Trade Mark

03-22-2019: Investors Find a Very Large Cascading Negative Shareholder Asset Value for Domino's Pizza.

As fast food restaurants go, Domino's Pizza Inc. (DPZ) is very unusual in one respect. In its effort to expand and become a global leader, it has taken on so much debt recently as to produce a situation of negative shareholder asset value and book value. The amount of asset value negativity is huge for this $15 billion in annual sales company. Franchisees thrive under an aggressive marketing plan emphasizing deliveries, but the top-heavy with debt balance sheet structure poses a possible melddown situation if earnings are not maintained sufficient to pay all the interest.

What could possibly go wrong? The stock has been such a highflier that investors in 2009 could have made 1000% on their money if they stuck with the program all the way through. Now investors who are concerned about something called "valuation" may be having second thoughts. Charts suggest a critical point which may form a support level or a breakout to the downside.

Our recent article on Domino's Pizza Inc. (DPZ) is in the Archives Section Below.

03-22-2019: How Zenith's Website Tries to Help You with Stocks

How is Zenith's stock site useful? Occasioally, we publish an article to try to explain our philosophy for success. The first thing readers need to know is that we don't tell them what to do by picking winners. Our trading track record is spectacular using balanced long and short sales on each stock in our active list, but if you were doing a "buy and hold" or "sell and hold" strategy on each stock in our active list according to our overall recommendation of where we think the stock is apt to go, you would be very disappointed. Here is a current table on where that latter strategy would have ended up:

So the question now becomes, of what use is this website to the reader?

Our premise is that the more you know about a stock and the company behind it, the better off you are trading it. You should be aware of any vulnerabilities that could cause you to wake up one morning and find the share price has declined 20% or more overnight. Or you should have confidence that the investment will withstand negative overall market pressures if you are long.

Zenith's site simply presents information that is generally available elsewhere all over the Internet for free. The problem is that a lot of it is not available all in one place. By the time you are done reading a full article on any particular stock on this site, you should know about as much as any non-insider out there trading the stock. The information is there for you to interpret and judge for yourself, with only a small amount of original conclusion material of our own.

Readers should be aware that unlike our commodities operation which trades only one side of each individual commodity market, our stock trading usually involves equal numbers of long and short trades in each stock. The stock market short-term is very hard to predict, as the following table will indicate regarding our overall track record if you simply took our ultimate conclusion predictions at face value with no further analysis. It notes the original recommendation buy or sell (B or S) and compares that to where the share price actually subsequently went after the corresponding article first came out.


                                        Orig.  Orig.     +/-       Orig.   Cur. 
Ticker Company                  Shares  Rec.  Score      Perform  Price  Price

 CREE  Cree, Inc.                   840   S      -1       -62.08%  35.71  57.88
 NHTC  National Health Trends     1,190   B       6       -49.11%  25.25  12.85
 PBI   Pitney Bowes Corporation   2,400   B       4       -47.17%  12.53   6.62
 EGAN  eGain Corporation          3,800   S      -3       -41.44%   7.89  11.16
 AOBC  American Outdoor Brands    1,900   B       5       -39.62%  15.75   9.51
 IIN   Intricon, Inc.               855   B       1       -36.80%  35.11  22.19
 EDUC  Educational Develmnt Corp  2,900   B      15       -30.72%  10.32   7.15
 MU    Micron Technology Inc.       555   B       2       -25.55%  53.90  40.13
 SSD   Simpson Manufacturing Co.    390   B       7       -23.85%  76.73  58.43
 TWTR  Twitter, Inc.              1,110   S      -4       -20.63%  27.00  32.57
 CMTL  Comtech Telecommunication  1,090   B       6       -19.27%  27.51  22.21
 ANF   Abercrombie & Fitch Co.    1,460   B       8       -10.66%  28.53  25.49
 HEAR  Turtle Beach Corporation   1,200   S      -2        51.45%  24.78  12.03
 VEEV  Veeva Systems, Inc.          335   B       1        39.23%  89.47 124.57
 GLDD  Great Lakes Dredge & Dock  4,700   B       3        30.77%   6.76   8.84
 ETSY  Etsy, Inc.                   560   B       1        29.07%  53.38  68.90
 SGMS  Scientific Games Corp.     1,095   S       0        20.07%  27.35  21.86
 VICR  Vicor Corporation            745   S      -7        20.05%  40.35  32.26
 AMRC  Ameresco Corporation       2,080   B       2        19.85%  14.41  17.27
 VRS   Verso Corporation          1,190   S      -3        18.75%  25.23  20.50
 INFY  Infosys Ltd.               3,240   B       7        18.27%   9.25  10.94
 PAYC  Paycom Software, Inc.        190   B       4        17.31% 155.12 181.97
 GNTX  Gentex Corporation         1,340   B       6        -9.55%  22.41  20.27
 INVA  Innoviva, Inc.             1,970   B       2        -8.60%  15.24  13.93
 SWK   Stanley Black & Decker       210   B       3        -7.95% 143.24 131.85
 DOOR  Masonite International       545   B       2        -7.87%  54.86  50.54
 VCEL  Verticel Corporation       1,740   S      -2        -7.62%  17.20  18.51
 KEM   Kemet Corporation          1,660   B       6        -2.83%  18.02  17.51
 ETN   Eaton Corporation PLC        375   S      -3        -1.83%  79.77  81.23
 WCC   Wesco International Inc.     545   B      11        -0.91%  52.94  52.46
 PYX   Pyxus International Inc.   1,090   B       3         7.96%  27.50  29.69
 IR    Ingersol-Rand PLC            305   B       6         7.91%  97.22 104.91
 ESXB  Community Bankers Trust    3,620   S      -2         7.00%   8.28   7.70
 WLL   Whiting Petroleum Corp.    1,060   S      -9         6.67%  28.64  26.73
 HMSY  HMS Holdings, Inc.           980   B       8         6.66%  30.63  32.67
 XELA  Exela Technologies Corp.   9,999   S      -3         5.15%   3.69   3.50
 CP    Canadian Pacific Railway     160   B       9         5.05% 190.97 200.62
 EVTC  Evertec, Inc.              1,085   B       5         3.30%  27.28  28.18
 COST  Costco Wholesale Corp.       130   B      13         2.46% 231.28 236.98
 DPZ   Domino's Pizza Inc.          120   S      -4         0.00% 243.94 243.94
 
As you can see, the results from simply buying (or selling) and holding according to our initial recommendations would be very disappointing. In fact, we estimate by following our overall Decision Matrix recommendations for each stock article over the past six months or so, your account would be down about 137%. The table is sorted by % gains or losses, so you can see that things have gone terribly wrong on some of our predictions. The stock market is inscrutable, and defies the best minds in the Universe to be able to predict it short term. Long term is a different story. Not all that is known about a stock is out there, and insiders illegally play a significant role in etermining where price is to go, at least short-term. That is why we are equally likely to sell short as to buy long a stock we recommend at any given time based upon short-term parameters, however the long-term prognostication is an important indicator of risk or the likelihood of being trapped in either a meltdown when you are long or a meteoric rise when you are short.

Each article on a stock has a consistent format. We start with a look at the company's own website to see things like if it has more concern for selling its products or more concern for shareholders. Then a look at the history of the company (if available) is often valuable to interpret a longer-term view of where it is going overall.

We try to provide latest and recent historic news next in our standard format, to determine if a stock is a "story stock" or is just chugging along with consistent results. Here we also get an indication of the extent of activity oif a public relations department of a corporation, whether or not it is trying to "influence" the news or not. This varies a lot from corporation to corporation.

We look at comparison with peers to find if the industry group's stocks recent performance is strong or weak, and what some other stocks in a similar business are doing. We subscribe to legendary stock trader Jesse Livermore's theory that a laggard in an group of stocks in the same industry may soon play "catch-up" to the others, so being "behind" is actually a plus, as stocks in the same group often move together.

We regard if a company has issued any (current or previous) bonds at all without defaulting, that is a plus.

The Zenith Index and financial statements check for various forms of "valuation" and share performance, with particular emphasis on non-generally accepted accounting events or lack thereof, such as unusual circumstances like foreign exchange rates or pro-forma statements after acquisitions. We regard the absence of non-GAAP figures as a plus. We also look at net change in cash as a critical factor.

The average to current p/e ratio is a critical way to find "overlooked" stocks. In an aging bull market such as the current one, stocks passing this test are few and far between.

Intrinsic value looks at growth potential for stocks as an indicator, as well as projected earnings (by the often unreliable "analysts") to which many pay attention. Research reports are more reliable and Zenith supplies access to many of them on the particular stock under review to get a consensus. Unlike the "analysts," "researcher organizations" are much more likely to be unbiased by business relationships (like floating new shares) of the company under review. We double-weight some over others depending upon whether or not they are simply "computerized" robots or contain some actual individual analysis by competent analysts.

Institutional activity is critical to where share price may being going as most stocks have 80% or more of outstanding shares held by institutions. Which institutions are buying or selling is also critical, as Dimensional Fund Advisors comes very close to adopting our own selection standards and we think their projected direction for a stock has more meaning than funds like "Oppenheimer" which is poorly managed by buying a "basket" of stocks with little analysis.

A look at "sentiment and short interest" are ways to assess the current popularity of a stock or if it is "in vogue" or not.

Zenith summarizes an SEC reporting requirement "Management Discussion" of results of operations by removing tables and simply regarding the verbage as an indication of corporate strategies and vulnerabilities. The degree of "risk factors" mentioned therein is critical to understanding the riskiness of the underlying stock. Also, this discussion may be full of caveats or brief and to the point, and either clearly written or obscure, with the former being a positive and the latter negative.

One should always be aware if a particular stock is what Wade Cook referred to as a "rolling stock" (channeling) or a "buy or sell and hold stock" (trending), to anticipate next moves. Zenith clearly shows which one a stock is.

Following that there is a host of our various trading systems and indicators for technical chart evaluation of each stock, which is often as important as fundamentals and receives a large portion of our ultimate Decision Matrix conclusion.

We think you will be better prepared by studying each of our articles on individual stocks in depth and in its standard format to trade a stock in and out even in just the short term. You will be able to better anticipate moves if you are familiar with all aspects of what is out there freely available on the Internet. In fact, the key to our approach is indeed "the standard format" in which we try to analyze each stock on the same basis. Doing that will allow you after conveniently finding pretty much all the information that is out there in one convenient spot to anticipate short-term moves much better. Familiarity in this situation definitely does not breed contempt.

The downside of this site is that we only follow a very limited number of stocks. Also, the older the article, the less timely or accurate the information therein. But this site provides a "benchmark" against which you can see if your own trading situation is profitable or less profitable and possibly why. You can challenge your own trading methodology against ours to see where yours is better or worse against "what is possible" in our "Stock Performance" link at the bottom of this page.

Zenith's Active List of 39 Stocks as of 03/23/2019

(Updated once a week, usually on Saturday except when less than 5 trading days in the week.)

Note: Zenith tries to pick only stocks which are shortable, but sometimes stocks appear afterward on the SEC Regulation SHO list of stocks which are not shortable, which is beyond our control. On some stocks, Zenith may hold more than the number of shares it trades in its inventory. Thus the "short" sale of such a security would technically not be a "short" sale for us and not subject to SEC rules regarding selling securities which are not deliverable. Also, stocks pop on and off the list available for shorting on successive days, so the presence of a stock on the current SHO list doesn't mean it was there at the time it was shorted.

Stocks recently restricted by SEC Rule 201 as not shortable unless we already have a position which are on our Active List include: EGAN (9/18), HEAR (7/18). .

Stocks 1
Stocks 2
Stocks 3
Stocks 4
Stocks 5
Stocks 6
Stocks 7

What are the last three entries in the Active Stocks chart list? These represent typical high-, mid-, and low-cap mutual funds to help us gage the tenor of the stock market as a whole.

Archive List

03-22-2019: Domino's Pizza Inc. (DPZ): Large Negative Shareholder Asset Value

03-15-2019: Wesco International Inc. (WCC): Venerable Electric Parts Supplier

03-10-2019: Exela Technologies Corporation (XELA): Who Are Those "Analysts"?

03-01-2019: Eaton Corporation (ETN): Electric Power Products Mfr Based in Ireland

02-22-2019: Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF): Teen and Kid Fashions

02-17-2019: Whiting Petroleum Corporation (WLL): Crude Oil Price Recovery

02-11-2019: HMS Holdings, Inc. (HMSY): Healthcare Management Software

02-04-2019: Kemet Corporation (KET): A Leader in Capacitor Development

01-30-2019: Etsy, Inc. (ETSY): Of Benefit To Whom?

01-23-2019: Ameresco Corporation (AMRC): Energy Saving Infrastructure Improvement

01-18-2019: Verso Corporation (VRS): Struggling Paper & Pulp Industry

01-12-2019: Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. (CP): Iconic and Facing Increased Traffic

01-05-2019: Great Lakes Dredge &I Dock Corporation (GLDD): Dredging Infrastructure Work

12-21-2018: Vericel Corporation (VCEL): Leg Cartilage Injury Medications

12-11-2018: Veeva Systems, Inc. (VEEV): Internet Software or Healthcare Industry Stock?

12-08-2018: Community Bankers Trust (ESXB): Some Information Missing

12-01-2018: Intricon Corporation (IIN): Less Expensive Hearing Devices

11-27-2018: Gentex Corporation (GNTX): Mirrors, Cameras, Remote Control

11-14-2018: Evertec, Inc. (EVTC): Puerto Rican Financial Industry Stock

11-10-2018: Zenith's Monthly Traffic Report for October

11-05-2018: Infosys, Ltd. (INFY): A Large India Information Technology Company

10-31-2018: Comtech Telecommunications, Inc. (CMTL): Commercial and Government

10-27-2018: Masonite International, Inc. (DOOR): Don't Close the Door On It

10-21-2018: Cree, Inc. (CREE): Staving Off Foreign Competition in Lighting and Inverter Products

10-13-2018: Twitter, Inc. (TWTR): Removal of Extremist Accounts Hurts Bottom Line

10-09-2018: Vicor Corporation (VICR): Tech Stock Short Sale Candidate

10-03-2018: Innoviva, Inc. (INVA): Relief for Emphysema Sufferers

09-28-2018: Pyxus International, Inc. (PYX): Hard To Tell What's There

09-23-2018: American Outdoor Brands Corporation (ABOC): Under Pressure from Activists

09-18-2018: eGain Corporation (EGAN): Consistent Losses

09-13-2018: Scientific Games Corporation (SGMS): Competition Thwarts

09-10-2018: Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. (SSD): Correlating Housing Starts

09-05-2018: Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC): Surging on Strong Employment

08-27-2018: Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST): Competing with Wal-Mart

08-22-2018: National Health Trends Corporation (NHTC): 87% of Sales from Hong Kong

08-15-2018: Educational Development Corporation (EDUC): Publisher of Children's Books

08-10-2018: Stanley Black & Decker Inc. (SWK): Huge Acquisitions

08-02-2018: Ingersoll-Rand PLC (IR): Possible False Breakout

07-27-2018: Micron Technology Inc. (MU): Asian Trade War Woes

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Music of Vivian Ellis

Trading in stocks involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future profits.   Zenith does not sell advice nor does it manage discretionary accounts other than its own.  Readers should be aware of the vested interest that all traders / brokers have in encouraging other traders to make the same transactions.    No one should follow investment advice blindly. This web site should be used only as a "sounding board" forconfirming one's own opinion.   Any suggested order placements should be reviewed and reset to fit current market conditions by individual traders.  

Recommendations may include trades which have already been made on the same or a previous day,otherwise the issue is placed on a "watch list."  Suggested stock trades are based upon an approximate maximum $30,000 capitalization requirement per trade.   Zenith's actual trades may be larger.

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