10-03-2011: VAALCO Energy, Inc. (EGY): Why Not Try Africa?

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Recommendation

VAALCO Energy, Inc.

When one selects stocks using a "stock screener" and inputs values for p/e ratio, price/sales, debt, and revenue growth using the same parameters, one is apt to get a series of companies in the same industry group. Some of the fundamentally strongest companies in our opinion are in the oil and gas exploration and service equipment group. In particular, a limited number of companies in the "international exploration" group are favored. VAALCO Energy (EGY) is one of those. We have recently reviewed Harvest Natural Resources, a competitor in the same line of international business. It popped up using the same screening criteria. Thus EGY has a very high Zenith Index suggesting it has very strong fundamentals and growth potential. But like all American companies drawing the bulk of their reveue from overseas, especially in places like around Africa, it runs the risks of fickle or unpredictable foreign governments, especially those run by dictators. In that regard, Zenith often quotes, "A contract is valid only as long as both parties determine to honor it!" This, like peace treaties, trumps any legalities when one deals with certain foreigners.

VAALCO and Harvest both have led the way in international oil exploration ventures, where two have gone, more are sure to follow. Noting their success, the "biggies" like Shell and Exxon are also moving in.

VAALCO was founded rather recently in 1985, was listed on the AMEX in 2004 and quickly graduated to the NYSE. In its early days one hears about ventures in Montana, Texas the Gulf of Mexico, India, and then in the Philippines. You don't hear much about these lately, especially the Philippines or any ventures near what China considers its "territorial" waters, as these governments have proven to be very unreliable when dealing with foreigners. So the company turned to offshore Africa, where is located the bulk of its operations near Angola and Gabon. So far, so good, apparently there. Although, we did note in a recent Chairman's Letter, concern about the failure of a partner in the Angolan ventures, and the search for a new one. We sought to define who that partner was and were unsuccessful, although suspect it might have been InterOil Exploration & Production ASA of Norway. The company also has to deal with strict Gabonese Government regulations requiring the hiring of local, not foreign workers.

We note the presence of Dimensional Fund Advisors among the insitutional holders, always a positive sign, as we have great confidence in DFA. Not so good was the presence of another large shareholder, Nanes Delorme Partners LP, which successfully placed pressure on VAALCO to separate the CEO and Chairman positions, and change the CFO and COO, although it did not succeed in getting the company to sell out after claiming it was mismanaged.

Like many oil exploration stocks, the share performance has been weak of late, the industry group as a whole weak, and the general stock market weak. Placing them altogether, it is hard to get a strong rating on any stock these days when one adds in a number of technical chart factors.

VAALCO is very capital intensive, from its strong fundamental position with little or no debt. It manages its investments in foreign oil ventures with many partners from its Houston headquarters. There appears to us to be little "mismanagement" as claimed by the one large institutional fund shareholder, and executive compensation seems reasonable with good corporate governance in other areas as well.



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Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is consider strong and > 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Vaalco Energy Inc.               (EGY  )    Sector: Basic Materials
4600 Post Oak Place              Industry: Independent Oil & Gas
Suite 309                        Exchange: NYSE
Houston, TX 77027

VAALCO Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the
acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil and
natural gas. The company owns producing properties and conducts
exploration activities as an operator of consortiums internationally in
Gabon and Angola; and as a non-operator in the British North Sea. It also
has interests onshore in Texas and Alabama; and in the offshore Texas and
Louisiana Gulf Coast area. The company owns a 30.35% interest in the
exploration acreage within the Etame Marin block; a 28.1% interest in the
development areas surrounding the Etame, Avouma, South Tchibala, and
Ebouri fields; interests in Mutamba Iroru block onshore Gabon; a 40%
working interest in approximately 1.4 million acre Block 5 offshore,
Angola; and a 70% working interest in 5,214 acres in Sheridan County,
Montana. VAALCO Energy, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in
Houston, Texas.

Last Trade:   4.86                     52-Week Range:   8.40 -   4.68
Trade Date:  10-02                     Avg. Volume:    748,202 Shares
Index Membership:                                  Employees:      89

Corporate Governance:
    Audit (Low Concern), Board (Medium Concern), Compensation
    (High Concern), Shareholder Rights (Low Concern).

     EPS:   0.77     Dividend Amount: $  0.00       Yield:         0.00%
                    Ex-Dividend Date: Jul 22, 20  Mkt Cap: $    277,210K
                        Payout Ratio:  0.00%

     Last Split Factor (new for old): N/A      Split Date: N/A

Key Statistics:

Enterprise Value: $    162,750K           Revenue (ttm)  : $    176,110K
                                             Gross Profit: $    112,360K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $    138,350K

Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm):  0.92           Revenue per Share: $    3.10
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm):   1.18       Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y): 73.90%


P/E Ratio (fwd projected):  4.96      P/E Ratio (current):   6.31

P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected):  2.76  Operating Margin:   64.74%
               Price/Sales Ratio:  1.57     Profit Margin:   25.19%
                Price/Book Value:  1.27        Book Value: $  3.81/sh.

Return on Assets:  29.82%        Net Income Avl to Common: $    44,360K
Return on Equity:  25.48%          Diluted Earnings/Share:     $  0.77
                              Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):       17.40%

Balance Sheet Items :                   Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr)                      (trailing 12 mo.)

       Total Cash: $    114,470K        Operating Cash Flow:$     71,600K
       Total Debt: $          0K        Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$     43,720K
Total Debt/Equity:         0.00
 Total Cash/Share:      $  2.01
    Current Ratio:         8.28

Share Statistics:                       Stock Price History:

    Shares Outstanding:   57,040K       Stk 52-Week Change: -14.74%
                 Float:   50,410K       S&P 500 52-Wk Chng:  -1.29%
  Sh. Short % of Float:     0.00%        50-Day Moving Avg:   5.91
           Short Ratio:     7.90        200-Day Moving Avg:   6.47
% Held by Institutions:    74.20%                     Beta:   0.61
    % Held by Insiders:     5.83%

Analysts' Estimates:               Cur. Qtr   Next Qtr  Cur. Year  Next Year
___________________________          Sep 11     Dec 11     Dec 11     Dec 12

  Average Earnings Estimate           0.25       0.24       0.88       0.98
  Average Revenue  Estimate             3M        53M       210M       229M

Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):

Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr):   4.793      EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY):   6.488
  PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected): 192.670             P/E Ratio (ttm):  84.188
      Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY):   7.093


Annual Income Statements:                          All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          Dec31,2010   Dec31,2009   Dec31,2008

  Total Revenue                            134,472      115,298      169,525
  Cost of Revenue                           22,112       21,978       33,340
  Gross Profit                             112,360       93,320      136,185

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                         0            0            0
  Selling, General & Administrative          7,403        3,077       10,776
  Non-Recurring Expenses                     6,813       36,464            0
  Other Operating Expenses                  20,021       20,760       18,937
  Total Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Operating Income or Loss                  78,123       33,019      106,472

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net             -476          189        2,515
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes          77,647       33,208      108,987
  Interest Expense                               0          450          240
  Income Before Taxes                       77,647       32,758      108,747
  Income Tax Expense                        35,260       36,902       73,014
  Minority Interest                         -5,047       -3,745       -6,011
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s           37,340       -7,889       29,722

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                        0            0            0
  Extraordinary Items                            0            0            0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                   0            0            0
  Other Items                                    0            0            0
  Net Income                                37,340       -7,889       29,722

  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts            0            0            0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shares         37,340       -7,889       29,722


Quarterly Income Statements:                           All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                   Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010  Sep30,2010

  Total Revenue                       58,547      46,772      38,187      32,604
  Cost of Revenue                      5,807       5,233       6,231       4,815
  Gross Profit                        52,740      41,539      31,956      27,789

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                   0           0           0           0
  Selling, General & Adminis.          2,495       2,980       1,548         949
  Non-Recurring Expenses               1,189       1,119       4,699         695
  Other Operating Expenses             6,545       6,098       7,161       4,542
  Total Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Operating Income or Loss            42,511      31,342      18,548      21,603

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net        639        -158         -11        -301
  Earnings Before Int. & Taxes        43,150      31,184      18,537      21,302
  Interest Expense                         0           0           0           0
  Income Before Taxes                 43,150      31,184      18,537      21,302
  Income Tax Expense                  29,641      18,288       8,421       7,369
  Minority Interest                   -1,723      -1,657      -1,231      -1,482
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s     11,786      11,239       8,885      12,451

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                  0           0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                      0           0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes             0           0           0           0
  Other Items                              0           0           0           0
  Net Income                          11,786      11,239       8,885      12,451

  Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s            0           0           0           0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shs      11,786      11,239       8,885      12,451


Annual Balance Sheets:                                All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                       Dec31,2010     Dec31,2009     Dec31,2008
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                 96,166         86,142        125,425
  Short Term Investments                       0              0          7,445
  Net Receivables                         40,660         26,904         15,383
  Inventory                                1,049            446          1,806
  Other Current Assets                     1,482          1,217          2,351
  Total Current Assets                   139,357        114,709        152,410

  Long-Term Investments                      874         10,873         15,637
  Property, Plant & Equipt               108,266         81,018         82,287
  Goodwill                                     0              0              0
  Intangible Assets                            0              0              0
  Accumulated Amortization                     0              0              0
  Other Assets                                 0            502            347
  Deferred Long Term Asset Charges         1,349          1,349          1,349
  Total Assets                           238,400        202,999        252,030

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                        26,702         33,728         63,167
  Short/Current Long Term Debt                 0              0              0
  Other Current Liabilities                    0              0              0
  Total Current Liabilities               26,702         33,728         63,167

  Long Term Debt                               0              0          5,000
  Other Liabilities                       15,455         12,166         10,071
  Deferred LT Liability Charges                0              0              0
  Minority Interest                        4,718          5,664          7,914
  Negative Goodwill                            0              0              0
  Total Liabilities                       46,875         51,558         86,152

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Stocks Options Warrants                0              0              0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock                   0              0              0
  Preferred Stock                              0              0              0
  Common Stock                             6,282          6,157          6,112
  Retained Earnings                      146,594        109,249        117,205
  Treasury Stock                         -25,665        -21,515        -11,422
  Capital Surplus                         64,314         57,550         53,983
  Other Stockholder Equity                     0              0              0
  Total Stockholder Equity               191,525        151,441        165,878
  Net Tangible Assets                    191,525        151,441        165,878


Quarterly Balance Sheets:                               All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                Jun30,2011   Mar31,2011   Dec31,2010   Sep30,2010
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents         125,510      103,995       96,166       96,766
  Short Term Investments                0            0            0            0
  Net Receivables                  32,934       38,367       40,660       35,830
  Inventory                         1,363        1,196        1,049        1,003
  Other Current Assets              2,363        3,212        1,482        1,878
  Total Current Assets            162,170      146,770      139,357      135,477

  Long-Term Investments               874          874          874       10,874
  Property, Plant & Equipt         94,166       92,939      108,266      107,917
  Goodwill                              0            0            0            0
  Intangible Assets                     0            0            0            0
  Accumulated Amortization              0            0            0            0
  Other Assets                          0            0            0            0
  Deferred LT Asset Charges         1,349        1,349        1,349        1,349
  Total Assets                    258,559      241,932      238,400      234,497

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                 19,597       14,699       26,702       34,304
  Current Portion LT Debt               0            0            0            0
  Other Current Liabilities             0            0            0            0
  Total Current Liabilities        19,597       14,699       26,702       34,304

  Long Term Debt                        0            0            0            0
  Other Liabilities                16,822       17,308       15,455       13,568
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges             0            0            0            0
  Minority Interest                 4,901        4,876        4,718        4,985
  Negative Goodwill                     0            0            0            0
  Total Liabilities                41,320       36,883       46,875       52,857

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, WarrantS               0            0            0            0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock            0            0            0            0
  Preferred Stock                       0            0            0            0
  Common Stock                      6,305        6,302        6,282        6,230
  Retained Earnings               169,619      157,833      146,594      137,710
  Treasury Stock                  -25,665      -25,665      -25,665      -24,472
  Capital Surplus                  66,980       66,579       64,314       62,172
  Other Stockholder Equity              0            0            0            0
  Total Stockholder Equity        217,239      205,049      191,525      181,640
  Net Tangible Assets             217,239      205,049      191,525      181,640


Annual Cash Flow:                                    All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                      Dec31,2010     Dec31,2009     Dec31,2008

  Net Income                             37,340         11,239         29,722
Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                           20,021         20,760         19,062
  Adjustments to Net Income               3,909         34,898         17,794
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls          -10,450         -1,821         15,252
  Changes in Liabilities                 -9,950        -28,590         25,486
  Changes in Inventories                   -603          1,360           -540
  Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's              0          1,030           -198
  Total Cash Flow fr Operations          45,515         23,493        106,578

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                  -40,012        -61,340        -34,922
  Investments                                 0              0         -7,447
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing               0         12,374              0
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing         -39,373        -48,966        -42,369

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                         -5,993         -5,994         -6,494
  Sale or Purchase of Stock                 510         -8,322         -8,740
  Net Borrowings                              0         -5,000              0
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing               0            -66              0
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing          -5,478        -19,382        -15,234

  Effect of Exchange Rate Change              0              0              0
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s             664        -44,855         48,975


Quarterly Cash Flow:                                   All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                  Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010  Sep30,2010

  Net Income                         11,786      11,239       8,885      12,451

Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                        6,545       6,098       7,161       4,542
  Adjustments to Net Income             263       1,370       2,701         902
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls          488       3,175       8,967      -4,080
  Changes in Liabilities              5,779      -7,889     -18,708       3,863
  Changes in Inventories               -167        -147         -46        -261
  Changes in Other Oper'g Acts            0      -1,708         392       1,052
  Total Cash Flow f Operations       27,266      13,795      10,583      19,951

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures               -5,850      -5,475     -20,071      -6,519
  Investments                             0           0           0           0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing           0       3,546         611          -4
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing      -5,507      -1,929     -19,460      -6,523

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                          0      -1,499      -1,498      -2,997
  Sale or Purchase of Stock              99       1,008         387           0
  Net Borrowings                          0           0           0           0
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing           0           0          -1           1
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing          99        -491      -1,112      -2,996

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg             0           0           0           0
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.       21,858      11,375      -9,989      10,432


EGY    Vaalco Energy Inc.                 [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
                                          or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28?    3.0000       P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  3.0000       Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    3.0000

Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   1.4650       Inventory/Sales < 5%?      3.0000
Sales < $1 billion?        3.0000       Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.1158

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        1.0000       Long-Term Debt Service:    3.0000
LTD Being Reduced?         1.0000       Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         3.0000       Working Capital >= 1.5?    0.2417
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      3.0000       Debt / Assets < 1?         1.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000       Inventory Turnover > 1?    0.1332
Shares Out Decreasing?     0.6000       Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion?  3.0000
                                        Profit Margin > 7.5%?      3.0000
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000       EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   3.0000
Enterprise Value/Revenue:  0.6133       EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%?     1.1920
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   0.1686       EPS Growth Consistent?     1.8000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    1.7400       Collection < 45 days?      0.4077
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%?   3.0000       Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1?    3.0000
EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   3.0000       Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%?   1.0000

Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          2.2752       % Held by Insiders  < 5%?  0.8576
Beta > 1.25?               0.4880       % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.6739
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?     -0.3457       % Held by Institut. > 30?  2.4733
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500: -0.0860       Short Ratio > 5?           1.5800
Price/Book Value < 3?      2.7300       Short % of Float > 20?     0.0000
Return on Assets > 17%?    1.7541       Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  1.6377       Positive Free Cash Flow?   1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  1.0000       Price to C.F./sh. Ratio:   0.4529
                                        Cash Flow / Assets >.10?   1.6909

EGY     Vaalco Energy Inc.              Overall Zenith Index:      1.6869


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The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for Vaalco Energy:
Symbol? EGY
Total Months Available:  86
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
   8.17    5.54      8.40    6.09      7.36    4.80

RANGE   =   8.40  TO    4.80            Close =   4.85
CHANNEL =   7.36  TO    6.09           Degree =   4
Volatility =  26.19%                    Index =  10
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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison - 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index + 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings < 1%+ 1
Cash Flow + 1
Ratios + 1
Market Grader + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Intrinsic Value DDM 0
Stock Scout - 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites + 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest - 1
Sentiment - 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
Moving Average - 1
Right Time Study - 1
Stock Fetcher + 1
Point & Figure - 1
Wall Street Analyzer + 1
Marketspace Chart - 1
Time Series Chart + 1
Neural Network + 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total + 6
Place 6,000 shares of VAALCO Energy, Inc. (EGY)I on the Active List.