04-30-2020: Capital Southwest Corporation (CSWC): Accidental High Dividend Payer

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Capital Southwest Corporation

Back in the days when Volcker was Federal Reserve Chairman, the decision was made to let interest rates float. It was possible to get 10-year CD's paying 13% interest. With the pandemic, another situation has developed so that even with low interest rates around 1%, it seemed recently possible to earn 13% on your money once again, although not in quite as safe a way. It was described by Cramer as "accidental high dividend payers." As stock prices collapsed, regular dividends as a percentage of that price had their percentages increase. Capital Southwest Corporation is a "BDC" (business development company) which invests in medium-sized or small businesses and according to stock charts, it would seem all BDC's stock prices correlate well with the stock averages. This corporation has no glitzy annual reports or CEO Letters to Shareholders, only conference calls, but reminds us of an advertisement for Ken Fisher Investments, i.e. "We are structured without commissions so that we do well when you do." That's not quite the same, but management here seems reasonably compensated indicating shareholder concern. Also insider buying has been very positive for this company of late, as apparently managers realized the pandemic and stock market collapse would not last forever and the value of their holdings would return or increase. This corporation is one of the worst performers in the BDC group of many competitors, but that enhances the dividend percentage significantly. News on the company is all over the map on dividends, and the current situation of paying out more in dividends than is being taken in revenues cannot be sustained. An eventual dividend cut is anticipated, but even with that, it is for the probable dividend that one would buy the stock.

Some items of financial analysis data sheets have been hard to obtain, but even so, this corporation has a strong Zenith Index and we think the fundamentals do not look bad. The stock is currently trading below book value, although there appears a rush on to drive the share price back up with the rest of the stock market as the dividend percentage shrinks each day.

Researches, including Standard & Poor's are very down on this stock. Analysts are more positive. Insstitutions are dumping the stock. There is a heavy short position in the stock which contributes to an avalanche of buyers when the chart reverses. 



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Bond Issue

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Zenith Index

Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is considered strong and
> 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Capital Southwest Corporation (CSWC)                      Exchange: Nasdaq
Lincoln Center Tower 1
Suite 1300 5400 Lyndon B Johnson            Sector: Financial Services
Dallas, TX 75240                            Industry: Asset Management

Last Trade:  12.22                           52-Week Range:  22.90 -   7.39
Employees: 23                                Avg.Volume:     225,352 Shares

EPS:  0.74    Dividend Amount: $ 1.64          Yield: 13.42%
             Ex-Dividend Date: Jun 12, 2020    Payout Ratio: 207.03

Key Statistics:

    Trailing P/E:  17.71              Forward P/E (est.):   6.41
                                           Target Price:  16.07

Qrtly Stock Price Growth (yoy): -39.03%               Beta:   0.25
Qrtly S&P Index   Growth (yoy):  15.20%        Short Ratio:   0.46%
    Qrtly Revenue Growth (yoy):  52.00%         Shares Out:  18630000
   Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):   0.00%

          Book Value:  16.74                    Debt/Equity:  87.73%
    Price/Book Value:   0.66        Operating Profit Margin:  73.62%
         Price/Sales:   5.41                  Profit Margin:  21.38%
         Market Cap:     244,768,000       Return on Equity:   4.16%
    Enterprise Value:               0      Return on Assets:   5.02%

    Operating Cash Flow:        -94,706
         Free Cash Flow:        -94,706


Annual Income Statement:                          (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                             3/31/2019   3/31/2018   3/31/2017

  Total Revenue                                 48,873      53,192      38,394
  Cost of Revenue                                    0           0           0
  Gross Profit                                       0           0           0

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                             0           0           0
  Selling, General & Administrative              4,800       4,421       4,435
  Total Operating Expenses                      14,945      13,823      12,818

Operating Income or Loss                             0           0           0

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net                    0           0           0
  Interest Expense                              12,178       4,875         989
  Income Before Taxes                           33,928      39,369      25,576
  Income Tax Expense                               870          62       2,102

Net Income from Continuing Op.s                 33,058      39,307      23,474

Non-recurring Events:
  Extraordinary Items                                0           0           0
  Net Income                                    33,058      39,307      23,474

Net Income Avail to Common Shares               33,058      39,307      23,474



Annual Cash Flow Statement:                   (All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                         3/31/2019     3/31/2018     3/31/2017

  Net Income                                33,058        39,307        23,474

Operating Activities:
  Depreciation                               1,393           927           459
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls                   0             0             0
  Changes in Liabilities                   -94,706       -63,863       -89,559
  Changes in Inventories                         0             0             0
  Changes in other Oper'g Acts                 288           993        -7,755

Total Cash Flow f Operations               -94,706       -63,863       -89,559

Investing Activities:
  Capital Exenditures                            0             0             0
  Investments                                    0             0             0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing                  0             0             0

Total Cash Flows from Investing                  0             0             0

Financing Activities:
  Dividends Paid                                 0             0             0
  Sale of Purchase of Stock                      0             0             0
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing                  0             0             0

Total Cash Flows from Financing                  0             0             0

Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.                 2,017       -14,479       -73,583



Annual Balance Sheets:                              (All Numbers in Thousands)
  Period Ending                          3/31/2019     3/31/2018     3/31/2017
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                         0             0             0
  Short Term Investments                          0             0             0
  Net Receivables                                 0             0             0
  Inventory                                       0             0             0
  Other Current Assets                            0             0             0
  Total Current Assets                            0             0             0

  Long-Term Investments                           0             0             0
  Property, Plant & Equipt                        0             0             0
  Goodwill                                        0             0             0
  Intangible Assets                               0             0             0
  Other Assets                                    0             0             0

Total Assets                                551,843       417,490       325,752

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                                0             0             0
  Current Portion LT Debt                         0             0             0
  Other Current Liabilities                       0             0             0
  Total Current Liabilities                       0             0              0

  Long Term Debt                                  0             0             0
  Other Liabilities                               0             0             0

Total Liabilities                           225,880       109,202        40,680

Stockholder Equity:
  Common Stock                                4,961         4,625         4,588
  Retained Earnings                          63,734         6,147        -1,457
  Capital Surplus                                 0             0             0
  Total Stockholder Equity                  325,963       308,288       285,072


Capital Southwest Corporation (CSWC)        [Indices near +3.0, near zero,
                                            or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
P/E Ratio < 28?            1.5810          P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  0.0000          Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    3.0000
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   0.4253          Inventory/Sales < 5%?      1.0000
Sales < $1 Billion?        3.0000          Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.1019

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.4559          Long-Term Debt Service:    3.0000
LTD Being Reduced?         0.0000          Short-Term Debt Service:   0.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         1.0000          Working Capital >= 1.5?    1.0000
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      3.0000          Debt/Assets < 1?           3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           3.0000          Inventory Turnover > 1?    1.0000
Share Equity Increase:     2.1388          Market Cap.< 1.5 Billion?  3.0000
                                           Intangibles < 3% Assets?   3.0000
Income Tests:
Profit Margin < 7.5%?      2.8506          EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.1189
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.1490          EPS 3-yr Growth > 15?      0.1065
Enterprise Value/Revenue   3.0000          EPS Growth Consistent?     0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   3.0000          Collection < 45 days?      1.0000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    0.0000          Gross Pft/Cur. LTD > 1?    3.0000
                                           Borrowing Int. Rate < 6%?  3.0000
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          2.7092          % Held by Insiders < 5%?   0.7267
Beta > 1.25?               0.2000          % Held by Institut. < 50?  1.2136
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?     -1.8069          % Held by Institut. > 30?  1.3733
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500: -0.7506          Short Ratio > 5?           0.0920
Price/Book Value < 3?      3.0000          Short % of Float > 20?     0.0470
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.2953       C   Average Volume > 100,000?  2.2535

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  1.0000          Positive Free Cash Flow?  -1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow? -1.0000          Price to C.F.Ratio < 14?:  3.0000
                                           Cash Flow / Assets > 10%?  1.7162

CSWC   Capital Southwest Corporation       Overall Zenith Index:      1.2859


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Financial Statements

Income Statement:

Balance Sheet:

Cash Flow Statement:



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Average to Current P/E Ratios
              (CSWC)     Capital Southwest Corp.

                               2015    2016    2017    2018    2019

          Annual Earnings:     3.43   -0.35    1.48    2.44    1.98
Average Price During Year:    16.81   14.16   16.56   17.89   21.40

                P/E Ratio:     4.90   40.47   11.19    7.33   10.81

 Average 5-Year P/E Ratio  =  14.94
             Current Price =  13.14

Previous 5 Quarter Earnings:   0.25    0.60    0.38    0.15   -0.38

          Current Annualized (Last Four Quarters) Earnings =   0.15
                                                           ________
                                 Average PE / Current PE =     0.17
                                                           --------

                                      ...a number above 1.00 is good
                                                1.00 or below is bad


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Financial Ratios

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Intrinsic Value by Discounted Cash Flow Method:

Intrinsic Value



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Fair Value Estimator

Fair Value Estimate:

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Projected Earnings

Earnings Estimates



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Analysts' Opinions

Analysts' Opinion 1
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Insider Activity

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Institutional Activity

Institutional Ownership:

institutions 1
Mutual Fund Ownership:

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Sentiment

sentiment

Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.

sentiment sentiment sentiment sentiment



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Short Interest Ratio

As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.

short interest short interest


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Standard & Poor's

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Management's Discussion of Results of Operations Excerpts

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for CAPITAL SOUTHWEST CORPORATION:
Symbol? CSWC
Total Months Available:  25
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  22.90   20.57     22.56   20.60     21.71    7.39

RANGE   =  22.90  TO    7.39            Close =  13.14
CHANNEL =  21.71  TO   20.60           Degree =   1
Volatility =   8.45%                    Index =   0
Channel Chart



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MACD Histogram Divergence

The theory is that connecting the two most recent peaks or valleys of the MACD histogram will signal the direction of the next major move.



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Intraday Chart

2 Days:



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Val Idea

0 out of 7 favorable, (negative opinion.)

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Time Series Forecast

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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

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Ultimate Trading Systems

2 out of 3 of the ultimate systems favor an upmove.


System Below:
Short term outlook: Positive: Bright Green, Negative: Bright Red
Long term outlook: Postive: Dark Green, Negative: Dark Red.




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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison + 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue + 1
Zenith Index + 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings + 1
Cash Flow + 1
Average to Current P/E - 1
Ratios + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF 0
Fair Value Estimator + 1
Projected Earnings - 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites + 1
Insider Activity + 1
Institutional Activity - 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest - 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
MACD Histogram Divergence + 1
Val Idea - 1
Stock Consultant - 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer + 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart + 1
Neural Network - 1
Stock Options - 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total + 8
Place 2,210 shares of Capital Southwest Corporation (CSWC) on the Active List.