Corporate Webpages Amedisys Corporation
If we look at a daily chart, we see Amedisys Corp. took a big
plunge last year just after the 1st of September. We think this
is a sufficiently-important event to merit inclusion of a news
item describing it which is quoted below.
The company provides home care services to the elderly. It has been using financing
to make acquisitions and grow larger and operates from its headquarters in Louisiana
in most of the parts of the U.S.
The business is highly competitive. Our favorite analysts and researchers are all
pretty much liking this company. It has high intrinsic value (growth potential.)
Zenith Index gave it a negative rating because we thought we detected some reporting
irregularities and/or lateness filing reports.
In general, this appears to be a well-managed company who occasional ups and downs
with the economy are occasions to bring out the value that others see in it. The company
is in a high-growth area which may get considerable stimulus from healthcare plan
changes if Massachusetts votes the right way (which at the time of this writing, we
don't know if they will.)
01-19-2010: Amedisys Corporation (AMED): Medicaid/Medicare Demands Efficiency
(WAIT FOR PAGE TO LOAD COMPLETELY BEFORE LINKS WORK.)
Company Profile
Company History
News
Comparison with Peers
Bond Issue
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Financial Statements
Financial Ratios
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Intrinsic Value (Disc. CashFlow)
Intrinsic Value (Proj. Earnings)
Scout Stock Rating
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Research Reports
Analysts' Opinions
Insider Activity
Institutional Activity
Sentiment
Short Interest
Stock Report
Management's Discussion
Moving Average Chart
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Channel Potential
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Wall Street Analyzer
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Recommendation
Yesterday, 9/3/09, the COO of Amedisys (AMED) left the company. Ditto the CIO. AMED tanked more than
25% on the news. It ended the day down about $10 at $34.04. The CFO did not quit. There does not appear
to be anything demonstrably wrong with the company. The CEO is still there. In fact it seems the
COO left because he was not going to be made CEO as quickly as he had been led to expect.
In other words, he was a very disappointed, very ambitious corporate officer. The CIO's job is
being split into two different jobs. Perhaps the CIO left in response to a request that she cede
some of her power. Perhaps the CIO was a big supporter of the COO (and vice versa).
AMED gives every indication of a great company. It is now trading at about 7 * 2009 earnings.
This seems to be a bargain. It looks even better when you see that the analysts have raised
their earnings estimates for FY 2009 by more than 15% over the last 90 days. They have raised
FY 2010 estimates substantially also. AMED beat earnings estimates by almost 25% last quarter.
AMED has beaten estimates each of the last four quarters. Good signs about a company don’t
get much better.
Why then did it tank so badly? The answer is simply that the rash actions of a couple of ambitious
corporate officers made the company look as if something might be drastically wrong. Taking time
for a more sanguine inspection, this does not seem to be the case. The CFO did not quit.
The CEO did not quit. The company’s prospects are still great. The COO left at least partially
because the CEO did not intend to leave soon, so AMED still has good continuity with both
the CEO and the CFO still there (as well as everyone other than the COO and CIO).
This does not look like a company in trouble. It looks like a victim of a drastic over reaction
to some unfortunate news. In all likelihood the company will go on as before. It will do great.
The only question remains how to act. I say buy. Sidoti raised the company to buy this afternoon
based on the new lower price. Likely a few more analysts will up their ratings of AMED today (9/4/09)
based on its new lower price. This will likely cause a good push upward in price over the near term.
There is overhead resistance at $36.75 and $38.08. Judging from the size of yesterday’s seemingly
unfounded loss, I would expect the price to rise at least 50% from the 9/3/09 closing price. This
means it should make it over the $38 mark, which is a point of good support/resistance.
It may even do this Friday.
I actually see no reason why this stock should not return to its recent price of about $44 quickly.
However, the equities markets have generally been trending down lately, so I would prefer to be
conservative in my estimates. I think AMED should return to at least $38 within the next two
weeks. I do not think high strung, ambitious officers are really a sign of a poorly managed company.
Good luck with this trade.
At the time the article was written, the author showed good ability to
predict what would happen next.
Corporate Wepages
Company Profile |
Company History |
News |
Comparison |
Similar Companies Performance:
Bond Issue |
Zenith Index |
AMED AMEDISYS INC
Exchange: NASD Group: Medical Industry: MED-OUTP/HM CRE
Rank of Industry: 38 Rank within Industry: 12 out of 35
Shares Out: 27.96 (mil.) Market Capitalization: $ 1,489.36 (mil.)
Sales (12 mo.): $ 0.00 (mil.) Sales Growth: 20.74%
Avg Broker Recommend (1=Strong Buy): 1.47 Consensus Target: 59.62
Dividend:$ 0.00 Yield: 0.00% Payout Ratio: 0.00 Payout Chg: 0.00%
Amedisys, Inc. is a leading multi-regional provider of home health
care nursing services. They operate home care nursing offices in
southern and southeastern United States.
Recent Price: 53.26 52-Week High: 54.99 52-Week Low: 25.20
20-Day Avg. Daily Volume = 975,442 Beta: 0.75
Earnings per Share (EPS) Estimates:
This Next This Next
Quarter Quarter Year Year
12/2009 03/2010 12/2009 12/2010
Average Estimate 1.32 1.19 4.87 5.10
Number of Estimates 15 13 15 15
Low Estimate 1.24 1.00 4.80 4.36
High Estimate 1.37 1.27 4.92 5.40
Year Ago EPS 0.98 0.99 3.31 4.87
EPS Growth 34.56% 20.59% 47.23% 4.61%
P/E Ratio Related Data: EPS Sales
Current FY Estimate: 10.45 Growth Growth
Trailing 12 Months: 11.76 vs. Previous Quarter: 1.57% 2.74%
P/E Growth Ratio: 0.53 vs. Previous Year: 44.94% 20.74%
Price/Sales Ratio: 0.00 Price/Book Ratio: 2.16 Price/Cash Flow: 12.98
Other Fundamental Data:
12/31/09 09/30/09 06/30/09
Return on Investment 0.00 20.02 19.36
Return on Assets 0.00 11.40 10.52
Current Ratio 0.00 0.86 0.80
Quick Ratio 0.00 0.86 0.80
Operating Margin 0.00 8.60 8.17
Net Margin 0.00 14.00 13.20
Pre-Tax Margin 0.00 0.00 0.00
Book Value 0.00 20.87 17.06
Inventory Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.00
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.00 0.26 0.31
Debt-to-Capital Ratio 0.00 20.73 23.45
Reported and Estimated Quarterly Earnings:
Reported 09/2009 06/2009 03/2009 12/2008
1.29 1.27 0.99 0.98
Estimated 12/2009 03/2010 12/2009 12/2010
Consensus 7 Days Ago 1.32 1.19 4.87 5.10
Upward Revisions 0 0 0 0
Downward Revisions 0 0 0 0
Consensus 30 Days Ago 1.32 1.19 4.87 5.09
Upward Revisions 0 0 0 1
Downward Revisions 1 0 1 0
Annual Income Statements ($mil except EPS data):
12/31/09 12/31/08 12/31/07 12/31/06 12/31/05
Sales 0.00 1.00 697.93 541.14 381.55
Cost of Goods 0.00 562.63 308.73 235.45 163.03
Gross Profit 0.00 624.78 389.20 305.69 218.52
Selling, Deprec, Amort Expense 0.00 467.67 184.98 240.02 168.42
Income After Deprec + Amortization 0.00 157.11 204.22 65.67 50.10
Non-Operating Income 0.00 0.88 -99.95 1.14 1.57
Interest Expense 0.00 16.62 0.83 4.90 2.93
Pretax Income 0.00 141.35 103.41 61.89 48.74
Income Taxes 0.00 54.71 38.29 23.64 18.63
Minority Interest 0.00 -0.04 0.01 0.00 0.00
Investment Gains/Losses 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other Income/Charges 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Income from Continuing Operations 0.00 86.68 65.11 38.25 30.10
Extras + Discontined Operations 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Net Income 0.00 86.68 65.11 38.25 30.10
Income before Depr. + Amortization 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Depreciation + Amort. (Cash Flow) 0.00 21.61 13.77 10.55 6.97
Average Shares -9.00 26.28 22.29 21.29 0.00
Diluted EPS bf Non-Recurring Items -9.00 2.32 1.72 1.41 0.00
Diluted Net EPS -9.00 2.48 1.72 1.41 0.00
Balance Sheets ($mil. except per share data):
12/31/09 12/31/08 12/31/07 12/31/06 12/31/05
Assets:
Cash + Equivalents -199.00 56.19 89.01 17.23 0.00
Receivables 0.00 96.30 74.92 68.13 0.00
Notes Receivable 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Inventories 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other Current Assets 0.00 12.01 15.25 6.97 0.00
Total Current Assets 0.00 164.51 179.20 92.34 0.00
Property, Plant & Equipment 0.00 68.31 52.96 27.38 0.00
Investments + Advances 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other Non-Current Assets 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Deferred Charges 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Intangibles 0.00 346.83 225.76 208.44 0.00
Deposits + Other Assets 0.00 7.40 5.80 11.80 0.00
Total Assets 0.00 587.11 463.75 339.99 0.00
12/31/09 12/31/08 12/31/07 12/31/06 12/31/05
Liabilities:
Notes Payable 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Accounts Payable 0.00 14.43 14.33 29.92 0.00
Current Portion Long-Term Debt 0.00 11.04 3.22 10.14 0.00
Current Portion Capital Leases 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Accrued Expenses 0.00 66.66 46.58 45.16 0.00
Income Taxes Payable 0.00 6.77 11.63 4.17 0.00
Other Current Liabilities 0.00 2.81 6.13 10.55 0.00
Total Current Liabilities 0.00 101.73 81.91 99.95 0.00
Mortgages 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Deferred Income Taxes 0.00 18.49 10.78 3.55 0.00
Convertible Debt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Long-Term Debt 0.00 12.99 2.11 43.06 0.00
Non-Current Capital Leases 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other Non-Current Liabilities 0.00 6.06 4.93 0.82 0.00
Minority Interest 0.00 0.84 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total Liabilities 0.00 140.14 99.74 147.39 0.00
12/31/09 12/31/08 12/31/07 12/31/06 12/31/05
Shareholder Equity:
Preferred Stock 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Common Sock 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00
Capital Surplus 0.00 297.80 279.55 146.68 0.00
Retained Earnings 0.00 149.57 84.80 46.55 0.00
Other Equity 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.60 0.00
Treasury Stock 0.00 0.43 0.37 0.00 0.00
Total Shareholder Equity 0.00 561.33 446.97 %364192.59 0.0
0
Total Liabilities+ Owners' Equity 0.00 587.11 463.75 339.99 0.00
Total Common Equity 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shares Outstanding 27.90 26.90 26.20 25.60 0.00
Book Value per Share 0.00 20.87 17.06 14.22 9.17
Cash Flow Statement:
Operations, Investments, & Financial Activities
12/31/09 12/31/08 12/31/07 12/31/06 12/31/05
Net Income 0.00 86.68 65.11 38.25 30.10
Depreciation/Amortization + Deplet 0.00 21.61 13.77 10.55 6.97
Net Change in Assets/Liab. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Net Cash f Discontinued Operations 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other Operating Activities 0.00 72.67 20.30 32.14 17.27
Net Cash f Operating Activities 0.00 150.74 93.08 43.08 43.54
Property + Equipment 0.00 -29.60 -25.49 -29.18 -20.18
Acquisition/Disp. of Subsidiaries 0.00 -471.31 -102.29 -14.07 -144.51
Investments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other Investing Activity 0.00 -4.73 3.46 -4.79 0.00
Net Cash from Investing 0.00 -505.65 -124.32 -48.06 -132.70
Use of Funds
12/31/09 12/31/08 12/31/07 12/31/06 12/31/05
Issue (Repurchase) Capital Stock 0.00 6.65 6.32 122.75 5.49
Issuance (Repayment) of Debt 0.00 295.58 -4.77 -52.02 47.50
Increase/Decrease Short-Term Debt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -2.51
Dividends + Distributions 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other Financing Acitivies 0.00 -0.66 1.65 1.23 -1.77
Net Cash from Financing 0.00 301.56 3.20 71.97 48.71
Effect of Exchange Rate Changes 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Net Change in Cash + Equivalents 0.00 -53.34 -28.03 66.99 -40.44
Net Change in Cash & Equivalents
12/31/09 12/31/08 12/31/07 12/31/06 12/31/05
Cash at Beginning of Per. 0.00 56.19 84.22 17.23 57.67
Cash at End of Period 0.00 2.84 56.19 84.22 17.23
Net Change in Cash + Equivalents 0.00 -53.34 -28.03 66.99 -40.44
[Indices near +3.0, or near zero,
or < zero bear special attention.]
P/E Ratio Tests:
Current P/E Ratio < 28? 2.3810 P/E Ratio > 5? 1.0000
P/E Ratio Vs Growth Rate: 3.0000 Forward P/E Ratio < 28? 3.0000
Sales Tests:
Sales < $500 mil.? 3.0000 Sales incr. 25% Yearly? 0.0011
Sales > $340 million? 0.0029 Inventory/Sales < 5%? 1.0000
Balance Sheet Tests:
Debt/Equity Ratio < 0.40? 1.5385 LTD/Net Assets: 0.0000
Debt Reduction: -3.0000 Intangibles/Assets < 10%? 0.1693
Current Ratio > 2? 0.8600 Return on Equity > 9.8%? 2.0429
Earnings Tests:
EPS 5-Yr. Growth > 18%? 0.0000 Operating Margin > 5%? 0.5814
EPS Annual Growth > 0%? 3.0000 Dividend Rate cp 2.7%: 0.0000
Earnings Consistent? 2.0000 Payout Ratio Decreasing? 0.0000
Net Income Increasing 25%? 1.0650 Price<15% below 52-wk Hi? 1.1138
Positive Cash Flow / Earn? 3.0000 Price/Book X PE < 22? 0.8661
Profit Margin > 7.5%? 3.0000 Price/Book < 1.6? 0.7407
Profit Margin Increasing? 3.0000 Stock Compared to S+P 500: 1.0000
Price & Float Tests:
Return on Investment>17%? 1.1776 Shares Out > 30 mil.? 0.9320
Price Range 7-20? 1.0186 Beta: 0.7500
Price/Sales Ratio < 2.3? 1.0000 Liquidity > 2%? 3.0000
Ownership Tests:
Analyst Following > 2.0? 2.0408 Market Capital'n > 150M? 3.0000
Owner's Equity Increasing? 0.0000 Shares Out Decreasing? 0.9176
AMED Overall Zenith Index: 1.0200
Financial Statements |
Financial Ratios |
. . . . . . . . . . . . 1 = Highest , 10 = Lowest
Market Grader |
Intrinsic Value |
Intrinsic Value by Discounted Cash Flow Method:
Intrinsic Value |
Intrinsic Value by Projected Earnings Growth Method:
Stock Scout |
We find "Scout" to be a bit biased toward the high end, so anything under a 6 is considered a negative, 6 and above, positive.
Projected Earnings |
Research Reports |
Analysts' Opinions |
Insider Activity |
Institutional Activity |
Institutional Orders to Buy or Sell:
Sentiment |
Zenith uses the "sentiment" score above or below 50 to award a positive or negative point in the Decision Matrix.
Short Interest Ratio |
As the short interest rises as a percentage of average daily share volume (Days to Cover), this is considered a measure of negative sentiment. Similarly, a decrease in that percentage is considered positive sentiment.
Stock Report |
Management's Discussion of Results of Operations Excerpts |
Moving Average Chart |
Right Time Study |
Channeling Potential |
The summary below includes a value for `Degree,' which refers on a
scale of 1 to 10 the range of a channel in the period under consi-
deration compared to the total range of price movement. It also looks
for the last closing price to be within the channel, otherwise zeroed.
The `Index' is the `Degree' weighted for volatility. Generally, the
the higher the index, the more suitable is the stock for trading as
a `rolling stock' between channel high and low points.
Results for Amedisys Corp.:
Symbol? AMED
Total Months Available: 24
Months in Cycle? 4
Months Covered by Periods: 12
Period 1 Period 2 Period 3
H1 L1 H2 L2 H3 L3
53.30 25.20 46.65 28.90 52.61 29.71
RANGE = 53.30 TO 25.20 Close = 49.50
CHANNEL = 46.65 TO 29.71 Degree = 6
Volatility = 34.22% Index = 20
Intraday Chart |
20 Days:
Stock Fetcher |
Point & Figure Chart |
Wall Street Analyzer |
Marketspace Chart |
Time Series Forecast |
Neural Network Prediction |
"Neurostock" can only track long trades. Therefore its performance, as tracked by itself on stocks which are consistently falling, may not appear as good as it could if each "sell" signal were a "short sale."
Ultimate Trading Systems |
The corresponding trades for the above chart are shown in tabular form below.
Recommendation |
| Factors | Weighted Points |
|---|---|
| News | + 1 |
| Comparison | - 1 |
| Industry | - 1 |
| Bond Issue | 0 |
| Zenith Index | - 1 |
| GAAP vs. non-GAAP Earnings < 1% | + 1 |
| Cash Flow | + 1 |
| Ratios | + 1 |
| Market Grader | + 1 |
| Intrinsic Value DCF | + 1 |
| Intrinsic Value DDM | + 1 |
| Stock Scout | + 1 |
| Projected Earnings | + 1 |
| Research Reports | + 1 |
| Analysts | + 1 |
| Executive Perquisites | - 1 |
| Insider Activity | - 1 |
| Institutional Activity | + 1 |
| Management Reporting | + 1 |
| Short Interest | + 1 |
| Sentiment | + 1 |
| Standard & Poor's | + 1 |
| Moving Average | + 1 |
| Right Time Study | + 1 |
| Stock Fetcher | - 1 |
| Point & Figure | + 1 |
| Wall Street Analyzer | - 1 |
| Marketspace Chart | + 1 |
| Time Series Chart | - 1 |
| Neural Network | - 1 |
| Stock Options | + 1 |
| Ultimate Trading Systems | + 1 |
| Total | + 13 |
Place 620 shares of Amedisys Corp. (AMED) on the Active List.
