08-13-2011: Depomed, Inc. (DEPO): Seeks Unencumbered Ownership of Products

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Recommendation

Depomed, Inc.

Depotmed (DEPO) is one of the smaller pharmaceutical manufacturers with three main products (sources of revenue). It also licenses technology to other drug companies and receives royalties. With its rather limited pipeline, prospects for this company look steady but not ready to take off for the moon. Shares have been beaten down recently by a rather erratic earnings pattern and guidance for lower earnings. Significant earnings have come from grants from the Government for research on various medications including some to treat nerve pain.

One of our traders has found Furosemide helpful, a drug to relieve excess water retention, and Depotmed holds the rights to that.

Lower projected earnings should not be too worrisome as the stock has a current P/E of below 6 and no debt. Projected earnings for 2012 however, include a windfall. This gives analysts confidence to highly rate the stock. There is a real split between researchers who hate this stock and analysts. Researchers are often late to the party. Executive compensation is certainly not a problem with this company.

The presence of Dimensional Fund Advisors among the major institutional holders we regard as a big plus for this company. Nonetheless institutions (including DFA) are selling.

Placing all the elements of our Decision Matrix together, this didn't exactly turn out to be a strong buy situation, but if one is willing to assume some risk, the company has a strong research program going and ability to turnaround quickly. The difficult economic environment punishing all stocks and grant hopefuls might be offset by America's aging population and the need for medications for which this company has worked out tough deal partnerships with larger drug companies.

To get started, a smaller company seeks partnerships with larger ones to achieve marketing results for its products. This company seems poised to dictate a larger share of unencumbered rewards for its latest products. 



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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is consider strong and > 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

DepoMed Inc.                     (DEPO )    Sector: Healthcare
1360 O'Brien Drive               Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Other
Menlo Park, CA 94025             Exchange: Nasdaq

Depomed, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, develops and
commercializes pharmaceutical products based on its proprietary oral drug
delivery technologies in the United States. It markets GLUMETZA for the
treatment of type 2 diabetes in the United States and Canada; and Proquin
XR for the treatment of uncomplicated urinary tract infection in the
United States. The company-Ęs product candidates include DM-1796 for the
treatment of postherpetic neuralgia, which has completed a Phase III
clinical trial; Serada for the treatment of menopausal hot flashes, which
has completed a Phase III clinical trial; DM-3458 for gastroesophageal
reflux disease; and DM-1992 to treat Parkinson's disease, which has
completed a Phase I clinical trial. It sells its products to wholesalers
and retail pharmacies. The company has collaboration and license
agreements with Solvay Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; PharmaNova, Inc.; Santarus,
Inc.; Merck & Co., Inc.; Covidien, Ltd.; TEVA Pharmaceuticals USA, Inc.;
King Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Esprit Pharma, Inc.; LG Life Sciences, Ltd.;
Rottapharm/Madaus S.r.l.; PharmaNova, Inc.; and Supernus Pharmaceuticals,
Inc. Depomed, Inc. was founded in 1995 and is based in Menlo Park,
California.

Last Trade:   5.14                     52-Week Range:  10.40 -   3.42
Trade Date:  08-11                     Avg. Volume:    964,366 Shares
Index Membership:                                  Employees:      70

Corporate Governance:
    Board (Medium Risk), Audit (Low Risk), Compensation (Medium
    Risk), Shareholder Rights (Low Risk).

     EPS:   1.76     Dividend Amount: $  0.00       Yield:         0.00%
                    Ex-Dividend Date: N/A         Mkt Cap: $    284,560K
                        Payout Ratio:  0.00%

     Last Split Factor (new for old): N/A      Split Date: N/A

Key Statistics:

Enterprise Value: $    182,870K           Revenue (ttm)  : $    145,300K
                                             Gross Profit: $     72,670K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $     56,300K

Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm):  1.26           Revenue per Share: $    2.73
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm):   3.25       Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y):-13.10%

P/E Ratio (fwd projected):171.33      P/E Ratio (current):   2.93

P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected):  0.12  Operating Margin:   38.51%
               Price/Sales Ratio:  1.96     Profit Margin:   66.58%
                Price/Book Value:  2.26        Book Value: $  2.27/sh.

Return on Assets:  26.23%        Net Income Avl to Common: $    96,740K
Return on Equity: 134.78%          Diluted Earnings/Share:     $  1.76
                              Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):        0.00%

Balance Sheet Items :                   Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr)                      (trailing 12 mo.)

       Total Cash: $    113,830K        Operating Cash Flow:$     83,350K
       Total Debt: $        121K        Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$     30,780K
Total Debt/Equity:         0.10
 Total Cash/Share:      $  2.06
    Current Ratio:         4.04

Share Statistics:                       Stock Price History:

    Shares Outstanding:   55,360K       Stk 52-Week Change: 182.22%
                 Float:   41,150K       S&P 500 52-Wk Chng:  18.08%
  Sh. Short % of Float:    12.60%        50-Day Moving Avg:   8.49
           Short Ratio:     6.40        200-Day Moving Avg:   7.83
% Held by Institutions:    53.30%                     Beta:   1.72
    % Held by Insiders:    10.49%

Analysts' Estimates:               Cur. Qtr   Next Qtr  Cur. Year  Next Year
___________________________          Sep 11     Dec 11     Dec 11     Dec 12

  Average Earnings Estimate          -0.03       0.01       1.68       0.03
  Average Revenue  Estimate             3M        29M       155M       128M

Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):

Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr):   5.833      EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY):   0.000
  PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected):   3.684             P/E Ratio (ttm):   3.182
      Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY):   2.000


Annual Income Statements:                          All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          Dec31,2010   Dec31,2009   Dec31,2008

  Total Revenue                             80,764       57,728       34,842
  Cost of Revenue                            8,097        5,257        5,772
  Gross Profit                              72,667       52,471       29,070

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                    20,111       34,298       27,268
  Selling, General & Administrative         48,931       40,245       26,397
  Non-Recurring Expenses                         0            0       -7,500
  Other Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Total Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Operating Income or Loss                   3,625      -22,072      -17,095

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net              839        1,050        2,349
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes           4,464      -21,022      -14,746
  Interest Expense                             572        1,001          555
  Income Before Taxes                        3,892      -22,023      -15,301
  Income Tax Expense                            -4          -15            1
  Minority Interest                              0            0            0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s            3,896      -22,008      -15,302

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                        0            0            0
  Extraordinary Items                            0            0            0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                   0            0            0
  Other Items                                    0            0            0
  Net Income                                 3,896      -22,008      -15,302

  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts            0            0         -541
  Net Income Avail To Common Shares          3,896      -22,008      -15,843


Quarterly Income Statements:                           All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                   Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010  Sep30,2010

  Total Revenue                       21,218      83,101      20,859      20,127
  Cost of Revenue                      2,140       1,635       1,136       2,499
  Gross Profit                        19,078      81,466      19,723      17,628

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development               4,043       5,154       5,751       4,602
  Selling, General & Adminis.         21,030     -22,497      12,759      11,103
  Non-Recurring Expenses                   0           0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Operating Income or Loss            -5,995      98,809       1,213       1,923

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net        357          79         588         101
  Earnings Before Int. & Taxes        -5,638      98,888       1,801       2,024
  Interest Expense                        40          69         101         131
  Income Before Taxes                 -5,678      98,819       1,700       1,893
  Income Tax Expense                       1           2          -8           2
  Minority Interest                        0           0           0           0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s     -5,679      98,817       1,708       1,891

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                  0           0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                      0           0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes             0           0           0           0
  Other Items                              0           0           0           0
  Net Income                          -5,679      98,817       1,708       1,891

  Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s            0           0           0           0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shs      -5,679      98,817       1,708       1,891


Annual Balance Sheets:                                All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                       Dec31,2010     Dec31,2009     Dec31,2008
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                 22,526         26,821         22,127
  Short Term Investments                  47,825         42,922         59,932
  Net Receivables                          6,347          4,933          3,675
  Inventory                                1,571          2,565          2,849
  Other Current Assets                     1,330          1,185          5,404
  Total Current Assets                    79,599         78,426         93,987

  Long-Term Investments                    6,537         12,016              0
  Property, Plant & Equipt                   698            942            900
  Goodwill                                     0              0              0
  Intangible Assets                            0              0              0
  Accumulated Amortization                     0              0              0
  Other Assets                               197            197            197
  Deferred Long Term Asset Charges             0              0              0
  Total Assets                            87,031         91,581         95,084

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                        18,473         15,222         12,848
  Short/Current Long Term Debt             2,170          3,747          3,356
  Other Current Liabilities               12,341         13,233          6,174
  Total Current Liabilities               32,984         32,202         22,378

  Long Term Debt                               0          2,170          5,775
  Other Liabilities                           15            177            569
  Deferred LT Liability Charges           30,926         41,306         33,209
  Minority Interest                            0              0              0
  Negative Goodwill                            0              0              0
  Total Liabilities                       63,925         75,855         61,931

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Stocks Options Warrants                0              0              0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock                   0              0              0
  Preferred Stock                              0              0              0
  Common Stock                           191,343        187,895        183,196
  Retained Earnings                     -168,306       -172,202       -150,194
  Treasury Stock                               0              0              0
  Capital Surplus                              0              0              0
  Other Stockholder Equity                    69             33            151
  Total Stockholder Equity                23,106         15,726         33,153
  Net Tangible Assets                     23,106         15,726         33,153


Quarterly Balance Sheets:                               All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                Jun30,2011   Mar31,2011   Dec31,2010   Sep30,2010
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents          36,311       83,850       22,526       20,225
  Short Term Investments           77,522       51,895       47,825       46,609
  Net Receivables                   7,944       16,778        6,347        9,270
  Inventory                         5,014        3,465        1,571          962
  Other Current Assets              2,918        2,327        1,330        1,958
  Total Current Assets            129,709      158,315       79,599       79,024

  Long-Term Investments            50,377       22,045        6,537        9,574
  Property, Plant & Equipt            994          782          698          686
  Goodwill                              0            0            0            0
  Intangible Assets                     0            0            0            0
  Accumulated Amortization              0            0            0            0
  Other Assets                        181          197          197          197
  Deferred LT Asset Charges             0            0            0            0
  Total Assets                    181,261      181,339       87,031       89,481

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                 23,522       18,788       18,473       15,570
  Current Portion LT Debt             121        1,160        2,170        3,149
  Other Current Liabilities         8,471       12,464       12,341       16,906
  Total Current Liabilities        32,114       32,412       32,984       35,625

  Long Term Debt                        0            0            0            0
  Other Liabilities                     0            0           15           59
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges        23,328       23,954       30,926       33,370
  Minority Interest                     0            0            0            0
  Negative Goodwill                     0            0            0            0
  Total Liabilities                55,442       56,366       63,925       69,054

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, WarrantS               0            0            0            0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock            0            0            0            0
  Preferred Stock                       0            0            0            0
  Common Stock                    200,831      194,404      191,343      190,342
  Retained Earnings               -75,167      -69,489     -168,306     -170,014
  Treasury Stock                        0            0            0            0
  Capital Surplus                       0            0            0            0
  Other Stockholder Equity            155           58           69           99
  Total Stockholder Equity        125,819      124,973       23,106       20,427
  Net Tangible Assets             125,819      124,973       23,106       20,427


Annual Cash Flow:                                    All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                      Dec31,2010     Dec31,2009     Dec31,2008

  Net Income                              3,896         98,817        -15,302
Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                              439            808          1,148
  Adjustments to Net Income               2,031          2,656          2,452
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls           -1,414         -1,259            -51
  Changes in Liabilities                 -8,183         17,139         17,676
  Changes in Inventories                    995            283            415
  Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's              0          4,219         -2,987
  Total Cash Flow fr Operations          -2,381          1,838          3,351

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                     -179           -629           -257
  Investments                               691          4,755         -4,866
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing               0              0              0
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing             512          4,126         -5,123

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                              0              0              0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock               1,417          2,042            441
  Net Borrowings                         -3,844         -3,312          9,084
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing               0              0              0
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing          -2,427         -1,270          9,525

  Effect of Exchange Rate Change              0              0              0
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s          -4,296          4,694          7,753


Quarterly Cash Flow:                                   All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                  Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010  Sep30,2010

  Net Income                         -5,679      98,817       1,708       1,891

Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                          -26         149         108         121
  Adjustments to Net Income           1,165         702         448         476
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls        8,833     -10,430       2,923      -4,810
  Changes in Liabilities                116      -6,548      -4,150       2,405
  Changes in Inventories             -1,549      -1,894        -608         514
  Changes in Other Oper'g Acts            0        -998         627        -391
  Total Cash Flow f Operations        2,286      79,798       1,056         206

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                 -282        -162         -93         -28
  Investments                       -53,742     -19,636       1,834      -1,536
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing           0           0           0           0
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing     -54,024     -19,798       1,741      -1,564

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                          0           0           0           0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock           5,263       2,358         507         311
  Net Borrowings                     -1,064      -1,034      -1,004        -973
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing           0           0           0           0
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing       4,199       1,324        -497        -662

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg             0           0           0           0
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.      -47,539      61,324       2,300      -2,020


DEPO   DepoMed Inc.                       [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
                                          or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28?    3.0000       P/E Ratio > 5?             0.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate: -1.6400       Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    0.1634

Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   1.1735       Inventory/Sales < 5%?      2.5705
Sales < $1 billion?        3.0000       Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.1948

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        3.0000       Long-Term Debt Service:    3.0000
LTD Being Reduced?         1.2000       Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         2.0200       Working Capital >= 1.5?    0.4952
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      3.0000       Debt / Assets < 1?         1.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           1.3781       Inventory Turnover > 1?    0.2000
Shares Out Decreasing?     0.6000       Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion?  3.0000
                                        Profit Margin > 7.5%?      3.0000
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000       EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.2000
Enterprise Value/Revenue:  0.8400       EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%?     0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   0.4643       EPS Growth Consistent?     1.2000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0000       Collection < 45 days?      1.5688
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%?  -1.9650       Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1?    3.0000
EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.2000       Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%?   1.0000

Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          3.0000       % Held by Insiders  < 5%?  0.4766
Beta > 1.25?               1.3760       % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.9381
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.3852       % Held by Institut. > 30?  1.7767
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  1.2054       Short Ratio > 5?           1.2800
Price/Book Value < 3?      1.7400       Short % of Float > 20?     0.6300
Return on Assets > 17%?    1.5429       Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  2.7079       Positive Free Cash Flow?   1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  1.0000       Price to C.F./sh. Ratio:   0.6604
                                        Cash Flow / Assets >.10?   1.6981

DEPO    DepoMed Inc.                    Overall Zenith Index:      1.3690


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The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for Depotmed Inc.:
Symbol? DEPO
Total Months Available: 139
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
   5.60    3.42     10.30    5.40      9.26    4.53

RANGE   =  10.30  TO    3.42            Close =   5.14
CHANNEL =   5.60  TO    5.40           Degree =   0
Volatility =   3.89%                    Index =   0
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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News - 1
Comparison + 1
Industry + 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index + 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings < 1%- 1
Cash Flow + 1
Ratios + 1
Market Grader + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Intrinsic Value DDM 0
Stock Scout - 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites + 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity - 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest - 1
Sentiment - 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
Moving Average - 1
Right Time Study - 1
Stock Fetcher + 1
Point & Figure - 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart - 1
Time Series Chart + 1
Neural Network + 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total + 2
Place 5,680 shares of Depotmed, Inc. (DEPO) on the Active List.