09-09-2011: Rockwell Collins Inc. (COL): Juggling Military & Civilian Work

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Rockwell Collins Inc.

The name "Rockwell" in Rockwell Collins, Inc. (COL) forms a tangled web. Rockwell Collins is a major aerospace and defense contractor but there is, or was, another very large aerospace and defense contractor, North American Rockwell, so is there any connection? It turns out, there is. Rockwell Collins got its start as the Collins Radio Corporation back in 1933. It is based in Cedar Rapids, IA, not in Southern California which once was the aerospace capital of the world. North American Aviation was a major U.S. aerospace manufacturer responsible for a number of historic aircraft during and after World War II. North American was a subsidiary of General Motors. It created everything from the P-51 Mustang to the XB-70 Valkyrie bomber. North American's assets included Rocketdyne and Atomics International. In 1967 this company merged with Rockwell-Standard to become North American Rockwell, as part of a huge series of aerospace mergers that ultimately led to Boeing owning practically everything. After facing financial difficulties, Collins Radio Co. was purchased by Rockwell International in 1973, after "North American Rockwell" changed its name to "Rockwell International" in the same year. The avionics division of Rockwell International was spun off to become the current Rockwell Collins, Inc. The company no longer markets receivers to the public, but still makes a mechanical filter for commercial use. Rockwell Collins acquired several companies, including Hughes-Avicom's and Sony's in-flight entertainment businesses, Flight Dynamics, Kaiser Systems, Communication Solutions Inc., Airshow Inc., NLX, portions of Evans & Sutherland, TELDIX GmbH, IP Unwired, Anzus Inc., Datapath Inc., SEOS Displays Ltd. and Air Routing International. Today the compoany employs over 19,000 people.

News on Rockwell Collins consists mainly of awards of dozens of U.S. and foreign government contracts, introduction of new products mainly related to air flight applications, and occasional mergers and acquisitions so prominent among aerospace companies. Researchers seem to really like this stock. It has survived hard economic times and government cutbacks in defense and other areas by juggling a balance of government and commercial contracts and applications. 



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Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is consider strong and > 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Rockwell Collins Inc.            (COL  )    Sector: Industrial Goods
400 Collins Road NE              Industry: Aerospace/Defense Products &
Cedar Rapids, IA 52498           Exchange: NYSE
United States 

Rockwell Collins, Inc. engages in the design, production, and support of
communications and aviation electronics for commercial and military
customers worldwide. It operates in two segments, Government Systems and
Commercial Systems. The Government Systems segment provides communication
and electronic systems, products, and services, which include
communications systems and products, military data link systems and
products, navigation systems and products, subsystems for the flight deck,
cockpit display systems, integrated computer systems, and simulation and
training systems, as well as offers maintenance, repair, parts, and
after-sales support services. It offers its products and services for
airborne and surface applications to the U.S. Department of Defense, local
and state governments, other government agencies, civil agencies, defense
contractors and foreign ministries of defense. The Commercial Systems
segment supplies aviation electronics systems, products, and services to
original equipment manufacturers of commercial air transport, business and
regional aircraft, commercial airlines, and fractional interest and other
business aircraft operators. Its products include integrated avionics
systems, integrated cabin electronics systems, communications systems and
products, navigation systems and products, situational awareness and
surveillance systems and products, electro-mechanical systems, and
simulation and training systems. This segment also provides on-board
information management systems and connectivity solutions, airborne and
ground applications and services, and ground infrastructure and services;
and maintenance, repair, parts, and after-sales support services. The
company was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

Last Trade:  47.00                     52-Week Range:  67.29 -  43.82
Trade Date:  09-05                     Avg. Volume:  1,634,730 Shares
Index Membership:                                  Employees:  20,000

Corporate Governance:
    Board (Low Risk), Audit (Low Risk), Compensation (Low
    Risk), Shareholder Rights (High Risk).

     EPS:   3.87     Dividend Amount: $  0.96       Yield:         2.00%
                    Ex-Dividend Date: Aug 11, 20  Mkt Cap: $  7,220,000K
                        Payout Ratio: 25.00%

     Last Split Factor (new for old): N/A      Split Date: N/A

Key Statistics:

Enterprise Value: $  7,540,000K           Revenue (ttm)  : $  4,820,000K
                                             Gross Profit: $  1,290,000K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $  1,000,000K

Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm):  1.57           Revenue per Share: $   31.03
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm):   7.51       Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y): -1.50%


P/E Ratio (fwd projected): 10.42      P/E Ratio (current):  12.14

P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected):  1.19  Operating Margin:   17.84%
               Price/Sales Ratio:  1.56     Profit Margin:   12.65%
                Price/Book Value:  4.51        Book Value: $ 10.84/sh.

Return on Assets:  10.90%        Net Income Avl to Common: $   609,000K
Return on Equity:  37.45%          Diluted Earnings/Share:     $  3.87
                              Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):       11.30%

Balance Sheet Items :                   Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr)                      (trailing 12 mo.)

       Total Cash: $    268,000K        Operating Cash Flow:$    517,000K
       Total Debt: $    584,000K        Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$    198,000K
Total Debt/Equity:        34.95
 Total Cash/Share:      $  1.74
    Current Ratio:         1.91

Share Statistics:                       Stock Price History:

    Shares Outstanding:  153,670K       Stk 52-Week Change: -17.95%
                 Float:  143,000K       S&P 500 52-Wk Chng:   6.29%
  Sh. Short % of Float:     0.00%        50-Day Moving Avg:  50.85
           Short Ratio:     1.80        200-Day Moving Avg:  59.38
% Held by Institutions:    69.30%                     Beta:   1.22
    % Held by Insiders:     0.23%

Analysts' Estimates:               Cur. Qtr   Next Qtr  Cur. Year  Next Year
___________________________          Sep 11     Dec 11     Sep 11     Sep 12

  Average Earnings Estimate           1.13       1.00       4.05       4.51
  Average Revenue  Estimate           310M     1,170M     4,840M     5,140M

Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):

Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr):   2.208      EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY):   0.000
  PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected):   4.818             P/E Ratio (ttm):   2.208
      Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY):   1.656


Annual Income Statements:                          All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          Sep30,2010   Sep30,2009   Sep30,2008

  Total Revenue                          4,665,000    4,470,000    4,769,000
  Cost of Revenue                        3,379,000    3,150,000    3,334,000
  Gross Profit                           1,286,000    1,320,000    1,435,000

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                         0            0            0
  Selling, General & Administrative        478,000      458,000      485,000
  Non-Recurring Expenses                         0            0            0
  Other Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Total Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Operating Income or Loss                 808,000      862,000      950,000

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net           14,000       23,000       24,000
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes         822,000      885,000      974,000
  Interest Expense                          20,000       18,000       21,000
  Income Before Taxes                      802,000      867,000      953,000
  Income Tax Expense                       241,000      273,000      275,000
  Minority Interest                              0            0            0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s          561,000      594,000      678,000

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                        0            0            0
  Extraordinary Items                            0            0            0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                   0            0            0
  Other Items                                    0            0            0
  Net Income                               561,000      594,000      678,000

  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts            0            0            0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shares        561,000      594,000      678,000


Quarterly Income Statements:                           All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                   Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010  Sep30,2010

  Total Revenue                    1,177,000   1,223,000   1,110,000   1,305,000
  Cost of Revenue                    823,000     870,000     795,000     945,000
  Gross Profit                       354,000     353,000     315,000     360,000

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                   0           0           0           0
  Selling, General & Adminis.        131,000     136,000     124,000     132,000
  Non-Recurring Expenses                   0           0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Operating Income or Loss           223,000     217,000     191,000     228,000

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net      6,000       6,000       7,000       1,000
  Earnings Before Int. & Taxes       229,000     223,000     198,000     229,000
  Interest Expense                     5,000       4,000       5,000       5,000
  Income Before Taxes                224,000     219,000     193,000     224,000
  Income Tax Expense                  68,000      69,000      42,000      72,000
  Minority Interest                        0           0           0           0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s    156,000     150,000     151,000     152,000

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations              2,000           0           0      -2,000
  Extraordinary Items                      0           0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes             0           0           0           0
  Other Items                              0           0           0           0
  Net Income                         158,000     150,000     151,000     150,000

  Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s            0           0           0           0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shs     158,000     150,000     151,000     150,000


Annual Balance Sheets:                                All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                       Sep30,2010     Sep30,2009     Sep30,2008
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                435,000        235,000        175,000
  Short Term Investments                       0              0              0
  Net Receivables                      1,153,000      1,067,000      1,089,000
  Inventory                            1,004,000        943,000        970,000
  Other Current Assets                    97,000        117,000        104,000
  Total Current Assets                 2,689,000      2,362,000      2,338,000

  Long-Term Investments                        0              0         80,000
  Property, Plant & Equipt               707,000        719,000        680,000
  Goodwill                               766,000        695,000        609,000
  Intangible Assets                      306,000        269,000        239,000
  Accumulated Amortization                     0              0              0
  Other Assets                           207,000        229,000         54,000
  Deferred Long Term Asset Charges       389,000        371,000        144,000
  Total Assets                         5,064,000      4,645,000      4,144,000

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                     1,186,000      1,131,000        729,000
  Short/Current Long Term Debt            24,000              0        287,000
  Other Current Liabilities              242,000        228,000        724,000
  Total Current Liabilities            1,452,000      1,359,000      1,740,000

  Long Term Debt                         525,000        532,000        228,000
  Other Liabilities                    1,601,000      1,459,000        768,000
  Deferred LT Liability Charges                0              0              0
  Minority Interest                        4,000          3,000              0
  Negative Goodwill                            0              0              0
  Total Liabilities                    3,582,000      3,353,000      2,736,000

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Stocks Options Warrants                0              0              0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock                   0              0              0
  Preferred Stock                              0              0              0
  Common Stock                             2,000          2,000          2,000
  Retained Earnings                    2,816,000      2,444,000      2,058,000
  Treasury Stock                      -1,497,000     -1,469,000     -1,452,000
  Capital Surplus                      1,420,000      1,395,000      1,378,000
  Other Stockholder Equity            -1,259,000     -1,080,000       -578,000
  Total Stockholder Equity             1,482,000      1,292,000      1,408,000
  Net Tangible Assets                    410,000        328,000        560,000


Quarterly Balance Sheets:                               All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                Jun30,2011   Mar31,2011   Dec31,2010   Sep30,2010
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents         268,000      236,000      263,000      435,000
  Short Term Investments                0            0            0            0
  Net Receivables               1,145,000    1,147,000    1,086,000    1,153,000
  Inventory                     1,212,000    1,172,000    1,093,000    1,004,000
  Other Current Assets            129,000       97,000      104,000       97,000
  Total Current Assets          2,754,000    2,652,000    2,546,000    2,689,000

  Long-Term Investments                 0            0            0            0
  Property, Plant & Equipt        729,000      718,000      703,000      707,000
  Goodwill                        787,000      786,000      767,000      766,000
  Intangible Assets               314,000      316,000      318,000      306,000
  Accumulated Amortization              0            0            0            0
  Other Assets                    195,000      198,000      196,000      207,000
  Deferred LT Asset Charges       334,000      350,000      374,000      389,000
  Total Assets                  5,113,000    5,020,000    4,904,000    5,064,000

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable              1,118,000    1,164,000    1,060,000    1,186,000
  Current Portion LT Debt          70,000       28,000       12,000       24,000
  Other Current Liabilities       252,000      248,000      244,000      242,000
  Total Current Liabilities     1,440,000    1,440,000    1,316,000    1,452,000

  Long Term Debt                  514,000      509,000      512,000      525,000
  Other Liabilities             1,488,000    1,494,000    1,597,000    1,601,000
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges             0            0            0            0
  Minority Interest                 4,000        4,000        3,000        4,000
  Negative Goodwill                     0            0            0            0
  Total Liabilities             3,446,000    3,447,000    3,428,000    3,582,000

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, WarrantS               0            0            0            0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock            0            0            0            0
  Preferred Stock                       0            0            0            0
  Common Stock                      2,000        2,000        2,000        2,000
  Retained Earnings             3,153,000    3,041,000    2,930,000    2,816,000
  Treasury Stock               -1,679,000   -1,651,000   -1,615,000   -1,497,000
  Capital Surplus               1,430,000    1,421,000    1,415,000    1,420,000
  Other Stockholder Equity     -1,239,000   -1,240,000   -1,256,000   -1,259,000
  Total Stockholder Equity      1,667,000    1,573,000    1,476,000    1,482,000
  Net Tangible Assets             566,000      471,000      391,000      410,000


Annual Cash Flow:                                    All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                      Sep30,2010     Sep30,2009     Sep30,2008

  Net Income                            561,000        150,000        678,000
Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                          149,000        144,000        129,000
  Adjustments to Net Income              64,000         51,000        143,000
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls          -32,000         39,000        -68,000
  Changes in Liabilities                 78,000       -180,000        -47,000
  Changes in Inventories                -96,000         12,000       -176,000
  Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's              0        -27,000        -39,000
  Total Cash Flow fr Operations         711,000        633,000        620,000

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                 -109,000       -153,000       -171,000
  Investments                           -21,000              0              0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing               0       -149,000       -113,000
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing        -232,000       -302,000       -284,000

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                       -151,000       -152,000       -129,000
  Sale or Purchase of Stock            -145,000       -134,000       -559,000
  Net Borrowings                              0          9,000        287,000
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing               0              0          8,000
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing        -279,000       -275,000       -393,000

  Effect of Exchange Rate Change              0          4,000          1,000
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s         200,000         60,000        -56,000


Quarterly Cash Flow:                                   All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                  Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010  Sep30,2010

  Net Income                        158,000     150,000     151,000     150,000

Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                       35,000      37,000      34,000      39,000
  Adjustments to Net Income          47,000     -59,000      34,000      57,000
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls      -11,000     -64,000      63,000           0
  Changes in Liabilities            -48,000     109,000     -91,000      85,000
  Changes in Inventories            -57,000     -87,000    -101,000     -31,000
  Changes in Other Oper'g Acts            0     -16,000     -33,000      22,000
  Total Cash Flow f Operations      119,000      70,000      57,000     271,000

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures              -38,000     -34,000     -32,000     -26,000
  Investments                             0      18,000           0     -21,000
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing           0     -11,000      -5,000      -2,000
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing     -39,000     -27,000     -37,000     -49,000

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                    -37,000     -37,000     -38,000     -38,000
  Sale or Purchase of Stock         -59,000     -54,000    -145,000     -59,000
  Net Borrowings                     41,000      15,000     -10,000           0
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing           0           0           0           0
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing     -51,000     -73,000    -193,000     -93,000

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg             0           0           0       3,000
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.       32,000     -27,000    -172,000     132,000


COL    Rockwell Collins Inc.              [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
                                          or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28?    2.3064       P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  1.5700       Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    2.6871

Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   1.4744       Inventory/Sales < 5%?      0.2323
Sales < $1 billion?        0.2144       Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.4204

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.0114       Long-Term Debt Service:    2.8229
LTD Being Reduced?         1.8000       Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.9550       Working Capital >= 1.5?    1.0458
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      1.6421       Debt / Assets < 1?         3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           0.9812       Inventory Turnover > 1?    3.0000
Shares Out Decreasing?     1.8000       Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion?  0.2078
                                        Profit Margin > 7.5%?      1.6866
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     3.0000       EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   1.5100
Enterprise Value/Revenue:  1.0467       EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%?     0.6140
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   1.0729       EPS Growth Consistent?     1.2000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    1.1300       Collection < 45 days?      0.4988
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%?  -0.2250       Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1?    3.0000
EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   1.5100       Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%?   2.4936

Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          1.6899       % Held by Insiders  < 5%?  3.0000
Beta > 1.25?               0.9760       % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.7215
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?     -0.5445       % Held by Institut. > 30?  2.3100
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  0.4194       Short Ratio > 5?           0.3600
Price/Book Value < 3?     -0.5100       Short % of Float > 20?     0.0000
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.6412       Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  2.6111       Positive Free Cash Flow?   1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  1.0000       Price to C.F./sh. Ratio:   2.6046
                                        Cash Flow / Assets >.10?   0.3872

COL     Rockwell Collins Inc.           Overall Zenith Index:      1.3675


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deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for Rockwell Collins Inc.:
Symbol? COL
Total Months Available: 122
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  62.25   54.10     67.29   57.87     64.90   43.82

RANGE   =  67.29  TO   43.82            Close =  47.00
CHANNEL =  62.25  TO   57.87           Degree =   2
Volatility =   9.32%                    Index =   1
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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison + 1
Industry + 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index + 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings < 1%- 1
Cash Flow + 1
Ratios + 1
Market Grader - 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Intrinsic Value DDM + 1
Stock Scout + 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports + 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest - 1
Sentiment - 1
Standard & Poor's + 1
Moving Average + 1
Right Time Study - 1
Stock Fetcher - 1
Point & Figure - 1
Wall Street Analyzer + 1
Marketspace Chart - 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network 0
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total + 9
Place 610 shares of Rockwell Collins Inc. (COL) on the Active List.