Corporate Webpages Copa Holdings SA
Copa Holdings is a name change from Colombia's second-largest
airline, AeroRepublica. Air traffic in Latin America has been
heavier than in the U.S. providing better load factors. This
airline is one of the most profitable of any airline. It was
originally a spinoff from the failed Pan American Airways and
took flight very shortly after Noriega was deposed in Panama,
and is based in Panama.
Listening to Jim Cramer once again, who often seems to
contradict himself, we caught one of his influencial broadcasts
where he emphasized the price to earnings growth (PEG) ratio as
very important in determining which stock to buy. He was
looking for PEG's lower than one. We decided to apply that
criterion to come up with a list of stocks which were almost
universally rejected by Cramer's Street.Com site. So we
concluded that interpreting his words meant that the PEG was NOT
the most important factor in determining which stock to buy, but
rather given equal attributes in other areas, it could be used
as the deciding factor between two stocks that looked similar in
other respects. Using that criterion, Copa Holdings was the
ONLY stock with a low PEG which Cramer seemed to like, giving it
a "buy" rating. And here again was a contradiction, because Cramer
was death on ALL airlines according to him on some broadcasts, urging
us to stay away from the group. But Jim does seem to favor
emerging markets. Here at Zenith we do not. Stocks which are
based outside the U.S. have much less strict reporting
requirements, and this one failed in many areas in that regard,
so that our usual metrics were often not available to us. In
each case where that happens, we give foreign-based stocks a
negative rating. That was so much true with COPA that the
overall Decision Matrix came out very negative.
The stock looks good by many measures, but higher fuel costs are
punishing all airlines. Institutions are net sellers. Cash
flow appears to be negative. Anything to do with Colombia is
subject to crime and corruption, although the Panama base looks
good. Unavailable is information on executive compensation but
insiders are net sellers consistently. The company is spending
a lot on modernizing its fleet of planes, which constitutes much
of the news. U.S.-based Continental Airlines at one time had a
significant share of interest in the company.
The principal attraction does appear to be net income growth,
although this was down in the latest annual reporting period.
Quarterly reports were unavailable to us (which doesn't mean that
they don't exist), although the company does report monthly traffic
factors to the U.S. SEC.
11-18-2011: Copa Holdings SA (CPA): Latin America's Fastest Growing Airline
(WAIT FOR PAGE TO LOAD COMPLETELY BEFORE LINKS WORK.)
Company Profile
Company History
News
Comparison with Peers
Bond Issue
Zenith Index
Financial Statements
Financial Ratios
Market Grader
Intrinsic Value (Disc. CashFlow)
Intrinsic Value (Proj. Earnings)
Scout Stock Rating
Projected Earnings
Research Reports
Analysts' Opinions
Insider Activity
Institutional Activity
Sentiment
Short Interest
Stock Report
Management's Discussion
Moving Average Chart
Right Time Study
Channel Potential
Intraday Chart
Stock Fetcher
Point & Figure Chart
Wall Street Analyzer
Marketspace Chart
Time Series Forecast
Neural Network Prediction
Stock Options
Ultimate Trading Systems
Recommendation
Corporate Wepages
Company Profile |
Company History |
News |
Comparison |
Similar Companies Performance:
Bond Issue |
Zenith Index |
Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is consider strong and > 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.
Copa Holdings SA (CPA ) Sector: Services
Boulevard Costa del Este Avenid Industry: Regional Airlines
Urbanizaci Exchange: NYSE
Panama City, Panama
Copa Holdings, S. A., through its subsidiaries, provides airline passenger
and cargo services. The company offers air transportation services for
leisure and business travelers; and cargo, which include freight, courier,
and mail service. It provides 156 daily scheduled flights for 45
destinations in 24 countries in North, Central, and South America; and the
Caribbean. As of December 31, 2009, the company operated a fleet of 42
aircraft consisting of 29 modern Boeing 737-Next Generation aircraft; and
13 Embraer 190 aircraft. It has a strategic alliance with Continental
Airlines, Inc. Copa Holdings, S.A. was founded in 1947 and is based in
Panama City, Panama.
Last Trade: 62.37 52-Week Range: 72.86 - 49.54
Trade Date: 11-17 Avg. Volume: 348,929 Shares
Index Membership: Employees: 5,389
Corporate Governance:
EPS: 7.42 Dividend Amount: $ 1.64 Yield: 2.60%
Ex-Dividend Date: May 26, 20 Mkt Cap: $ 2,760,000K
Payout Ratio: 36.00%
Last Split Factor (new for old): N/A Split Date: N/A
Key Statistics:
Enterprise Value: $ 3,390,000K Revenue (ttm) : $ 1,740,000K
Gross Profit: $ 707,130K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $ 466,240K
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm): 1.94 Revenue per Share: $ 39.43
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm): 7.26 Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y): 31.70%
P/E Ratio (fwd projected): 8.44 P/E Ratio (current): 8.41
P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected): 0.62 Operating Margin: 22.62%
Price/Sales Ratio: 1.60 Profit Margin: 18.81%
Price/Book Value: 2.23 Book Value: $ 28.21/sh.
Return on Assets: 9.52% Net Income Avl to Common: $ 327,840K
Return on Equity: 29.91% Diluted Earnings/Share: $ 7.42
Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy): 10.00%
Balance Sheet Items : Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr) (trailing 12 mo.)
Total Cash: $ 445,850K Operating Cash Flow:$ 0K
Total Debt: $ 1,050,000K Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$ 0K
Total Debt/Equity: 84.22
Total Cash/Share: $ 10.07
Current Ratio: 1.06
Share Statistics: Stock Price History:
Shares Outstanding: 44,280K Stk 52-Week Change: 10.82%
Float: 33,010K S&P 500 52-Wk Chng: 1.37%
Sh. Short % of Float: 0.70% 50-Day Moving Avg: 65.94
Short Ratio: 0.60 200-Day Moving Avg: 65.27
% Held by Institutions: 101.40% Beta: 1.03
% Held by Insiders: 11.74%
Analysts' Estimates: Cur. Qtr Next Qtr Cur. Year Next Year
___________________________ Dec 11 Mar 12 Dec 11 Dec 12
Average Earnings Estimate 1.94 1.96 6.79 7.39
Average Revenue Estimate 88M 497M 1,810M 2,080M
Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):
Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr): -15.000 EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY): -15.000
PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected): 2.500 P/E Ratio (ttm): 2.143
Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY): 3.750
Annual Income Statements: All numbers in thousands)
Period Ending Dec31,2010 Dec31,2009 Dec31,2008
Total Revenue 1,414,806 1,256,076 1,288,789
Cost of Revenue 707,676 622,725 701,782
Gross Profit 707,130 633,351 587,007
Operating Expenses:
Research & Development 0 0 0
Selling, General & Administrative 354,520 342,389 320,125
Non-Recurring Expenses 0 0 0
Other Operating Expenses 62,962 50,876 42,891
Total Operating Expenses 0 0 0
Operating Income or Loss 289,648 240,086 223,991
Income from Continuing Operations:
Total Other Income/Expenses Net 356 68,140 -47,713
Earnings Before Interest & Taxes 290,004 308,226 176,278
Interest Expense 29,981 32,245 40,150
Income Before Taxes 260,023 275,981 136,128
Income Tax Expense 18,966 26,894 17,469
Minority Interest 0 0 0
Net Income from Continuing Op.s 241,057 249,087 118,659
Non-recurring Events:
Discontinued Operations 0 0 0
Extraordinary Items 0 0 0
Effect of Accounting Changes 0 0 0
Other Items 0 0 0
Net Income 241,057 249,087 118,659
Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts 0 0 0
Net Income Avail To Common Shares 241,057 249,087 118,659
Annual Balance Sheets: All Numbers in Thousands
Period Ending Dec31,2010 Dec31,2009 Dec31,2008
Current Assets:
Cash & Cash Equivalents 207,690 262,656 220,808
Short Term Investments 194,913 89,412 176,018
Net Receivables 89,387 80,791 75,201
Inventory 45,982 27,098 22,049
Other Current Assets 56,411 43,065 29,041
Total Current Assets 594,383 503,022 523,117
Long-Term Investments 6,224 6,407 11,145
Property, Plant & Equipt 1,772,528 1,480,172 1,332,516
Goodwill 25,475 23,852 21,732
Intangible Assets 43,465 42,593 38,057
Accumulated Amortization 0 0 0
Other Assets 113,922 105,162 79,544
Deferred Long Term Asset Charges 0 0 0
Total Assets 2,555,997 2,161,208 2,006,111
Current Liabilities:
Accounts Payable 177,366 157,272 143,412
Short/Current Long Term Debt 100,860 94,550 115,833
Other Current Liabilities 219,669 191,794 239,167
Total Current Liabilities 497,895 443,616 498,412
Long Term Debt 888,681 750,971 800,196
Other Liabilities 39,436 31,568 22,782
Deferred LT Liability Charges 20,016 23,920 15,377
Minority Interest 0 0 0
Negative Goodwill 0 0 0
Total Liabilities 1,446,028 1,250,075 1,336,767
Stockholder Equity:
Misc. Stocks Options Warrants 0 0 0
Redeemable Perferred Stock 0 0 0
Preferred Stock 0 0 0
Common Stock 29,757 29,586 29,483
Retained Earnings 1,051,692 858,543 625,711
Treasury Stock 0 0 0
Capital Surplus 26,110 22,196 17,613
Other Stockholder Equity 2,410 808 -3,463
Total Stockholder Equity 1,109,969 911,133 669,344
Net Tangible Assets 1,041,029 844,688 609,555
Annual Cash Flow: All Numbers in Thousands
Period Ending Dec31,2010 Dec31,2009 Dec31,2008
Net Income 241,057 0 118,659
Operating Activites:
Depreciation 62,962 50,876 42,891
Adjustments to Net Income 35,703 5,326 66,982
Changes in Accounts Recv'bls -2,825 4,548 -7,636
Changes in Liabilities -2,633 -23,473 22,384
Changes in Inventories 0 0 0
Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's 0 4,935 -45,175
Total Cash Flow fr Operations 292,801 291,299 198,105
Investing Activities:
Capital Expenditures -191,437 -59,857 -162,479
Investments -105,500 50,409 -107,821
Other Cash Flows fr Investing 0 -150,866 -52,480
Total Cash Flows fr Investing -445,432 -160,314 -322,780
Financing Acitivies:
Dividends Paid -47,908 -16,255 -16,207
Sale or Purchase of Stock 0 0 0
Net Borrowings 143,375 -71,594 75,726
Other Cash Flows fr Financing 0 0 0
Total Cash Flows fr Financing 95,520 -87,849 59,519
Effect of Exchange Rate Change 2,145 -1,288 106
Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s -54,966 41,848 -65,050
CPA Copa Holdings SA [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28? 3.0000 P/E Ratio > 5? 1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate: -0.1400 Forward P/E Ratio < 28? 3.0000
Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3? 1.4375 Inventory/Sales < 5%? 1.5384
Sales < $1 billion? 0.7068 Operating Margin < 7.5%? 0.3316
Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40? 0.0047 Long-Term Debt Service: 1.2490
LTD Being Reduced? 1.0000 Short-Term Debt Service: 3.0000
Current Ratio > 2? 0.5300 Working Capital >= 1.5? 1.0000
Leverage Ratio < 20%? 3.0000 Debt / Assets < 1? 2.8762
Quick Ratio > 1? 1.0000 Inventory Turnover > 1? 1.0000
Shares Out Decreasing? 0.0000 Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion? 0.5435
Profit Margin > 7.5%? 2.5079
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%? 2.3077 EPS Annual Growth > 10%? 3.0000
Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.2933 EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%? 2.4780
Enterprise Value/EBITDA: 1.0371 EPS Growth Consistent? 0.6000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%? 1.0000 Collection < 45 days? 1.9514
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%? 3.0000 Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1? 3.0000
EPS Annual Growth > 10%? 3.0000 Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%? 1.7785
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%? 1.5242 % Held by Insiders < 5%? 0.4259
Beta > 1.25? 0.8240 % Held by Institut. < 50? 0.4931
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA? 0.0322 % Held by Institut. > 30? 3.0000
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500: 0.0913 Short Ratio > 5? 0.1200
Price/Book Value < 3? 1.7700 Short % of Float > 20? 0.0350
Return on Assets > 17%? 0.5600 Average Volume > 100,000? 3.0000
Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F: 1.0000 Positive Free Cash Flow? 0.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow? 0.0000 Price to C.F./sh. Ratio: 0.0000
Cash Flow / Assets >.10? 0.0000
CPA Copa Holdings SA Overall Zenith Index: 1.3065
Financial Statements |
Income Statement:
Balance Sheet:
Cash Flow Statement:
Financial Ratios |
. . . . . . . . . . . . 1 = Highest , 10 = Lowest
Market Grader |
Intrinsic Value (DCF) |
Intrinsic Value by Discounted Cash Flow Method:
Intrinsic Value (PEG) |
Intrinsic Value by Projected Earnings Growth Method:
Stock Scout |
We find "Scout" to be a bit biased toward the high end, so anything under a 6 is considered a negative, 6 and above, positive.
Projected Earnings |
Research Reports |
Analysts' Opinions |
Insider Activity |
Institutional Activity |
Institutional Orders to Buy or Sell:
Sentiment |
Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.
Short Interest Ratio |
As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.
Stock Report |
Management's Discussion of Results of Operations Excerpts |
Moving Average Chart |
Right Time Study |
Channeling Potential |
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility. Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.
Results for Copa Holdings SA:
Symbol? CPA
Total Months Available: 71
Months in Cycle? 4
Months Covered by Periods: 12
Period 1 Period 2 Period 3
H1 L1 H2 L2 H3 L3
59.92 49.54 70.56 49.76 72.86 55.80
RANGE = 72.86 TO 49.54 Close = 63.94
CHANNEL = 59.92 TO 55.80 Degree = 2
Volatility = 6.44% Index = 1
Intraday Chart |
2 Days:
Stock Fetcher |
Point & Figure Chart |
Wall Street Analyzer |
Marketspace Chart |
Time Series Forecast |
Neural Network Prediction |
"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."
Ultimate Trading Systems |
The corresponding trades for the above chart are shown in tabular form below.
Recommendation |
| Factors | Weighted Points |
|---|---|
| News | + 1 |
| Comparison | - 1 |
| Industry | - 1 |
| Bond Issue | 0 |
| Zenith Index | + 1 |
| Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings < 1% | + 1 |
| Cash Flow | - 1 |
| Ratios | + 1 |
| Market Grader | + 1 |
| Intrinsic Value DCF | + 1 |
| Intrinsic Value DDM | + 1 |
| Stock Scout | 0 |
| Projected Earnings | - 1 |
| Research Reports | 0 |
| Analysts | - 1 |
| Executive Perquisites | - 1 |
| Insider Activity | - 1 |
| Institutional Activity | - 1 |
| Management Reporting | - 1 |
| Short Interest | + 1 |
| Sentiment | - 1 |
| Standard & Poor's | - 1 |
| Moving Average | - 1 |
| Right Time Study | + 1 |
| Stock Fetcher | + 1 |
| Point & Figure | - 1 |
| Wall Street Analyzer | + 1 |
| Marketspace Chart | - 1 |
| Time Series Chart | + 1 |
| Neural Network | - 1 |
| Stock Options | - 1 |
| Ultimate Trading Systems | - 1 |
| Total | - 5 |
Place 480 shares of Copa Holdings SA (CPA) on the Active List.
