Corporate Webpages Aspen Technology, Inc.
We landed on Aspen Technology, Inc. (AZPN) by locating a stock which was
showing good support on down market days. This turned
out to be not a very good criterion. Aspen Technology failed
the Zenith Index test, and one of the first things we
noted about its esoteric website was a very slow server.
Server problems are something we don't like to see with software
companies, especially those which rely heavily on Microsoft's
latest gyrations in updated non-backward-compatible systems.
The identity of users of Aspen's optimization software were a
little hard to recognize among the bigger corporate organizations, and
optimization software is a buzzword from the 1960's and a sort
of "luxury item" for today's businesses. Thus "news" on this company
was more frequent in the early part of the 2000's leaving open a
question as to, "What have you done for us lately?" We also noted a lack
of any Chairman's Letter to Shareholders, and when we punched
this into Aspen's "search engine" we got back information on
filing complaints about auditing. To its credit, Aspen offers
trial uses of the software it offers. Its stock appears to be
holding up well and defensively in recent market environment.
While executives seem reasonably-compensated, except for $11 million
in stock options to one manager, we did have concern that the company
has shareholder rights provisions which typically favor large insiders
but not average small shareholders, exhibiting further lack of concern for
shareholders. Publicly-hold corporations are not supposed to be
"piggy banks" for insiders, nor their personal privately-protected
territories.
The company has been the target of past and present class action
shareholder lawsuits and one former CEO may be facing prison
time for false reporting in financial statements. Institutions
are selling heavily. But analysts like the stock as a
turnaround situation.
So, would this company make a great short sale? In mid-August
on one day shares popped by 23%. This was the result of a
fourth-quarter results statement, which when further analyzed
resulted in second thoughts, particularly with regard to falling
margins. Yes, we do think this stock might make a good short.
11-11-2011: Aspen Technology, Inc. (AZPN): A History of Spotty Earnings
(WAIT FOR PAGE TO LOAD COMPLETELY BEFORE LINKS WORK.)
Company Profile
News
Comparison with Peers
Bond Issue
Zenith Index
Financial Statements
Financial Ratios
Market Grader
Intrinsic Value (Disc. CashFlow)
Intrinsic Value (Proj. Earnings)
Scout Stock Rating
Projected Earnings
Research Reports
Analysts' Opinions
Insider Activity
Institutional Activity
Sentiment
Short Interest
Stock Report
Management's Discussion
Moving Average Chart
Right Time Study
Channel Potential
Intraday Chart
Stock Fetcher
Point & Figure Chart
Wall Street Analyzer
Marketspace Chart
Time Series Forecast
Neural Network Prediction
Stock Options
Ultimate Trading Systems
Recommendation
Corporate Wepages
Company Profile |
News |
Comparison |
Similar Companies Performance:
Bond Issue |
Zenith Index |
Under current market conditions, a Zenith Index Score of 1.20 or above is required for a positive rating on this factor. 1.21 -1.30 is considered acceptable, 1.30-1.40 is consider strong and > 1.40 is considered exceptionally strong. Accounting statements in this section often contain mistakes, especially in earlier years' totals, but data is deemed sufficient for us to give a rating. More accurate financial statements follow in the next section.
Aspen Technology, Inc. (AZPN ) Sector: Technology
200 Wheeler Road Industry: Business Software & Services
Burlington, MA 01803 Exchange: Nasdaq
Aspen Technology, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides
integrated process optimization software solutions for manufacturers in
process industries, and engineering and construction firms. It designs and
develops aspenONE suite software applications for use in the engineering,
manufacturing, and supply chain business areas. The company-Ęs aspenONE
engineering software includes Aspen Plus and Aspen HYSYS, which are
process modeling software products for conceptual design, optimization,
and performance monitoring; Aspen Basic Engineering, a workflow tool that
allows engineers to build, re-use, and share process models and data;
Aspen Economic Evaluation, an economic evaluation software for estimating
costs of conceptual process designs; and Aspen Exchanger Design and
Rating, a software used to design, simulate, and optimize the performance
of heat exchangers. Its aspenONE manufacturing software comprises Aspen
InfoPlus.21, a data historian software that collects and stores data for
analysis and reporting; and Aspen DMCplus, a multi-variable controller
software capable of processing multiple constraints. The company-Ęs
aspenONE supply chain software products comprise Aspen Collaborative
Demand Manager, Aspen Petroleum Scheduler, Aspen PIMS, Aspen Plant
Fleet Optimizer that are designed to enable process manufacturers to
reduce inventory levels, increase asset efficiency, and optimize supply
chain decisions. It also offers customer support, professional, and
training services. The company serves manufacturers in process industries,
such as energy, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, consumer packaged goods,
power, metals and mining, pulp and paper, and bio-fuels, as well as
engineering and construction firms. Aspen Technology, Inc. was founded in
1981 and is headquartered in Burlington, Massachusetts.
Last Trade: 17.75 52-Week Range: 18.73 - 11.90
Trade Date: 11-09 Avg. Volume: 830,865 Shares
Index Membership: Employees: 1,269
Corporate Governance:
Audit (High Concern), Board (Low Concern), Compensation
(Medium Concern), Shareholder Rights (Medium Concern).
EPS: 0.16 Dividend Amount: $ 0.00 Yield: 0.00%
Ex-Dividend Date: N/A Mkt Cap: $ 1,670,000K
Payout Ratio: 0.00%
Last Split Factor (new for old): 2:1 Split Date: Mar 3, 199
Key Statistics:
Enterprise Value: $ 1,620,000K Revenue (ttm) : $ 206,280K
Gross Profit: $ 145,810K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $ -47,000K
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm): 7.87 Revenue per Share: $ 2.20
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm): -34.54 Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y): 18.90%
P/E Ratio (fwd projected): 80.77 P/E Ratio (current): 113.91
P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected): -9.01 Operating Margin: -24.67%
Price/Sales Ratio: 8.68 Profit Margin: 6.78%
Price/Book Value: 10.93 Book Value: $ 1.68/sh.
Return on Assets: -8.29% Net Income Avl to Common: $ 13,990K
Return on Equity: 10.38% Diluted Earnings/Share: $ 0.16
Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy): 0.00%
Balance Sheet Items : Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr) (trailing 12 mo.)
Total Cash: $ 145,360K Operating Cash Flow:$ 62,220K
Total Debt: $ 50,110K Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$ 3,290K
Total Debt/Equity: 35.42
Total Cash/Share: $ 1.55
Current Ratio: 1.39
Share Statistics: Stock Price History:
Shares Outstanding: 94,010K Stk 52-Week Change: 48.18%
Float: 77,410K S&P 500 52-Wk Chng: 5.15%
Sh. Short % of Float: 5.00% 50-Day Moving Avg: 16.75
Short Ratio: 4.90 200-Day Moving Avg: 16.06
% Held by Institutions: 89.00% Beta: 0.81
% Held by Insiders: 8.45%
Analysts' Estimates: Cur. Qtr Next Qtr Cur. Year Next Year
___________________________ Dec 11 Mar 12 Jun 12 Jun 13
Average Earnings Estimate -0.04 -0.02 -0.16 0.22
Average Revenue Estimate 5M 61M 233M 300M
Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):
Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr): 3.375 EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY): 0.000
PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected): 2.813 P/E Ratio (ttm): 1.185
Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY): 3.293
Annual Income Statements: All numbers in thousands)
Period Ending Jun30,2011 Jun30,2010 Jun30,2009
Total Revenue 198,154 166,344 311,580
Cost of Revenue 52,345 66,110 75,820
Gross Profit 145,809 100,234 235,760
Operating Expenses:
Research & Development 50,820 48,228 46,375
Selling, General & Administrative 149,812 160,248 142,382
Non-Recurring Expenses -247 1,128 3,069
Other Operating Expenses 0 0 0
Total Operating Expenses 0 0 0
Operating Income or Loss -54,576 -109,370 43,934
Income from Continuing Operations:
Total Other Income/Expenses Net 15,994 16,917 20,874
Earnings Before Interest & Taxes -38,582 -92,453 64,808
Interest Expense 5,138 8,455 10,516
Income Before Taxes -43,720 -100,908 54,292
Income Tax Expense -53,977 6,537 1,368
Minority Interest 0 0 0
Net Income from Continuing Op.s 10,257 -107,445 52,924
Non-recurring Events:
Discontinued Operations 0 0 0
Extraordinary Items 0 0 0
Effect of Accounting Changes 0 0 0
Other Items 0 0 0
Net Income 10,257 -107,445 52,924
Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts 0 0 0
Net Income Avail To Common Shares 10,257 -107,445 52,924
Quarterly Income Statements: All numbers in thousands)
Period Ending Sep30,2011 Jun30,2011 Mar31,2011 Dec31,2010
Total Revenue 51,225 52,645 52,601 49,808
Cost of Revenue 13,821 15,150 10,392 13,555
Gross Profit 37,404 37,495 42,209 36,253
Operating Expenses:
Research & Development 13,769 13,818 12,331 12,096
Selling, General & Adminis. 39,333 42,088 37,437 33,379
Non-Recurring Expenses -73 -87 -315 78
Other Operating Expenses 0 0 0 0
Total Operating Expenses 0 0 0 0
Operating Income or Loss -15,625 -18,324 -7,244 -9,300
Income from Continuing Operations:
Total Other Income/Expenses Net 199 3,729 3,100 2,799
Earnings Before Int. & Taxes -15,426 -14,595 -4,144 -6,501
Interest Expense 1,092 1,059 1,182 1,653
Income Before Taxes -16,518 -15,654 -5,326 -8,154
Income Tax Expense -4,782 -57,335 361 2,115
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0
Net Income from Continuing Op.s -11,736 41,681 -5,687 -10,269
Non-recurring Events:
Discontinued Operations 0 0 0 0
Extraordinary Items 0 0 0 0
Effect of Accounting Changes 0 0 0 0
Other Items 0 0 0 0
Net Income -11,736 41,681 -5,687 -10,269
Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s 0 0 0 0
Net Income Avail To Common Shs -11,736 41,681 -5,687 -10,269
Annual Balance Sheets: All Numbers in Thousands
Period Ending Jun30,2011 Jun30,2010 Jun30,2009
Current Assets:
Cash & Cash Equivalents 149,985 124,945 122,213
Short Term Investments 0 0 0
Net Receivables 91,908 112,236 157,201
Inventory 0 0 0
Other Current Assets 11,970 12,704 22,572
Total Current Assets 253,863 249,885 301,986
Long-Term Investments 57,064 102,624 171,061
Property, Plant & Equipt 6,730 8,057 9,604
Goodwill 18,624 17,361 16,686
Intangible Assets 2,813 2,367 3,918
Accumulated Amortization 0 0 0
Other Assets 3,639 2,424 1,933
Deferred Long Term Asset Charges 69,242 10,641 10,788
Total Assets 411,975 393,359 515,976
Current Liabilities:
Accounts Payable 67,238 57,143 57,386
Short/Current Long Term Debt 15,756 30,424 83,885
Other Current Liabilities 90,681 67,852 62,801
Total Current Liabilities 173,675 155,419 204,072
Long Term Debt 9,157 45,711 28,211
Other Liabilities 33,078 31,832 35,859
Deferred LT Liability Charges 38,262 19,427 18,424
Minority Interest 0 0 0
Negative Goodwill 0 0 0
Total Liabilities 254,172 252,389 286,566
Stockholder Equity:
Misc. Stocks Options Warrants 0 0 0
Redeemable Perferred Stock 0 0 0
Preferred Stock 0 0 0
Common Stock 9,494 9,267 9,033
Retained Earnings -381,271 -391,038 -283,593
Treasury Stock -10,531 -513 -513
Capital Surplus 530,996 515,729 497,478
Other Stockholder Equity 9,115 7,525 7,005
Total Stockholder Equity 157,803 140,970 229,410
Net Tangible Assets 136,366 121,242 208,806
Quarterly Balance Sheets: All Numbers in Thousands
Period Ending Sep30,2011 Jun30,2011 Mar31,2011 Dec31,2010
Current Assets:
Cash & Cash Equivalents 145,356 149,985 151,038 131,642
Short Term Investments 0 0 0 0
Net Receivables 85,349 91,908 87,745 96,490
Inventory 0 0 0 0
Other Current Assets 10,414 11,970 8,870 6,404
Total Current Assets 241,119 253,863 247,653 234,536
Long-Term Investments 48,170 57,064 71,650 87,689
Property, Plant & Equipt 6,205 6,730 7,179 7,693
Goodwill 17,791 18,624 18,546 18,161
Intangible Assets 2,489 2,813 2,949 2,028
Accumulated Amortization 0 0 0 0
Other Assets 3,857 3,639 2,246 2,786
Deferred LT Asset Charges 74,426 69,242 11,861 11,746
Total Assets 394,057 411,975 362,084 364,639
Current Liabilities:
Accounts Payable 60,158 67,238 35,458 40,973
Current Portion LT Debt 16,615 15,756 24,981 23,817
Other Current Liabilities 97,036 90,681 93,355 71,775
Total Current Liabilities 173,809 173,675 153,794 136,565
Long Term Debt 8,194 9,157 30,530 42,946
Other Liabilities 31,816 33,078 28,483 31,315
Deferred LT Liab. Charges 38,783 38,262 30,184 31,637
Minority Interest 0 0 0 0
Negative Goodwill 0 0 0 0
Total Liabilities 252,602 254,172 242,991 242,463
Stockholder Equity:
Misc. Options, WarrantS 0 0 0 0
Redeemable Perferred Stock 0 0 0 0
Preferred Stock 0 0 0 0
Common Stock 9,536 9,494 9,449 9,378
Retained Earnings -393,007 -381,271 -422,952 -416,775
Treasury Stock -19,703 -10,531 -4,163 -1,755
Capital Surplus 535,707 530,996 527,893 523,082
Other Stockholder Equity 8,922 9,115 8,866 8,246
Total Stockholder Equity 141,455 157,803 119,093 122,176
Net Tangible Assets 121,175 136,366 97,598 101,987
Annual Cash Flow: All Numbers in Thousands
Period Ending Jun30,2011 Jun30,2010 Jun30,2009
Net Income 10,257 41,681 52,924
Operating Activites:
Depreciation 5,336 6,551 8,712
Adjustments to Net Income -58,434 16,958 8,362
Changes in Accounts Recv'bls 78,256 107,370 29,352
Changes in Liabilities 28,688 6,283 -54,729
Changes in Inventories 0 0 0
Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's 0 8,905 -11,589
Total Cash Flow fr Operations 63,330 38,622 33,032
Investing Activities:
Capital Expenditures -2,839 -2,652 -2,972
Investments 0 0 0
Other Cash Flows fr Investing 0 -699 -2,382
Total Cash Flows fr Investing -4,829 -3,351 -5,354
Financing Acitivies:
Dividends Paid 0 0 0
Sale or Purchase of Stock -828 7,181 0
Net Borrowings -29,551 -34,841 -38,059
Other Cash Flows fr Financing 0 -4,040 -360
Total Cash Flows fr Financing -34,264 -31,700 -38,419
Effect of Exchange Rate Change 803 -839 -1,094
Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s 25,040 2,732 -11,835
Quarterly Cash Flow: All Numbers in Thousands
Period Ending Sep30,2011 Jun30,2011 Mar31,2011 Dec31,2010
Net Income -11,736 41,681 -5,687 -10,269
Operating Activites:
Depreciation 1,412 1,411 1,325 1,239
Adjustments to Net Income -208 -63,695 1,281 2,699
Changes in Accounts Recv'bls 14,534 17,579 26,899 16,923
Changes in Liabilities 84 17,924 10,317 2,879
Changes in Inventories 0 0 0 0
Changes in Other Oper'g Acts 0 -4,468 -2,450 1,354
Total Cash Flow f Operations 5,273 10,432 31,685 14,825
Investing Activities:
Capital Expenditures -386 -517 -446 -1,288
Investments 0 0 0 0
Other Cash Flows fr Investing 0 -323 -1,287 -204
Total Cash Flows fr Investing -586 -840 -1,733 -1,492
Financing Acitivies:
Dividends Paid 0 0 0 0
Sale or Purchase of Stock -6,940 -4,369 1,363 2,041
Net Borrowings -824 -5,387 -10,423 -6,324
Other Cash Flows fr Financing 0 0 0 -1,152
Total Cash Flows fr Financing -8,951 -10,908 -10,795 -4,485
Effect of Exchange Rate Chg 0 0 0 263
Change in Cash & Cash Equiv. -4,629 -1,053 19,396 8,481
AZPN Aspen Technology, Inc. [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28? 0.2458 P/E Ratio > 5? 1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate: -3.0000 Forward P/E Ratio < 28? 0.3467
Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3? 0.2650 Inventory/Sales < 5%? 1.0000
Sales < $1 billion? 3.0000 Operating Margin < 7.5%? -0.3040
Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40? 0.0113 Long-Term Debt Service: 3.0000
LTD Being Reduced? 2.4000 Short-Term Debt Service: -3.0000
Current Ratio > 2? 0.6950 Working Capital >= 1.5? 1.4417
Leverage Ratio < 20%? 3.0000 Debt / Assets < 1? 3.0000
Quick Ratio > 1? 1.3273 Inventory Turnover > 1? 1.0000
Shares Out Decreasing? 2.4000 Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion? 0.8982
Profit Margin > 7.5%? 0.9040
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%? 0.0000 EPS Annual Growth > 10%? 3.0000
Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.0000 EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%? 0.0460
Enterprise Value/EBITDA: -3.0000 EPS Growth Consistent? 1.8000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%? 0.0000 Collection < 45 days? 0.2658
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%? 2.8350 Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1? 3.0000
EPS Annual Growth > 10%? 3.0000 Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%? 0.1671
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%? 1.7839 % Held by Insiders < 5%? 0.5917
Beta > 1.25? 0.6480 % Held by Institut. < 50? 0.5618
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA? 0.1166 % Held by Institut. > 30? 2.9667
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500: 0.3434 Short Ratio > 5? 0.9800
Price/Book Value < 3? -3.0000 Short % of Float > 20? 0.2500
Return on Assets > 17%? -0.4876 Average Volume > 100,000? 3.0000
Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F: 3.0000 Positive Free Cash Flow? 1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow? 1.0000 Price to C.F./sh. Ratio: 3.0000
Cash Flow / Assets >.10? 0.0835
AZPN Aspen Technology, Inc. Overall Zenith Index: 0.9624
Financial Statements |
Financial Ratios |
. . . . . . . . . . . . 1 = Highest , 10 = Lowest
Market Grader |
Intrinsic Value (DCF) |
Intrinsic Value by Discounted Cash Flow Method:
Intrinsic Value (PEG) |
Intrinsic Value by Projected Earnings Growth Method:
Stock Scout |
We find "Scout" to be a bit biased toward the high end, so anything under a 6 is considered a negative, 6 and above, positive.
Projected Earnings |
Research Reports |
Analysts' Opinions |
Insider Activity |
Institutional Activity |
Institutional Orders to Buy or Sell:
Sentiment |
Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.
Short Interest Ratio |
As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.
Stock Report |
Management's Discussion of Results of Operations Excerpts |
Moving Average Chart |
Right Time Study |
Channeling Potential |
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility. Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.
Results for Aspen Technology:
Symbol? AZPN
Total Months Available: 80
Months in Cycle? 4
Months Covered by Periods: 12
Period 1 Period 2 Period 3
H1 L1 H2 L2 H3 L3
16.13 11.90 17.53 14.02 18.73 12.61
RANGE = 18.73 TO 11.90 Close = 17.24
CHANNEL = 16.13 TO 14.02 Degree = 3
Volatility = 12.24% Index = 3
Intraday Chart |
2 Days:
Stock Fetcher |
Point & Figure Chart |
Wall Street Analyzer |
Marketspace Chart |
Time Series Forecast |
Neural Network Prediction |
"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."
Ultimate Trading Systems |
The corresponding trades for the above chart are shown in tabular form below.
Recommendation |
| Factors | Weighted Points |
|---|---|
| News | - 1 |
| Comparison | + 1 |
| Industry | + 1 |
| Bond Issue | 0 |
| Zenith Index | - 1 |
| Non-GAAP vs. GAAP Earnings < 1% | - 1 |
| Cash Flow | - 1 |
| Ratios | - 1 |
| Market Grader | - 1 |
| Intrinsic Value DCF | - 1 |
| Intrinsic Value DDM | - 1 |
| Stock Scout | + 1 |
| Projected Earnings | + 1 |
| Research Reports | - 1 |
| Analysts | + 1 |
| Executive Perquisites | - 1 |
| Insider Activity | - 1 |
| Institutional Activity | - 1 |
| Management Reporting | + 1 |
| Short Interest | - 1 |
| Sentiment | + 1 |
| Standard & Poor's | - 1 |
| Moving Average | + 1 |
| Right Time Study | + 1 |
| Stock Fetcher | + 1 |
| Point & Figure | + 1 |
| Wall Street Analyzer | - 1 |
| Marketspace Chart | - 1 |
| Time Series Chart | + 1 |
| Neural Network | - 1 |
| Stock Options | - 1 |
| Ultimate Trading Systems | - 1 |
| Total | - 7 |
Place 1,720 shares of Aspen Technology Inc. (AXPN) on the Active List.
