Corporate Webpages Alliance One International, Inc.
At one time Zenith had a program that relied heavily on historic
versus current p/e ratios. It would consistently pick stocks to
buy with very low p/e's. An experienced broker at the time told
us, "Those are precisely the ones which are going to go down!"
His contention was that "the market" doesn't miss much, and low
p/e's aren't undiscovered, they're low for a reason.
Nonetheless, low p/e's are something all fundamental traders
seek, albeit the question is, "How low?" We decided to see how
such a system would fare today. One of the lowest p/e stocks
out there is Alliance One International, Inc. (AOI). This is
based near Raleigh, North Carolina, and has facilities near
Greensboro. Now anyone who has visited the
Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point Tri-Cities area of North
Carolina recently knows the place is like a ghost town!
Economically it has been hit by the triple-whammy of foreign
imported furniture, foreign-imported cotton goods, and bans on
smoking tobacco. So it is not too strange to realize that low
p/e Alliance is a tobacco company. Not the kind of tobacco
company that places ads about the hazards of smoking like
Philip-Morris does, but a solid dyed-in-the-wool good old
southern smoke-yourself-to-death tobacco company!
Formed by an early 2000's merger of DIMON, Inc. and Standard
Commercial Corporation, Alliance One's track record is
sufficiently in doubt to cause a shortage of analysts to guess
at what next year's earnings might be. The two companies merging
were the second and third-largest tobacco trading companies
in the U.s. But for sure, most believe earnings next year will
probably be less than this year. Still the trend in revenues is
up, and with a current p/e of around 5, the company has room to
decrease revenues and still be a value play.
Corporate governance is stressed on this company's website with
a long list of "independent directors." By all methods of
rating corporate governance, we have to agree this is a
well-managed company. Still, news is in short supply and
consists of a few items regarding refinancing and floating
"senior notes." The company has high-interest paying bonds
with relatively close maturities. Unfortunately, this gives it
another negative rating from us because high-intest bonds
approaching 9% are also very high risk today.
The Zenith Index didn't pass our minimum standard, as the
company has poor growth prospects, despite what the historic
revenues tell you.
Recent legislation passed and signed by the Obama Administration
makes FDA regulation of tobacco companies stricter than ever, making
it every harder and harder for them to be profitable. But there are still
a lot of smokers out there, especially in places like good old boy
Mississippi (where Governor Barbour used lawsuit awards from
tobacco companies to finance highways rather than anti-smoking ads)
and of course, North Carolina, one of the last states to pass anti-smoking
legislation for inside restaurants.
01-08-2010: Alliance One International, Inc. (AOI): Not a Socially Responsible Product
(WAIT FOR PAGE TO LOAD COMPLETELY BEFORE LINKS WORK.)
Company Profile
Company History
News
Comparison with Peers
Bond Issue
Zenith Index
Financial Statements
Financial Ratios
Market Grader
Intrinsic Value (Disc. CashFlow)
Intrinsic Value (Proj. Earnings)
Scout Stock Rating
Projected Earnings
Research Reports
Analysts' Opinions
Insider Activity
Institutional Activity
Sentiment
Short Interest
Stock Report
Management's Discussion
Moving Average Chart
Right Time Study
Channel Potential
Intraday Chart
Stock Fetcher
Point & Figure Chart
Wall Street Analyzer
Marketspace Chart
Time Series Forecast
Neural Network Prediction
Stock Options
Ultimate Trading Systems
Recommendation
Corporate Wepages
Company Profile |
Company History |
News |
Comparison |
Similar Companies Performance:
Bond Issue |
Zenith Index |
Alliance One International, Inc (AOI ) Sector: Consumer Goods
8001 Aerial Center Parkway Industry: Tobacco Products, Other
Morrisville, NC 27560-8417 Exchange: NYSE
Alliance One International, Inc. engages in purchasing, processing,
storing, and selling leaf tobacco to cigarette manufacturers and
other consumer tobacco products in the United States, South America,
Europe, and Asia. It offers flue-cured, burley, and oriental
tobaccos. The company also provides processing and related services
to manufacturers of tobacco products. Alliance One International,
Inc. was founded in 1904 and is headquartered in Morrisville, North
Carolina.
Last Trade: 5.60 52-Week Range: 5.85 - 2.22
Trade Date: 01-07 Avg. Volume: 820,147 Shares
Index Membership: S&P 600 SmallCap Employees: 4,700
Corporate Governance:
Alliance One International, Inc.'s Corporate Governance Quotient
(CGQ-«) as of 3-Jan-10 is better than 90.1% of S&P 600 companies and
89.1% of Food Beverage & Tobacco companies.
EPS: 1.17 Dividend Amount: $ 0.00 Yield: 0.00%
Ex-Dividend Date: 07-Sep-05 Mkt Cap: $ 498,890K
Payout Ratio: 0.00%
Last Split Factor (new for old): N/A Split Date: N/A
Key Statistics:
Enterprise Value: $ 1,620,000K Revenue (ttm) : $ 2,290,000K
Gross Profit: $ 360,840K
Earnings before Income Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $ 267,020K
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm): 0.71 Revenue per Share: $ 25.85
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm): 6.07 Qtrly Rev Growth (y to y): 13.10%
P/E Ratio (fwd projected): 0.00 P/E Ratio (current): 4.78
P/E Growth Ratio (5 yr expected): 0.00 Operating Margin: 10.50%
Price/Sales Ratio: 0.22 Profit Margin: 4.81%
Price/Book Value: 1.51 Book Value: $ 3.79/sh.
Return on Assets: 7.65% Net Income Avl to Common: $ 109,970K
Return on Equity: 37.88% Diluted Earnings/Share: $ 1.17
Qrtly Earnings Growth (yoy): 0.00%
Balance Sheet Items : Cash Flow Items (ttm):
(most recent qrtr) (trailing 12 mo.)
Total Cash: $ 97,520K Operating Cash Flow:$ 155,270K
Total Debt: $ 1,210,000K Lvgd Free Cash Flow:$ 51,620K
Total Debt/Equity: 0.00
Total Cash/Share: $ 1.10
Current Ratio: 2.25
Share Statistics: Stock Price History:
Shares Outstanding: 89,090K Stk 52-Week Change: 108.18%
Float: 84,190K S&P 500 52-Wk Chng: 25.50%
Sh. Short % of Float: 11.70% 50-Day Moving Avg: 4.87
Short Ratio: 20.30 200-Day Moving Avg: 4.45
% Held by Institutions: 92.90% Beta: 0.49
% Held by Insiders: 5.10%
Analysts' Estimates: Cur. Qtr Next Qtr Cur. Year Next Year
___________________________ Dec-09 Mar-10 Mar-10 Mar-11
Average Earnings Estimate 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Average Revenue Estimate 0M 0M 0M 0M
Factors Comparing This Company to Its Industry Leader (1.0 = Average):
Long Term EPS Growth Rate (5 yr): 0.000 EPS Growth (Qrtly YoY): 0.000
PEG Ratio (ttm, 5 yr expected): 0.000 P/E Ratio (ttm): 0.541
Revenue Growth (Qrtly YoY): 0.000
Annual Income Statements: All numbers in thousands)
Period Ending 31-Mar-09 31-Mar-08 31-Mar-07
Total Revenue 2,258,219 2,011,503 1,979,078
Cost of Revenue 1,897,380 1,761,111 1,683,339
Gross Profit 360,839 250,392 295,739
Operating Expenses:
Research & Development 0 0 0
Selling, General & Administrative 156,000 157,405 152,266
Non-Recurring Expenses 377 -608 29,773
Other Operating Expenses 0 0 0
Total Operating Expenses 0 0 0
Operating Income or Loss 204,462 93,595 113,700
Income from Continuing Operations:
Total Other Income/Expenses Net 2,854 10,336 5,021
Earnings Before Interest & Taxes 207,316 103,931 118,721
Interest Expense 97,984 101,885 105,635
Income Before Taxes 109,332 2,046 13,086
Income Tax Expense -22,020 -5,499 16,062
Minority Interest -679 -368 -653
Net Income from Continuing Op.s 132,151 9,006 -2,615
Non-recurring Events:
Discontinued Operations 407 7,855 -18,730
Extraordinary Items 0 0 0
Effect of Accounting Changes 0 0 -252
Other Items 0 0 0
Net Income 132,558 16,861 -21,597
Preferred Stock & Other Adjustmnts 0 0 0
Net Income Avail To Common Shares 132,558 16,861 -21,597
Quarterly Income Statements: All numbers in thousands)
Period Ending 30-Sep-09 30-Jun-09 31-Mar-09 31-Dec-08
Total Revenue 675,154 410,484 511,988 689,974
Cost of Revenue 568,328 322,522 427,747 570,484
Gross Profit 106,826 87,962 84,241 119,490
Operating Expenses:
Research & Development 0 0 0 0
Selling, General & Adminis. 38,919 36,768 42,356 36,844
Non-Recurring Expenses 0 0 343 -418
Other Operating Expenses 0 0 0 0
Total Operating Expenses 0 0 0 0
Operating Income or Loss 67,907 51,194 41,542 83,064
Income from Continuing Operations:
Total Other Income/Expenses Net -39,099 915 1,283 883
Earnings Before Int. & Taxes 69,096 52,109 42,825 83,947
Interest Expense 32,776 24,968 23,137 24,033
Income Before Taxes 36,320 27,141 19,688 59,914
Income Tax Expense -2,592 12,265 -18,102 697
Minority Interest -481 0 -321 -113
Net Income from Continuing Op.s -1,376 14,876 37,450 59,502
Non-recurring Events:
Discontinued Operations 0 0 -16 -40
Extraordinary Items 0 0 0 0
Effect of Accounting Changes 0 0 0 0
Other Items 0 0 0 0
Net Income -1,857 14,876 37,434 59,462
Preferred Stock & Other Adj.s 399 -399 0 0
Net Income Avail To Common Shs -1,458 14,477 37,434 59,462
Annual Balance Sheets: All Numbers in Thousands
Period Ending 31-Mar-09 31-Mar-08 31-Mar-07
Current Assets:
Cash & Cash Equivalents 87,665 112,214 80,258
Short Term Investments 23,469 0 0
Net Receivables 372,126 327,663 330,264
Inventory 691,600 693,707 651,091
Other Current Assets 57,403 58,286 70,021
Total Current Assets 1,232,263 1,191,870 1,131,634
Long-Term Investments 21,675 21,582 21,302
Property, Plant & Equipt 202,954 218,277 262,068
Goodwill 2,794 2,794 4,186
Intangible Assets 47,083 35,205 30,923
Accumulated Amortization 0 0 0
Other Assets 95,640 135,610 116,621
Deferred Long Term Asset Charges 156,110 107,527 87,138
Total Assets 1,758,519 1,712,865 1,653,872
Current Liabilities:
Accounts Payable 306,445 345,415 404,944
Short/Current Long Term Debt 304,980 406,161 184,328
Other Current Liabilities 0 81 10,379
Total Current Liabilities 611,425 751,657 599,651
Long Term Debt 652,584 563,973 726,625
Other Liabilities 155,500 171,618 87,730
Deferred LT Liability Charges 8,230 10,527 10,895
Minority Interest 4,119 3,623 3,425
Negative Goodwill 0 0 0
Total Liabilities 1,431,858 1,501,398 1,428,326
Stockholder Equity:
Misc. Stocks Options Warrants 0 0 0
Redeemable Perferred Stock 0 0 0
Preferred Stock 0 0 0
Common Stock 468,195 462,798 459,563
Retained Earnings -128,409 -258,395 -241,534
Treasury Stock 0 0 0
Capital Surplus 0 0 0
Other Stockholder Equity -13,125 7,064 7,517
Total Stockholder Equity 326,661 211,467 225,546
Net Tangible Assets 276,784 173,468 190,437
Quarterly Balance Sheets: All Numbers in Thousands
Period Ending 30-Sep-09 30-Jun-09 31-Mar-09 31-Dec-08
Current Assets:
Cash & Cash Equivalents 102,110 67,630 87,665 74,607
Short Term Investments 0 12,932 23,469 43,502
Net Receivables 244,570 378,018 372,126 455,864
Inventory 851,510 930,276 691,600 682,441
Other Current Assets 246,005 75,888 57,403 57,506
Total Current Assets 1,441,902 1,464,744 1,232,263 1,313,920
Long-Term Investments 21,283 21,674 21,675 21,694
Property, Plant & Equipt 196,114 199,273 202,954 206,469
Goodwill 47,578 2,794 2,794 2,794
Intangible Assets 0 46,272 47,083 40,112
Accumulated Amortization 0 0 0 0
Other Assets 96,043 112,107 95,640 103,172
Deferred LT Asset Charges 0 0 0 26
Total Assets 1,992,495 2,004,764 1,758,519 1,794,531
Current Liabilities:
Accounts Payable 256,039 762,039 306,445 258,911
Current Portion LT Debt 384,400 15,603 304,980 554,558
Other Current Liabilities 0 0 0 0
Total Current Liabilities 640,439 777,642 611,425 813,495
Long Term Debt 824,046 697,792 652,584 530,651
Other Liabilities 178,341 170,111 155,500 136,899
Deferred LT Liab. Charges 7,951 8,398 8,230 9,622
Minority Interest 4,268 4,540 4,119 3,621
Negative Goodwill 0 0 0 0
Total Liabilities 1,014,606 1,658,483 1,431,858 1,494,288
Stockholder Equity:
Misc. Options, WarrantS 0 0 0 0
Redeemable Perferred Stock 0 0 0 0
Preferred Stock 0 0 0 0
Common Stock 712,566 470,093 468,195 465,426
Retained Earnings -115,390 -113,932 -128,409 -165,844
Treasury Stock 0 0 0 0
Capital Surplus 0 0 0 0
Other Stockholder Equity -9,726 -9,880 -13,125 661
Total Stockholder Equity 337,450 346,281 326,661 300,243
Net Tangible Assets 289,872 297,215 276,784 257,337
Annual Cash Flow: All Numbers in Thousands
Period Ending 31-Mar-09 31-Mar-08 31-Mar-07
Net Income 132,558 14,876 -21,597
Operating Activites:
Depreciation 34,256 44,057 46,541
Adjustments to Net Income 1,453 -13,566 20,718
Changes in Accounts Recv'bls -38,575 40,784 105,584
Changes in Liabilities -15,079 2,111 -181,594
Changes in Inventories 10,383 -45,093 205,611
Changes in Other Op'ing Actv's -91,366 -7,325 12,210
Total Cash Flow fr Operations 33,630 37,829 187,473
Investing Activities:
Capital Expenditures -15,942 -17,899 -15,224
Investments -12,581 0 5,737
Other Cash Flows fr Investing -3,691 75,260 53,798
Total Cash Flows fr Investing -32,214 57,361 44,311
Financing Acitivies:
Dividends Paid 0 0 0
Sale or Purchase of Stock 0 1,632 7,259
Net Borrowings -15,815 -70,715 -186,321
Other Cash Flows fr Financing 350 668 0
Total Cash Flows fr Financing -15,465 -68,415 -179,062
Effect of Exchange Rate Changes -10,500 5,181 1,551
Change in Cash & Cash Equiv.s 24,549 -24,549 31,956
Quarterly Cash Flow: All Numbers in Thousands
Period Ending 30-Sep-09 30-Jun-09 31-Mar-09 31-Dec-08
Net Income -1,857 14,876 37,434 59,462
Operating Activites:
Depreciation 10,789 9,194 40,699 -23,488
Adjustments to Net Income 52,883 4,571 1,876 15,590
Changes in Accounts Recv'bls 4,565 -4,565 50,393 -65,464
Changes in Liabilities -63,497 63,497 63,362 -50,538
Changes in Inventories 242,732 -242,732 30,728 187,669
Changes in Other Oper'g Acts -227,991 -4,209 -100,883 49,690
Total Cash Flow f Operations 18,105 0 -159,368 123,609
Investing Activities:
Capital Expenditures -3,115 -3,103 519 -5,726
Investments 0 -5,026 1,816 -14,397
Other Cash Flows fr Investing -2,350 2,671 -5,317 0
Total Cash Flows fr Investing -5,465 -5,458 -2,982 -23,962
Financing Acitivies:
Dividends Paid 0 0 0 0
Sale or Purchase of Stock 0 0 -348 348
Net Borrowings 98,682 144,111 -107,140 -152,590
Other Cash Flows fr Financing 0 0 350 0
Total Cash Flows fr Financing 17,095 144,111 -107,138 -152,242
Effect of Exchange Rate Chg 159 680 -431 -5,978
Change in Cash & Cash Equiv. 29,894 -20,035 13,058 -9,261
AOI Alliance One International, Inc. [Indices near +3.0 or near zero,
or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28? 3.0000 P/E Ratio > 5? 0.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate: -2.0000 Forward P/E Ratio < 28? 0.0000
Sales Tests:
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3? 3.0000 Inventory/Sales < 5%? 0.1633
Sales < $1 billion? 0.4428 Operating Margin < 7.5%? 0.7143
Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity < 0.40? 1.0000 Long-Term Debt Service: 0.5006
LTD Being Reduced? 0.6000 Short-Term Debt Service: 2.7251
Current Ratio > 2? 1.1255 Working Capital >= 1.5? 0.8883
Leverage Ratio < 20%? 0.5127 Debt / Assets < 1? 2.6947
Quick Ratio > 1? 0.5413 Inventory Turnover > 1? 3.0000
Shares Out Decreasing? 1.8000 Market Cap.> 1.5 Billion? 3.0000
Profit Margin > 7.5%? 0.6413
Income Tests:
Dividend Yield > 2.0%? 0.0000 EPS Annual Growth > 10%? 0.0000
Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.4733 EPS 5-yr Growth > 20%? 0.0000
Enterprise Value/EBITDA: 0.8674 EPS Growth Consistent? 1.2000
EPS Qrtly Growth > 10%? 0.0000 Collection < 45 days? 0.7482
Rev. Qtrly Growth > 15%? 1.9650 Gross Pft/Cur. LTD < 1? 0.5234
EPS Annual Growth > 10%? 0.0000 Borrowing Int. Rate< 6%? 0.6776
Stock Performance Tests:
Volatility > 25%? 3.0000 % Held by Insiders < 5%? 0.9804
Beta > 1.25? 0.3920 % Held by Institut. < 50? 0.5382
50 Da MA > 200 Da MA? 0.2250 % Held by Institut. > 30? 3.0000
52-Wk Change vs. S&P 500: 1.7001 Short Ratio > 5? 3.0000
Price/Book Value < 3? 2.4900 Short % of Float > 20? 0.5850
Return on Assets > 17%? 0.4500 Average Volume > 100,000? 3.0000
Cash Flow Tests:
Oper. C.F. > Lever'd C.F: 3.0000 Positive Free Cash Flow? 1.0000
Positive Oper. Cash Flow? 1.0000 Price to C.F./sh. Ratio: 0.6903
Cash Flow / Assets >.10? 0.2591
AOI Alliance One International Overall Zenith Index: 1.1668
Financial Statements |
Financial Ratios |
. . . . . . . . . . . . 1 = Highest , 10 = Lowest
Market Grader |
Intrinsic Value |
Intrinsic Value by Discounted Cash Flow Method:
Intrinsic Value |
Intrinsic Value by Projected Earnings Growth Method:
Stock Scout |
We find "Scout" to be a bit biased toward the high end, so anything under a 6 is considered a negative, 6 and above, positive.
Projected Earnings |
Research Reports |
Analysts' Opinions |
Insider Activity |
Institutional Activity |
Institutional Orders to Buy or Sell:
Sentiment |
Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.
Short Interest Ratio |
As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.
Stock Report |
Management's Discussion of Results of Operations Excerpts |
Moving Average Chart |
Right Time Study |
Channeling Potential |
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility. Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.
Results for Alliance One International:
Symbol? AOI
Total Months Available: 56
Months in Cycle? 4
Months Covered by Periods: 12
Period 1 Period 2 Period 3
H1 L1 H2 L2 H3 L3
4.25 2.22 5.71 3.45 5.23 3.78
RANGE = 5.71 TO 2.22 Close = 5.01
CHANNEL = 4.25 TO 3.78 Degree = 1
Volatility = 9.38% Index = 0
Intraday Chart |
20 Days:
Stock Fetcher |
Point & Figure Chart |
Wall Street Analyzer |
Marketspace Chart |
Time Series Forecast |
Neural Network Prediction |
"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."
Ultimate Trading Systems |
The "ultimate systems" are inconclusive, giving no clear confirmed signals.
The corresponding trades for the above chart are shown in tabular form below.
Recommendation |
| Factors | Weighted Points |
|---|---|
| News | - 1 |
| Comparison | - 1 |
| Industry | + 1 |
| Bond Issue | - 1 |
| Zenith Index | - 1 |
| GAAP vs. non-GAAP Earnings < 1% | + 1 |
| Cash Flow | + 1 |
| Ratios | - 1 |
| Market Grader | - 1 |
| Intrinsic Value DCF | + 1 |
| Intrinsic Value DDM | 0 |
| Stock Scout | + 1 |
| Projected Earnings | - 1 |
| Research Reports | - 1 |
| Analysts | - 1 |
| Executive Perquisites | + 1 |
| Insider Activity | 0 |
| Institutional Activity | + 1 |
| Management Reporting | + 1 |
| Short Interest | - 1 |
| Sentiment | + 1 |
| Standard & Poor's | - 1 |
| Moving Average | + 1 |
| Right Time Study | + 1 |
| Stock Fetcher | - 1 |
| Point & Figure | + 1 |
| Wall Street Analyzer | - 1 |
| Marketspace Chart | + 1 |
| Time Series Chart | - 1 |
| Neural Network | - 1 |
| Stock Options | + 1 |
| Ultimate Trading Systems | 0 |
| Total | - 1 |
Place 6,100 shares of Alliance One International Inc. (AOI) on the Active List.
