' Zenith Trading & Holding Corporation

12-23-2009: Direc-TV Group Inc. (DTV): A Checkered History of Various Owners

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Recommendation

Direc-TV Group Inc.

Direc-TV is an alternative to Dish Network or your local cable company. News on this El Segundo-based company is very hard to obtain. Part of this is due to its former association with Hughes Electronics Corp. which made tracking somewhat difficult and caused some of our major information sources to overlook the stock altogether. It has had very strong technical performance recently. But while our two favorite researchers, Market Grader and Street.Com agree it is a "buy," almost no other research group agrees with them except "the analysts." It has a bad Zenith Index and as we tried to evaluate why, we found it had a very low book value, high debt, a lot of institutional control where institutions appear to be dumping the stock, and a stock trading volume which we felt was out of proportion to company size.

It does appear to be taking market share away from both the cable companies and Dish Network. Our own investigation indicated the company had a greater diversity of satelites than Dish which helped position it for foreign sources of income, particularly in Latin America.

Its association with Hughes Aircraft/Aerospace was of particular interest to us. Hughes was once consider "the jewel" of the aerospace companies because the average length of stay for an employee was seven years (considered high by aerospace standards.) Howard Hughes was often criticized by us as an example of "too big to fail" where crazy decisions by him did not totally sink his various enterprises. One of the odd decisions was to run Hughes Aircraft tax free by donating it to a non-profit organization, Hughes Medical Institute. After Hughes' death in 1974, the company was plagued by lack of quality control, cost overruns, and an Air Force refusal to accept delivery of missiles produced there. Further, accounting abuses caused loss of tax-exempt status, and to settle with the IRS, the Medical Institute put Hughes up for sale in 1984. This was an opportunity for General Motors to gobble it up, but it had already gobbled up Electronic Data Systems a year earlier, and was starting to get top heavy with aerospace-type researchers such as were at Hughes Research Laboratories, part of the deal. GM issued GM Class H stock (now worthless along with the rest of GM stock) as part of the deal.

The one bright spot in the deal was the satellite business. GM's earnings began to plunge starting in the 1990's, and eventually it divested itself of the lucrative satellite business in 1996 in order to focus on its automobile business. Direc-TV was at that time a subsidiary of Hughes Electronics which included four other subsidiaries. GM still maintained substantial interest in Hughes.

News Corp. eventually bought Hughes Electronics after substantial portions of the company were unloaded by GM. In March, 2004 Hughes Electronics changed its name to The Direc-TV Group, Inc. Wheeling and dealing continued throughout the first decade of the 2000's and eventually Direc-TV severed all ties with GM in 2006 by buying back $1.6 billion worth of stock.

In all the spinoffs, stock transactions, mergers, and buyouts associated with this company, the ghost of GM-Hughes lingers on. GM Class H stock shareholders always seemed to get the worst of each deal, and transactions were not made with their best interests in mind. The company still pays no dividends, does not appear to have much of an investor PR department, although it does heavy advertising for its satellite TV service. Zenith sees a long history of disregard for shareholders in both Hughes and GM histories. Some of the same corporate moguls are still hanging around in the company from earlier days, and even News Corp. seems have briefly had a controlling interest. It is hard for us to put our prejudices aside regarding that fact, as vertically-integrated News Corp. is controlled by Rupert Murdoch, and he is famous for Fox News distortions related to anything to do with Democrats, so-called "liberals," or the Obama Administration to the point of ad nauseum. Fox commentators are disgusting at best, and do not represent true professional journalism. Hopefully, News Corp. is well out of the picture at Direc-TV by now having wheeled and dealed their way out of it.

Some researchers have found difficulty classifying it as a true broadcast network industry group member and consider it more of an electronic equipment manufacturer.



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DIRECTV Group, Inc.              (DTV  )    Sector: Technology
2230 East Imperial Highway       Industry: Communication Equipment
El Segundo, CA 90245             Exchange: Nasdaq

The DIRECTV Group, Inc. provides digital television entertainment in
the United States and Latin America. It operates in two segments,
DIRECTV U.S. and DIRECTV Latin America. The DIRECTV U.S. segment
provides direct-to-home (DTH) digital television services, as well
as multi-channel video programming distribution services in the
United States. As of June 30, 2009, the segment had approximately
18.3 million subscribers with access to channels of digital-quality
video pictures and CD-quality audio programming. It distributes
approximately 2,000 digital video and audio channels, including
basic entertainment and music channels, premium movie channels,
regional and specialty sports networks, Spanish and other foreign
language special interest channels, pay-per-view movie and event
choices, and national high-definition television channels. This
segment also provides premium professional and collegiate sports
programming, such as the NFL SUNDAY TICKET package, which allows
subscribers to view the NFL games. The DIRECTV Latin America segment
provides DTH digital television services in Latin America and the
Caribbean, including Puerto Rico. As of June 30, 2009, PanAmericana
and Sky Brazil had approximately 4.17 million subscribers and Sky
Mexico had approximately 1.79 million subscribers. The DIRECTV
Group, Inc. has a strategic partnership agreement with Qwest
Communications International Inc. to offer DIRECTV services to
residential customers. The company was founded in 1977 and is based
in El Segundo, California.

Last Trade:  33.84                     52-Week Range:  33.96 -  18.81
Trade Date:  12-21                     Avg. Volume: 16,264,700 Shares
Index Membership: S&P 500                          Employees:  18,300

Corporate Governance:
DIRECTV Group, Inc.'s Corporate Governance Quotient (CGQ-«) as of
1-Dec-09 is better than 20.2% of S&P 500 companies and 86% of Media
companies.

     EPS:   1.29     Dividend Amount: $  0.00       Yield:         0.00%
                    Ex-Dividend Date: 12-Aug-94   Mkt Cap: $ 32,380,000K
                        Payout Ratio:  0.00%

     Last Split Factor (new for old): N/A      Split Date: N/A

Key Statistics:

Enterprise Value: $ 35,480,000K           Revenue (ttm)  : $ 20,900,000K
                                             Gross Profit: $  9,740,000K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $  5,070,000K

Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm):  1.70           Revenue per Share: $   20.67
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm):   7.00       Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y):  9.70%


P/E Ratio (fwd projected): 15.31      P/E Ratio (current):  26.27

P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected):  1.15  Operating Margin:   11.55%
               Price/Sales Ratio:  1.51     Profit Margin:    6.25%
                Price/Book Value:  7.73        Book Value: $  4.27/sh.

Return on Assets:   8.59%        Net Income Avl to Common: $ 1,300,000K
Return on Equity:  25.95%          Diluted Earnings/Share:     $  1.29
                              Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):        0.80%

Balance Sheet Items :                   Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr)                      (trailing 12 mo.)

       Total Cash: $  3,290,000K        Operating Cash Flow:$  4,290,000K
       Total Debt: $  7,160,000K        Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$  1,950,000K
Total Debt/Equity:         0.00
 Total Cash/Share:      $  3.44
    Current Ratio:         1.28

Share Statistics:                       Stock Price History:

    Shares Outstanding:  956,860K       Stk 52-Week Change:  57.41%
                 Float:  954,980K       S&P 500 52-Wk Chng:  24.17%
  Sh. Short % of Float:     8.80%        50-Day Moving Avg:  30.87
           Short Ratio:     1.90        200-Day Moving Avg:  26.55
% Held by Institutions:    53.70%                     Beta:   0.88
    % Held by Insiders:    57.35%

Analysts' Estimates:               Cur. Qtr   Next Qtr  Cur. Year  Next Year
___________________________          Dec-09     Mar-10     Dec-09     Dec-10

  Average Earnings Estimate           0.42       0.42       1.38       2.21
  Average Revenue  Estimate         5,930M     5,440M    21,510M    23,580M

Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):

Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr): 0.000          EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY): 0.005
  PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected): 0.019                 P/E Ratio (ttm): 0.103
      Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY): 0.000


Annual Income Statements:                          All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          31-Dec-08    31-Dec-07    31-Dec-06

  Total Revenue                         19,693,000   17,246,000   14,755,500
  Cost of Revenue                        9,948,000    8,909,000    7,597,800
  Gross Profit                           9,745,000    8,337,000    7,157,700

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                         0            0            0
  Selling, General & Administrative      4,730,000    4,167,000    3,884,200
  Non-Recurring Expenses                         0            0     -117,700
  Other Operating Expenses               2,320,000    1,684,000    1,034,400
  Total Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Operating Income or Loss               2,695,000    2,486,000    2,356,800

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net          136,000      137,000      187,500
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes       2,831,000    2,623,000    2,544,300
  Interest Expense                         360,000      235,000      245,700
  Income Before Taxes                    2,471,000    2,388,000    2,298,600
  Income Tax Expense                       864,000      943,000      865,500
  Minority Interest                        -92,000      -11,000      -13,000
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s        1,515,000    1,434,000    1,420,100

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                    6,000       17,000            0
  Extraordinary Items                            0            0            0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                   0            0            0
  Other Items                                    0            0            0
  Net Income                             1,521,000    1,451,000    1,420,100

  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts            0            0            0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shares      1,521,000    1,451,000    1,420,100


Quarterly Income Statements:                           All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                    30-Sep-09   30-Jun-09   31-Mar-09   31-Dec-08

  Total Revenue                    5,465,000   5,218,000   4,901,000   5,314,000
  Cost of Revenue                  2,764,000   2,559,000   2,461,000   2,826,000
  Gross Profit                     2,701,000   2,659,000   2,440,000   2,488,000

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                   0           0           0           0
  Selling, General & Adminis.      1,353,000   1,278,000   1,350,000   1,264,000
  Non-Recurring Expenses                   0           0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses           663,000     679,000     666,000     645,000
  Total Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Operating Income or Loss           685,000     702,000     424,000     579,000

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net     19,000      60,000      13,000      43,000
  Earnings Before Int. & Taxes       704,000     762,000     437,000     622,000
  Interest Expense                   101,000     102,000     101,000     112,000
  Income Before Taxes                603,000     660,000     336,000     510,000
  Income Tax Expense                 219,000     242,000     124,000     152,000
  Minority Interest                  -18,000     -22,000           0     -32,000
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s    366,000     396,000     212,000     326,000

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                  0           0           0       6,000
  Extraordinary Items                      0           0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes             0           0           0           0
  Other Items                              0           0           0           0
  Net Income                         366,000     396,000     212,000     332,000

  Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s            0      11,000     -11,000           0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shs     366,000     407,000     201,000     332,000


Annual Balance Sheets:                                All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                        31-Dec-08      31-Dec-07      31-Dec-06
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents              2,005,000      1,083,000      2,499,000
  Short Term Investments                       0         10,000        170,200
  Net Receivables                      1,491,000      1,625,000      1,511,200
  Inventory                              192,000        193,000        147,900
  Other Current Assets                   356,000        235,000        227,300
  Total Current Assets                 4,044,000      3,146,000      4,555,600

  Long-Term Investments                  923,000        838,000        806,700
  Property, Plant & Equipt             6,647,000      5,833,000      4,453,200
  Goodwill                             3,753,000      3,669,000      3,515,000
  Intangible Assets                    1,172,000      1,577,000      1,810,600
  Accumulated Amortization                     0              0              0
  Other Assets                                 0              0              0
  Deferred Long Term Asset Charges             0              0              0
  Total Assets                        16,539,000     15,063,000     15,141,100

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                     3,115,000      1,400,000      2,815,900
  Short/Current Long Term Debt           108,000         48,000        220,400
  Other Current Liabilities              362,000      1,986,000        286,200
  Total Current Liabilities            3,585,000      3,434,000      3,322,500

  Long Term Debt                       6,267,000      3,390,000      3,441,800
  Other Liabilities                    1,085,000      1,146,000      1,089,000
  Deferred LT Liability Charges          646,000        780,000        544,800
  Minority Interest                      103,000         11,000         62,200
  Negative Goodwill                            0              0              0
  Total Liabilities                   11,686,000      8,761,000      8,460,300

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Stocks Options Warrants                0              0              0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock                   0              0              0
  Preferred Stock                              0              0              0
  Common Stock                         8,540,000      9,318,000      9,836,200
  Retained Earnings                   -3,559,000     -2,995,000     -3,106,700
  Treasury Stock                               0              0              0
  Capital Surplus                              0              0              0
  Other Stockholder Equity              -128,000        -21,000        -48,700
  Total Stockholder Equity             4,853,000      6,302,000      6,680,800
  Net Tangible Assets                    -72,000      1,056,000      1,355,200


Quarterly Balance Sheets:                               All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                 30-Sep-09    30-Jun-09    31-Mar-09    31-Dec-08
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents      3,293,000    2,272,000    2,105,000    2,005,000
  Short Term Investments                0            0            0            0
  Net Receivables               1,506,000    1,460,000    1,394,000    1,491,000
  Inventory                       234,000      222,000      198,000      192,000
  Other Current Assets            443,000      328,000      338,000      356,000
  Total Current Assets          5,476,000    4,282,000    4,035,000    4,044,000

  Long-Term Investments           871,000      836,000      923,000      923,000
  Property, Plant & Equipt     4,153,000    6,505,000    6,619,000    6,647,000
  Goodwill                      3,811,000    3,774,000    3,760,000    3,753,000
  Intangible Assets               952,000    1,014,000    1,069,000    1,172,000
  Accumulated Amortization              0            0            0            0
  Other Assets                  2,364,000            0            0            0
  Deferred LT Asset Charges       526,000      393,000      383,000      362,000
  Total Assets                 17,627,000   16,411,000   16,406,000   16,539,000

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable              3,171,000    3,093,000    3,059,000    3,115,000
  Current Portion LT Debt         572,000      183,000      120,000      108,000
  Other Current Liabilities             0            0            0            0
  Total Current Liabilities     4,269,000    3,669,000    3,562,000    3,585,000

  Long Term Debt                6,591,000    5,604,000    5,696,000    6,267,000
  Other Liabilities             1,625,000    1,701,000    1,743,000    1,085,000
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges       723,000      543,000      562,000      646,000
  Minority Interest               325,000      325,000      325,000      103,000
  Negative Goodwill                     0            0            0            0
  Total Liabilities            13,533,000   11,842,000   11,888,000   11,686,000

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, WarrantS               0            0            0            0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock            0            0            0            0
  Preferred Stock                       0            0            0            0
  Common Stock                  7,834,000    8,100,000    8,225,000    8,540,000
  Retained Earnings            -3,665,000   -3,408,000   -3,578,000   -3,559,000
  Treasury Stock                        0            0            0            0
  Capital Surplus                       0            0            0            0
  Other Stockholder Equity        -75,000     -123,000     -129,000     -128,000
  Total Stockholder Equity      4,094,000    4,569,000    4,518,000    4,853,000
  Net Tangible Assets            -669,000     -219,000     -311,000      -72,000


Annual Cash Flow:                                    All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                       31-Dec-08      31-Dec-07      31-Dec-06

  Net Income                          1,521,000        396,000      1,420,100
Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                        2,216,000      1,586,000      1,034,400
  Adjustments to Net Income             255,000        467,000        670,400
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls           95,000       -166,000       -282,800
  Changes in Liabilities                -15,000        327,000        159,800
  Changes in Inventories                 18,000        -45,000        139,000
  Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's              0         25,000         21,100
  Total Cash Flow fr Operations       3,910,000      3,645,000      3,162,000

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures               -2,101,000     -2,692,000     -1,976,100
  Investments                                 0        160,000        836,100
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing        -287,000       -290,000       -396,200
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing      -2,388,000     -2,822,000     -1,536,200

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                              0              0              0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock          -2,909,000     -1,907,000     -2,720,000
  Net Borrowings                      2,301,000       -339,000       -109,600
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing           8,000          7,000          1,500
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing        -600,000     -2,239,000     -2,828,100

  Effect of Exchange Rate Change              0              0              0
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s         922,000              0      1,416,000


Quarterly Cash Flow:                                   All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                   30-Sep-09   30-Jun-09   31-Mar-09   31-Dec-08

  Net Income                        366,000     396,000     212,000     332,000

Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                      653,000     669,000     648,000     616,000
  Adjustments to Net Income         245,000      40,000      79,000      28,000
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls      -48,000     -23,000     101,000     -42,000
  Changes in Liabilities             95,000     -34,000     -88,000     261,000
  Changes in Inventories            -11,000     -23,000           0      55,000
  Changes in Other Oper'g Acts     -160,000      -3,000      44,000    -161,000
  Total Cash Flow f Operations    1,158,000   1,044,000     996,000   1,089,000

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures             -515,000    -494,000    -539,000    -529,000
  Investments                             0           0           0           0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing     -17,000       1,000      -3,000           0
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing    -532,000    -493,000    -542,000    -650,000

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                          0           0           0           0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock        -943,000    -320,000    -317,000  -1,379,000
  Net Borrowings                  1,350,000     -60,000     -46,000     -43,000
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing           0      -4,000       9,000           0
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing     395,000    -384,000    -354,000  -1,422,000

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg             0           0           0           0
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.    1,021,000     167,000     100,000    -983,000


DTV    DIRECTV Group, Inc.                [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
                                          or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28?    1.0659       P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  1.4500       Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    1.8289

Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   1.5232       Inventory/Sales < 5%?      3.0000
Sales < $1 billion?        0.0508       Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.6494

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        1.0000       Long-Term Debt Service:    0.7744
LTD Being Reduced?         1.8000       Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.6415       Working Capital >= 1.5?    1.5592
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.5512       Debt / Assets < 1?         2.6391
Quick Ratio > 1?           1.1242       Inventory Turnover > 1?    0.1161
Shares Out Decreasing?     1.8000       Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion?  0.0463
                                        Profit Margin > 7.5%?      0.8333
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000       EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0000
Enterprise Value/Revenue:  1.1333       EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%?     0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   1.0004       EPS Growth Consistent?     1.8000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0800       Collection < 45 days?      1.6284
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%?   1.4550       Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1?    3.0000
EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0000       Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%?   1.6735

Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          2.2968       % Held by Insiders  < 5%?  0.0872
Beta > 1.25?               0.7040       % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.9311
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.3830       % Held by Institut. > 30?  1.7900
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  1.6114       Short Ratio > 5?           0.3800
Price/Book Value < 3?     -3.0000       Short % of Float > 20?     0.4400
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.5053       Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  2.2000       Positive Free Cash Flow?   1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  1.0000       Price to C.F./sh. Ratio:   1.1861
                                        Cash Flow / Assets >.10?   1.1063

DTV     DIRECTV Group, Inc.             Overall Zenith Index:      1.1009


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Intrinsic Value by Discounted Cash Flow Method:

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Intrinsic Value by Projected Earnings Growth Method:

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Ownership:

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for Direc-TV Group:
Symbol? DTV
Total Months Available:  69
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  26.00   18.81     26.50   21.13     33.69   24.20

RANGE   =  33.69  TO   18.81            Close =  33.04
CHANNEL =  26.00  TO   24.20           Degree =   1
Volatility =   5.45%                    Index =   0
Channel Chart


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Intraday Chart

20 Days:



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Stock Fetcher

Fetcher Fetcher


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Point & Figure Chart

P & F Chart


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Wall Street Analyzer






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Marketspace Chart

Marketspace Chart



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Time Series Forecast

Time Series 1 Time Series 2


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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

Neural Chart Heading
Neural Trades Neural Prediction



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Ultimate Trading Systems

The corresponding trades for the above chart are shown in tabular form below.



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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison - 1
Industry + 1
Bond Issue + 1
Zenith Index - 1
GAAP vs. non-GAAP Earnings < 1%- 1
Cash Flow + 1
Ratios - 1
Market Grader + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF 0
Intrinsic Value DDM - 1
Stock Scout 0
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites + 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity - 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
Moving Average - 1
Right Time Study + 1
Stock Fetcher - 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer + 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart + 1
Neural Network + 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems - 1
Total + 6
Place 890 shares of Direc-TV Group (DTV) on the Active List.