12-30-2011: Brinks Company (The), Inc. (BCO): Keeping Itself Safe from Corporate Raiders

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Recommendation

Brinks Company (The), Inc.

The Brink's Company stock is what we call a "story stock." It has so many surprises for anyone not familiar with the company who attempts to review it, that we can hardly hope to do it justice here. Brink's is really Pittston Company, a coal mining and energy company with railroad interests. Brink's before Pittston acquired it in 1956 was a venerable old company from the 1860's on as a delivery company. In some ways it still retains that identity with major competitors listed as United Parcel Service and FedEx, even though Brink's emphasizes security aspects of delivery. After 1956, Brink's was really part of Pittston, which is why obligations for "black lung" pension benefits remain with the company as a result of leavings from Pittston's energy business. Brink's ultimately became Pittston's most profitable division, and Pittston divested itself of its energy lands and holdings and finally changed its name to "Brink's" in the early part of the 2000's.

Our first surprise with regard to Brink's was the way in which it segmented its business geographically into "EMEA", followed by North America, Latin America, and a very small chunk of Asia. "EMEA" (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) were where the bulk of Brink's revenues were coming from, especially from France.

The next surprise was our association of "Brink's" with home security services frequently advertised on television, which proved to be false. Brink's deals mainly, if not practically exclusively, with focus on its core business of armored cars and ATM machines. What happened to "home security" is a long story, which was spun off into a separate company, resulting in a plunge in the stock share price from $70/share to $20/share in late 2008. This might be a bit misleading as shareholders got an interest in the new Brink's Home Security Systems stock as part of the spinoff, but the fact that the decline did not occur in one day suggests to us that the market viewed the spinoff very negatively. The Home Security business was one of Brink's most profitable divisions. It also sold off a division it purchased from Burlington Nothern Air Express (BAX) very soon after it purchased it, suggesting poor management. But here again, the "story" aspect as extenuating circumstances.

Brink's was the victim of what we call "shareholder activism," meaning large institutional or hedge fund holders of the stock influenced the Board of Directors to mismanage the company. It was pressured by MMI Investments LP to sell off its BAX division. Worse, it was pressured by Pirate Capital, a 9% shareholder to sell itself off! MMI and "Pirate" together owned almost 20% of the company. These two lousy entities were often referred to as "corporate raiders" and "shareholder activism" got a dirty name from entities like that whose main desire was to plunder the assets and were quite successful in doing so, even as Victor Posner did ruin many venerable American companies in the 1960's.

Although Brink's (BCO) stock took a hit from loss of income due to discontinued operations right and left, the home security spinoff might have been timely for that division faced recession problems and growing pains. The remaining "Brink's" seems safer as the corporate raiders have gone their way and no longer have much interest in the armored car services. Thus much of the confusion is out of the way and company is free to expand. However, we note it has substantial interests in Venezuela, a big negative, as doing business in Hugo Chavez's country is tatamount to suicide. He likes to nationalize or overtax Gringo interests. 



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Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is consider strong and > 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.

Brinks Co.                       (BCO  )    Sector: Services
1801 Bayberry Court              Industry: Security & Protection Service
PO Box 18100                     Exchange: NYSE
Richmond, VA 23226-8100

The Brink's Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides secure
transportation, cash logistics, and other security-related services to
banks and financial institutions, retailers, government agencies, mints,
jewelers, and other commercial operations worldwide. Its services include
cash-in-transit armored vehicle transportation; automated teller machine
services, including cash replenishment, monitoring and forecasting
capabilities, deposit pick-up, and processing services; and secure
logistics services for valuables, including diamonds, jewelry, precious
metals, securities, currency, high-tech devices, electronics, and
pharmaceuticals. The company also provides cash logistics services,
including money processing and cash management; deploying and servicing
-ĉintelligent-Ĉ safes and safe control devices, including its patented
CompuSafe; integrated check and cash processing; and check imaging. In
addition, it offers bill payment acceptance and processing services to
utility companies and other billers; and commercial security system
services that comprise the design and installation of security systems,
including alarms, motion detectors, closed-circuit televisions, digital
video recorders, access control systems, electronic locks, and optical
turnstiles. Further, the company provides security and guarding services
to protect airports, offices, warehouses, stores, and public venues with
electronic surveillance, access control, fire prevention, and patrolling
personnel. The Brink's Company was founded in 1838 and is based in
Richmond, Virginia.

Last Trade:  27.14                     52-Week Range:  34.46 -  21.53
Trade Date:  12-29                     Avg. Volume:    286,579 Shares
Index Membership:                                  Employees:  70,000

Corporate Governance:
             Audit (Low Concern), Board (Low Concern), Compensation (Medium
    Concern), Shareholder Rights (Medium Concern).

     EPS:   1.64     Dividend Amount: $  0.40       Yield:         1.50%
                    Ex-Dividend Date: Nov 9, 201  Mkt Cap: $  1,270,000K
                        Payout Ratio: 25.00%

     Last Split Factor (new for old): N/A      Split Date: N/A

Key Statistics:

Enterprise Value: $  1,440,000K           Revenue (ttm)  : $  3,770,000K
                                             Gross Profit: $    585,100K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $    328,400K

Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm):  0.38           Revenue per Share: $   78.93
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm):   4.39       Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y): 28.30%

P/E Ratio (fwd projected): 13.30      P/E Ratio (current):  16.55

P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected):  1.30  Operating Margin:    4.89%
               Price/Sales Ratio:  0.33     Profit Margin:    2.09%
                Price/Book Value:  2.22        Book Value: $ 11.94/sh.

Return on Assets:   5.28%        Net Income Avl to Common: $    74,900K
Return on Equity:  15.60%          Diluted Earnings/Share:     $  1.64
                              Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy):       28.90%

Balance Sheet Items :                   Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr)                      (trailing 12 mo.)

       Total Cash: $    200,500K        Operating Cash Flow:$    262,800K
       Total Debt: $    401,400K        Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$     72,360K
Total Debt/Equity:        64.22
 Total Cash/Share:      $  4.28
    Current Ratio:         1.40

Share Statistics:                       Stock Price History:

    Shares Outstanding:   46,830K       Stk 52-Week Change:   0.19%
                 Float:   46,410K       S&P 500 52-Wk Chng:  -0.66%
  Sh. Short % of Float:     3.60%        50-Day Moving Avg:  25.22
           Short Ratio:     5.50        200-Day Moving Avg:  26.34
% Held by Institutions:    96.30%                     Beta:   1.27
    % Held by Insiders:     0.77%

Analysts' Estimates:               Cur. Qtr   Next Qtr  Cur. Year  Next Year
___________________________          Dec 11     Mar 12     Dec 11     Dec 12

  Average Earnings Estimate           0.59       0.36       1.70       2.04
  Average Revenue  Estimate             0M       980M     3,930M     4,200M

Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):

Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr):  10.250      EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY):  13.667
  PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected):  13.667             P/E Ratio (ttm):   2.476
      Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY):  13.667


Annual Income Statements:                          All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                          Dec31,2010   Dec31,2009   Dec31,2008

  Total Revenue                          3,121,500    3,135,000    3,163,500
  Cost of Revenue                        2,536,400    2,534,500    2,505,100
  Gross Profit                             585,100      600,500      658,400

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                         0            0            0
  Selling, General & Administrative        438,800      433,700      434,500
  Non-Recurring Expenses                         0            0       -4,600
  Other Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Total Operating Expenses                       0            0            0
  Operating Income or Loss                 146,300      166,800      228,500

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net            8,100       10,800        8,100
  Earnings Before Interest & Taxes         154,400      177,600      236,600
  Interest Expense                          14,800       11,300       12,000
  Income Before Taxes                      139,600      166,300      224,600
  Income Tax Expense                        67,100      -61,100       53,000
  Minority Interest                        -15,700      -31,700      -39,800
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s           72,500      227,400      131,800

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations                      300        4,500       51,500
  Extraordinary Items                            0            0            0
  Effect of Accounting Changes                   0            0            0
  Other Items                                    0            0            0
  Net Income                                57,100      200,200      183,300

  Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts            0            0            0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shares         57,100      200,200      183,300


Quarterly Income Statements:                           All numbers in thousands)
  Period Ending                   Sep30,2011  Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010

  Total Revenue                      995,800     979,300     913,300     880,600
  Cost of Revenue                    807,700     808,600     757,600     696,200
  Gross Profit                       188,100     170,700     155,700     184,400

Operating Expenses:
  Research & Development                   0           0           0           0
  Selling, General & Adminis.        125,600     150,300     118,700     137,500
  Non-Recurring Expenses                   0           0           0           0
  Other Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Total Operating Expenses                 0           0           0           0
  Operating Income or Loss            62,500      20,400      37,000      46,900

Income from Continuing Operations:
  Total Other Income/Expenses Net      1,300       1,100       4,400       5,400
  Earnings Before Int. & Taxes        63,800      21,500      41,400      52,300
  Interest Expense                     6,500       5,900       5,800       5,800
  Income Before Taxes                 57,300      15,600      35,600      46,500
  Income Tax Expense                  20,900       5,600      11,400      21,000
  Minority Interest                   -4,900      -4,700      -5,300      -6,300
  Net Income from Continuing Op.s     36,400      10,000      24,200      25,500

Non-recurring Events:
  Discontinued Operations               -700       2,600       1,100         700
  Extraordinary Items                      0           0           0           0
  Effect of Accounting Changes             0           0           0           0
  Other Items                              0           0           0           0
  Net Income                          30,800       7,900      20,000      19,900

  Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s            0           0           0           0
  Net Income Avail To Common Shs      30,800       7,900      20,000      19,900


Annual Balance Sheets:                                All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                       Dec31,2010     Dec31,2009     Dec31,2008
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents                183,000        143,000        250,900
  Short Term Investments                       0              0              0
  Net Receivables                        573,400        466,100        481,800
  Inventory                                    0              0              0
  Other Current Assets                   121,000         81,000         99,700
  Total Current Assets                   877,400        690,100        832,400

  Long-Term Investments                        0              0         56,600
  Property, Plant & Equipt               698,900        549,500        534,000
  Goodwill                               244,300        213,700        139,600
  Intangible Assets                       83,200         69,400         21,100
  Accumulated Amortization                     0              0              0
  Other Assets                            90,700        103,000         29,500
  Deferred Long Term Asset Charges       276,000        254,100        202,600
  Total Assets                         2,270,500      1,879,800      1,815,800

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                       610,500        497,000        519,500
  Short/Current Long Term Debt            65,500         23,300         15,600
  Other Current Liabilities                    0              0              0
  Total Current Liabilities              676,000        520,300        535,100

  Long Term Debt                         323,700        172,300        173,000
  Other Liabilities                      657,100        560,900        780,900
  Deferred LT Liability Charges           30,600         30,500         21,500
  Minority Interest                       66,900         60,900         91,300
  Negative Goodwill                            0              0              0
  Total Liabilities                    1,754,300      1,344,900      1,601,800

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Stocks Options Warrants                0              0              0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock                   0              0              0
  Preferred Stock                              0              0              0
  Common Stock                            46,400         47,900         45,700
  Retained Earnings                      537,500        514,800        310,600
  Treasury Stock                               0              0              0
  Capital Surplus                        542,600        550,200        486,300
  Other Stockholder Equity              -610,300       -578,000       -628,600
  Total Stockholder Equity               516,200        534,900        214,000
  Net Tangible Assets                    188,700        251,800         53,300


Quarterly Balance Sheets:                               All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                Sep30,2011   Jun30,2011   Mar31,2011   Dec31,2010
Current Assets:
  Cash & Cash Equivalents         200,500      155,900      155,300      183,000
  Short Term Investments                0            0            0            0
  Net Receivables                 607,000      645,500      612,700      573,400
  Inventory                             0            0            0            0
  Other Current Assets            134,500      154,100      147,000      121,000
  Total Current Assets            942,000      955,500      915,000      877,400

  Long-Term Investments                 0            0            0            0
  Property, Plant & Equipt        717,800      755,700      724,300      698,900
  Goodwill                        238,000      258,500      252,900      244,300
  Intangible Assets                69,700       77,900       83,500       83,200
  Accumulated Amortization              0            0            0            0
  Other Assets                     84,000       87,000       82,900       90,700
  Deferred LT Asset Charges       292,100      281,800      280,500      276,000
  Total Assets                  2,343,600    2,416,400    2,339,100    2,270,500

Current Liabilities:
  Accounts Payable                631,000      664,800      604,000      610,500
  Current Portion LT Debt          42,800       67,500       71,100       65,500
  Other Current Liabilities             0            0            0            0
  Total Current Liabilities       673,800      732,300      675,100      676,000

  Long Term Debt                  358,600      330,800      331,600      323,700
  Other Liabilities               647,100      654,300      661,700      657,100
  Deferred LT Liab. Charges        39,100       36,700       33,100       30,600
  Minority Interest                66,200       67,700       72,100       66,900
  Negative Goodwill                     0            0            0            0
  Total Liabilities             1,784,800    1,821,800    1,773,600    1,754,300

Stockholder Equity:
  Misc. Options, WarrantS               0            0            0            0
  Redeemable Perferred Stock            0            0            0            0
  Preferred Stock                       0            0            0            0
  Common Stock                     46,800       46,700       46,600       46,400
  Retained Earnings               578,400      552,500      549,300      537,500
  Treasury Stock                        0            0            0            0
  Capital Surplus                 557,400      553,400      549,900      542,600
  Other Stockholder Equity       -623,800     -558,000     -580,300     -610,300
  Total Stockholder Equity        558,800      594,600      565,500      516,200
  Net Tangible Assets             251,100      258,200      229,100      188,700


Annual Cash Flow:                                    All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                      Dec31,2010     Dec31,2009     Dec31,2008

  Net Income                             57,100          7,900        183,300
Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                          136,600        135,100        122,300
  Adjustments to Net Income              41,300       -193,600        -43,800
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls          -37,700          8,900        -24,100
  Changes in Liabilities                 38,900        -16,400         44,300
  Changes in Inventories                      0              0              0
  Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's              0          5,800        145,100
  Total Cash Flow fr Operations         235,300        195,200        427,100

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures                 -148,800       -170,600       -165,300
  Investments                            -1,700         -6,400         -1,000
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing               0        -64,100       -193,600
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing        -255,400       -241,100       -359,900

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                        -37,300        -32,100        -30,600
  Sale or Purchase of Stock             -32,400         -5,600        -40,400
  Net Borrowings                        132,400        -22,300         76,500
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing               0         13,100         -5,100
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing          60,000        -46,600            400

  Effect of Exchange Rate Change            100        -15,400        -13,100
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s          40,000       -107,900         54,500


Quarterly Cash Flow:                                   All Numbers in Thousands
  Period Ending                  Sep30,2011  Jun30,2011  Mar31,2011  Dec31,2010

  Net Income                         30,800       7,900      20,000      19,900

Operating Activites:
  Depreciation                       40,500      41,200      38,800      36,600
  Adjustments to Net Income         -13,900       1,300      -4,600      12,100
  Changes in Accounts Recv'bls       29,700     -33,700     -21,700      -8,500
  Changes in Liabilities             10,500      55,000     -27,300         800
  Changes in Inventories                  0           0           0           0
  Changes in Other Oper'g Acts            0      -1,400     -17,400      25,600
  Total Cash Flow f Operations      100,700      75,000      -5,700      92,800

Investing Activities:
  Capital Expenditures              -47,100     -42,200     -29,400     -46,300
  Investments                         1,400        -300      11,000      10,100
  Other Cash Flows fr Investing           0         300        -500     -88,100
  Total Cash Flows fr Investing     -35,600     -42,200     -18,900    -124,300

Financing Acitivies:
  Dividends Paid                     -8,700     -15,000      -5,700     -11,100
  Sale or Purchase of Stock             600       1,900       2,600         200
  Net Borrowings                    -13,200     -21,200      -3,200      78,000
  Other Cash Flows fr Financing      13,800        -200      -1,400        -200
  Total Cash Flows fr Financing      -7,400     -34,700      -7,200      66,900

  Effect of Exchange Rate Chg             0           0           0       2,500
  Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.       44,600         600     -27,700      34,500


BCO    Brinks Co.                         [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
                                          or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28?    1.6918       P/E Ratio > 5?             1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate:  1.9000       Forward P/E Ratio < 28?    2.1053

Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3?   3.0000       Inventory/Sales < 5%?      1.0000
Sales < $1 billion?        0.3204       Operating Margin < 7.5%?   1.5337

Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40?        0.0062       Long-Term Debt Service:    1.5947
LTD Being Reduced?         1.2000       Short-Term Debt Service:   3.0000
Current Ratio > 2?         0.7000       Working Capital >= 1.5?    1.4306
Leverage Ratio < 20%?      1.1303       Debt / Assets < 1?         3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1?           1.1984       Inventory Turnover > 1?    1.0000
Shares Out Decreasing?     1.8000       Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion?  1.1811
                                        Profit Margin > 7.5%?      0.2787
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%?     3.0000       EPS Annual Growth > 10%?  -0.0600
Enterprise Value/Revenue:  0.2533       EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%?    -2.8660
Enterprise Value/EBITDA:   0.6271       EPS Growth Consistent?     1.8000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%?    2.8900       Collection < 45 days?      0.6712
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%?   3.0000       Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1?    3.0000
EPS Annual Growth > 10%?  -0.0600       Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%?   1.9220

Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%?          1.8475       % Held by Insiders  < 5%?  3.0000
Beta > 1.25?               1.0160       % Held by Institut. < 50?  0.5192
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA?     -0.1238       % Held by Institut. > 30?  3.0000
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500: -0.0440       Short Ratio > 5?           1.1000
Price/Book Value < 3?      1.7800       Short % of Float > 20?     0.1800
Return on Assets > 17%?    0.3106       Average Volume > 100,000?  2.8658

Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F:  3.0000       Positive Free Cash Flow?   1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow?  1.0000       Price to C.F./sh. Ratio:   1.2537
                                        Cash Flow / Assets >.10?   0.3088

BCO     Brinks Co.                      Overall Zenith Index:      1.3578


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Recommendation

Decision Weighting Factors
FactorsWeighted Points
News + 1
Comparison + 1
Industry - 1
Bond Issue 0
Zenith Index + 1
Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings < 1%- 1
Cash Flow + 1
Ratios + 1
Market Grader - 1
Intrinsic Value DCF + 1
Intrinsic Value DDM + 1
Stock Scout - 1
Projected Earnings + 1
Research Reports 0
Analysts + 1
Executive Perquisites + 1
Insider Activity - 1
Institutional Activity + 1
Management Reporting + 1
Short Interest - 1
Sentiment + 1
Standard & Poor's - 1
Moving Average + 1
Right Time Study + 1
Stock Fetcher - 1
Point & Figure + 1
Wall Street Analyzer - 1
Marketspace Chart + 1
Time Series Chart - 1
Neural Network 0
Stock Options + 1
Ultimate Trading Systems + 1
Total + 9
Place 1,100 shares of Brink's Company (The) (BCO) on the Active List.