05-12-2012: When Guidance Obscures Value |
Even high risk-takers might like to shy away from a stock which loses 30% of its value in one day not more than a month ago. The cause of this appeared to be a conference call connected to a quarterly report in which the CEO of Sanmina - SCI Corporation (SANM) issued some very conservative "guidance." Sanmina is an electronics manufactuers' service company which helps big companies like IBM and Hewlett Packard design and manufacture new products. It has a heavy presence in the medical device industry. Optimism for the tech sector began to disappear and the guidance didn't help, but share price plunged below book value.
SANM has respectable revenues and earnings potential, althogh its profit margins are being squeezed. This appears to be a solid company that is not about to fold although earnings and cash flow could be somewhat erratic. Nonetheless, we think the fundamentals are strong, despite a substantial debt load.
Our article on Sanmina - SCI Corporation (SANM) is in the Archives Section below.
05-10-2012: Option Trade Suggestions for Helix Energy Solutions Group (HLX) |
These recommendations are based upon Helix stock staying at a target between 18 and 21-1/8 through June expiration and risking about $2,000 capital. They are also based upon a recent closing price of 19.56.
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MASTER RECOMMENDATION LIST TODAY'S DATE: 5/9/12
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Recommended Trade Exp.Ret. St.Dev
----------------- ------- ------
1. HLX S 3 Jun20c @0.85, S 3 Jun19p @0.85 +308 126
2. HLX S 3 Jun19c @1.35, S 3 Jun20p @1.30 +267 104
3. HLX S 3 Jun20c @0.85, S 3 Jun20p @1.30 +289 171
4. HLX S 3 Jun21c @0.45, S 3 Jun19p @0.85 +263 102
5. HLX S 3 Jun19c @1.35, S 3 Jun19p @0.85 +286 191
6. HLX S 3 Jun21c @0.45, S 3 Jun18p @0.50 +216 12
7. HLX S 3 Jun20c @0.85, S 3 Jun18p @0.50 +261 124
8. HLX S 4 Jun19p @0.85 +226 136
9. HLX S 4 Jun18p @0.50 +164 0
10. HLX S 4 Jun24c @0.09, S 4 Jun18p @0.50 +163 0
11. HLX S 3 Jun21c @0.45, S 3 Jun20p @1.30 +244 222
12. HLX S 3 Jun21c @0.45, S 3 Jun17p @0.30 +156 12
13. HLX S 3 Jun20c @0.85, S 3 Jun17p @0.30 +201 124
14. HLX B 7 Jun15p @0.15, S 7 Jun18p @0.50 +133 0
15. HLX B 7 Jun24c @0.10, S 7 Jun21c @0.45 +128 19
16. HLX S 3 Jun24c @0.09, S 3 Jun19p @0.85 +159 104
17. HLX S 3 Jun21c @0.45, S 3 Jun16p @0.15 +111 12
18. HLX S 3 Jun20c @0.85, S 3 Jun16p @0.15 +156 124
19. HLX B 10 Jun16p @0.25, S 10 Jun18p @0.50 +98 0
20. HLX B 5 Jun15p @0.15, S 5 Jun19p @0.85 +168 168
21. HLX S 3 Jun21c @0.45 +100 12
22. HLX S 3 Jun20c @0.85 +145 124
23. HLX S 3 Jun21c @0.45, S 3 Jun15p @0.10 +96 12
24. HLX S 3 Jun20c @0.85, S 3 Jun15p @0.10 +141 124
25. HLX S 4 Jun17p @0.30 +85 0
26. HLX S 4 Jun24c @0.09, S 4 Jun17p @0.30 +84 0
27. HLX S 2 Jun19c @1.35, S 2 Jun18p @0.50 +135 163
28. HLX B 5 Jun24c @0.10, S 5 Jun20c @0.85 +160 203
29. HLX B 7 Jun16p @0.25, S 7 Jun19p @0.85 +175 234
30. HLX S 3 Jun20p @1.30 +146 226
31. HLX S 3 Jun24c @0.09, S 3 Jun20p @1.30 +139 226
32. HLX S 7 Jun16p @0.15 +52 0
33. HLX S 9 Sep15p @0.60 +89 116
34. HLX S 5 Jun24c @0.09, S 5 Jun16p @0.15 +37 0
35. HLX S 2 Jun19c @1.35, S 2 Jun17p @0.30 +95 163
36. HLX B 3 Jun20p @1.40, S 6 Jun19p @0.85 +56 87
37. HLX S 8 Jun15p @0.10 +21 0
38. HLX B 2 Jun17c @2.95, S 4 Jun20c @0.85 +58 105
39. HLX B 3 Jun21p @2.05, S 6 Jun19p @0.85 +82 172
40. HLX S 5 Jun24c @0.09, S 5 Jun15p @0.10 +12 0
41. HLX S 2 Jun19c @1.35 +67 163
42. HLX S 5 Jun24c @0.09 +4 0
43. HLX S 2 Jun19c @1.35, S 2 Jun16p @0.15 +65 163
44. HLX B 10 Jun15p @0.15, S 10 Jun17p @0.30 +2 0
45. HLX S 2 Jun19c @1.35, S 2 Jun15p @0.10 +55 163
46. HLX S 6 Sep16p @0.80 +34 113
47. HLX B 4 Jun15p @0.15, S 4 Jun20p @1.30 +104 299
48. HLX B 2 Jun18c @2.15, S 4 Jun20c @0.85 +19 105
49. HLX B 2 Jun17c @2.95, S 4 Jun19c @1.35 +30 140
50. HLX B 5 Jun24c @0.10, S 5 Jun19c @1.35 +125 399
51. HLX S 4 Sep17p @1.10 +10 102
52. HLX B 3 Jun21p @2.05, S 6 Jun20p @1.30 +45 192
53. HLX B 10 Sep21c @1.60, S 10 Jun20c @0.85 +15 202
54. HLX B 6 Jun16p @0.25, S 6 Jun20p @1.30 +110 446
55. HLX B 11 Jun17p @0.40, S 11 Jun19p @0.80 +72 364
56. HLX B 8 Jun17p @0.40, S 8 Jun20p @1.30 +34 594
05-10-2012: How Are Our Stocks Doing? |
Below is a table reflecting how our Active Stocks List has been doing since the time each stock was first recommended. Older issues on the list have had more time to develop. Please understand that simply buying stocks that are recommended is not how Zenith day trades. We are equally-likely to short a stock as to buy it long, depending upon overall market conditions, news, technical indicators and other factors. Our articles are used to proceed with the notion that the more information we have about the company represented by the stock, the better our trades are apt to be. Still, we believe it is useful to treat all stocks as either buy or sell recommendations, and then gage their subsequent performance based upon initial conclusions. It is quickly seen from this that our performance would have been pretty awful by relying on a "hold" strategy (either buy or sell, depending upon initial recommendation.) Our articles are generally more useful for general information than placing any reliance on Decision Matrix scores. They should be utilized in conjunction with setting target entry and exit prices depending upon immediate market conditions, rather than taking any immediate action.
Orig. Orig. Orig. Cur.
Ticker Company Shares Rec. Score Performance Price Price
ABM ABM Industries Inc. 1,470 B 11 10.38% 20.43 22.55
AGCO AGCO Corporation 615 B 3 -11.03% 48.60 43.24
ASNA Ascena Retail Group Inc. 1,560 B 16 7.18% 19.23 20.61
AZPN Aspen Technology Inc. 1,720 S -7 -25.04% 17.37 21.72
B Barnes Group Inc. 1,250 B 1 4.85% 23.94 25.10
BCO Brink's Company 1,100 B 9 -9.04% 27.09 24.64
CE Celanese Corp. 625 B 5 -3.38% 47.98 46.36
CLS Celestica Inc. 3,550 B 11 -6.76% 8.43 7.86
CPA Copa Holdings SA 480 S -5 -23.83% 62.37 77.23
CXS Crexus Investment Corp. 2,660 B 2 -10.04% 11.25 10.12
CYNO Cynosure, Inc. 1,390 B 6 -2.22% 21.64 21.16
DLX Deluxe Corporation 1,330 B 11 5.05% 22.57 23.71
DTG Dollar Thrifty Automotive 370 B 5 -0.89% 81.22 80.50
ENTG Entegris Inc. 3,200 B 13 -12.65% 9.41 8.22
EPD Enterprise Products Prtnr 580 B 4 -2.90% 51.79 50.29
FL Foot Locker, Inc. 1,060 B 16 2.70% 28.20 28.96
GPOR Gulfport Energy Corp. 1,050 B 4 -24.77% 28.50 21.44
GTAT GT Advanced Technolgoes 3,900 B 4 -22.37% 7.60 5.90
HLX Helix Energy Sol'ns Grp. 1,530 B 6 -0.26% 19.56 19.51
KRO Kronos Worldwide Inc. 1,390 B 17 -7.10% 21.70 20.16
Orig. Orig. Orig. Cur.
Ticker Company Shares Rec. Score Performance Price Price
MGAM Multimedia Games Hldg Co. 2,200 B 6 -4.23% 13.71 13.13
MGM MGM Resorts Int'l Inc. 2,620 S -7 -1.84% 11.44 11.65
MS Morgan Stanley 1,980 S -3 -2.31% 15.14 15.49
NGG National Grid, PLC 570 B 2 3.11% 52.66 54.30
NOR Noranda Aluminum Holding 3,020 B 6 -10.79% 9.92 8.85
OMC Omnicom Group, Inc. 585 B 2 -1.07% 51.20 50.65
OPK Opko Health Inc. 5,780 S -1 12.13% 5.11 4.49
PEIX Pacific Ethanol Inc. 9,999 S -1 -11.24% 0.89 0.99
PMC PharmAmerica Corp. 2,380 B 18 -10.07% 12.61 11.34
RBN Robbins & Myers Inc. 610 B 3 -4.61% 49.25 46.98
RPM RPM International Inc. 1,190 S -1 -4.79% 25.28 26.49
RTK Rentech, Inc. 9,999 S -2 4.85% 2.06 1.96
SGEN Seattle Genetics Inc. 1,650 S -10 -3.64% 18.11 18.77
SPRD Spreadtrum Communications 2,070 S -2 -20.00% 14.50 17.40
SSI Stage Stores Inc. 2,080 B 2 1.80% 14.41 14.67
STMP Stamps.com, Inc. 1,180 B 2 7.76% 25.39 27.36
TMK Torchmark Corporation 630 B 9 -0.13% 47.67 47.61
TSN Tyson Foods, Inc. 1,460 B 7 -5.02% 20.53 19.50
TSO Tesoro Corporation 1,175 B 5 -12.85% 25.53 22.25
VG Vonage Holdings Corp. 9,999 S -1 17.97% 2.17 1.78
XRTX Xyratex, Inc. 1,800 B 15 -19.45% 16.66 13.42
05-10-2012: Have Liberals Stepped Over the Line? |
President Obama's stepping out supporting gay marriages has touched off a firestorm of debate in America. Most Americans get their information from the "media"which now seems to consist of two mainstream networks, both with hidden agendas. Whether it is O'Reilly on Fox News continually interrupting his guests and overshouting them, depriving them of any chance to use his program as a bully pulpit for their beliefs, or whether it is Piers Morgan on CNN acting equally poorly, the gay rights hidden agenda of CNN got a shot in the arm from the President of the U.S. CNN loves gays like Barney Frank and Rachel Maddow in any form that they might take and gives them the lion'.s share of air time.
In what we saw as one of the most disgusting displays of all time, Piers shouted down a Catholic lay person who was making reasonable arguments, giving him all of one minute of continually-interrupted air time to make his points. The gay people, on the other hand, who were interviewed, were given fifteen minutes of comparable uninterrupted air time to expound on their views and "happiness" over the President's decision.
This has immediately spread to Congress and the Air Forces Services Committee where "Christian" representatives from California displayed some shocking lack of knowledge of the Bible in attempting to override an amendment to a bill protecting military chaplains from discrimination for expressing their views on same sex marriage. California, in that regard, certainly has a lot to be ashamed of as a center for anti-Christian atheistic and agnostic views, at least in our opinion.
Gays and lesbians have been typically portrayed as "victims" of discrimination, which indeed they were in the 1950's and '60's, being declared mentally insane. Pseudo science in the form of psychiatrists, psychologists, and social workers were eventually forced to modify their "science" to accommodate political correctness, as gay power spread.
However, in California, we have been treated to the opposite situation, where gays and lesbians have been violent and disruptive to the extent of breaking the law. When California voted on a proposition to define marriage as between a man and a woman, gays stormed the local Mormon temple causing a lot of damage, traffic disruption, and violence not for a few days, but even weeks. At one polling place where one of our traders was a poll worker, a church no less, gays stormed the place and when asked to get off the church property, proclaimed it had become "public property" by virtue of being a polling place, and they proceeded to intimidate voters and shout their views well within the illegal proximity the polls within which campaigning was not allowed. Gays can be almost as violent and disruptive in California as KKK members in poor southern states like Louisiana, Georgia, and Alabama. Make no mistake about it!
There is a standard in the U.S. which began as a Christian nation. Unfortunately, it has become so perverted that a military service person who speaks out against the Koran can be disciplined, but one who defends the Bible can also be disciplined because it is clearly anti-gay. Denominations like Episcopalians and Anglicans who epouse liberal views and pervert the message of Christiantity to the extent of "redefining" or "rewriting" the Bible because it is "obsolete," have a right to their views. But they should not muddle the issue by claiming they are believers in the Bible or true spokespeople for what it stands, hiding under its mantle when in fact they are re-writing it to suit themselves.
Congress did vote in favor of protecting military chaplains from discrimination for expressing views that gay marriage is wrong, as long as they do not use that to attack or tthreaten individuals. But the fact that they needed to do so is an indication that this country is rapidly moving in the wrong direction where anything goes, and the best way to silence your opposition is to shout it down. In the case of the Catholic on Pierce's show, he asked a really legitimate question now in the courts, is it okay for a brother and sister to get married? Although it is currently in the courts, the question was characterized as "stupid." But it was not addressed. The implication was that it is not okay now, but soon it will be.
We agree President Obama's decision to support same sex marriage was unfortunate. No doubt, the "media" will be assaulting Franklin Graham again. But before you decide not to vote for President Obama in the next election, consider this. Ask your Republican friends, "What exactly do you not like about 'Obamacare?'" When you get that check in the mail from your health insurance provider because he spent more than 20% of your health insurance premiums on advertising and executive bonuses, when you find you can get care without regard to pre-existing conditions, when you find your healthcare costs going down, then which part of the Healthcare Reform Act do you not like? Which portion would you throw out? Republicans are strangely silent on this.
The same is true to "over-regulated businesses." Ask Republicans which part of business regulations would they throw out? With the possible exception of oil well drilling in an assault on our environment, so subsidized oil companies can continue to drill more American oil to send overseas where they can get more money for it, which regulations should go? Child labor laws? Wall Street reporting requirements? Minimum wage? Again, Republicans are strangely silent. "We don't like healthcare reform and we don't like business regulations!" cry members of the public, but when asked which parts of the act or which regulations they do not favor, they reply, "We don't know. We're just a'gin it!" Yes, the President set the stage for further decline in American morality, but compared to the alternative, he still looks pretty good to us.
05-12-2012: Sanmina - SCI Corporation (SANM): Guidance Obscures Value
05-10-2012: Helix Energy Solutions Group (HLX): Quick Response & Cleanup
05-06-2012: Omnicom Group, Inc. (OMC): Too Big To Fail?
05-04-2012: Multimedia Games Holding Co., Inc. (MGAM): Exceptional Corporate Governance
04-30-2012: Cynosure, Inc. (CYNO): Laser Skin Care Equipment
04-28-2012: Spreadtrum Communications, Inc. (SPRD): Cell Phone in China
04-22-2012: National Grid, PLC (NGG): The British Are Here
04-18-2012: Pacific Ethanol Inc. (PEIX): Another Reverse Stock Split Needed
04-08-2012: Noranda Aluminum Holding Corp. (NOR): Aluminum Comeback?
04-05-2012: Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group, Inc. (DTG): Hertz, Avis Wanted It for a While
03-31-2012: Vonage Holdings Corporation (VG): Poised for Take-Off?
03-27-2012: AGCO Corporation (AGCO): Time to Buy Farm Equipment?
03-23-2012: Rentech Inc. (RTK): Fertilizer Business Supports Alternate Energ Research
03-20-2012: Entegris, Inc. (ENTG): Asian Economy, American Stock
03-16-2012: Crexus Investment Corporation (CXS): Annaly Controls
03-13-2012: Enterprise Products Partners, L.P. (EDP): Another Enron or Stock of the Year?
03-09-2012: GT Advanced Technologies Inc. (GTAT): Selling Technology Rather Than Panels
03-07-2012: PharmAmerica Corporation (PMC): Omnicare Gone
03-03-2012: Xyratex Ltd. (XRTX): IBM Spinoff
03-02-2012: Ascena Retail Group, Inc. (ASNA): A Rose by any other Name
02-24-2012: RPM International Inc. (RPM): Brand Recognition
02-21-2012: Foot Locker Inc. (FL): Woolworth's Connection
02-16-2012: Robbins & Myers Inc. (RBN): Strong Fundamentals Meet Weak Technicals
02-09-2012: Celestica Inc. (CLS): Under-Valued?
02-01-2012: Tesoro Corporation (TSO): Western U.S. Refiner
01-25-2012: Celanese Corporation (CE): Possible Fuel-Efficient Vehicle Play
01-20-2012: ABM Industries Inc. (ABM): Potential New Growth Areas
01-17-2012: Kronos Worldwide Inc. (KRO): Meaningful Insider Buying
01-13-2012: MGM Resorts International Inc. (MGM): Over Expansion
01-04-2012: Morgan Stanley (MS): Too Big Not To Fail?
12-30-2011: Brink's Company (BCO): Remnant Free at Last from the Raiders
12-21-2011: Gulfport Energy Corporation (GPOR): Shale/Sands Not in Permian Basin or Gulf of Mexico
12-16-2011: Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN): One of the Largest Meat Processors
12-09-2011: Seattle Genetics Inc. (SGEN): Recent Cancer Drug Approval
12-08-2011: Deluxe Corporation (DLX): Check Writing Diminishes
12-04-2011: Opko Health, Inc. (OPK): Massive Insider Buying
11-30-2011: Stamps.com, Inc. (STMP): Dot.com Era Survivor
11-20-2011: Barnes Group Inc. (B): Catalog Supplier of Aerospace Components
11-18-2011: Copa Holdings SA (CPA): Fastest Growing Latin American Airline
Note: Zenith tries to pick only stocks which are shortable, but sometimes stocks appear afterward on the SEC Regulation SHO list of stocks which are not shortable, which is beyond our control.
On some stocks, Zenith may hold more than the number of shares it trades in its inventory. Thus the "short" sale of such a security would technically not be a "short" sale for us and not subject to SEC rules regarding selling securities which are not deliverable. Also, stocks pop on and off the list available for shorting on successive days, so the presence of a stock on the current SHO list doesn't mean it was there at the time it was shorted.
What are the last three entries in the Active Stocks chart list? These represent typical high-, low-, and mid-cap mutual funds to help us gage the tenor of the stock market as a whole.
Trading in stocks involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future profits. Zenith does not sell advice nor does it manage discretionary accounts other than its own. Readers should be aware of the vested interest that all traders / brokers have in encouraging other traders to make the same transactions. No one should follow investment advice blindly. This web site should be used only as a "sounding board" for confirming one's own opinion. Any suggested order placements should be reviewed and reset to fit current market conditions by individual traders.
Recommendations may include trades which have already been made on the same or a previous day,otherwise the issue is placed on a "watch list." Suggested stock trades are based upon an approximate maximum $30,000 capitalization requirement per trade. Zenith's actual trades may be larger.
