       -691        -107        -272      -5,762
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing           0           0           0           0
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing      -9,139      -4,307        -634      -9,921

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg             0           0           0       1,526
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.       -7,641      20,149      32,455      20,706


GLT    PH Glatfelter Co.                  [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
                                          or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28?    3.0000       P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  2.3800       Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    2.9598

Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   3.0000       Inventory/Sales < 5%?      0.3645
Sales < $1 billion?        0.6821       Operating Margin < 7.5%?   1.4423

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.0070       Long-Term Debt Service:    1.6629
LTD Being Reduced?         0.6000       Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         1.1850       Working Capital >= 1.5?    0.8437
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.7817       Debt / Assets < 1?         3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           1.1724       Inventory Turnover > 1?    3.0000
Shares Out Decreasing?     1.2000       Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion?  2.3933
                                        Profit Margin > 7.5%?      0.6373
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     2.3077       EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   1.9300
Enterprise Value/Revenue:  0.3667       EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%?    -3.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   0.8157       EPS Growth Consistent?     1.2000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.2000       Collection < 45 days?      1.2799
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%?   1.4550       Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1?    3.0000
EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   1.9300       Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%?   1.2462

Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          1.4887       % Held by Insiders  < 5%?  3.0000
Beta > 1.25?               1.2560       % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.5562
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?     -0.1160       % Held by Institut. > 30?  2.9967
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500: -0.0553       Short Ratio > 5?           2.9200
Price/Book Value < 3?      2.9100       Short % of Float > 20?     0.4450
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.2235       Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  3.0000       Positive Free Cash Flow?   1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  1.0000       Price to C.F./sh. Ratio:   1.0268
                                        Cash Flow / Assets >.10?   0.3113

GLT     PH Glatfelter Co.               Overall Zenith Index:      1.4914


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The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
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deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for P. H. Glatfelter Co.:
Symbol? GLT
Total Months Available:  46
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  13.37   11.68     15.44   11.00     16.03   11.73

RANGE   =  16.03  TO   11.00            Close =  13.92
CHANNEL =  13.37  TO   11.73           Degree =   3
Volatility =  11.78%                    Index =   3
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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison - 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index + 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings < 1%+ 1
Cash Flow + 1
Ratios + 1
Market Grader - 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Intrinsic Value DDM 0
Stock Scout + 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites + 1
Insider Activity + 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest - 1
Sentiment - 1
Standard & Poor's + 1
Moving Average + 1
Right Time Study + 1
Stock Fetcher - 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network + 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems 0
Total + 11
Place 2,125 shares of P.H. Glatfelter Co. (GLT) on the Active List.