11-10-2009: Calgon Carbon Corporation (CCC): Selling to China Versus Strong Local Protectionism

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Recommendation

Calgon Carbon Corporation

Calgon Carbon Corporation sells "activated" carbon commonly used in many air and water purification systems to absorb contaminants. Industrial uses include water purification as the main use as well as emission control, wastewater treatment, and food processing. It is in an industrial group pollution control which seems out of favor right now but obviously has great potential for the future.

We particularly like this stock even if it didn't get the highest ratings in our decision matrix for the following reasons. It is clearly a channeling stock ("rolling stock") in the middle of its channel range. That would suggest that now might not be the optimum time either to buy or sell it, but one should keep an eye on it for opportunities. The stock lends itself very well to certain oscillatory indicators, especially the MACD, which came up as the best system in Wall St. Analyzer as well as showing strong MACD performance in the "Intraday Chart" section. Other reactive systems such as stochastics or Bollinger Bands are also apt to perform well. We think the key word is "predictable," and that is why we like this stock.

Another unusal feature is the absense of insider selling, very modest executive salaries and benefits, and the suggestion of strong corporate governance. Analysts like it very much.

The company was once a subsidiary of Merck Inc., which poured money into developing the company. In the 1980's it was spun off through a management's leveraged buyout. It is possible Merck under-estimated the value of the company. The company's business has seen its ups and downs, as reflected in some gyrating free cash flow figures, but future prospects seem to look bright under current management.

We see this as a very good stock for traders interested in moderate to short term swings, but some patience is required.

The company on the one hand appears to be hopeful of developing significant revenues from operations in China, and on the other is protected from competition by strong tariffs on imported reactivated carbons for its products in this country. The latter are due to suspicion of dumping practices in this country by China, and the recission of tariffs may be critical to the company's future prospects in China, for one cannot have his cake and eat it too.



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Calgon Carbon Corp.              (CCC  )    Sector: Basic Materials
PO Box 717                       Industry: Synthetics
Pittsburgh, PA 15230-0717        Exchange: NYSE

Calgon Carbon Corporation provides services, products, and solutions
for purifying water and air in the United States and
internationally. The company operates through three segments:
Activated Carbon and Service, Equipment, and Consumer. The Activated
Carbon and Service segment manufactures granular and powdered
activated carbon for use in applications to remove organic compounds
from water, air, and other liquids and gases. It also offers
leasing, monitoring, and maintenance of carbon adsorption equipment.
In addition, this segment provides carbon reactivation, handling,
and transportation. The Equipment segment offers systems to purify
air and water. Its adsorption systems are used for volatile organic
compound control, air stripper off-gases, and landfill gas
emissions, as well as for process purification, wastewater
treatment, groundwater remediation, and de-chlorination. This
segment employs proprietary ISEP (Ionic Separator) continuous ion
exchange units for the purification of products in the food,
pharmaceutical, and biotechnology industries. Its ISEP units are
also used to remove perchlorate and nitrate contaminants from
drinking water. In addition, this segment offers ultra violet
segment manufactures and sells carbon cloth for the medical and
specialty markets; PreZerve storage products to protect and preserve
jewelry and keepsakes from deterioration; and AllGone, an odor
elimination system that utilizes activated carbon discs to adsorb
odors and impurities from the air. Calgon Carbon Corporation serves
potable water, industrial process, environmental water,
environmental air, food, and specialty markets. The company was

Last Trade:  14.49                     52-Week Range:  19.31 -  10.00
Trade Date:  11-08                     Avg. Volume:    587,577 Shares
Index Membership: S&P 600 SmallCap                 Employees:     943

Corporate Governance:
Calgon Carbon Corp.'s Corporate Governance Quotient (CGQ-«) as of
6-Nov-09 is better than 64.2% of S&P 600 companies and 69.5% of
Materials companies.

     EPS:   0.69     Dividend Amount: $  0.00       Yield:         0.00%
                    Ex-Dividend Date: 10-Aug-05   Mkt Cap: $    810,980K
                        Payout Ratio:  0.00%

     Last Split Factor (new for old): 2:1      Split Date: 04-Jun-91

Key Statistics:

Enterprise Value: $    795,460K           Revenue (ttm)  : $    403,610K
                                             Gross Profit: $    133,390K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $     61,900K

Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm):  1.97           Revenue per Share: $    7.45
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm):  12.85       Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y):  8.50%


P/E Ratio (fwd projected): 18.82      P/E Ratio (current):  20.91

P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected):  1.39  Operating Margin:   11.14%
               Price/Sales Ratio:  1.94     Profit Margin:    9.65%
                Price/Book Value:  2.67        Book Value: $  5.25/sh.

Return on Assets:   7.14%        Net Income Avl to Common: $    39,400K
Return on Equity:  14.51%          Diluted Earnings/Share:     $  0.69
                              Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):      523.40%

Balance Sheet Items :                   Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr)                      (trailing 12 mo.)

       Total Cash: $     15,530K        Operating Cash Flow:$     50,800K
       Total Debt: $          0K        Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$    -11,730K
Total Debt/Equity:         0.00
 Total Cash/Share:      $  0.28
    Current Ratio:         3.57

Share Statistics:                       Stock Price History:

    Shares Outstanding:   55,970K       Stk 52-Week Change:  -3.53%
                 Float:   55,270K       S&P 500 52-Wk Chng:  14.86%
  Sh. Short % of Float:     6.20%        50-Day Moving Avg:  15.36
           Short Ratio:    10.50        200-Day Moving Avg:  14.12
% Held by Institutions:    87.50%                     Beta:   0.89
    % Held by Insiders:     1.13%

Analysts' Estimates:               Cur. Qtr   Next Qtr  Cur. Year  Next Year
___________________________          Dec-09     Mar-10     Dec-09     Dec-10

  Average Earnings Estimate           0.16       0.16       0.50       0.77
  Average Revenue  Estimate           107M       111M       408M       477M

Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):

Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr): 0.036          EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY): 0.000
  PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected): 0.010                 P/E Ratio (ttm): 0.778
      Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY): 0.000


Annual Income Statements:                          All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          31-Dec-08    31-Dec-07    31-Dec-06

  Total Revenue                            400,270      351,124      316,122
  Cost of Revenue                          266,885      242,273      236,673
  Gross Profit                             133,385      108,851       79,449

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                     4,129        3,699        4,248
  Selling, General & Administrative         64,149       61,348       62,003
  Non-Recurring Expenses                    -9,250            0       -1,125
  Other Operating Expenses                  16,674       17,248       18,933
  Total Operating Expenses                  75,702            0       84,059
  Operating Income or Loss                  57,683       26,556       -4,610

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net           -1,199          254       -1,387
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes          56,484       26,810       -5,997
  Interest Expense                           3,673        5,508        5,977
  Income Before Taxes                       52,811       21,302      -11,974
  Income Tax Expense                        18,101        7,826       -2,676
  Minority Interest                              0            0            0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s           35,564       15,453       -9,012



Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                    2,793         -166        1,214
  Extraordinary Items                            0            0            0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                   0            0            0
  Other Items                                    0            0            0
  Net Income                                38,357       15,287       -7,798

  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts            0            0            0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shares         38,357       15,287       -7,798


Quarterly Income Statements:                           All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                    30-Sep-09   30-Jun-09   31-Mar-09   31-Dec-08

  Total Revenue                      107,495     103,090      90,633     102,394
  Cost of Revenue                     71,089      70,319      61,214      68,638
  Gross Profit                        36,406      32,771      29,419      33,756

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development               1,295       1,246         962       1,010
  Selling, General & Adminis.         16,301      17,380      15,745      16,512
  Non-Recurring Expenses                   0           0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses             4,690       3,972       3,776       4,513
  Total Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Operating Income or Loss            14,120      10,173       8,936      11,721

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net     -1,426      -1,423        -301        -728
  Earnings Before Int. & Taxes        12,694       8,750       8,635      10,993
  Interest Expense                        92         186          21         217
  Income Before Taxes                 12,602       8,564       8,614      10,776
  Income Tax Expense                    -787       2,893       3,081       2,956
  Minority Interest                        0           0           0           0
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s     13,859       6,098       5,974       8,337

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                  0           0           0        -443
  Extraordinary Items                      0           0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes             0           0           0           0
  Other Items                              0           0           0           0
  Net Income                          13,859       6,098       5,974       7,894

  Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s            0           0           0           0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shs      13,859       6,098       5,974       7,894


Annual Balance Sheets:                                All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                        31-Dec-08      31-Dec-07      31-Dec-06
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                 16,750         30,304          5,631
  Short Term Investments                       0              0              0
  Net Receivables                         82,626         74,492         68,373
  Inventory                               93,725         81,280         70,339
  Other Current Assets                     7,821          3,602          4,369
  Total Current Assets                   200,922        189,678        148,712

  Long-Term Investments                   11,747          8,593          6,971
  Property, Plant & Equipt               122,960        105,512        106,101
  Goodwill                                26,340         27,845         27,497
  Intangible Assets                        5,930          7,760          8,521
  Accumulated Amortization                     0              0              0
  Other Assets                             6,568          2,333          4,337
  Deferred Long Term Asset Charges        13,129          6,419         20,225
  Total Assets                           387,596        348,140        322,364

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                        56,036         55,750         55,526
  Short/Current Long Term Debt            10,381         64,011              0
  Other Current Liabilities                    0              0              0
  Total Current Liabilities               66,417        119,761         55,526

  Long Term Debt                               0         12,925         74,836
  Other Liabilities                       68,199         41,844         42,450
  Deferred LT Liability Charges              242          1,361          1,679
  Minority Interest                            0              0              0
  Negative Goodwill                            0              0              0
  Total Liabilities                      134,858        175,891        174,491

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Stocks Options Warrants                0              0              0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock                   0              0              0
  Preferred Stock                              0              0              0
  Common Stock                               570            430            425
  Retained Earnings                      143,193        104,936         94,035
  Treasury Stock                         -28,615        -27,424        -27,237
  Capital Surplus                        144,040         77,299         70,851
  Other Stockholder Equity                -6,450         17,008          9,799
  Total Stockholder Equity               252,738        172,249        147,873
  Net Tangible Assets                    220,468        136,644        111,855


Quarterly Balance Sheets:                               All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                 30-Sep-09    30-Jun-09    31-Mar-09    31-Dec-08
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents         20,795       18,520       13,874       16,750
  Short Term Investments                0            0            0            0
  Net Receivables                  84,140       82,876       79,724       82,626
  Inventory                        88,186       94,441       98,731       93,725
  Other Current Assets              4,727        5,964        5,717        7,821
  Total Current Assets            197,848      201,801      198,046      200,922

  Long-Term Investments            12,500       11,036       11,087       11,747
  Property, Plant & Equipt       151,073      143,774      130,575      122,960
  Goodwill                         26,844       26,813       26,220       26,340
  Intangible Assets                 5,027        5,373        5,594        5,930
  Accumulated Amortization              0            0            0            0
  Other Assets                      6,125        6,203        6,033        6,568
  Deferred LT Asset Charges             0            0            0            0
  Total Assets                    406,605      405,356      391,401      387,596

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                 55,446       54,577       57,364       56,036
  Current Portion LT Debt               0        5,163        9,602       10,381
  Other Current Liabilities             0            0            0            0
  Total Current Liabilities        55,446       59,740       66,966       66,417

  Long Term Debt                        0        7,600            0            0
  Other Liabilities                60,052       69,639       68,146       68,199
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges            20           44          167          242
  Minority Interest                     0            0            0            0
  Negative Goodwill                     0            0            0            0
  Total Liabilities               115,518      137,023      135,279      134,858

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, WarrantS               0            0            0            0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock            0            0            0            0
  Preferred Stock                       0            0            0            0
  Common Stock                        585          572          572          570
  Retained Earnings               159,937      146,078      139,980      143,193
  Treasury Stock                  -29,511      -29,494      -29,182      -28,615
  Capital Surplus                 162,859      156,137      154,833      144,040
  Other Stockholder Equity         -2,783       -4,960      -10,081       -6,450
  Total Stockholder Equity        291,087      268,333      256,122      252,738
  Net Tangible Assets             259,216      236,147      224,308      220,468


Annual Cash Flow:                                    All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                       31-Dec-08      31-Dec-07      31-Dec-06

  Net Income                             38,357          6,098         -7,798
Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                           16,674         17,248         18,935
  Adjustments to Net Income               1,035          7,921         -4,064
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls          -12,049           -811          6,032
  Changes in Liabilities                 -3,605          5,390        -18,026
  Changes in Inventories                -14,931         -9,559         -1,508
  Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's              0         -6,063            644
  Total Cash Flow fr Operations          25,570         29,413         -5,785

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                        0        -11,789        -12,855
  Investments                                 0              0              0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing               0            513         27,065
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing         -32,096        -11,276         14,210

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                              0              0              0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock               3,929          2,903            356
  Net Borrowings                        -11,000          1,504         -9,089
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing           2,122            942              0
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing          -4,949          5,349              0

  Effect of Exchange Rate Change         -2,079          1,187            493
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s         -13,554         24,673            185


Quarterly Cash Flow:                                   All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                   30-Sep-09   30-Jun-09   31-Mar-09   31-Dec-08

  Net Income                         13,859       6,098       5,974       7,894

Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                        4,723       4,157       3,776       4,513
  Adjustments to Net Income          -9,024       4,016       1,452       1,116
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls        4,460       5,599      -1,223        -184
  Changes in Liabilities                 -6      -1,050      -1,067      -7,009
  Changes in Inventories              6,686       6,710      -6,004      -6,852
  Changes in Other Oper'g Acts       -1,167      -4,629       5,796       2,188
  Total Cash Flow f Operations       19,531      20,901       8,704       1,666

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures               -9,872     -17,064     -11,132      20,641
  Investments                             0           0           0           0
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing       5,753     -11,019           0     -32,676
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing      -4,119     -28,083     -11,132     -12,035

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                          0           0           0           0
  Sale or Purchase of Stock             245        -294        -137        -369
  Net Borrowings                     -7,600       3,070           0     -11,000
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing         -72      -1,156         490         620
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing      -7,427       1,620         353     -10,749

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg            43        -811        -801         605
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.        8,028           0      -6,373           0


CCC    Calgon Carbon Corp.                [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
                                          or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28?    1.3391       P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  2.1700       Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    1.4878

Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   1.1856       Inventory/Sales < 5%?      0.2135
Sales < $1 billion?        2.4983       Operating Margin < 7.5%?   0.6732

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        1.0000       Long-Term Debt Service:    3.0000
LTD Being Reduced?         1.8000       Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         1.7840       Working Capital >= 1.5?    0.5605
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      3.0000       Debt / Assets < 1?         1.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           1.8926       Inventory Turnover > 1?    3.0000
Shares Out Decreasing?     0.6000       Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion?  1.8496
                                        Profit Margin > 7.5%?      1.2866
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     0.0000       EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0000
Enterprise Value/Revenue:  1.3133       EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%?     0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   1.8357       EPS Growth Consistent?     2.4000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    3.0000       Collection < 45 days?      0.5972
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%?   1.2750       Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1?    3.0000
EPS Annual Growth > 10%?   0.0000       Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%?   1.0000

Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          2.5411       % Held by Insiders  < 5%?  3.0000
Beta > 1.25?               0.7120       % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.5714
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?      0.2567       % Held by Institut. > 30?  2.9167
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500:  0.9907       Short Ratio > 5?           2.1000
Price/Book Value < 3?      1.3300       Short % of Float > 20?     0.3100
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.4200       Average Volume > 100,000?  3.0000

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  3.0000       Positive Free Cash Flow?   0.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  1.0000       Price to C.F./sh. Ratio:  -3.0000
                                        Cash Flow / Assets >.10?  -0.2885

CCC     Calgon Carbon Corp.             Overall Zenith Index:      1.3874


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As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.

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Channeling Potential

 
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility.  Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.

Results for Calgon Carbon Corp.:
Symbol? CCC
Total Months Available: 118
       Months in Cycle?   4

Months Covered by Periods:  12

Period 1           Period 2          Period 3
   H1      L1        H2      L2        H3      L3
  16.79   10.00     19.31   11.14     16.77   10.93

RANGE   =  19.31  TO   10.00            Close =  14.49
CHANNEL =  16.77  TO   11.14           Degree =   6
Volatility =  38.85%                    Index =  23
Channel Chart


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20 Days:

1 Day:

The following table details which MACD signals on the preceding chart are best taken.
Originally, this was set up for a two-day span, but ten days gives a better sample.
Unfortunately, with the 10-day span, the colored lines on the histogram are much
harder to read.  Both spans are shown above.  Red turning into green on the histogram
is a buy and green turning into red is a sell, but with the following conditions.  The
share price must have moved at least 0.2% away from the previous signal price in order
to avoid whipsawing.  More importantly, the +/- magnitude of the MACD (the blue line,
which crosses the red line at signal time) must be greater than the minimum required
magnitude indicated below.  Otherwise, the signal is ignored.  This system appears to
work well for Calgon Carbon.

CCC    Minimum Magnitude MACD for Action = ± 0.0650

Ticker Day   Time     Hist.      MACD  Sig Line  Act    Price   Profit

CCC    29   06:46   -0.0070    0.0796    0.0866   S     14.76     0.00
CCC    29   06:58    0.0005    0.0656    0.0651   B     14.93    -1.15
CCC    30   05:34    0.0513    0.0613    0.0101         15.65    -7.18
CCC    30   06:47   -0.0036    0.1439    0.1475   S     15.58    -7.18
CCC    02   06:07   -0.0005   -0.0146   -0.0141         15.86     0.27
CCC    02   09:57    0.0078   -0.0784   -0.0862   B     15.78     0.27
CCC    02   11:46   -0.0031    0.0882    0.0913   S     16.02     1.79
CCC    03   06:32   -0.0002   -0.0242   -0.0240         15.80     1.92
CCC    04   11:50    0.0011   -0.0656   -0.0667   B     15.25     1.92
CCC    05   06:13   -0.0005    0.0087    0.0092         15.20     5.59
CCC    05   07:20   -0.0001   -0.0752   -0.0750   S     14.53     5.59
CCC    05   07:33    0.0004   -0.0725   -0.0729   B     14.42     6.35
CCC    05   07:35   -0.0000   -0.0727   -0.0727   S     14.38     6.07
CCC    05   07:53    0.0009   -0.1378   -0.1388   B     13.94     9.13
CCC    06   06:09   -0.0294    0.0014    0.0308         13.79    13.24
CCC    06   06:55   -0.0091    0.2543    0.2634   S     15.00    13.24
CCC    06   07:45    0.0004   -0.1611   -0.1615   B     14.32    17.77
CCC    06   13:01    0.0015   -0.0038   -0.0053         14.49    18.96


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Stock Fetcher

Fetcher Fetcher


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Point & Figure Chart

P & F Chart


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Wall Street Analyzer






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Marketspace Chart

Marketspace Chart



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Time Series Forecast

Time Series 1 Time Series 2


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Neural Network Prediction

"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."

Neural Chart Heading
Neural Trades Neural Prediction



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Ultimate Trading Systems

The corresponding trades for the above chart are shown in tabular form below.



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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison + 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue + 1
Zenith Index + 1
GAAP vs. non-GAAP Earnings < 1%- 1
Cash Flow + 1
Ratios - 1
Market Grader + 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Intrinsic Value DDM + 1
Stock Scout + 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports - 1
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites + 1
Insider Activity + 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest - 1
Sentiment - 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
Moving Average - 1
Stock Fetcher + 1
Point & Figure - 1
Wall Street Analyzer + 1
Marketspace Chart - 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network 0
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems - 1
Total + 6
Place 2,160 shares of Calgon Carbon Corporation (CCC) on the Active List.