Corporate Webpages Cogent Communications Group, Inc.
Washington, D.C.-based Cogent Communications provides internet
access and infrastructure services to large corporations. It
provides fast, dedicated networks. It is in a business which is
extremely competitive. The company is one of the few we have
seen with negative earnings that could still come up with a
positive Zenith Index. Its fundamentals are reasonably strong,
but it has been losing money for a long time, and yet it has
positive free cash flow.
We selected this enigmatic company for review partly because it
briefly showed a positive low p/e ratio for the last twelve
months, even though it is projected to lose money for the
current fiscal year and years to come.
E-Trade was the source of this "pick," after we got tired of some
of the disappointments caused by relying on both Market Grader
and Street.Com to provide suggestions from their often
contradictory lists of "top picks."
The company started off with a "bang" after its IPO, making lots of
acquisitions to gain a worldwide presence with lots of data centers.
As time went on, however, the company seems to have an almost
non-existent public relations department, puts out very few news
releases, and seems to have stabilized with regard to acquisitions.
We think the CEO is paid way too much for the poor performance.
The company seeks to gain advantage over its competitors by using
"internet protocol" networks rather than "circuit-switched" networks.
IP protocol networks are faster.
Cogent is similar to Level 3 Communications, and the two companies
are fierce competitors, not particularly liking each other. There was a
time when Level 3 advertisements on television were common featuring
non other than Sean Connery (or someone with his voice likeness), but
they have not been seen recently as the company is losing money along with
Cogent, not faring well for the business as a whole.
10-28-2009: Cogent Communications Group, Inc. (CCOI): Top of the Internet Food Chain
(WAIT FOR PAGE TO LOAD COMPLETELY BEFORE LINKS WORK.)
Company Profile
Company History
News
Comparison with Peers
Bond Issue
Zenith Index
Financial Statements
Financial Ratios
Market Grader
Intrinsic Value (Disc. CashFlow)
Intrinsic Value (Proj. Earnings)
Scout Stock Rating
Projected Earnings
Research Reports
Analysts' Opinions
Insider Activity
Institutional Activity
Sentiment
Short Interest
Stock Report
Management's Discussion
Moving Average Chart
Channel Potential
Intraday Chart
Stock Fetcher
Point & Figure Chart
Wall Street Analyzer
Marketspace Chart
Time Series Forecast
Neural Network Prediction
Stock Options
Ultimate Trading Systems
Recommendation
Corporate Wepages
Company Profile |
News |
Comparison |
Similar Companies Performance:
Bond Issue |
Zenith Index |
Cogent Communications Group Inc (CCOI ) Sector: Technology
1015 31st Street NW Industry: Diversified Communication Ser
Washington, DC 20007 Exchange: Nasdaq
Cogent Communications Group, Inc., together with subsidiaries,
provides high-speed Internet access and Internet Protocol, or
communications services to small and medium-sized businesses,
communications service providers, and other bandwidth-intensive
organizations. It offers on-net services to the customers in
multi-tenant office buildings, including law firms, financial
services firms, advertising and marketing firms, and other
professional services businesses, as well as to bandwidth-intensive
users, such as universities, Internet service providers, and
commercial content providers. The company also provides Internet
connectivity to customers that are not located in buildings directly
connected to the company-Ęs network. In addition, the company offers
managed modem services, voice services, and point to point private
line services. Further, it operates data centers that allow
customers to co-locate their equipment and access the company-Ęs
network. It markets its services through direct sales personnel and
agents in North America and Europe. The company was founded in 1999
and is headquartered in Washington, D.C.
Last Trade: 11.42 52-Week Range: 12.78 - 3.39
Trade Date: 10-26 Avg. Volume: 352,935 Shares
Index Membership: N/A Employees: 531
Corporate Governance:
Cogent Communications Group Inc.'s Corporate Governance Quotient
(CGQ-«) as of 1-Oct-09 is better than 85.4% of Russell 3000 companies
and 87.2% of Telecommunication Services companies.
EPS: 0.75 Dividend Amount: $ 0.00 Yield: 0.00%
Ex-Dividend Date: N/A Mkt Cap: $ 508,350K
Payout Ratio: 0.00%
Last Split Factor (new for old): 1:20 Split Date: 24-Mar-05
Key Statistics:
Enterprise Value: $ 623,160K Revenue (ttm) : $ 222,590K
Gross Profit: $ 122,430K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $ 44,740K
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm): 2.80 Revenue per Share: $ 5.12
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm): 13.93 Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y): 7.70%
P/E Ratio (fwd projected): 0.00 P/E Ratio (current): 15.25
P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected): 0.00 Operating Margin: -7.00%
Price/Sales Ratio: 2.28 Profit Margin: 14.99%
Price/Book Value: 3.50 Book Value: $ 3.26/sh.
Return on Assets: -2.54% Net Income Avl to Common: $ 33,370K
Return on Equity: 28.49% Diluted Earnings/Share: $ 0.75
Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy): 0.00%
Balance Sheet Items : Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr) (trailing 12 mo.)
Total Cash: $ 60,070K Operating Cash Flow:$ 54,470K
Total Debt: $ 174,870K Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$ 10,940K
Total Debt/Equity: 0.00
Total Cash/Share: $ 1.35
Current Ratio: 2.21
Share Statistics: Stock Price History:
Shares Outstanding: 44,510K Stk 52-Week Change: 199.74%
Float: 41,990K S&P 500 52-Wk Chng: 25.68%
Sh. Short % of Float: 8.30% 50-Day Moving Avg: 11.74
Short Ratio: 12.10 200-Day Moving Avg: 9.35
% Held by Institutions: 87.90% Beta: 1.42
% Held by Insiders: 15.51%
Analysts' Estimates: Cur. Qtr Next Qtr Cur. Year Next Year
___________________________ Sep-09 Dec-09 Dec-09 Dec-10
Average Earnings Estimate -0.08 -0.04 -0.42 -0.08
Average Revenue Estimate 62M 65M 240M 269M
Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):
Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr): 0.000 EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY): 0.000
PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected): 0.000 P/E Ratio (ttm): 0.242
Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY): 0.000
Annual Income Statements: All numbers in thousands)
Period Ending 31-Dec-08 31-Dec-07 31-Dec-06
Total Revenue 215,489 185,663 149,071
Cost of Revenue 93,055 87,756 80,421
Gross Profit 122,434 97,907 68,650
Operating Expenses:
Research & Development 0 0 0
Selling, General & Administrative 80,465 62,187 56,787
Non-Recurring Expenses 1,592 0 0
Other Operating Expenses 62,589 65,638 58,414
Total Operating Expenses 0 0 0
Operating Income or Loss -22,212 -29,918 -46,551
Income from Continuing Operations:
Total Other Income/Expenses Net 61,593 9,119 3,478
Earnings Before Interest & Taxes 39,381 -20,799 -43,073
Interest Expense 11,066 10,226 10,684
Income Before Taxes 28,315 -31,025 -53,757
Income Tax Expense 1,536 0 0
Minority Interest 0 0 0
Net Income from Continuing Op.s 26,779 -31,025 -53,757
Non-recurring Events:
Discontinued Operations 0 0 0
Extraordinary Items 0 0 0
Effect of Accounting Changes 0 0 0
Other Items 0 0 0
Net Income 26,779 -31,025 -53,757
Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts 0 0 0
Net Income Avail To Common Shares 26,779 -31,025 -53,757
Quarterly Income Statements: All numbers in thousands)
Period Ending 30-Jun-09 31-Mar-09 31-Dec-08 30-Sep-08
Total Revenue 57,990 55,076 54,925 54,594
Cost of Revenue 24,558 24,194 23,838 24,139
Gross Profit 33,432 30,882 31,087 30,455
Operating Expenses:
Research & Development 0 0 0 0
Selling, General & Adminis. 19,266 20,806 20,697 20,345
Non-Recurring Expenses 0 0 0 0
Other Operating Expenses 15,271 14,576 14,970 15,494
Total Operating Expenses 0 0 0 0
Operating Income or Loss -1,105 -4,500 -4,580 -5,384
Income from Continuing Operations:
Total Other Income/Expenses Net 456 248 48,731 10,485
Earnings Before Int. & Taxes -649 -4,252 44,151 5,101
Interest Expense 3,888 3,745 2,816 3,028
Income Before Taxes -4,537 -7,997 41,335 2,073
Income Tax Expense -84 163 1,536 0
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0
Net Income from Continuing Op.s -4,453 -8,160 39,799 2,073
Non-recurring Events:
Discontinued Operations 0 0 0 0
Extraordinary Items 0 0 0 0
Effect of Accounting Changes 0 0 0 0
Other Items 0 0 0 0
Net Income -4,453 -8,160 39,799 2,073
Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s 0 0 0 0
Net Income Avail To Common Shs -4,453 -8,160 39,799 2,073
Annual Balance Sheets: All Numbers in Thousands
Period Ending 31-Dec-08 31-Dec-07 31-Dec-06
Current Assets:
Cash & Cash Equivalents 71,291 177,021 42,642
Short Term Investments 62 812 80
Net Receivables 22,174 21,760 20,053
Inventory 0 0 0
Other Current Assets 6,389 6,636 5,339
Total Current Assets 99,916 206,229 68,114
Long-Term Investments 0 0 0
Property, Plant & Equipt 243,939 245,420 263,268
Goodwill 0 0 0
Intangible Assets 0 165 1,150
Accumulated Amortization 0 0 0
Other Assets 3,986 3,511 4,344
Deferred Long Term Asset Charges 0 0 0
Total Assets 347,841 455,325 336,876
Current Liabilities:
Accounts Payable 27,551 16,437 21,710
Short/Current Long Term Debt 5,940 7,717 15,005
Other Current Liabilities 0 9,322 0
Total Current Liabilities 33,491 33,476 36,715
Long Term Debt 188,620 280,724 82,019
Other Liabilities 3,374 2,295 2,510
Deferred LT Liability Charges 0 0 0
Minority Interest 0 0 0
Negative Goodwill 0 0 0
Total Liabilities 225,485 316,495 121,244
Stockholder Equity:
Misc. Stocks Options Warrants 0 0 0
Redeemable Perferred Stock 0 0 0
Preferred Stock 0 0 0
Common Stock 44 48 49
Retained Earnings -269,205 -295,984 -264,959
Treasury Stock 0 0 0
Capital Surplus 390,181 430,402 478,140
Other Stockholder Equity 1,336 4,364 2,402
Total Stockholder Equity 122,356 138,830 215,632
Net Tangible Assets 122,356 138,665 214,482
Quarterly Balance Sheets: All Numbers in Thousands
Period Ending 30-Jun-09 31-Mar-09 31-Dec-08 30-Sep-08
Current Assets:
Cash & Cash Equivalents 60,072 67,177 71,291 109,050
Short Term Investments 0 0 62 162
Net Receivables 20,563 21,391 22,174 21,050
Inventory 0 0 0 0
Other Current Assets 8,226 8,156 6,389 6,430
Total Current Assets 88,861 96,724 99,916 136,692
Long-Term Investments 0 0 0 0
Property, Plant & Equipt 258,229 246,409 243,939 250,749
Goodwill 0 0 0 0
Intangible Assets 0 0 0 0
Accumulated Amortization 0 0 0 0
Other Assets 3,977 3,702 3,986 3,646
Deferred LT Asset Charges 0 0 0 0
Total Assets 351,067 346,835 347,841 391,087
Current Liabilities:
Accounts Payable 27,913 30,198 27,551 27,005
Current Portion LT Debt 12,356 10,444 5,940 5,821
Other Current Liabilities 0 0 0 0
Total Current Liabilities 40,269 40,642 33,491 32,826
Long Term Debt 162,514 158,377 188,620 274,264
Other Liabilities 3,419 3,316 3,374 2,825
Deferred LT Liab. Charges 0 0 0 0
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0
Negative Goodwill 0 0 0 0
Total Liabilities 206,202 202,335 225,485 309,915
Stockholder Equity:
Misc. Options, WarrantS 0 0 0 0
Redeemable Perferred Stock 0 0 0 0
Preferred Stock 0 0 0 0
Common Stock 44 44 44 45
Retained Earnings -328,157 -323,704 -269,205 -309,004
Treasury Stock 0 0 0 0
Capital Surplus 471,891 468,922 390,181 386,891
Other Stockholder Equity 1,087 -762 1,336 3,240
Total Stockholder Equity 144,865 144,500 122,356 81,172
Net Tangible Assets 144,865 144,500 122,356 81,172
Annual Cash Flow: All Numbers in Thousands
Period Ending 31-Dec-08 31-Dec-07 31-Dec-06
Net Income 26,779 -8,160 -53,757
Operating Activites:
Depreciation 63,130 67,214 60,679
Adjustments to Net Income -38,238 7,531 9,969
Changes in Accounts Recv'bls -1,273 -399 -2,758
Changes in Liabilities 3,980 4,985 -8,090
Changes in Inventories 0 0 0
Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's 0 324 -758
Total Cash Flow fr Operations 54,336 48,630 5,285
Investing Activities:
Capital Expenditures -33,510 -30,389 -21,526
Investments 750 -732 1,203
Other Cash Flows fr Investing 0 257 845
Total Cash Flows fr Investing -32,539 -30,864 -19,478
Financing Acitivies:
Dividends Paid 0 0 0
Sale or Purchase of Stock -59,126 -58,846 36,906
Net Borrowings -66,512 175,151 -9,861
Other Cash Flows fr Financing 0 0 0
Total Cash Flows fr Financing -125,638 116,305 0
Effect of Exchange Rate Change -1,889 308 -93
Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s -105,730 134,379 12,759
Quarterly Cash Flow: All Numbers in Thousands
Period Ending 30-Jun-09 31-Mar-09 31-Dec-08 30-Sep-08
Net Income -4,453 -8,160 39,799 2,073
Operating Activites:
Depreciation 0 0 0 0
Adjustments to Net Income 0 0 0 0
Changes in Accounts Recv'bls 0 0 0 0
Changes in Liabilities 0 0 0 0
Changes in Inventories 0 0 0 0
Changes in Other Oper'g Acts 0 0 0 0
Total Cash Flow f Operations 13,031 12,816 10,793 17,828
Investing Activities:
Capital Expenditures -13,378 -11,746 -5,188 -9,515
Investments 0 62 100 0
Other Cash Flows fr Investing -151 0 115 40
Total Cash Flows fr Investing -13,529 -11,684 -4,973 -9,475
Financing Acitivies:
Dividends Paid 0 0 0 0
Sale or Purchase of Stock 11 -722 -1,215 -11,963
Net Borrowings -7,427 -3,925 -40,966 -15,512
Other Cash Flows fr Financing 0 0 0 0
Total Cash Flows fr Financing 0 -599 -1,398 -836
Effect of Exchange Rate Chg 0 0 0 0
Change in Cash & Cash Equiv. 0 0 0 0
CCOI Cogent Communications Group Inc. [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28? 1.8361 P/E Ratio > 5? 1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate: -2.0000 Forward P/E Ratio < 28? 0.0000
Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3? 1.0088 Inventory/Sales < 5%? 1.0000
Sales < $1 billion? 3.0000 Operating Margin < 7.5%? -1.0714
Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40? 1.0000 Long-Term Debt Service: 0.6487
LTD Being Reduced? 1.8000 Short-Term Debt Service: 3.0000
Current Ratio > 2? 1.1035 Working Capital >= 1.5? 0.9063
Leverage Ratio < 20%? 0.4740 Debt / Assets < 1? 1.8441
Quick Ratio > 1? 2.0024 Inventory Turnover > 1? 1.0000
Shares Out Decreasing? 1.2000 Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion? 2.9507
Profit Margin > 7.5%? 1.9986
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%? 0.0000 EPS Annual Growth > 10%? 0.0000
Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.8667 EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%? 0.6000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA: 1.9897 EPS Growth Consistent? 2.4000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%? 0.0000 Collection < 45 days? 1.1981
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%? 1.1550 Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1? 3.0000
EPS Annual Growth > 10%? 0.0000 Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%? 1.4089
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%? 3.0000 % Held by Insiders < 5%? 0.3224
Beta > 1.25? 1.1360 % Held by Institut. < 50? 0.5688
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA? 0.6278 % Held by Institut. > 30? 2.9300
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500: 1.7121 Short Ratio > 5? 2.4200
Price/Book Value < 3? 0.5000 Short % of Float > 20? 0.4150
Return on Assets > 17%? -0.1494 Average Volume > 100,000? 3.0000
Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F: 3.0000 Positive Free Cash Flow? 1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow? 1.0000 Price to C.F./sh. Ratio: 3.0000
Cash Flow / Assets >.10? 0.3116
CCOI Cogent Communications Group I Overall Zenith Index: 1.3493
Financial Statements |
Financial Ratios |
Market Grader |
Intrinsic Value |
Intrinsic Value by Discounted Cash Flow Method:
Intrinsic Value |
Intrinsic Value by Projected Earnings Growth Method:
Stock Scout |
We find "Scout" to be a bit biased toward the high end, so anything under a 6 is considered a negative, 6 and above, positive.
Projected Earnings |
Research Reports |
Analysts' Opinions |
Insider Activity |
Institutional Activity |
Institutional Orders to Buy or Sell:
Sentiment |
Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.
Short Interest Ratio |
As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.
Stock Report |
Management's Discussion of Results of Operations Excerpts |
Moving Average Chart |
Channeling Potential |
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility. Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.
Results for Cogent Communications Group Inc.:
Symbol? CCOI
Total Months Available: 44
Months in Cycle? 4
Months Covered by Periods: 12
Period 1 Period 2 Period 3
H1 L1 H2 L2 H3 L3
7.80 3.39 8.99 5.38 12.78 7.51
RANGE = 12.78 TO 3.39 Close = 11.13
CHANNEL = 7.80 TO 7.51 Degree = 0
Volatility = 2.61% Index = 0
Intraday Chart |
20 Days:
1 Day:
The following table details which MACD signals on the preceding chart are best taken. Originally, this was set up for a two-day span, but ten days gives a better sample. Unfortunately, with the 10-day span, the colored lines on the histogram are much harder to read. Both spans are shown above. Red turning into green on the histogram is a buy and green turning into red is a sell, but with the following conditions. The share price must have moved at least 0.2% away from the previous signal price in order to avoid whipsawing. More importantly, the +/- magnitude of the MACD (the blue line, which crosses the red line at signal time) must be greater than the minimum required magnitude indicated below. Otherwise, the signal is ignored. This system works well for Cogent Communications. CCOI Minimum Magnitude MACD for Action = ± 0.0300 Ticker Day Time Hist. MACD Sig Line Act Price Profit CCOI 19 08:40 -0.0006 0.0579 0.0585 S 12.14 0.00 CCOI 20 06:30 -0.0032 -0.0126 -0.0095 12.10 3.77 CCOI 20 06:58 0.0030 -0.0407 -0.0438 B 11.99 3.77 CCOI 21 06:30 -0.0042 -0.0095 -0.0053 11.95 1.29 CCOI 21 12:19 -0.0005 0.0355 0.0360 S 11.80 1.29 CCOI 21 12:49 0.0016 -0.0585 -0.0601 B 11.48 4.00 CCOI 22 06:30 -0.0078 -0.0071 0.0006 11.43 7.13 CCOI 23 06:58 -0.0003 0.0864 0.0866 S 11.69 7.13 CCOI 23 07:49 0.0017 -0.0476 -0.0494 B 11.37 9.87 CCOI 26 06:30 0.0085 -0.0070 -0.0155 11.18 14.23 CCOI 26 07:21 -0.0019 0.0821 0.0840 S 11.66 14.23 CCOI 26 08:49 0.0041 -0.0797 -0.0838 B 11.18 18.35 CCOI 26 13:00 0.0006 0.0271 0.0264 11.43 20.59
Stock Fetcher |
Point & Figure Chart |
Wall Street Analyzer |
Marketspace Chart |
Time Series Forecast |
Neural Network Prediction |
"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."
Ultimate Trading Systems |
The corresponding trades for the above chart are shown in tabular form below.
Recommendation |
| Factors | Weighted Points |
|---|---|
| News | - 1 |
| Comparison | - 1 |
| Industry | + 1 |
| Bond Issue | + 1 |
| Zenith Index | + 1 |
| GAAP vs. non-GAAP Earnings < 1% | + 1 |
| Cash Flow | + 1 |
| Ratios | - 1 |
| Market Grader | + 1 |
| Intrinsic Value DCF | 0 |
| Intrinsic Value DDM | - 1 |
| Stock Scout | + 1 |
| Projected Earnings | - 1 |
| Research Reports | 0 |
| Analysts | - 1 |
| Executive Perquisites | - 1 |
| Insider Activity | - 1 |
| Institutional Activity | - 1 |
| Management Reporting | + 1 |
| Short Interest | + 1 |
| Sentiment | + 1 |
| Standard & Poor's | - 1 |
| Moving Average | - 1 |
| Stock Fetcher | + 1 |
| Point & Figure | + 1 |
| Wall Street Analyzer | + 1 |
| Marketspace Chart | - 1 |
| Time Series Chart | - 1 |
| Neural Network | - 1 |
| Stock Options | + 1 |
| Ultimate Trading Systems | - 1 |
| Total | - 1 |
Place 2,600 shares of Cogent Communications Group Inc. (CCOI) on the Active List.
