' Zenith Trading & Holding Corporation

12-08-2011: Deluxe Corporation (DLX): Online Bill-Paying Causes Check Writing Decline

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Recommendation

Deluxe Corporation

Deluxe Corporation is known primarily for its check printing operation. It does perform other services for banks and financial institutions. Selecting a stock on the basis of the industry group in which it performs can be tricky. For example, "business services" could include building maitenance which is performing well, or "commercial printing" which is closer to neutral. The latter is highly dependent upon the economy as a whole. Many classifiers will lump ABM (American Building Maintenance) Corp. together with Deluxe Check Printers (DLX) in the same category. DLX is holding up the best of commercial printing companies but our industry group method of finding hot stocks somewhat got distracted by high marks DLX receives from certain research organizations, compared to building maintenance companies.

Check printing for banks is highly competitive, and Deluxe must move away toward other financial services that have more favorable growth prospects. Deluxe has certainly given a lot of thought to this, but at least 45% of revenues are still coming from check printing. We were a little surprised to see regular bank stock checks coming from a number of large banks with whom we do business being printed by Harland and other printers, unlike the past. But perhaps even more importantly, in addition to the competition, check-writing has decreased substantially after the rise of the Internet and use of online bill-paying.

The absence of ease of access to the most recent annual report or chairman's letter for the company on its main website was an issue of curiosity for us (they happily presented quarterly reports), but the information was readily available elsewhere. Perhaps the company wishes to downplay that 2011 was a critical and pivotal year for Deluxe (in their own words) where some refocus is necessary.

If you are looking for high-flyers possibly Zenith is not the place. We like to trade stocks that are relatively stable and more importantly, predictable. Deluxe seems to fit well into that category. It has enough volatility to be tradeable, but is not apt to hit you with a very unpleasant 50% one-day drop when you are long.

Deluxe has a marginal Zenith Index. One of the principal problems there is a low book value and a very high percentage of intangible assets on the balance sheet.

Researchers and analysts like the stock, think it may have a possible imminent breakout. Institutions were selling but have switched to buying overall again in the latest quarter. 



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is consider strong and > 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Deluxe Corp.                     (DLX  )    Sector: Services
3680 Victoria Street North       Industry: Business Services
Shoreview, MN 55126-2966         Exchange: NYSE

Deluxe Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides personalized
printed products, promotional products, and merchandising materials in the
United States, Canada, and Europe. Its Small Business Services segment
offers printed products, including business checks, promotional products,
marketing materials, and related services, as well as retail packaging
supplies and a suite of business services comprising Web design and
hosting, fraud protection, payroll, logo design, search engine marketing,
business networking, and other Web-based services to small businesses.
This segment also offers printed forms, such as billing forms, work
orders, job proposals, purchase orders, invoices, and personnel forms;
computer forms; and stationery, letterhead, envelopes, greeting cards and
labels, and business cards in various formats and ink colors. It sells its
products through mail and the Internet, referrals from financial
institutions and telecommunications clients, independent distributors and
dealers, and sales representatives. The company-Ęs Financial Services
segment provides check programs for personal and business checks, fraud
prevention and monitoring services, customer acquisition campaigns,
marketing communications, regulatory program services, and customer
primarily through direct sales force. Its Direct Checks segment sells
personal and business checks, and related products and services directly
to consumers through direct response marketing and the Internet. Deluxe
also offers online financial management tools that provide banks with
daily access to their financial position and general ledger information.
The company was formerly known as Deluxe Check Printers, Incorporated and
changed its name to Deluxe Corporation in 1988. Deluxe Corporation was
founded in 1915 and is headquartered in Shoreview, Minnesota.

Last Trade:  22.68                     52-Week Range:  29.30 -  17.50
Trade Date:  12-06                     Avg. Volume:    424,311 Shares
Index Membership:                                  Employees:   5,765

Corporate Governance:
    Audit (Low Concern), Board (Low Concern), Compensation (Medium
    Concern), Shareholder Rights (Medium Concern).

     EPS:   2.70     Dividend Amount: $  1.00       Yield:         4.50%
                    Ex-Dividend Date: Nov 17, 20  Mkt Cap: $  1,150,000K
                        Payout Ratio: 37.00%

     Last Split Factor (new for old): N/A      Split Date: N/A

Key Statistics:

Enterprise Value: $  1,900,000K           Revenue (ttm)  : $  1,400,000K
                                             Gross Profit: $    913,820K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $    351,980K

Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm):  1.35           Revenue per Share: $   27.44
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm):   5.39       Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y): -3.40%


P/E Ratio (fwd projected):  7.11      P/E Ratio (current):   8.40

P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected):  1.17  Operating Margin:   19.70%
               Price/Sales Ratio:  0.82     Profit Margin:    9.95%
                Price/Book Value:  4.05        Book Value: $  5.58/sh.

Return on Assets:  12.73%        Net Income Avl to Common: $   138,850K
Return on Equity:  57.47%          Diluted Earnings/Share:     $  2.70
                              Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):      -27.70%

Balance Sheet Items :                   Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr)                      (trailing 12 mo.)

       Total Cash: $     24,960K        Operating Cash Flow:$    213,380K
       Total Debt: $    775,590K        Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$    194,340K
Total Debt/Equity:       273.70
 Total Cash/Share:      $  0.49
    Current Ratio:         0.74

Share Statistics:                       Stock Price History:

    Shares Outstanding:   50,820K       Stk 52-Week Change:   0.18%
                 Float:   50,180K       S&P 500 52-Wk Chng:   2.72%
  Sh. Short % of Float:    10.60%        50-Day Moving Avg:  22.76
           Short Ratio:    11.90        200-Day Moving Avg:  22.50
% Held by Institutions:    76.70%                     Beta:   2.08
    % Held by Insiders:     0.91%

Analysts' Estimates:               Cur. Qtr   Next Qtr  Cur. Year  Next Year
___________________________          Dec 11     Mar 12     Dec 11     Dec 12

  Average Earnings Estimate           0.81       0.78       3.09       3.19
  Average Revenue  Estimate            65M       357M     1,420M     1,440M

Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):

Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr):   3.759      EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY):   2.365
  PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected):   8.592             P/E Ratio (ttm):  50.108
      Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY):   1.671


Annual Income Statements:                          All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          Dec31,2010   Dec31,2009   Dec31,2008

  Total Revenue                          1,402,237    1,344,195    1,468,662
  Cost of Revenue                          488,419      504,782      566,513
  Gross Profit                             913,818      839,413      902,149

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                         0            0            0
  Selling, General & Administrative        624,303      616,496      670,991
  Non-Recurring Expenses                     7,971       32,328       21,924
  Other Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Total Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Operating Income or Loss                 281,544      190,589      209,234

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net           -1,430       10,712        1,363
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes         280,114      201,301      210,597
  Interest Expense                          44,165       46,280       50,421
  Income Before Taxes                      235,949      155,021      160,176
  Income Tax Expense                        82,554       55,656       54,304
  Minority Interest                              0            0            0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s          153,395       99,365      105,872

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                     -771            0       -4,238
  Extraordinary Items                            0            0            0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                   0            0            0
  Other Items                                    0            0            0
  Net Income                               152,624       99,365      101,634

  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts            0            0            0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shares        152,624       99,365      101,634


Quarterly Income Statements:                           All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                   Sep30,2011  Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010

  Total Revenue                      355,144     346,274     349,752     351,488
  Cost of Revenue                    122,638     120,686     120,163     126,683
  Gross Profit                       232,506     225,588     229,589     224,805

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                   0           0           0           0
  Selling, General & Adminis.        162,524     157,527     160,817     157,984
  Non-Recurring Expenses               4,337       4,075       1,427       5,960
  Other Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Operating Income or Loss            65,645      63,986      67,455      60,861

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net       -302         -69      -6,730        -413
  Earnings Before Int. & Taxes        65,343      63,917      60,615      60,448
  Interest Expense                    11,830      12,054      12,038      10,915
  Income Before Taxes                 53,513      51,863      48,577      49,533
  Income Tax Expense                  16,778      16,390      16,021      14,708
  Minority Interest                        0           0           0           0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s     36,735      35,473      32,556      34,825

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                  0           0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                      0           0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes             0           0           0           0
  Other Items                              0           0           0           0
  Net Income                          36,735      35,473      32,556      34,825

  Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s            0           0           0           0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shs      36,735      35,473      32,556      34,825


Annual Balance Sheets:                                All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                       Dec31,2010     Dec31,2009     Dec31,2008
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                 17,383         12,789         41,668
  Short Term Investments                       0              0              0
  Net Receivables                         75,861         76,405         86,397
  Inventory                               21,660         22,122         25,791
  Other Current Assets                    56,333         48,183         13,230
  Total Current Assets                   171,237        159,499        167,086

  Long-Term Investments                   37,410         39,200         36,794
  Property, Plant & Equipt               124,748        126,324        128,105
  Goodwill                               725,937        658,666        653,044
  Intangible Assets                      155,112        145,910        154,081
  Accumulated Amortization                     0              0              0
  Other Assets                            94,247         81,611         59,686
  Deferred Long Term Asset Charges             0              0         20,189
  Total Assets                         1,308,691      1,211,210      1,218,985

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                       204,512        217,048        204,197
  Short/Current Long Term Debt             7,000         26,000         79,440
  Other Current Liabilities                    0              0              0
  Total Current Liabilities              211,512        243,048        283,637

  Long Term Debt                         748,122        742,753        773,896
  Other Liabilities                       76,107         83,399         98,895
  Deferred LT Liability Charges           46,752         24,800          9,491
  Minority Interest                            0              0              0
  Negative Goodwill                            0              0              0
  Total Liabilities                    1,082,493      1,094,000      1,165,919

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Stocks Options Warrants                0              0              0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock                   0              0              0
  Preferred Stock                              0              0              0
  Common Stock                            51,338         51,189         51,131
  Retained Earnings                      161,957         60,768         12,682
  Treasury Stock                               0              0              0
  Capital Surplus                         62,915         58,071         54,207
  Other Stockholder Equity               -50,012        -52,818        -64,954
  Total Stockholder Equity               226,198        117,210         53,066
  Net Tangible Assets                   -654,851       -687,366       -754,059


Quarterly Balance Sheets:                               All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                Sep30,2011   Jun30,2011   Mar31,2011   Dec31,2010
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents          57,632       61,030       81,195       17,383
  Short Term Investments                0            0            0            0
  Net Receivables                  73,736       73,801       70,601       75,861
  Inventory                        22,486       21,359       20,703       21,660
  Other Current Assets             26,602       26,986       20,745       56,333
  Total Current Assets            180,456      183,176      193,244      171,237

  Long-Term Investments            44,768       38,288       37,947       37,410
  Property, Plant & Equipt        120,710      121,018      123,594      124,748
  Goodwill                        776,944      752,289      725,993      725,937
  Intangible Assets               163,710      152,525      145,522      155,112
  Accumulated Amortization              0            0            0            0
  Other Assets                    100,799       87,680       90,318       94,247
  Deferred LT Asset Charges             0            0            0            0
  Total Assets                  1,387,387    1,334,976    1,316,618    1,308,691

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                209,561      195,300      206,756      204,512
  Current Portion LT Debt          33,000       13,000            0        7,000
  Other Current Liabilities             0            0            0            0
  Total Current Liabilities       242,561      208,300      206,756      211,512

  Long Term Debt                  742,592      739,966      739,204      748,122
  Other Liabilities                66,937       71,471       73,637       76,107
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges        51,926       49,596       49,416       46,752
  Minority Interest                     0            0            0            0
  Negative Goodwill                     0            0            0            0
  Total Liabilities             1,104,016    1,069,333    1,069,013    1,082,493

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, WarrantS               0            0            0            0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock            0            0            0            0
  Preferred Stock                       0            0            0            0
  Common Stock                     50,817       51,026       51,395       51,338
  Retained Earnings               228,326      204,323      181,632      161,957
  Treasury Stock                        0            0            0            0
  Capital Surplus                  54,712       57,855       63,031       62,915
  Other Stockholder Equity        -50,484      -47,561      -48,453      -50,012
  Total Stockholder Equity        283,371      265,643      247,605      226,198
  Net Tangible Assets            -657,283     -639,171     -623,910     -654,851


Annual Cash Flow:                                    All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                      Dec31,2010     Dec31,2009     Dec31,2008

  Net Income                            152,624         35,473        101,634
Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                           93,660         92,315         90,578
  Adjustments to Net Income              40,085         48,879         44,985
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls           -3,962         -1,481         10,578
  Changes in Liabilities                -72,114        -38,727        -53,206
  Changes in Inventories                   -470          2,793            321
  Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's              0          2,794          4,592
  Total Cash Flow fr Operations         212,615        206,438        199,482

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                  -43,932        -44,266        -31,865
  Investments                             1,956         -3,667              0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing               0        -33,855       -103,908
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing        -136,170        -81,788       -135,773

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                        -51,435        -51,279        -51,422
  Sale or Purchase of Stock                 268            653        -19,046
  Net Borrowings                        -22,054        -77,987          9,045
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing               0              0         -6,258
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing         -72,541       -128,545        -67,681

  Effect of Exchange Rate Change            690          1,594         -2,053
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s           4,594         -2,801         -6,025


Quarterly Cash Flow:                                   All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                  Sep30,2011  Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010

  Net Income                         36,735      35,473      32,556      34,825

Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                       21,851      23,178      24,170      24,301
  Adjustments to Net Income           4,977       4,558      14,298      18,578
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls       -1,522      -4,828       4,524      -5,851
  Changes in Liabilities             11,257     -11,386     -11,153     -44,450
  Changes in Inventories               -317        -890         746        -176
  Changes in Other Oper'g Acts            0      -2,963      -4,101      14,904
  Total Cash Flow f Operations       67,065      43,142      61,040      42,131

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures               -8,930     -10,874      -8,422     -12,319
  Investments                             0           0           0         -14
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing           0     -36,055          41         528
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing     -65,236     -46,929      -8,381     -11,805

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                    -12,732     -12,782     -12,881     -12,849
  Sale or Purchase of Stock          -4,551     -11,119        -353         189
  Net Borrowings                     22,887      12,920     -22,855     -24,459
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing           0           0           0           0
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing       5,222     -10,569     -38,617     -34,474

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg             0           0           0         130
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.        5,395     -14,226      14,469      -3,708


DLX    Deluxe Corp.                       [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
                                          or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28?    3.0000       P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  1.5100       Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    3.0000

Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   2.8049       Inventory/Sales < 5%?      3.0000
Sales < $1 billion?        0.7131       Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.3807

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.0015       Long-Term Debt Service:    0.3024
LTD Being Reduced?         1.2000       Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.3700       Working Capital >= 1.5?    2.6883
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      0.4302       Debt / Assets < 1?         1.7493
Quick Ratio > 1?           0.5416       Inventory Turnover > 1?    0.1348
Shares Out Decreasing?     1.8000       Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion?  1.3043
                                        Profit Margin > 7.5%?      1.3266
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     1.3333       EPS Annual Growth > 10%?  -0.2800
Enterprise Value/Revenue:  0.9000       EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%?     0.7620
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   0.7700       EPS Growth Consistent?     1.8000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?   -2.7700       Collection < 45 days?      2.2789
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%?  -0.5100       Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1?    3.0000
EPS Annual Growth > 10%?  -0.2800       Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%?   1.5973

Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          2.0171       % Held by Insiders  < 5%?  3.0000
Beta > 1.25?               1.6640       % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.6519
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.0344       % Held by Institut. > 30?  2.5567
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  0.1813       Short Ratio > 5?           2.3800
Price/Book Value < 3?     -0.0500       Short % of Float > 20?     0.5300
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.7488       Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  1.0980       Positive Free Cash Flow?   1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  1.0000       Price to C.F./sh. Ratio:   0.4227
                                        Cash Flow / Assets >.10?   1.4008

DLX     Deluxe Corp.                    Overall Zenith Index:      1.2412


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Ownership:

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The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for Deluxe Corporation:
Symbol? DLX
Total Months Available:  48
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  27.48   21.29     29.30   22.11     24.83   17.50

RANGE   =  29.30  TO   17.50            Close =  22.46
CHANNEL =  24.83  TO   22.11           Degree =   2
Volatility =  12.11%                    Index =   2
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Recommendation

Ins
Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison - 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index + 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings < 1%- 1
Cash Flow + 1
Ratios - 1
Market Grader + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Intrinsic Value DDM + 1
Stock Scout + 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports + 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites + 1
Insider Activity + 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest - 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
Moving Average + 1
Right Time Study - 1
Stock Fetcher - 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart + 1
Neural Network - 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total + 11
Place 1,330 shares of Deluxe Corporation (DLX) on the Active List.