02-03-2010: Centene Corporation (CNC): Health Insurer or Real Estate Developer?

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Centene Corporation

The healthcare maintenance industry was beaten down recently by fear of government intervention turning it into a "utility-like" industry, highly regulated. As these fears abate, many think healthcare issues are underpriced. Centene is a large healthcare maintenance organization based in St. Louis with operations in and around Missouri. Centene went public in 2002. IPO proceeds were used for substantial acquisitions, making this a growth company. In 2006, the company was hit by class action lawsuits. A loss of potential business in Kansas and other setbacks caused the lawyers to decide transparency was lacking. But lately, all the big news surrounding Centene seems to be concerned with real estate.

Real estate? Regarding a healthcare maintenance organization? Sometimes mayors and even governors will do anything to attract large development to blighted areas. One of the prime examples of the past of which we can think is when Governor James Rhodes of Ohio booted the Public Utilities Commission out of their offices in order to provide temporary office space for the giant American Electric Power while it moved its headquarters from Manhattan to Columbus. Over objections of local property owners, Centene wanted to obtain by eminent domain land in Clayton, a suburb of St. Louis to build its new high rise headquarters. After encountering opposition, Centene shifted its focus to downtown St. Louis to an area known as "Ballpark Village."

Here, also opposition was encountered. One of our traders once sought a job in downtown St. Louis and asked a parking lot attendant where, if he took the job, he should relocate. In what part of town. "Don't go north, said the attendant, the area has had riots and is burned out. Don't go south either, and definitely don't go east." The only direction left seemed to be west toward the airport. Downtown St. Louis has been severely hit by the economy and desperately needs the jobs and development that Centene could offer. To attract this sort of business, government officials will try to make all sorts of concessions, tax breaks, etc. The suburb of Clayton was to the west.

Clayton stepped up its efforts to win Centene back by applying eminent domain, where Missouri laws require an area to be defined as "blighted" in order to apply the law. But parties opposed there continued to apply a lawsuit to stop development. Centene decided to move ahead on development despite the lawsuit.

Eventually a ruling came down that Clayton "was not blighted," and Centene began to lose a lot of money, time, and functionality for its new headquarters site, while other states started trying to woo Centiene away from Missouri.

Ballpark Village in downtown St. Louis eventually won out with offers of $78 million in tax breaks and $250 million in supplemental development funds from state and federal programs designed to increase jobs. There was a rush from firms at the other end of the state in Kansas City to acquire office space leases in Centene's new complex.

Then in yet another turn, focus shifted back to Clayton, as Centene decided it was not coming to Ballpark Village after all. Eminent domain laws in Missouri are tricky and provide a lot of jobs for attornies but few others. All this back-and-forth was costing Centene a lot of money and Centene took a substantial charge for costs involved against earnings, causing us to give it a negative "GAAP" rating. The healthcare end of the business wasn't going that well, either.

The Centene Tower began to rise in Clayton in a much scaled-down version from what was earlier projected. Government tax incentives were much less than what was earlier described here. Centene seemed more or less forced to make an additional public offering diluting share value in order to raise capital.



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Centene Corp.                    (CNC  )    Sector: Healthcare
7711 Carondelet Avenue           Industry: Health Care Plans
Suite 800                        Exchange: NYSE
St. Louis, Missouri.

Centene Corporation operates as a multiline healthcare company in
the United States. It operates through two segments, Medicaid
Managed Care and Specialty Services. The Medicaid Managed Care
segment provides medicaid and medicaid-related health plan coverage
to individuals through government subsidized programs, including
medicaid, the state children-Ęs health insurance program, foster
care, and medicare special needs plans, as well as aged, blind, or
disabled (ABD) program. Its health plans principally provide primary
and specialty physician care, inpatient and outpatient hospital
care, transportation assistance, emergency and urgent care, vision
care, prenatal care, dental care, laboratory and x-ray services,
home health and durable medical equipment, immunizations,
prescriptions and over-the-counter drugs, home health and durable
medical equipment, and behavioral health and substance abuse
services. The Specialty Services segment manages behavioral
healthcare for members via a contracted network of providers;
provides health insurance to individual customers and their
families; implements life and health management programs; offers
long-term care services to the elderly and people with disabilities;
manages vision benefits for members; and administers pharmacy
benefits and processes pharmacy claims. Centene offers its services
through primary and specialty care physicians, hospitals, and
ancillary providers. The company was founded in 1984 and is
headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.

Last Trade:  19.28                     52-Week Range:  22.50 -  15.00
Trade Date:  02-02                     Avg. Volume:    533,866 Shares
Index Membership: S&P 600 SmallCap                 Employees:   3,600

Corporate Governance:
Centene Corp.'s Corporate Governance Quotient (CGQ-«) as of 1-Feb-10
is better than 56.2% of S&P 600 companies and 78.7% of Health Care
Equipment & Services companies.

     EPS:   1.84     Dividend Amount: $  0.00       Yield:         0.00%
                    Ex-Dividend Date: N/A         Mkt Cap: $    875,370K
                        Payout Ratio:  0.00%

     Last Split Factor (new for old): 2:1      Split Date: 20-Dec-04

Key Statistics:

Enterprise Value: $    717,880K           Revenue (ttm)  : $  3,930,000K
                                             Gross Profit: $    667,260K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $    193,810K

Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm):  0.18           Revenue per Share: $   91.40
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm):   3.70       Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y): 21.00%


P/E Ratio (fwd projected): 10.37      P/E Ratio (current):  10.47

P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected):  0.77  Operating Margin:    3.91%
               Price/Sales Ratio:  0.22     Profit Margin:    2.07%
                Price/Book Value:  1.44        Book Value: $ 13.35/sh.

Return on Assets:   6.42%        Net Income Avl to Common: $    85,620K
Return on Equity:  16.28%          Diluted Earnings/Share:     $  1.84
                              Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):       16.50%

Balance Sheet Items :                   Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr)                      (trailing 12 mo.)

       Total Cash: $    434,830K        Operating Cash Flow:$    272,440K
       Total Debt: $    277,330K        Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$    315,360K
Total Debt/Equity:         0.00
 Total Cash/Share:      $  9.58
    Current Ratio:         0.87

Share Statistics:                       Stock Price History:

    Shares Outstanding:   45,400K       Stk 52-Week Change:   5.88%
                 Float:   42,790K       S&P 500 52-Wk Chng:  31.95%
  Sh. Short % of Float:     3.40%        50-Day Moving Avg:  20.84
           Short Ratio:     3.60        200-Day Moving Avg:  19.06
% Held by Institutions:   101.20%                     Beta:   0.88
    % Held by Insiders:     1.85%

Analysts' Estimates:               Cur. Qtr   Next Qtr  Cur. Year  Next Year
___________________________          Dec-09     Mar-10     Dec-09     Dec-10

  Average Earnings Estimate           0.52       0.39       1.92       1.86
  Average Revenue  Estimate         1,100M     1,100M     4,110M     4,540M

Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):

Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr): 0.000          EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY): 0.185
  PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected): 0.412                 P/E Ratio (ttm): 0.131
      Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY): 0.840


Annual Income Statements:                          All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          31-Dec-08    31-Dec-07    31-Dec-06

  Total Revenue                          3,364,515    2,919,292    2,279,020
  Cost of Revenue                        2,697,255    2,465,512    1,880,546
  Gross Profit                             667,260      453,780      398,474

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                         0            0            0
  Selling, General & Administrative        535,699      399,687      346,284
  Non-Recurring Expenses                         0            0       81,098
  Other Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Total Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Operating Income or Loss                 131,561       54,093      -28,908

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net           21,728       25,169       17,892
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes         153,289       79,262      -11,016
  Interest Expense                          16,673       15,626       10,636
  Income Before Taxes                      136,616       63,636      -21,652
  Income Tax Expense                        52,435       22,367       21,977
  Minority Interest                              0            0            0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s           84,181       41,269      -43,629

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                     -684       32,133            0
  Extraordinary Items                            0            0            0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                   0            0            0
  Other Items                                    0            0            0
  Net Income                                83,497       73,402      -43,629

  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts            0            0            0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shares         83,497       73,402      -43,629


Quarterly Income Statements:                           All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                    30-Sep-09   30-Jun-09   31-Mar-09   31-Dec-08

  Total Revenue                    1,038,234   1,039,469     932,435     790,672
  Cost of Revenue                  1,002,690     770,265     755,302     555,969
  Gross Profit                        35,544     269,204     177,133     234,703

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                   0           0           0           0
  Selling, General & Adminis.         -2,466     237,769     146,221     200,590
  Non-Recurring Expenses                   0           0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Operating Income or Loss            38,010      31,435      30,912      34,113

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net      3,750       4,418       3,613       6,194
  Earnings Before Int. & Taxes        41,760      35,853      34,525      40,307
  Interest Expense                     4,064       4,160       3,986       4,237
  Income Before Taxes                 37,696      31,693      30,539      36,070
  Income Tax Expense                  12,426      11,789      10,845      13,726
  Minority Interest                   -2,518           0           0           0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s     22,752      19,904      19,694      22,344

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations             -1,460        -485        -449        -921
  Extraordinary Items                      0           0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes             0           0           0           0
  Other Items                              0           0           0           0
  Net Income                          21,292      19,419      19,245      21,423

  Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s          -24         811        -787           0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shs      21,268      20,230      18,458      21,423


Annual Balance Sheets:                                All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                        31-Dec-08      31-Dec-07      31-Dec-06
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                379,099        268,584        271,047
  Short Term Investments                 109,393         46,269         66,921
  Net Receivables                         92,531         90,072         91,664
  Inventory                                    0              0              0
  Other Current Assets                    85,320         41,414         22,189
  Total Current Assets                   666,343        446,339        451,821

  Long-Term Investments                  332,411        317,041        145,417
  Property, Plant & Equipt               175,858        138,139        110,688
  Goodwill                               163,380        141,030        135,877
  Intangible Assets                       17,575         13,205         16,202
  Accumulated Amortization                     0              0              0
  Other Assets                            95,585         63,368         34,975
  Deferred Long Term Asset Charges             0              0              0
  Total Assets                         1,451,152      1,119,122        894,980

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                       219,566        105,096         72,723
  Short/Current Long Term Debt               255            971            971
  Other Current Liabilities              421,157        380,733        314,257
  Total Current Liabilities              640,978        486,800        387,951

  Long Term Debt                         264,637        206,406        174,646
  Other Liabilities                       44,265         10,869          5,960
  Deferred LT Liability Charges                0              0              0
  Minority Interest                            0              0              0
  Negative Goodwill                            0              0              0
  Total Liabilities                      949,880        704,075        568,557

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Stocks Options Warrants                0              0              0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock                   0              0              0
  Preferred Stock                              0              0              0
  Common Stock                                43             44             44
  Retained Earnings                      275,236        193,310        117,039
  Treasury Stock                               0              0              0
  Capital Surplus                        222,841        221,693        209,340
  Other Stockholder Equity                 3,152              0              0
  Total Stockholder Equity               501,272        415,047        326,423
  Net Tangible Assets                    320,317        260,812        174,344


Quarterly Balance Sheets:                               All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                 30-Sep-09    30-Jun-09    31-Mar-09    31-Dec-08
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents        393,982      384,499      342,229      379,099
  Short Term Investments           45,692       61,217       75,400      109,393
  Net Receivables                 104,798      157,863      147,899       92,531
  Inventory                             0            0            0            0
  Other Current Assets             69,586       82,185       71,723       85,320
  Total Current Assets            614,058      685,764      637,251      666,343

  Long-Term Investments           486,889      394,395      422,873      332,411
  Property, Plant & Equipt       209,920      194,277      176,719      175,858
  Goodwill                        219,100      218,121      218,216      163,380
  Intangible Assets                23,454       22,714       23,603       17,575
  Accumulated Amortization              0            0            0            0
  Other Assets                     81,593       70,938       74,168       95,585
  Deferred LT Asset Charges       502,867      481,596      466,723      421,157
  Total Assets                  1,635,014    1,586,209    1,552,830    1,451,152

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                204,411      181,605      194,132      219,566
  Current Portion LT Debt             645          243       20,608          255
  Other Current Liabilities             0            0            0            0
  Total Current Liabilities       707,923      663,444      681,463      640,978

  Long Term Debt                  276,687      288,513      269,711      264,637
  Other Liabilities                57,147       49,235       52,134       44,265
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges             0            0            0            0
  Minority Interest                18,996       39,343            0            0
  Negative Goodwill                     0            0            0            0
  Total Liabilities             1,060,753    1,040,535    1,003,308      949,880

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, WarrantS               0            0            0            0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock            0            0            0            0
  Preferred Stock                       0            0            0            0
  Common Stock                         45           45           43           43
  Retained Earnings               335,192      313,924      293,694      275,236
  Treasury Stock                  -46,497      -46,405            0            0
  Capital Surplus                 277,709      273,029      227,327      222,841
  Other Stockholder Equity          7,812        5,081       28,458        3,152
  Total Stockholder Equity        574,261      545,674      549,522      501,272
  Net Tangible Assets             331,707      304,839      307,703      320,317


Annual Cash Flow:                                    All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                       31-Dec-08      31-Dec-07      31-Dec-06

  Net Income                             83,497         19,419        -43,629
Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                           35,414         27,807         20,600
  Adjustments to Net Income              24,148          5,293         96,480
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls           -1,548          1,663        -39,765
  Changes in Liabilities                 85,002         97,606        156,174
  Changes in Inventories                      0              0              0
  Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's         -4,535         -3,531          5,172
  Total Cash Flow fr Operations         221,978        202,240        195,032

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                  -65,156        -53,937        -50,318
  Investments                            -3,388       -149,628        -33,167
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing         -85,377        -21,899        -66,772
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing        -153,921       -225,464       -150,257

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                              0              0              0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock             -18,156         -4,077           -880
  Net Borrowings                         57,514         24,838         77,004
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing           3,100              0          2,790
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing          42,458         20,761         78,914

  Effect of Exchange Rate Change              0              0              0
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s         110,515         -2,463        123,689


Quarterly Cash Flow:                                   All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                   30-Sep-09   30-Jun-09   31-Mar-09   31-Dec-08

  Net Income                         21,292      19,419      19,245      21,423

Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                        9,908      10,659      10,233       9,396
  Adjustments to Net Income           6,632       2,341       7,232      -6,338
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls       22,946      16,069     -39,396      49,249
  Changes in Liabilities             56,836     -16,153      27,998      20,101
  Changes in Inventories                  0           0           0           0
  Changes in Other Oper'g Acts       -5,274       6,366      -1,894       1,633
  Total Cash Flow f Operations      114,858      38,701      23,418      95,464

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures              -12,863     -18,676     -11,157     -12,568
  Investments                       -62,714      30,920     -68,652      12,466
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing     -23,912      -2,430      -5,191      -1,868
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing     -99,489       9,814     -85,000      -1,970

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                     -1,422        -568      -1,181           0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock           6,969      -3,779         483      -4,682
  Net Borrowings                    -11,461      -1,930      25,427      14,919
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing          28          32         -17          84
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing      -5,886      -6,245      24,712      10,321

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg             0           0           0           0
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.        9,483      42,270     103,815           0


CNC    Centene Corp.                      [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
                                          or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28?    2.6743       P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  0.3100       Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    2.7001

Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   3.0000       Inventory/Sales < 5%?      1.0000
Sales < $1 billion?        0.2972       Operating Margin < 7.5%?   1.9182

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        1.0000       Long-Term Debt Service:    1.8942
LTD Being Reduced?         0.6000       Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.4335       Working Capital >= 1.5?    2.3057
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      1.0364       Debt / Assets < 1?         3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           0.7046       Inventory Turnover > 1?    1.0000
Shares Out Decreasing?     1.8000       Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion?  1.7136
                                        Profit Margin > 7.5%?      0.2760
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000       EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0000
Enterprise Value/Revenue:  0.1200       EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%?     0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   0.5291       EPS Growth Consistent?     2.4000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    1.6500       Collection < 45 days?      3.0000
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%?   3.0000       Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1?    3.0000
EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0000       Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%?   1.5663

Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          1.6000       % Held by Insiders  < 5%?  2.7027
Beta > 1.25?               0.7040       % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.4941
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.2770       % Held by Institut. > 30?  3.0000
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  2.1301       Short Ratio > 5?           0.7200
Price/Book Value < 3?      2.5600       Short % of Float > 20?     0.1700
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.3776       Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  0.8639       Positive Free Cash Flow?   1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  1.0000       Price to C.F./sh. Ratio:   0.1983
                                        Cash Flow / Assets >.10?   1.9288

CNC     Centene Corp.                   Overall Zenith Index:      1.4265


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The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for cnc:
Symbol? CNC
Total Months Available:  75
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  22.50   15.00     20.89   16.89     22.22   17.25

RANGE   =  22.50  TO   15.00            Close =  19.28
CHANNEL =  20.89  TO   17.25           Degree =   5
Volatility =  18.88%                    Index =   9
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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison + 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue + 1
Zenith Index + 1
GAAP vs. non-GAAP Earnings < 1%- 1
Cash Flow + 1
Ratios + 1
Market Grader + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Intrinsic Value DDM + 1
Stock Scout + 1
Projected Earnings - 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts - 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity - 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest + 1
Sentiment - 1
Standard & Poor's + 1
Moving Average - 1
Right Time Study - 1
Stock Fetcher + 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart - 1
Time Series Chart + 1
Neural Network - 1
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total + 4
Place 1,550 shares of Centene Corporation (CNC) on the Active List.