09/16/2009: Cerner Corporation (CERN): Provides e-Hospitals with Medical Records and Financial Systems

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Cerner Corporation

By "e-hospitals," we don't mean the accepted definition of on-line diagnostic websites. Rather, we mean hospitals which are electronically up-to-date with efficient medical records systems, billing procedures, and the like. This is one of the cornerstones of proposed improvements to reduce costs in healthcare reform.

Cerner Corp. might be classified as in the healthcare industry or in the software industry, but more appropriately is in the medical information systems group. As such it awaits improvements in efficiencies in America's healthcare system, as well as those of other countries like Britain, Australia, and Saudi Arabia, as it operates in 5 continents. It eagerly awaits stimulus money as well as healthcare reform upon which optimism is based for the stock.

It has a relatively-high p/e for this period but the stock appears stable. Market Grader and Street.Com are two research services in which we place confidence to make selections, but they use very different methodologies. It is therefore often hard to come up with a company that both like, for usually one likes one company while the other dislikes it. It the case of Cerner, both research organizations like the stock, which is how we picked this particular one to review. It is in a strong industry group. We feel the CEO is getting too many stock option perquisites, but the balance sheet is strong.

The company is based in Kansas, City, MO., and provides a lot of employment in that region. It was founded in 1979, and has many hospital, HMO, physician group, pharmacy and health clinic clients. It competes against the giant GE Healthcare, which was once thought to be attempting to take over Cerner. It had a few glitches along the way, like in 1998 when the FDA criticized the company by stating it should not rely on the customer for finding errors in its software.

In 2003, due to increased competition, the company's clients delayed or canceled purchases and its sales force was reorganized with negative effect. A bunch of shareholder class action lawsuits then charged the company with failure to disclose this, as it announced first quarter revenues would be "below expectations."

The company got involved with the internet in providing technical assistance to doctors in patients through information provided over the internet, and was criticized for having virtual health services inadequate to replace the live doctor.

Revenues crossed the $1 billion mark in 2004, and the company has continued to grow and expand since then.



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Cerner Corp.                     (CERN )    Sector: Technology
2800 Rockcreek Parkway           Industry: Healthcare Information Servic
North Kansas City, MO 64117      Exchange: Nasdaq

Cerner Corporation provides healthcare information technology
solutions, healthcare devices, and related services in the Americas,
Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia Pacific region. It offers
Cerner Millennium architecture, which provides access to an
individual-Ęs electronic medical record at the point of care, and
organizes and delivers information for physicians, nurses,
laboratory technicians, pharmacists, front and back-office
professionals, and consumers. The company also provides CareAware
device architecture that connects information from various devices
to the clinician workflow and electronic medical record. In
addition, Cerner Corporation offers Bedrock technology that
automates the implementation and management of the Cerner Millennium
information platform; CernerWorks managed services to manage
technology risks for clients through remote hosting; and Lights On
Network, a surveillance system that identifies system performance
issues in real time. Further, it provides HealtheSM, a health plan
third party administrator service; RxStation medication dispensing
devices; Millennium Lighthouse, a consulting practice that works
with clients to discover relationships among healthcare processes
and still images into electronic medical records. Additionally, the
company offers remote hosting, operational management services, and
disaster recovery services. It serves integrated delivery networks,
physician groups, managed care organizations, hospitals, medical
centers, reference laboratories, home health agencies, blood banks,
imaging centers, pharmacies, government agencies, and public health
organizations. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered

Last Trade:  67.41                     52-Week Range:  67.50 -  30.37
Trade Date:  09-14                     Avg. Volume:    932,574 Shares
Index Membership: S&P 400 MidCap                   Employees:   7,500

Corporate Governance:
Cerner Corp.'s Corporate Governance Quotient (CGQ-«) as of 1-Aug-09
is better than 31.8% of S&P 400 companies and 75.7% of Health Care
Equipment & Services companies.

     EPS:   2.42     Dividend Amount: $  0.00       Yield:         0.00%
                    Ex-Dividend Date: N/A         Mkt Cap: $  5,470,000K
                        Payout Ratio:  0.00%

     Last Split Factor (new for old): 2:1      Split Date: 10-Jan-06

Key Statistics:

Enterprise Value: $  5,180,000K           Revenue (ttm)  : $  1,680,000K
                                             Gross Profit: $  1,380,000K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $    420,850K

Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm):  3.08           Revenue per Share: $   20.91
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm):  12.32       Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y):  0.20%


P/E Ratio (fwd projected): 23.83      P/E Ratio (current):  27.93

P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected):  1.63  Operating Margin:   17.65%
               Price/Sales Ratio:  3.22     Profit Margin:   11.94%
                Price/Book Value:  3.79        Book Value: $ 17.62/sh.

Return on Assets:   9.89%        Net Income Avl to Common: $   201,130K
Return on Equity:  15.17%          Diluted Earnings/Share:     $  2.42
                              Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):       24.00%

Balance Sheet Items :                   Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr)                      (trailing 12 mo.)

       Total Cash: $    384,100K        Operating Cash Flow:$    311,560K
       Total Debt: $    148,420K        Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$     90,000K
Total Debt/Equity:         0.00
 Total Cash/Share:      $  4.74
    Current Ratio:         3.09

Share Statistics:                       Stock Price History:

    Shares Outstanding:   81,040K       Stk 52-Week Change:  43.28%
                 Float:   69,540K       S&P 500 52-Wk Chng: -16.69%
  Sh. Short % of Float:    16.00%        50-Day Moving Avg:  64.13
           Short Ratio:    16.10        200-Day Moving Avg:  54.69
% Held by Institutions:    88.40%                     Beta:   0.97
    % Held by Insiders:    16.18%

Analysts' Estimates:               Cur. Qtr   Next Qtr  Cur. Year  Next Year
___________________________          Sep-09     Dec-09     Dec-09     Dec-10

  Average Earnings Estimate           0.61       0.74       2.42       2.83
  Average Revenue  Estimate           421M       472M     1,690M     1,860M

Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):

Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr): 0.780          EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY): 0.405
  PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected): 0.143                 P/E Ratio (ttm): 0.306
      Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY): 0.003


Annual Income Statements:                          All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          3-Jan-09     29-Dec-07    30-Dec-06

  Total Revenue                          1,676,028    1,519,877    1,378,038
  Cost of Revenue                          296,063      938,066      869,020
  Gross Profit                           1,379,965      581,811      509,018

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                   272,519      270,576      246,970
  Selling, General & Administrative        828,561      107,152       95,881
  Non-Recurring Expenses                         0            0            0
  Other Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Total Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Operating Income or Loss                 278,885      204,083      166,167

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net           13,094         -116       13,951
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes         291,979      203,967      180,118
  Interest Expense                          10,548            0       12,574
  Income Before Taxes                      281,431      203,967      167,544
  Income Tax Expense                        92,773       76,842       57,653
  Minority Interest                              0            0            0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s          188,658      127,125      109,891

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                        0            0            0
  Extraordinary Items                            0            0            0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                   0            0            0
  Other Items                                    0            0            0
  Net Income                               188,658      127,125      109,891

  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts            0            0            0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shares        188,658      127,125      109,891


Quarterly Income Statements:                           All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                    4-Jul-09    4-Apr-09    3-Jan-09    27-Sep-08

  Total Revenue                      403,806     392,322     465,735     422,728
  Cost of Revenue                     66,889      65,531      87,585      72,318
  Gross Profit                       336,917     326,791     378,150     350,410

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development              36,211      64,736     106,996      54,894
  Selling, General & Adminis.        205,671     200,075     207,329     214,568
  Non-Recurring Expenses                   0           0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses            28,879           0     -37,622      13,197
  Total Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Operating Income or Loss            66,156      61,980     101,447      67,751

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net        213         204      11,567         207
  Earnings Before Int. & Taxes        66,369      62,184     113,014      67,958
  Interest Expense                       146         321      10,548           0
  Income Before Taxes                 66,223      61,863     102,466      67,958
  Income Tax Expense                  22,478      21,033      30,926      22,944
  Minority Interest                        0           0           0           0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s     43,745      40,830      71,540      45,014

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                  0           0           0           0
  Extraordinary Items                      0           0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes             0           0           0           0
  Other Items                              0           0           0           0
  Net Income                          43,745      40,830      71,540      45,014

  Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s            0           0           0           0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shs      43,745      40,830      71,540      45,014


Annual Balance Sheets:                                All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                        3-Jan-09       29-Dec-07      30-Dec-06
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                270,494        182,914        162,545
  Short Term Investments                  38,400        161,600        146,239
  Net Receivables                        470,330        401,428        363,847
  Inventory                               10,096         10,744         18,084
  Other Current Assets                    69,553         61,878         55,272
  Total Current Assets                   858,873        818,564        745,987

  Long-Term Investments                  105,300              0              0
  Property, Plant & Equipt               483,399        462,839        357,942
  Goodwill                               146,666        143,924        128,819
  Intangible Assets                      270,736        247,234        242,216
  Accumulated Amortization                     0              0              0
  Other Assets                            16,014         17,395         16,426
  Deferred Long Term Asset Charges             0              0              0
  Total Assets                         1,880,988      1,689,956      1,491,390

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                       203,553        175,061        187,390
  Short/Current Long Term Debt            30,116         14,260         20,242
  Other Current Liabilities              107,554         98,802         93,699
  Total Current Liabilities              341,223        288,123        301,331

  Long Term Debt                         111,370        177,606        187,391
  Other Liabilities                            0              0              0
  Deferred LT Liability Charges          116,100         90,513         83,250
  Minority Interest                        1,286          1,286          1,286
  Negative Goodwill                            0              0              0
  Total Liabilities                      569,979        557,528        573,258

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Stocks Options Warrants                0              0              0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock                   0              0              0
  Preferred Stock                              0              0              0
  Common Stock                               810            801            784
  Retained Earnings                      860,098        671,440        540,153
  Treasury Stock                         -28,002              0              0
  Capital Surplus                        491,080        451,876        376,595
  Other Stockholder Equity               -12,977          8,311            600
  Total Stockholder Equity             1,311,009      1,132,428        918,132
  Net Tangible Assets                    893,607        741,270        547,097


Quarterly Balance Sheets:                               All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                 4-Jul-09     4-Apr-09     3-Jan-09     27-Sep-08
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents        353,918      325,180      270,494      182,258
  Short Term Investments           30,177       21,816       38,400      115,012
  Net Receivables                 450,349      442,524      470,330      439,934
  Inventory                        12,594       12,595       10,096       11,368
  Other Current Assets             90,463       74,297       69,553       71,986
  Total Current Assets            937,501      876,412      858,873      820,558

  Long-Term Investments            99,150       99,600      105,300      101,738
  Property, Plant & Equipt       501,066      498,258      483,399      472,655
  Goodwill                        149,251      148,637      146,666      146,534
  Intangible Assets               272,739      270,548      270,736      269,003
  Accumulated Amortization              0            0            0            0
  Other Assets                     15,184       15,495       16,014       16,436
  Deferred LT Asset Charges       111,935      110,245      107,554      118,854
  Total Assets                  1,974,891    1,908,950    1,880,988    1,826,924

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                166,367      179,590      203,553      161,059
  Current Portion LT Debt          25,477       30,290       30,116       13,814
  Other Current Liabilities             0            0            0            0
  Total Current Liabilities       303,779      320,125      341,223      293,727

  Long Term Debt                  122,945      114,359      111,370      159,985
  Other Liabilities                     0            0            0            0
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges       119,914      118,745      116,100      105,428
  Minority Interest                     0            0        1,286        1,286
  Negative Goodwill                     0            0            0            0
  Total Liabilities               546,638      553,229      569,979      560,426

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, WarrantS               0            0            0            0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock            0            0            0            0
  Preferred Stock                       0            0            0            0
  Common Stock                        818          812          810          810
  Retained Earnings               944,673      900,928      860,098      788,559
  Treasury Stock                  -28,002      -28,002      -28,002       -4,440
  Capital Surplus                 518,949      498,951      491,080      485,609
  Other Stockholder Equity         -8,185      -16,968      -12,977       -4,040
  Total Stockholder Equity      1,428,253    1,355,721    1,311,009    1,266,498
  Net Tangible Assets           1,006,263      936,536      893,607      850,961


Annual Cash Flow:                                    All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                       3-Jan-09       29-Dec-07      30-Dec-06

  Net Income                            188,658         40,830        109,891
Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                          170,466        152,817        125,254
  Adjustments to Net Income              12,997         11,201         23,077
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls         -108,072        -22,802        -38,918
  Changes in Liabilities                 32,030         -4,963         43,827
  Changes in Inventories                 -2,542          5,435         -8,405
  Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's              0          5,752        -22,008
  Total Cash Flow fr Operations         281,802        274,565        232,718

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                 -108,099       -180,723       -131,478
  Investments                            17,510        -13,277         29,122
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing         -80,018        -93,666        -75,188
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing        -170,607       -287,666       -177,544

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                              0              0              0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock             -12,638         29,085         22,714
  Net Borrowings                         -8,182        -22,359        -30,646
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing           9,166         30,357          7,067
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing         -11,654         37,083              0

  Effect of Exchange Rate Change        -11,961         -3,613         -4,821
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s          87,580         20,369         49,488


Quarterly Cash Flow:                                   All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                   4-Jul-09    4-Apr-09    3-Jan-09    27-Sep-08

  Net Income                         43,745      40,830      71,540      45,014

Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                       46,356      42,727      46,735      43,283
  Adjustments to Net Income          10,273       7,835         290       3,072
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls         -130      32,120     -56,713     -41,653
  Changes in Liabilities            -20,074     -19,649      34,784       6,673
  Changes in Inventories                 53      -2,537       1,208        -871
  Changes in Other Oper'g Acts      -12,293      -3,500         339      -7,896
  Total Cash Flow f Operations       67,930      97,826      98,183      47,622

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures              -22,550     -43,173     -34,450     -19,970
  Investments                        -7,390      26,247      76,943    -114,693
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing     -24,313     -23,786     -20,374     -20,330
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing     -54,253     -40,712      22,119    -154,993

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                          0           0           0           0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock           9,948       2,861     -22,578        -502
  Net Borrowings                     -6,861           3         172      -5,760
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing       5,609         952      -4,825       7,479
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing       8,696       3,816     -27,231       1,217

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg         6,365      -6,244      -4,835      -2,983
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.       28,738      54,686      88,236    -109,137


CERN   Cerner Corp.                       [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
                                          or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28?    1.0025       P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  2.8900       Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    1.1750

Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   0.7143       Inventory/Sales < 5%?      3.0000
Sales < $1 billion?        0.5966       Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.4249

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        1.0000       Long-Term Debt Service:    3.0000
LTD Being Reduced?         1.8000       Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         1.5430       Working Capital >= 1.5?    0.6481
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      2.5595       Debt / Assets < 1?         3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           2.6475       Inventory Turnover > 1?    0.0465
Shares Out Decreasing?     1.2000       Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion?  0.2742
                                        Profit Margin > 7.5%?      1.5920
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000       EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0000
Enterprise Value/Revenue:  2.0533       EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%?     0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   1.7596       EPS Growth Consistent?     2.4000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    2.4000       Collection < 45 days?      0.4393
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%?   0.0300       Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1?    3.0000
EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0000       Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%?   1.3147

Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          3.0000       % Held by Insiders  < 5%?  0.3090
Beta > 1.25?               0.7760       % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.5656
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.4201       % Held by Institut. > 30?  2.9467
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500: -1.1127       Short Ratio > 5?           3.0000
Price/Book Value < 3?      0.2100       Short % of Float > 20?     0.8000
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.5818       Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  3.0000       Positive Free Cash Flow?   1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  1.0000       Price to C.F./sh. Ratio:   3.0000
                                        Cash Flow / Assets >.10?   0.4557

CERN    Cerner Corp.                    Overall Zenith Index:      1.4204


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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for Cerner Corporation:
Symbol? CERN
Total Months Available: 116
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  50.00   30.37     58.09   33.38     67.00   53.90

RANGE   =  67.00  TO   30.37            Close =  67.46
CHANNEL =  53.90  TO   50.00           Degree =   1
Volatility =   5.78%                    Index =   0
Channel Chart


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20 Days:

1 Day:

The following table details which MACD signals on the preceding chart are best taken.
Originally, this was set up for a two-day span, but ten days gives a better sample.
Unfortunately, with the 10-day span, the colored lines on the histogram are much
harder to read.  Both spans are shown above.  Red turning into green on the histogram
is a buy and green turning into red is a sell, but with the following conditions.  The
share price must have moved at least 0.2% away from the previous signal price in order
to avoid whipsawing.  More importantly, the +/- magnitude of the MACD (the blue line,
which crosses the red line at signal time) must be greater than the minimum required
magnitude indicated below.  Otherwise, the signal is ignored.  This system does not
work well for Cerner.

CERN   Minimum Magnitude MACD for Action = ± 0.0750

Ticker Day   Time     Hist.      MACD  Sig Line  Act    Price   Profit

CERN   01   07:00   -0.0012    0.1246    0.1258   S     61.95     0.00
CERN   01   07:03    0.0083    0.1326    0.1243   B     62.39    -0.71
CERN   01   07:15   -0.0090    0.1842    0.1932   S     62.60    -0.37
CERN   01   08:35    0.0065   -0.1994   -0.2059   B     61.72     1.03
CERN   01   08:37   -0.0006   -0.2048   -0.2042   S     61.41     0.53
CERN   01   08:38    0.0150   -0.1855   -0.2005   B     61.70     0.06
CERN   01   08:57   -0.0014   -0.0825   -0.0811   S     61.47    -0.32
CERN   01   10:17    0.0040   -0.0817   -0.0857   B     61.16     0.19
CERN   02   06:28   -0.0381   -0.0266    0.0115         61.42     0.27
CERN   02   06:50   -0.0113    0.1360    0.1473   S     62.21     0.27
CERN   02   06:53    0.0031    0.1437    0.1406   B     62.60    -0.36
CERN   03   05:00    0.0050   -0.0393   -0.0443         62.19    -0.32
CERN   03   07:59   -0.0000    0.1009    0.1009   S     62.59    -0.32
CERN   03   08:02    0.0048    0.1051    0.1003   B     62.78    -0.63
CERN   03   08:16   -0.0019    0.1589    0.1608   S     63.07    -0.17
CERN   03   08:35    0.0092    0.1091    0.0999   B     63.45    -0.77
CERN   04   06:30    0.0162    0.0105   -0.0057         63.13    -0.86
CERN   04   09:17   -0.0017    0.1271    0.1287   S     63.75    -0.86
CERN   08   05:40    0.0227    0.0397    0.0169         64.50     1.40
CERN   08   07:26    0.0006    0.1159    0.1153   B     64.33     1.40
CERN   08   07:28   -0.0103    0.1027    0.1130   S     64.15     1.12
CERN   09   06:30    0.0012    0.0266    0.0254         64.00     0.61
CERN   14   06:44    0.0218   -0.1129   -0.1347   B     66.62     0.61
CERN   14   07:29   -0.0017    0.0756    0.0773   S     67.05     1.26
CERN   14   11:18    0.0046    0.0108    0.0061         67.47     0.63


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Stock Fetcher

Fetcher Fetcher


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Point & Figure Chart

P & F Chart


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Wall Street Analyzer




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Marketspace Chart

Marketspace Chart



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Time Series Forecast

Time Series 1 Time Series 2


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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

Neural Chart Heading
Neural Trades Neural Prediction



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Ultimate Trading Systems

The "ultimate systems" are inconclusive, giving no clear confirmed signals.

The corresponding trades for the above chart are shown in tabular form below.



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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison + 1
Industry + 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index + 1
GAAP vs. non-GAAP Earnings < 1%+ 1
Cash Flow + 1
Ratios + 1
Market Grader + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Intrinsic Value DDM - 1
Stock Scout + 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports + 1
Analysts - 1
Executive Perquisites - 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest - 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
Moving Average + 1
Stock Fetcher - 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart + 1
Neural Network 0
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems 0
Total + 12
Place 450 shares of Cerner Corporation (CERN) on the Active List.